Thursday, October 17, 2019

43, or 12,700, or 25,000?

There's a numbers game being played by the Merkel coalition and journalists, and it involves right-wing extremists.

So someone within the Bundestag went and asked the national police.....just how many Germans are on the right-wing extremist 'Constitutional-watch' list?  It's the list that requires the police to monitor on a routine basis, conduct judge-ordered searches as necessary, and ensure the safety of the public.

For the record, there are 688 Islamic extremists on this national watch-list.  This is the newest number from the past month.  So across Germany, if you are considered a major threat, you get 'tagged'.

So back to the right-wing guys....well, there are a total of 43.  Yes, that's it.

A number of political folks are confused because this 12,700 number and 25,000 number get thrown around a lot.

The Interior Ministry will quote documents to say that there are 12,700 right-wing extremists capable of violence.  But the police only say 43 are a threat?  Yes.  These two groups....obviously don't talk much.

The 25,000 number?  Again, the Interior Ministry will say in public that around 25,000 right-wing extremists exist across all of Germany.  But the bulk of these aren't apparently capable of violence?  Yes, that's the key phrase.

So could you have an Islamic right-wing extremist?  Please don't bring this up with a German.  It'd totally confuse them, and it'd irk the Interior Ministry if Ali was on both the Islamic extremist and right-wing extremist list.  It might also get Ali in trouble with both groups.

So who is right, or what is right?

There's another issue to this chat as well.  Each state has it's own situation.  Like NRW (northwestern Germany).....they've got 15 of the 43.  Hessen?  They only have four total.  Hamburg (the state) and the Pflaz?  Zero for both states.

Why suggest 12,700 extremely violent right-wing enthusiasts, when the cops say only 43 are worth viewing?  I might go and suggest that it's a good political topic to throw around, and talk more security....more cops....more protection.  You obviously wouldn't go and hire 10,000 more police nationally.....if the threat for Islamic or right-wing extremists were less than a thousand over the whole nation.

So if I used this rational made-up number of 12,700....shouldn't the same logic hold that 18,000 radical Islamist thugs existing?  Please don't suggest that to a German....they'd freak out.  Or if I use the 25,000 right-wing math situation.....then 38,000 radical Islamic characters exist?  Skip it.

I look and ponder over my situation in Hessen.  A grand total of four guys in all of Hessen who are a threat to me and public safety in terms of far right-wing extremism?  Are they right about this?

Here's the bottom line.....there's more paranoid schizophrenic nutcases out there, than the total Islamic and right-wing extremists combined, and they'd go and kill you only because you wore a Bee-Gees shirt, or hummed the tune 'Poker-Face'.  Just something to think about.

Note: Why such round numbers for the 12,700 or 25,000?  Usually, someone quotes something and it has a round number....it's a high-percentage chance that it's a bogus or fake number.  I hate to suggest such foolishness with the German authorities with this....but it just looks fake.

2 comments:

Daz said...

I'm not stunned that the number is so low. The whole thing seems such a reactionary tale. Although I'm surprised that such a high number are in NRW, and would assume it's a reaction to the NYE incident in Cologne a few years back?

I would have thought higher numbers would be found in the east, where the shitty austerity measures have crushed unemployment and politicians deflect the blame on to refugees so that we don't look at their conduct (or the banks).

On another note, wearing a Bee Gees shirt is a crime against humanity, and rightly punished;)

Schnitzel_Republic said...

On the NRW 'high number', I suspect part of this goes to the larger percentage of migrant/immigrants living there, and the government 'key' that was used for dispersal around the country. NRW, whether right or wrong in this action, ended up with the larger number in their state. Sadly at that same time, with coal production lessening, and factory closings...it has a bigger problem with unemployment. So a fair number of guys sit around and think about who to blame. The NYE incident simply adds onto the top layer.

But you have to remember...to get onto the Constitutional 'watch-list'....you need to present ample evidence and there's a judge somewhere in the middle of each state's efforts to secure public safety. At some point in a public forum deal, I watched a German ask a political figure....once you get on the watch-list....how you get off. The political guy either couldn't answer that, or wouldn't answer it.

I might have leaned toward the east having bigger numbers but you might find more opposition by judges or officials in putting people on a watch-list, feeling retribution might come down the pike (like that comment by the Hessen political figure who triggered attention and eventually ended up shot).

On the Bee Gees shirt, I don't think I've seen anyone wearing one since like 1988, hopefully it stays that way.