Wednesday, June 7, 2017

German Election Update

INSA is a German organization that does polling reviews.  Generally, they are very reliable at the numbers business.  Today, the newest poll came out for the September election.

Merkel and the CDU are holding well at 38-percent.

The SPD has slipped down to 23-percent.  Hard to figure where all the hyped-up business went from January when they were up to around 32-percent.  With three months left?  I hate to suggest it but with the trend's possible that that go as low as 20-percent in this election.  Truly a low point for the party out of the past two decades.

The Greens are sitting marginally at 7-percent.  Last year, they were thinking 11-to-12 percent in this election.  I think they stumbled around and just missed on messaging with the independent voters who might go their way.

The Linke Party is at 11-percent currently, and probably near the normal trend.  Nothing gained but nothing lost.

The AfD Party?  Sitting at 8-percent and not likely to move up or down.  Unless mass migration episodes develop over the remaining three months prior to the election....I don't see any more frustration votes arriving for them.

Finally, the FDP folks.  They are sitting on nine percent, and there's some belief that they might still be able to pick up one or two more before the election.  I think disgruntled Green and SPD voters are mostly looking at the FDP.

What can occur to change this election over the last three months?  Not much.  Maybe some Erdogan game in the mix.  Maybe some immigration problems.  But I think at this point that Merkel has crafted a fairly easy win.  Schulz?  There was a ton of enthusiasm in the first 30 days of his campaign, and then it just started to evaporate.....week by week.

My prediction is that Merkel wins, and the coalition government will be CDU-CSU-FDP.  For the SPD, they need to go and let a dozen of their more senior folks go, and hunt out youth and new faces for the 2021 election.  The Greens need a better message or rebuild the party.

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