So for the benefit of American readers.....some blunt truth and facts over Covid-19's shadow affecting Germany.
1. State by state action. Sixteen states make up Germany, and each has run it's own ban rules. Some national standard? A handful of times have occurred where the Federal Health Minister (Spahn) has grouped everyone within a room, and gotten them to agree to a couple of agenda items.
Chancellor Merkel in the middle of things? No. There's been a pep-talk or two, but she has no control over the dynamics of the bans.
The President (Steinmeier) in the middle of things? No. Again, a couple of pep-talks.
So all of this chiefly run by the Premier-Presidents (governors) of the sixteen states and the Federal Health Minister (Spahn)? Yes, that's it. If you went looking for any 'leader' in this whole thing, it's the Premier-President of Bavaria...Markus Soder (now considered the likely replacement of Merkel in the 2021 fall election).
2. Education. Basically, Germany did shut down the school system for approximately eight weeks.
It's hit and miss on the success of this. The kids took home their books, and teachers kept in contact by e-mail with homework assignments. Some kids had gentle pressure applied by the parents to continue self-education. Some parents just left it to the kid.
Most teachers (at least interviewed on TV) will say that they've got a highly divided group with some kids ready for the next grade, and some kids months behind.
This week, the head of the SPD Party (left-of-center) (Esken) said in a public statement that no one should think that things will run normally as the fall semester opens up in the next two to four weeks. Educational authorities are suggesting the same general feeling. If there is a second-wave and another shut-down? German kids will only get further behind.
3. Travel industry. Lufthansa only survives today because of a 9-billion Euro loan. At the end of June, Lufthansa hinted that they will only survive if they go and cut 22k personnel. They are assuming that for the foreseeable future (figure all of 2021)....they will not return to the same number of flights as last year. Of the 736 total aircraft in the Lufthansa inventory....in the early part of July....only around 10-percent were actively flying, the rest were permanently parked at various airports. Their open admission is that in 2021....around half will be put back into operation, and the rest in 2022.
FRAPORT (the Frankfurt Airport)? Terminal Two is completely shutdown. All flights are operating out of Terminal One only. Presently, a lot of their employees (roughly 22k) are on short-work....meaning they work around 40 hours a month, and the government makes up the loss of pay (up to 65 percent presently, to be increased to 80 percent shortly). Pink slips to occur? The general comments are that 3k jobs will be cut in the fall.
Flybe, the Brit regional carrier? Gone, bankrupted in April.
The Bahn? The German railway system is in serious trouble at this point. This past week, they reported 3.7-billion Euro on losses at this point in the year, and expecting the trend to continue through all of 2020. Regionally, the train schedule survives, but if you look at long-distance trains.....seats are mostly empty. Most expect them to approach the government for a grant/loan by the end of 2020.
Hotel woes? Foreign guests are non-existent at this point. Most of the bigger hotels are talking about serious losses for the year, and have already cut personnel to meet the situation. A lot of Germans are refusing to travel beyond the border....which is helping the German hotel industry to recover. But in Spain, Greece and Turkey? The missing guests are making this into a serious problem.
4. Sports.
FC-Kaiserslautern? Bankrupt....papers filed....government take-over of the club.
From the 1st and 2nd league....at least 13 clubs are quietly discussing bankruptcy papers at this point.
The season ended last month only with empty stands (ghost games). The talk is that the new season will start up with ghost games as well.
The TV-contract is the only thing working in their favor.
5. Oktoberfest?
Officially cancelled for 2020. Everyone assumes it'll occur in 2021, but I would be skeptical of that.
Literally hundreds of thousands of Munich folks are affected by this cancellation.....from hotels to taxi drivers.
6. Discos, dance bars and rave clubs?
Shut down entirely across Germany. No state has undone that ban rule.
A letter was sent last month to the Frankfurt city council.....begging for some relief from the local clubs. Most in the city admit that August is the last point of return....they will start bankruptcy papers shortly.
Berlin is reporting some rave clubs abandoning the structures, and having illegal parties in the woods and forests around the city.....in violation of the ban rules.
7. Restaurants and bars. Unless you did take-out....your restaurants in Germany were shutdown for approximately ten weeks. Most are missing a quarter of their income for 2020 at this point. Even if you are open, with the social distancing rule in effect, you've probably given up around 20-percent of your tables for the remainder of 2020.
Bars are forced by the ban rules to limit customers in the building. Most will marginally survive the year, but it'll be a lackluster year for tax revenue.
8. Car industry?
Almost all of the major companies are in short-work mechanisms, and have drafted plans by the end of 2020 to downsize. BMW? It's openly discussed that 16k people will be let go by the end of 2020.
Mercedes at the very beginning of 2020, before Covid-19 even arrived, was openly discussing the dismissal of 10k jobs.
9. Sales shops? The people who track the trend are suggesting that one out of each six shops in Germany will be closed or bankrupted by the end of 2020.
10. Grocery, drug and home-improvement shops? They are the ONLY shops in Germany unaffected by the Covid-19 virus. All were allowed to continue business, with only limited bans.
11. Current unemployment? 6.4-percent. However, it does not consider the effect of short-work, and the likely dismissal of a half-million employees by the beginning of 2021. The rate will likely rise to 10-plus percent after Christmas.
The worst has passed? I would suggest that the short-work business has hidden the problems, and it's likely in the winter period that you really start to see dramatic problems with the economy, with recession likely to continue through all of 2020.
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