NATO

 I sat this morning and watched around 10 minutes of hype/chatter from Henry Kissinger, talking at the World Economic Forum....that the Ukraine should be allowed to join NATO.

I have generally mixed feelings over this.  

For a number of years....NATO was around sixteen members.  Presently, they are at 30 members.

The whole emphasis or logic to the organization, from day one....was that the one and only threat was the Soviet Union, or Russia. In this combined structure....there would never be a war because the Russians understood the combined threat.  At least, that was the logic.

Trying to find 'friends' of Russia today, who would agree to a military-counter-relationship?  Well....everyone in this potential group has moved up a step or two because of capitalism.  You can go into various neighbors of Russia....to find the middle-class fairly happy, and not exactly thrilled over any military 'adventures'.

As for the Ukraine 'now' joining NATO?  You'd just antagonize Russia (particularly Putin and his 'crew') even more.  As bad as it currently is....within Russia....they'd slip to the next level of propaganda.....saying it's us-versus-them. 

If I were writing a script for the next couple of months?  Russia will attempt some spring offensive, with a huge lack of tanks/APCs, and the offensive will show little to no pay-back....except for more dead Russian men.  Eventually, some idiot will suggest that a Russian fall-offensive is now in the works.....with another 150,000 fake reservists called to active duty.

On equipment losses, by the time you consider used-up artillery, limited bullets/rockets/missiles, lost fuel tankers, destroyed fighters and helicopters, and the tremendous loss of tanks and armored personnel carriers....you have no real offensive capability.  Even if Russia (Putin) wanted to admit this....the recovery stage to rebuild....would amount to twenty years and a vast amount of the GDP for that two decades.  

The right position is simply provide a limited amount of equipment to Ukraine, and simply play out the clock.  Eventually....Russia will not exist as a single unified country, and the necessity for NATO to exist....will finally be settled.