While I'm not leaning for, or hyping up any votes for the guy.....I tend to think after this CDU Party meeting in Hamburg, and AKK's 'win'.....she will be the CDU Chancellor candidate in 2021. I don't think she has the charisma or voter-support to win such an election with the party. Yes, I'm hinting that the combined CDU-CSU vote....might be around 24-percent, which would be a fairly dynamic drop.
So my prediction goes to the Green Party.....that they will put up Robert Habeck as the Chancellor candidate, and somehow find 25 to 28 percent of the national vote.....enough to win. Who is Habeck? My ten observations:
1. He turns fifty next year.
2. He got noticed around 2009 up in the extreme north of Germany.....as a major local party member. Every year or two, he's taken a step up. People like his style (low confrontation).
3. He has a doctorate degree in philosophy.
4. In the 2017 national election.....he was in the running as the Green Chancellor candidate....but got edged out at the last minute.
5. He was a commissioner on a group which headed up nuclear waste material, and helped to approve the export of some waste to Sweden....which drew negativity and criticism by the bulk of Greens for taking that position.
6. He's written a couple of books...some leveled at kids....some at just plain fictional literature. He's not a historian type, if you were wondering.
7. He speaks German and Danish (not English).
8. He's married and his wife is a writer.
9. In forums and debates.....he does well, but there are people better than him. He can be a spirited talker, and show some charisma.
10. In terms of positions like mayor, or Premier-President? No...nothing. That weakness of leadership challenges does stand as something lacking.
Why do I suggest him instead of some SPD figure? Look....the SPD is going through a disintegration phase, with a lot of negativity about their positions, their take on jobs and the economy, and on immigration.
I, more or less, predict that the SPD will do lousy in 2021 (maybe in the 14-percent range), with the AfD getting near 18-percent, and the Greens barely edging out the CDU-CSU combo. For better or worse, I think the Germans will get Robert Habeck for four years, and come to regret the election, but blame this on lousy choices from all the parties.
No comments:
Post a Comment