Monday, December 17, 2018

Polling Story

Focus, the German news magazine, had an interesting polling story today.

For those who didn't realize it.....2019 is a curious election year for Germans.  In May, there's the EU election (nationally), and toward fall....there are three state elections (all in the eastern end of Germany). 

So the poll story says that if the election is held now.....within the eastern side of Germany....the SPD Party (left of center) would only get around 8-percent of the eligible voters.

For the CDU, it's near 29-percent, the AfD is at 26-percent, with the Linke Party at 16-percent.  The Greens are at the end of the spectrum.....just one point ahead of the SPD....at 9-percent.

What does this suggest?  If the trend stays at this level....it's a terrible year for the SPD, and could mean another major leadership change by the end of 2019.  The shocker for some is that the AfD is fairly close to the CDU.....without much campaigning going on, and they might actually be able to pull two or three points extra.....winning in these three states.  Partnering into a coalition?  Well....NO.  That's one of the major problems with the AfD.....they can't find another party which would be willing to partner. 

What this story tends to say is that the SPD is on a spiral right now and really needs some boost to occur before the 2021 national election.

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