Saturday, June 3, 2017

TTIP Back?

One of the big highlights of the Obama legend was supposed to be the passage by both the US and the EU over TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership).  For several years, two teams met and quietly worked on the deal.  It would basically open up new markets and ensure limited or zero tariffs on imports.

It should be noted that the EU was doing the talking for the 28 nations.  A lot of political folks (outside of the EU) were not paying much attention.

At some point in 2015, folks got chatty.  What was going into the document....who would benefit?  Some were union people within Europe....some were business leaders....some were anti-capitalism enthusiasts.

The Germans had a room within the Bundestag where you could walk in and read the secret documentation.  To be honest, most of this revolved around commerce and a large percentage of the people reading the material....weren't that well-versed in the deal-making part of the game.

Negativity, particularly among the Germans....started up.  By the end of 2015, it's safe to say that TTIP was 'limp'....unable to move ahead.  Individual groups in the 28 member states....made the work of the EU group impossible.

So, Trump has arrived and discovered that his idea of getting individual states to settle on new trade agreements is going nowhere.....they point back to the EU and say ONLY they can sign the trade agreements.  So Trump had a chat with the EU about this.  Their interest?  After the last was bad enough, but with the negative-Trump-enthusiasm as it is.....they have zero interest.

The odds of TTIP starting back up?  There would have to be some meeting of the 'unicorns' of Europe where they all agree that something has to occur of a magical nature, and that they will just overlook the whole past episode of failure.

The script for this is just laying there.....waste a year or two talking.....let some of the facts get out.....let the anti-TTIP people rise again.....terminate the trade talks once again. Repeat.  Repeat.  Repeat.

At some point, you need to hold a carrot out for the EU and the unicorn crowd, along with the anti-TTIP crowd....that some massive changes are going to occur and your products won't be sold as easily.  This type of behavior with President Obama or Bush?  Zero.  With Trump?  He's probably the only person around who could create a speedbump device that would force the EU to step in and actually get involved and desire a final conclusion.

No comments: