Back around five years ago (2015), the EU (with German hype being applied) decided that the refugee crisis in Germany had reached a stage where the Germans couldn't take anymore, but they couldn't refuse anyone. So the Germans walked in and asked the EU to gently 'nudge' (force) all members of the EU to accept the extras.
Now, this leads to several questions. How many were we talking about? No one could clearly say. Would this be a one-time deal? Nope, that was never clear. What happens if the 3,000 refugees sent to your land refuse to stay and leave for Germany four weeks later? No one could say anything about that possibility. Even the Germans couldn't provide any real comfort in the solution or the answer.
In the midst of all of this.....three EU members stood and said 'NO'. Poland, Czech and Hungary. They said (without much consulting of their representatives sitting in the EU) that they reserved the rights of who enters their land. They would hand-pick refugees, or accept none.
Well....the EU said no, that's not right by our ways.
So a legal battle started up. Today, that battle concluded with a EU court saying you can't refuse refugees. Once the EU 'hands' them to you.....you must accept them.
Action by Poland, Czech or Hungary? Nothing yet.
The numbers in discussion? Poland-6,000. Czech-2,000, and Hungary-1,000.
Even if the refugees in Italy or Greece are sent over.....can they be forced to stay there? That's a question that the EU can't really say.
Will there be more refugees in 2021? Well....no one can clearly say that either.
If the three say no? The EU court doesn't really have that much to screw the three countries with....except to deny them EU funds. The odds of this? Personally, I'd give it better than fifty-percent odds.
Reaction then? The three could react and deduct money from going to the EU (in that amount). The EU could then deduct more money....to the point where this game would equal zero money going to the EU or coming from the EU, from the three.
Then?
Some of these EU representatives from the three countries might try to say harsh things over their country, and then find that they've been slammed and declared as non-representatives.
In the end? I don't see the three cooperating much. Let's be further honest here.....there's a minimum of 100,000 refugees in Italy today, and various individuals are picked up weekly in the Med....so the number escalates all the time. Out of Greece? Somewhere in the 40,000 to 50,000 range are there, with more arriving occasionally from Turkey. Given the Turkish dramatics....you might see another 100,000 easily arriving in 2020.
The real game here....if there were one single episode of people involved in a distribution, and you could assemble the data to say there were no-fake 'kids' (adult men pretending to be kids) and the bulk were simply women and real kids.....you might have a better way of convincing folks in the three countries. The odds of this scenario going well.....with the current EU management running the 'show'? Zero percent chance.
But adding the virus drama into this episode? It's just made a screwed-up mess into a five-star mess.
So settle back as intellectuals tell you this woeful tale tonight and for the next week. It's the only non-virus story going on, and worth a fair amount of chatter. The sad thing here....virtually every single one of these refugees has a map in their mind of Germany, and that's the ONLY acceptable place to go. So this entire conversation is mostly wasted chatter.
No comments:
Post a Comment