How I Would Stack the 2021 German Chancellor Race

We are three years away from the next German national election.  In roughly two years....the smoke will clear and the six significant parties will lay out their primary candidates.  This is view of who is likely the candidates to replace Chancellor Merkel:

CDU/CSU: Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK) or Fredrich Merz

SPD: Olaf Scholz (currently Vice-Chancellor/Finance Minister)

Green Party: Robert Habeck

FDP: Christian Lindner

Linke Party: Katja Kipping  or Bernd Riexinger

AfD Party: Jorge Meuthen

I pick this crowd mostly because of the tone of public attention going on and the increased number of appearances they've made in the past six months.

The problems in replacing Merkel?  Well....you can start with the SPD's Scholz and look over his period as Hamburg mayor being something you'd go and brag about (the G-20 riot episode probably anchored him down in a negative light).  He's not that dynamic of a speaker and I don't think he really captivates the typical average working-class German.

AKK?  A mirror image of Merkel.  Too many Germans want something different.   Merz might attract a bigger crowd, but I suspect that the peak level of CDU votes has already occurred and either of these two will be limited to a max of 28-percent of the vote.

Habeck of the Greens?  He's on some trend episode and captivates public attention.  I could see him moving up to the 24-to-28 percent point. 

Lindner, Kipping or Riexinger?  They just aren't 'vote-magnets'.  They can probably get their party (FDP or Linke) up to around eight to ten percent at best.

So you come to Meuthen of the AfD.  In debates, he does well.  But this is a party that has probably peaked out at around 16-percent of the national vote.  Being a one-topic party is a negative, and if you could go two years without any serious migrant confrontational episode.....the numbers would slide. 

So yeah, I'm suggesting a fairly close race with the Habeck of the Greens making a serious challenge, the SPD really in a marginal election, and the CDU not really capable of finding a true-replacement for Merkel.  You could very well see the Habeck as Chancellor in 2021, and the SPD as a very junior-junior party of the coalition....perhaps requiring a third member to make it work.