Tuesday, December 4, 2018

CDU Political Chatter

Last night, ARD (public TV in Germany, Channel One) featured roughly 2.5 hours of documentary news and forum chat over the CDU 'battle' to replace Merkel as head of the CDU Party.  A major topic for most Germans?  Not so much, but it more or less will indicate who the likely next Chancellor will be after 2021's election.

So this started at 8:15 PM with a 45-minute documentary piece entitled 'Der Machtkampf'.  You can go to the site and for the next week or two....review the piece (all in German).  It's very detailed and examines the history on the CDU process. 

The second piece came on at 9:00 PM, Hart Aber Fair, with a live chat....five guests with one moderator.  The video feed is there for you to follow the piece.....all in German of course. 

For the most part, Jens Spahn is ruled out (his time has yet to come).  So it's a two-person race.

Is it guaranteed that one of these two will be the next Chancellor after the 2021 election?  No.  There are various scenarios where the SPD might win, or even the Green Party.

This vote?  It's limited to the national membership of the CDU Party. 

Interest of regular citizens?  I would suggest that people are following the story but most just want an idea of who follows Merkel.  If you use a poll from spring of 2017....around two-thirds of German society want a new leadership situation.  Some might go and suggest that they want some dramatic person like Kohl or Schmidt to arrive on the scene....that the Merkel years have been missing that dynamic leadership. 

The one thing that you might take from the 2.5 hour news and chat piece laid out....the 500-pound AfD guerrilla still sits in the room, and actively affects politics.  The EU election in 2019, with the three German state elections (all in the east)?  All affected by the AfD.  Once this immigration negativity started up....the Bundestag players (not just the CDU) were all unwittingly helping to bring the Frankenstein-like political creature into being, and are forced to sit there with various scenarios affecting their future in elections. 

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