New Covid Ban Rules?

 Well....after that big meeting today, no federal understanding.  You have to go state by state.

In my state of Hessen....if you are unvaxed, you can only meet people in some public setting (parking lot, park, on the street).  In retail entry, you have to be 2G (Recovered or vaxed-up).  If you run a restaurant or pub....even the owners/cooks/waiters....have to wear a mask.  These rules run from Sunday to the 23rd of December.

Interference on church services?  None.

Schools run as normal, with testing done.  

Planning on another state?  Different rules and you need to look at their web pages.

I noticed in the Saarland....if you ran a club, disco or music hall....it's closed until Christmas week.  

In the state of Saxony, you can only leave the apartment/house without a vaccination status.....if you have urgent business (expect the cops to stop you and ask questions).

Germany and Covid: 30 Nov 2021

 1.  One particular state in Austria (Voralberg) announced that the come 1 Feb 2022.....teachers who are not fully vaccinated....are to be terminated.  So a second letter came out from the 150 teachers in this situation (non-vax)....say they will be terminated.  Putting the state into a difficult position?  Maybe for a couple of weeks, they can arrange some alternate teaching situation, but I'd take a guess that for these kids from this state....their school-year is crapped out at that point.

2.  Starting Saturday in Hamburg....non-vax people are not to be allowed in retail stores (they aren't talking pharmacy or grocery operations).  Affecting local retail?  No one says much, but lets be honest here.....if you needed something from a regular retail or electronics shop....you'd order it, and just say 'screw' the local retail stores/shops.  Lost revenue?  Go figure at least 20-percent, but the on-line sales will soar....cutting out the brick-and-mortar shops. Another part of this story, if you think about it.....you don't have to shop within the city limits of Hamburg....you can always drive 40 km away and find a brick-and-mortar non-Hamburg shop to serve you.  

3.  Economic stumble?  If you follow the Ifo folks (forecasting ups and downs).....they've changed their feeling for the German economy....there was supposed to be a 2.4-percent growth for this year.  The Ifo folks have dismissed that prediction. The word stagnant is now used.

4.  Saxony (the state) says out of every forty residents presently....one has Covid.

Just An Odd Thing

 Our hyped-up new Covid virus....Omikron....was noted to be found in a German (39 years old) in Saxony.  Reported in the AM today.  

So here's the curious thing....he hasn't been out of the country, nor has he been in contact with anyone who was out of the country (least he says that).

Explaining this?  Nearly impossible.

My humble guess?  There's probably some Saxony resident who spent a week or two in South Africa, and returned two weeks ago.  Somewhere on a bus, or train, or perhaps the two just passing on the street....the new guy got the Omikron from the traveler.  It might have even been at some McDonalds or just fueling up a car at a gas station.

Worrying the feds and state government of Saxony?  No doubt.  

But here's the thing....the traveler....he's yet to be tested or found.  Symptoms?  I'm guessing he's showing few if any symptoms, and just sees it as a regular flu situation.  Without the loss of smell/taste....his doctor is probably telling him that he doesn't have Covid.  

The odds that forty other people will come up shortly from Saxony with Omikron?  it's best to just keep quiet and not suggest that.  

Court Action

 So the German Constitutional Court stood up this morning, and said over the legal complaints lodged about federal/state Covid rules.....that they were legal and within the framework of the Constitution.  'Compatible' was the word used

School closing orders from back in the spring?  Legal.

'Green' light is what I'd say at this point....the court is telling Scholz that the Bundestag can put into effect any measure to 'fix' Covid.

Public accepting this?  Majority will accept....probably 10-to-15 percent will still be anti-ban.

What Was BTX in German History?

 Toward the late 1970s.....British developers had this idea revolving around 'text email'.  Development popped up around 1982, and by 1983....the British postal authorities had shown the project to the German postal folks.

So in 1983....the West German Post made a decision to market this 'box'.  You'd come in, and sign for a subscription.  Weeks later....a Post guy would arrive and hook up a box to your phone and run a cable to your TV.  

BTX or 'Bildschirmtext' was the box.

You had an address, and could message people who also had a box (BTX) and address.  Pictures to share?  No, the early version didn't allow for that....it was purely text.  

A fee to each text sent?  Yeah, and this went up and down....depending upon the carrier (could be .01 DM or up to 9.99 DM).  

Number of West Germans who had a box?  Unknown, and rarely discussed.  Most people suggest that it was the age 20 to 40 crowd that had them, and that it was never that popular.  The crowd who seemed most connected to it?  Investors....they got daily updates from their broker.  

In the mid-1990s....internet started to arrive, and by 2000....BTX was 'dying'.  In 2001, it was halted as a supported product.

If you bring it up today?  It's mostly Germans over the age of forty who remember the 'toy'.   

Carsten Breuer: Get Used To The Name

 The chatter this morning is that Chancellor-to-be Scholz (incoming Chancellor) has pushed the agenda to have a 'committee' to run a daily Covid-emergency-team.  They are to be advisers to Scholz and the cabinet (SPD-Greens-FDP).

Something that Merkel didn't have?  Well....yeah.  I could understand the first six months of reaction in Germany being what it is....but you needed to have a couple of folks who only focus on the reactions/consequences of the country.

Who'll head the committee?  Hype this morning is Major General Breuer, of the German Army.

Qualified?  If you browse around....he's probably got a five-page resume of jobs and accomplishments.  

Degree background?  Pedagogy, the study of taking education and tasks....to smooth out the rough edges of juveniles, teens and young people. 

I'd probably suggest that for the next two years....this guy will probably help to avoid chaos, and get a more developed planning process for handling Covid in Germany.  

New Incoming Health Minister Yet To Be Named?

 Yes.  There's around a dozen cabinet posts named so far by the SPD-Green-FDP coalition group.  Health Minister?  Still nameless.  

Ten years ago, it would have been the least known cabinet member of a government.  You could have asked a hundred Germans, and probably fewer than 10-percent could readily name the person.  Today, I would imagine 90-to-95 percent can name Jens Spahn (current head).

Likely guy to get the new job.....Karl Lauterbach (Doctor).  But it's not guaranteed.  Why?  Well....personality-wise, he's not your typical political type.

Lauterbach is highly educated, and actually does have some better than a 3 x 5 inch index card for a resume.

On debate skills....he's very capable, but he also tends to rub people the wrong way. 

Even if he's announced as the Health Minister....I'd go and suggest he'll be lucky to last two years until he says something that gets people riled up.  With the betting crowd, he's likely to be on the list as the first person to resign from his position.

Don't get me wrong....he is an extremely bright/clever guy....very capable for the job.  It's just that he goes off to talking, and pushes some extreme health views....that probably irritate a fair number of people.  If your desire was to find the perfect 'Doctor Doom'.....he fits the position.  

Is There Anything Written By the Brothers Grimm 'Safe' To Read?

 Well....first, if you count them up...the two German brothers went and assembled around 200-odd stories that they'd heard, and 'word-smithed' their way to a publication.  If you browse around today.....the complete works go up to around 600 pages.

So for a fragile person (teenager, juvenile, or college student)....I'd generally say that virtually all of the stories contain some element of lusty business, danger, death, bloodshed, animals being killed, and graphic violence.  I'm generally talking about their version....not the cleaned-up versions of the past hundred-odd years.

Example?  The 1812 version of Rapunzel....has a bit of chatter that relates to lusty sex and ending up pregnant after a couple of days.  

The Robber-Bridegroom?  The original version was full of direct violence and has a suggestive rape scene.

The original evil queen in Snow White?  Let's just say her demise is pretty harsh and involves some heated iron shoes.

The character Frau Trude?  It's best not to bring her up.

The kids around 1820.....being more capable of handling life than the kids of today?  No doubt.

Whether the literature professors even grasp this?  I doubt it.  

Emergecy Summit For Tomorrow (Tuesday)?

 Yes.  Merkel, Scholz, sixteen state Premier-Presidents and the Federal folks....on a Covid chat.

Lot of hype going on this afternoon.  

Shutdown?  I'd give it a 75-percent chance of happening.

Christmas markets shutdown?  I would imagine by the 10th of December....they will all be shutdown.  

Curfew?  Very possible.

Kinda Funny

The enforcement side of the 2G/3G business falls to the police to hype up enforcement and ask for documentation.  So Focus brought up this topic in the AM today.

So in Berlin, as enforcement went out.....someone finally asked the police to show their 2G or 3G situation.

Well....the truth is now told....some Berlin police are NOT recovered, not vaccinated, and weren't having any proof of their test.  So, the various members of the police aren't 2G/3G...yet trying to enforce the city or state regulation?  Yeah.

Guilty of something?  No, when you go and read the 2G/3G regulations on Covid....they pertain to bars, pubs, cafes and restaurants....not the police. 

I would imagine as they write the summons to appear in front of a judge....something is going to happen as the owner/operator asks the judge is he is 2G/3G, or if the police who wrote the summons is compliant.

The whole thing now?  I'd say there's a mess brewing here.

A Logistics Mess Developing

 N-24 news had this brief to report this AM.....over truckers in Germany.

There are a fair number of truck movements in the country....being accomplished by non-German drivers (most out of eastern Europe).

So here's the thing....most of them got the Russian vaccine (Sputnik).  The German government has NOT recognized the Russian vaccine as being a quality product.

A fair number of depots and business receiving operations are now asking questions, and want the delivery folks to be German-recognized vaxed.

Fixing this by testing folks?  You can do this....but it's adding time and effort to deliveries.

Chances that the state or federal government will suddenly order things....to screw up logistics and trigger a delay on deliveries?  Well....no one is suggesting this....yet.  But you can sense that people are now asking questions.  

Germany and Covid: 29 Nov 2021

 1.  There's a grocery chain in my region that announced over the weekend....to enter, you now must be 3G (vaxed-up, recovered, or tested).  First grocery to make that a standard.  The rest have no 'G' requirements.  Zero proof that Covid is passing around via grocery stores, if you curious about factual information. 

2.  7-day occurrence level per 100,000: 446 (still hefty).

3.  Focus reports from Amsterdam....from that episode on Friday where the sixty-odd people were identified coming out of South Africa, with the new Covid variant.....a Spaniard and a Portuguese, attempted to sneak out of the country (ordered into a quarantine hotel at the airport).  They'd actually made it back into the airport and were physically on a airplane to Spain....having boarded.  Now?  Cops involved, and there's likely to be charges (endangering the public is mentioned)....you could be talking about real jail-time after their quarantine now ends.

4.   There is chatter that a state-federal meeting will be pushed to this week, instead of the 9th of December.....to bring several major changes. 

On the list?  National shutdown of Christmas markets remaining, major sports events turning back into ghost-matches (meaning no fans in the stadiums....even vax'ed ones), more restrictions for non-vax people, and 2G-plus being implemented (meaning even if you are recovered or vaxed-up, you have to do a test to show evidence).

The Christmas market crowd getting highly frustrated?  It's just not that big of crowds showing up (2G is stressed now).  Total loss on investments and man-hours.

Is There a French Version of Trump?

 Well....the story goes this way....involving Eric Zemmour (63 years old).  Zemmour over the years....has been a journalist/editor, that leans to the right (at least as far as French would lean). For a period of roughly 3 years, he's run a daily show that gives him a chance to talk, and what he says....is highly valued by the French people at present.

If you went down the list that a French Trump would say.....it's pretty close to a '10' on Zemmour.  

There's a French Presidential election slated for 10 April 2022.  Call it the first primary (because no one typically gets 50-percent of the vote).  

Currently, he's not in the running....mostly because he's in a court case for saying something that was regarded as racist. 

If he announces a run?  Well....here's the thing, if you count up the present crew of people running....it's around a two dozen folks (probably one-third of them marginally at one-percent, I admit). 

Macron presently? He's at 25 to 27 percent of the polling.  It's really not that great.

If Zemmour suddenly showed up and created his own party?  In a matter of ten days....Zemmour would probably take around 10-percent of the vote, and might be able to clobber his way to second-place.  That would bring us to the 24th of April....the second election between the number one and two candidates.  

The fact that Zemmour never held office?  Well....that used to be something that would bother the majority of the French, but along came this guy Macron....who also never held office.  

Does Zemmour even need much money to run?  That's another topic....he's been seen via the TV program on a constant basis....all he really needs is use of social media.  If social media were to declare him racist and ban him?  Well....it sounds a lot like Trump....doesn't it?

Maybe Zemmour decides not to run?  That's entirely possible. 

This whole court case drawing public attention?  Yes.

Zemmour draws more polling numbers than Le Pen?  Yes.  

At the very least, Zemmour will be the likely number one or two of the 11 April primary.

So, it's just an episode you might want to watch in the future. 

Tesla

 I noticed some short piece reported in Automobilwoche today....Tesla now says that they will start production at the Grünheide factory in the next four weeks (not summer of 2022).

No one is saying full-up production....that the factory will start the line.  

I think a lot of people are shocked that anti-commerce folks didn't shut down the construction of the factory and that things seem to be on schedule.  Major success for eastern side of the country.  

The Odds on Survival For the New SPD-Green-FDP Government?

 The next federal election is figured to be September of 2025.

Could it be earlier?  Yes.  You would require a falling-out of the SPD-Green-FDP government. 

Odds on this?  In a normal situation over the past fifty years....most people would generally put low odds (less than a 5-percent chance)..

In this mess....I'd actually put the odds way up to around 50-percent that a collapse will occur.  The chief problem is the relationship between the FDP and Greens.

Will Scholz (as Chancellor) be worried over this?  I would imagine something will pop-up every couple of months to remind him how fragile things are.

Does any of this benefit the CDU-CSU?  No.  For each month that the FDP demonstrates itself....it's adding a point that might have gone to the CDU-CSU.  In eighteen months....the FDP might well be capable of getting a quarter of the normal CDU-CSU voters to move their votes to the FDP.

So don't be shocked if a falling out does occur.  

Traveling Around Germany As a Covid Patient?

 Well....this takes some explaining.

N-TV picked up the topic today and I'll reference them.

So hospitals around Bavaria and Saxony (eastern region) are reaching capacity. The German Air Force?  It's been drawn in....to move patients.

From Bavaria....24 folks got picked up on Saturday and moved.  Six more were to be moved today.  Locations getting people?  NRW (far NW state) and to a smaller extent....Hamburg.

Using their air-ambulance?  That was the plan.

The deal involved?  These are noted as 'exceptional cases' (I figure they mean ICU/ventilator folks).

Here's the thing....there are generally x-number of ventilators around, and no one appears wanting to move these....so in the German logic...it makes more sense to pack the patient up and move them.  Trying to do this by vehicle?  No one is going to drive for ten hours across Germany to deliver a patient to an alternate hospital. 

Now, you can imagine a Bavarian guy laying there....pretty much in a weaken state, having a bad mental deal and some nurse says.....we gotta move you, and you think she means maybe from this floor to another, or maybe to a hospital 45 minutes away.  So while dozing....there's some moving/shaking going on....an ambulance ride to some airport.....a feeling of taking off, and waking up hours later....to be in Hamburg.  Yes, a 80-minute flight away.  

How you handle things when the hospitalization is over?  Well....I doubt if the government brings you back home, and this might be a pretty good adventure.  

How Confusing is Saxony and Lower Saxony as States in Germany?

 Ok, for reference:

Saxony is the state around Chemnitz and Dresden....over on the far right (eastern) side of Germany.

Lower Saxony is the state around Bremen (the state-city), Hamburg (the state-city)....on the far northwestern end of the country.  

Yes, two totally separate states, and they don't physically connect.  

It is easy to get confused on the two.

Helper Bonus?

 There's chatter/rumors going on with the new SPD-Green-FDP German government.....that the Ministry of Labor (led by the SPD), will have a system developed where if you are acting as a 'helper' for a relative/friend, and covering in-home situations....you might be qualified to get up to 2,000 Euro a month ($2,400 US).

The key words are still being worked out, and that 2k Euro might only go to a full-time....40 hours a week situation.  

Covid Polling

 I looked at Focus this morning.

The hype for a shutdown of Germany?  Polls done.....saying three out of four Germans expect a shutdown now.  Just over 50-percent say it's a must-do situation.  One out of three Germans say shutting down is not a 'answer'.

What'll happen?  There's a face-to-face meeting of the state leadership across the country, and the federal folks in about 12 days.  

I expect three things to come out of this meeting (with Scholz as Chancellor likely at that point):

1.  Certain professions (medical and caretaker) will be mandated in some legal way to get the vax, or be 'let-go'.  Chaos will follow this trend.

2.  I expect a state-by-state shutdown to occur....some with curfew....some without.  All of this will be geared to a four-week situation, and renewed if necessary.

3.  I expect some magic number to be assigned for the 7-day incidence rate, and schools being open.  State-by-state.....it'll be different.  

Throttling down Christmas?  Well....how else can they handle this?  But it lays out the 2022 schedule and you rest assured....all of this will repeat again.  

Amsterdam Story Over Omikron

 I followed the Amsterdam airport episode with the 600-odd people who flew in from South Africa, and were mandated to test before being allowed 'out'.

So Focus talked about this 'event', and you just sit there amazed.

Fear strike the medical authorities and they went to management this (in a crappy fashion).

So the 600-odd people were led into a large room, and told to wait....till the testing folks arrived.  Several hours (four) passed.

Then testing started.  

Acceptable hygienic situation?  NO.

Someone described the scene....masks were marginally enforced.  Some wore them correctly....some just over the mouth.

This was a unventilated room, in case you were wondering....so the air was breathed upon, and stayed there for others to breathe.  

It's quiet possible that folks got off their plane (two plane groups), and wandered into the hall, not yet having Covid-Omikron.  But thanks to the airport folks and medical folks.....in that four hour period....they were able to get Omikron while waiting.  

Crapped-up situation?  No doubt.  What's funny here.....you could have one single family who bumped into someone at the airport in South Africa....maybe at a restaurant, or maybe at some ticket-desk, or even in the premier-lounge area.....who gave that one family the virus.  They flew into Amsterdam, crowded up with the six-hundred and passed the virus around to sixty-odd others while waiting.

It's the type of mess you'd write as a script for Monty Python, and just shake your head over.  

So everything is finished, with the sixty identified?  Well....NO.  My humble guess, from the 550-odd people remaining now who were deemed 'safe'.....over the next couple of days....probably another hundred of them will test and be found positive with Omikron.  By the time you count up the taxi-drivers, hotel personnel, others along the way.....that group probably infected another three-hundred.  

Panic-Attack Syndrome

 I watched a German news piece around two weeks ago, and the hype was this group of Germans, who have been drawn into a rehab-like facility for 'fear' of Covid.  

Some had actual Covid....got over it, and out of the end-stage....they generated up some form of extreme fear (anxiety)....that they'd get it again.  They were fearful of public situations....standing around in some  public situation (like a bus/train), and generating fear whenever they left the house.  They seemed to be happy within the house....with zero threat.

But other individuals at this rehab-like facility....hadn't had Covid yet.  They were on a similar anxiety or panic-attack feeling.  

Via Friday night....if you watched ARD or ZDF (the two public TV networks)....you probably got an extreme dose of Omikron worry.  Just off ARD, there probably was at least 30 minutes of continual chatter over Omikron, with 'Doctor Doom #1', 'Doctor Doom #2' and 'Doctor Doom #3'.

All of this brings me to three observations:

1.  There's probably a mathematical formula existing now....if you generate x-amount of fear-porn news on topic-X.....you create four anxiety-drive people out of thin air.  How you get rid of the four?  Unknown.   

2.  This anxiety/panic-attack crowd now includes teenagers and juveniles.  They were already bothered by the 'save-the-Earth-crowd'....so it just adds more burden to their little world. 

3.  Once you reach maximum capacity for handling all this stress....then what?  You really don't need three million Germans walking around in some aggravated state or semi-panic-attack mode.  

At some point on my Friday walk in the Christmas market.....you could see individuals who'd planted themselves at some point and just gazing at the market, the crowd, and keeping a fair distance.  They seemed like they were trying to recognize the scene and get some 'feel-good' out of this, but the fear of getting Covid probably was a problem.   

Going into 2022 with this?  

Germany and Covid: 28 Nov 2021

 1.  This new Covid-variant (Omikron) is apparently already in my German state of Hessen.  Regional public TV (HR) reports this. 

Some gal who passed the PCR test to leave South Africa...flew up....had a symptom or two within 24 hours.  Confirmed by Germans, and now in home-quarantine.

If you go by Dutch news....several hundred folks flew back into the Netherlands, from South Africa, and out of this group....they were all forced for another test....confirming 60-odd people had the infection.  

It'd make me wonder if they all (including the German lady) were infected within the airport....maybe they all hung out in the duty-free shop or something.  

One Brit news group reports no loss of smell or taste associated with Omikron....just extreme exhaustion/run-down feeling.  It does appear to transmit more easily.

2.  7-day incidence rate at 446.

3.  Three-quarters of German hospitals now in some type of emergency management situation.  Normal operations are suspended. N-TV reports this.  

4.  Lot of hostility brewing with the folks running Christmas market operations.  Discussion started up among them....they want compensation by local governments.  2G mandate has torn up any profitability.  Going to be lawsuits out of this, but I doubt if city governments can be held responsible.  Will seriously threaten planning for 2022 Christmas period. 

5.  On the books....once vax'ed-up....your certificate by the Germans says it's 'good' for one year (365 days).  Well....there is an EU agenda underway to reshape all of the 'good' chatter, and make it nine-months.  If you gaze at Spahn (the Health Minister)....he's discussing an even lesser 'good' period.  Why any of this matters?  To get the bulk of German society vax'ed-up....it's like herding cattle and requires three to four months.  

6.  The 'security' at these Christmas markets?  It's an amusing thing looking at how it works in Wiesbaden.  Control is established at a entry point.....people wanting to see evidence of your vax or recovered status.  Hire-up security?  Yeah....would appear to be mostly all Turks/Syrians/Iraqis....in some private security organization contracted by the city.  Would be a scene for a German version of Monty Python....'your papers, please'.  

Once you stand there....making it past the entry check-in....you just feel like you might be in some infection zone, and whatever the Gluhwein appeal was.....your anxiousness is doubling every five minutes ('it ain't safe').  It reminds me of Alabama verbiage as a kid.....if it feels unsafe, maybe you ought not be there.  So you guzzle the Gluhwein as quickly as possible and then escape.  

With all these German Doctor 'Dooms'.....some in the past couple of days uttering comparisons to Ebola....you just start having 'flashes' of low intensity threats, chaos, calamity, and some potential threat.  The only way to overcome this....sipping down more Gluhwein than normal (say six to ten cups), or just walking away.  

Cannabis Purity Law?

 N-TV brought this topic up today.

In the German coalition chatter (SPD-Greens-FDP), they are agreed....weed will be legalized in 2022.

But somewhere in this mess....they have to create a purity law (like there is for beer).  There's been a lot of chatter over the couple of years....individuals 'spiking' cannabis in Germany.  The government wants that stopped, and whatever is sold at shops....has to be 100-percent pure weed.

Some rush down for the law?  I doubt it.  They might spend all of 2022 working on this purity law and how you'd tax everything....with the license business for businesses.  

If you ask me....it'll be near the end of 2022 or spring 2023....before you see a weed shop opened in your local neighborhood.

How Many Fake Vaccination Slips Exist in Germany?

 Well....the authorities just say that roughly 2,500 Germans are currently under investigation.  Those are the ones they are working on presently....to  drag into court (yeah, up to 2 years in prison possible).  

Jailing them?  A fair number of Germans would say it's a tremendous waste of jail-space, and you'd just be triggering family members to be in serious financial shape while mom or dad (maybe both) were in jail.  

Might be smarter to put a ankle tracker on the person, and just house-arrest for six months.

More to come?  No one can be sure about this....there might be 100k individuals like this.  

The Quarantine 'Script'

 So once you test positive via a PCR test for Covid in Germany....what happens?

Well...within 2 work-days, you get this scripted letter from your local German health authority.  It's a two-pager, with phone-numbers, lists of folks who can answer health questions, and then the direct statement....you will remain in your residence.  No grocery shopping....no refueling the car....no post office stop.  Nothing.

Then the letter will prescribe the day that this ends....14 days later, or if you PCR-test yourself via your doctor with a negative.

If you violate the rules?  Cops get involved, and they have the authority to do the fine, and if you don't listen to that logic....they drop you off at a enclosed facility to get your attention.

The necessity of having either helpful friends/relatives, or getting groceries delivered?  Well....it's an absolute necessity.  

How many Germans have entered into quarantine since day one?  5,679,844 folks (out of 83-million).  At the current pace in this new up-tick?  I'd say they reach 12-million before the end of March.  

The Gluhwein Problem

 So we have this odd problem developing in Germany over Gluhwein (mulled wine).

First to describe the beverage....it's basically a cheap 7-percent alcohol wine, that has some  spices added (sometimes raisins), and heated up.  On a bitter cold day....standing outside, it warms you up.  Typically....one is enough.  If you were stupid and drunk through three or four in ninety minutes...you'd be a somewhat drunk.

It's a beverage that comes around in November, and is basically gone by mid-January.  A Christmas drink?  Yes.

So, here's the problem....the catering folks went out in the early fall, and figured that things were good enough that Christmas markets would occur, and bought literally 'tons' of bottles of Gluhwein.   As Covid advanced....the smaller markets were shutdown, and you are left with the big urban areas running marginal situations.  Most of them are speculating over closure coming in a matter of days.

In simple terms....some of these catering groups have a thousand bottles of the Gluhwein sitting there in a structure, and no hope in 2021 of using up their inventory.  

Trying to donate the stuff away?  To who.....homeless shelters?  

It's an odd problem with no solution. 

Germany and Covid: 27 Nov 2021

 1. Is it too late to halt the introduction of the new 'deadly' variant from South Africa?

Well....the Netherlands now reports this AM that a dozen-odd people flew in from SA, and have the new variant.  It is too late.  But the flight halt will still take place, and probably go on for at least two months.

2.  N-TV reported today that the German government....has NO idea on the vaccination rate among German doctors and nurses.  ZERO.

Blame being dumped on the CDU-SPD coalition government under Merkel?  Yeah, to some degree.  But frankly....no one ever suggested to get personal job information while getting jabbed.  They didn't ask you if you were married, your favorite beer, or preferred soccer teams.  

So would they be shocked if 40-percent of nurses haven't been jabbed?  Yeah, I'd go and suggest that.  Even if were closer to 12-percent....they might be surprised.

3.  Arguments over a shortage of vaccine?  N-TV talked about this issue in the AM.  Lower Saxony and Brandenburg (the states) are talking about this.  Massive issue?  No....it's a delay of about a week on 'promised' vaccine.  But it puts people in the two states a week behind.

4.  Couple of months ago....the reality show that Germans hype up....'Jungle Camp'.....was destined to move from Australia to South Africa.  The RTL show is one of the top ten shows of the year.  Well....lot of chatter over the past two weeks, and it appears questionable if the show will run at all.  Was supposed to start up in January.  

5.  There's a rumor around Lufthansa this morning here in Germany....that non-vax people won't be able to fly (shortly).  Just a rumor circulating around social media.  No idea if this is true or not.  

6.  7-day incidence rate (per 100,000 residents) at 444.  One virus expert suggests the German rate will double over the next couple of weeks.  

7.  Some legal things noted since the epidemic mandate ended on 25 October....the national power to do a shutdown....also ended.  German states on their own....have the power still, so you probably will see a state-by-state decision made.  Before Christmas, I expect all of the German states to have a lockdown in place, and some type of curfew (figure 8 PM to 9 PM).  

8.  France mandated masks for public situations (parking lots, open-air markets, parks, etc).

9.  Most of the highly urbanized Christmas markets in Germany are still functioning, with stringent rules (forget about it if you are non-vax).  If you view trends and virus-expert commentary....I'd tend to suggest that they will all shut down by mid-December.  The smaller town operations?  Mostly all shutdown at this point. 

German Wording for South African Covid Virus

 So flights are now limited to just Germans returning or German-visa folks returning.

If you do fit the category.....you are allowed to re-enter Germany from South Africa.  14-day quarantine is required as well....doesn't matter if you were vaxed-up or not.  

Countries affected so far?  Namibia, Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe.  

Big deal?  I'd say if you watch public TV news over the past 24 hours....this is 'hot-stuff', and the next fear porn.  BionTech, maker of the big vaccine....says they are looking at the virus and likely to develop some booster for it.  No words on production.....probably won't be any earlier than March on production though.  

Just a humble guess, but some massive herd situation will occur by April-May and we go through the whole 'you-gotta-vaccinate' game by mid-summer 2022 again.  

Example of Covid Losses

 It's not front-page news, and it might only come up in the Nuremberg area (Bavaria).....but a week or two prior to the local Christmas market opening up (internationally known, probably drawing at least 10,000 non-Germans easily during the season).....the market was shutdown from opening.  Orders from the Bavarian government.  

Cost locally?  On the conservative side.....180-million Euro (the market operators, concessions, taxi folks, hotels, restaurants, etc).  

Social media there locally....on the critical side and frustrated.  

For some, this was the season to bump up their yearly profits and come out 'even'.  

Odds for 2022?  No one talks about that, and you just have to wonder if it'll repeat.  

The Bill-Shifters (Kinda Like Shape-Shifters)

 N-TV brought up this topic in the AM today.  

The Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (out of Berlin) wants to force the non-vax folks to 'share' in the cost of medical/hospital services.

What it cost for a severe case....with ventilation, in a German hospital?  The average is around 77k Euro (figure about 90-thousand US dollars).  Some chunk of that money would get dumped upon the non-vax guy.

Odds of this getting pushed?  You'd trigger a reaction where non-vax people decline hospital options, and quietly go die in the hospital parking lot or at home.  The death rate? It'd have to rise at least 10-to-20 percent higher.  Course, statistically....the lessening of non-vax people would help the national average improve.  

This pro-bill-dump crowd would probably be happy because the lesser-intelligent no-vax folks were more doomed than the smart-intelligent vax folks.  

I just don't see the Bundestag wanting to engage in cost sharing (cost-dumping is more appropriate).  

But this brings up another issue.  If this was so brilliant and acceptable.....why not cost-share out cancer treatment for those who smoke cigarettes' as well?  Figure the 40k Euro cost of chemo treatment, and hand the smoker a personal bill of 9k Euro because they weren't a clean-living individual.

What about the druggies?  Calling an ambulance out for some guy who was over-dosing?  Shouldn't you hand that gal/guy a bill of 5k Euro for the ambulance and medical care required?  If they can't pay it....leave them there on the street, and let them pass onto the great beyond. 

What about the crowd on 31 December using fireworks and trigger some big injury that requires 20k Euro of medical attention....can't we hand that guy a 10k Euro bill?

But here's the key question to ask....if you got vaxed-up, and still get severe Covid (requiring 10 days in the intensive care facility)....who can we hand that 50k Euro bill to?  The guy who got well....the vaccine company....or the politicians who promised 'pure protection' with the vaccination?  

These guys are opening up a big mess, but I like the way they think.  Maybe we can weigh folks upon entry into hospitals, and for each kilo/pound over the preferred amount....charge up 9 Euro per day per kilo, as a extra fee.  Maybe even the train and bus folks could weigh folks upon entry and add a 1-Euro fee to the chunky women/men.  

What's in the Coalition Agreement About E-Cars?

 Well.....it says by 2030, 80-percent of all produced power MUST be renewable energy (not the 65-percent that was on the previous books).  Is it possible to reach this goal?  You'd have to revamp the life-cycle deal on wind generators, and get more enthusiasm back into the program.  Or you could reword this to mean 'zero-carbon' which means nuke energy could be brought back into the system.

The coalition also says the nation needs 15 million E-cars on the road by 2030.  Odds of this?  Mixed.  Maybe around urban areas of Frankfurt, Berlin, Stuttgart....there is enthusiasm building up.  Rural areas....lot less thrills.  

They wrote a piece into the coalition agreement that regular gas/diesel cars would not be registered into the system by 2035.  Ability to deliver on this?  I'd put it at virtually zero chance.  But it does sound good on paper.

There's a piece in the agreement over public charging stations in Germany....where the government wants one-million public charging stations by 2030.  This is not referring to home charging but out in towns, cities and along the autobahn.  Current number (early 2021).....around 23k.  This would require an awful lot of effort, and high public cost.

All that chatter about speed limits?  Gone.  No attempt to install speed limits at present.

Allowing kids at 16 to drive (with an adult in the car)....on the table and probably will occur in the next year.  

Germany and Covid: 26 Nov 2021

 1.  Lot of chatter started up last night over news of this new South African variant.  German government folks super-worried.  Some talk of curtailing flights into Europe from South Africa....may be too late anyway.

2.  Kind of a bold statement made by Virus expert Alexander Kekulé (Welt interview): “Those who have been vaccinated and those who have recovered believe they are safe because they were told that until recently. But they also become infected to a considerable extent. "

For probably six months, this was the nightly theme on both public TV networks.....getting vax people to the level feeling 'truly protected'.  This sudden chatter since October about the booster (now almost mandatory)?  The vax deal comes with a certain amount of time, and week by week....the effective protection degrades.  

3.  7-day infection rate now at 438 per 100k residents.  Reporting 76k new infections for past 24 hours over all of Germany.  

4.  RKI reports in recent days.....about 20-percent of all PCR tests done now....are positive.

5.  The EU is about to concrete down the effective dating for a vaccination.....nine months from last jab day.  Your certificate is good for strictly nine months, and then?  More jabs....to get a fresh certificate.  

Reality of this?  Depending on which study you drag out....total effective nature is mostly gone by sixth month....so you might be standing there in a happy EU mode....at month seven, and getting full-up Covid.  

Odds of this changing in six months?  I'd give it a 90-percent chance that it'll go down six months on the certificate lasting.  

Odds of a Shutdown/Lockdown Across Germany?

 Three months ago, you could have brought this up and it would have been only a 1-percent chance.  Today....I'd put the odds up around 80-percent.

N-TV talked about it in  the afternoon.  It's worth a review.

My humble view?  There's a state government and federal government meeting in about ten days.  I expect them all to agree.....state by state, with some magical number in mind.....shutdowns will start up, with curfews forced upon everyone (even the vaccinated).

Occurring?  Probably by 3rd week of December and running for a minimum of six weeks.  

Grumbling by the public?  Last year's shutdown business was generally accepted by the public, with maybe 20-percent being anti-shutdown.  Cops enforced it, and the ones who really suffered were bars, theaters and sit-down restaurants.  Presently, the vax-crowd will be peeved because they thought they were totally protected.  

What really needs to be done?  I'd suggest to move past vaccinations, and get to a drug/therapy deal.....where you tested positive, and the doctor gives you X, Y and Z from the pharmacy.  You take five days of the drugs....sip through some water, and simply rest....getting over it by the 7th day.  You need a game-changer.  

Two Missing

 If you wrote the top five Green party folks on a list....you'd include Anton Hofreiter and Katrin Göring-Eckhardt.  Today, the Greens wrapped up the rest of the cabinet posts in the new government.  The two didn't get any assignments.  

A big deal?  There are various 'groups' within the Green Party, and it will irritate one or two of those folks.   

Happy Freedom Day (in Germany)!

 Around two months ago, there was hype going on in Germany about 25 November....when the epidemic period would officially end.  At the time, there were very low infection numbers and things looked 'fairly good'.  

So everyone circled 25 November and felt it'd be a great day.  No one was suggesting parties or parades....just that it'd be worth toasting a beer, or thinking over 2019 (the last great year).

Well....presently, I don't think anyone will utter 'freedom day' today.  82k new infections were reported in the past 24 hours.  Present 7-day infection rate is 404 (per 100k residents).  445 deaths via Covid were reported yesterday.

My general advice....if around Germans today...don't bring freedom day up in conversation.  

How to View the New Coalition Government

 First, there is a 177-page agreement on how the three will handle things.  

Second, if you pay attention to what journalists say.....the SPD and FDP got a big chunk of what they wanted, and the Greens really got screwed.  Of dozen-odd things extreme things that the Greens were hoping for.....they got none of them.

Third, Hartz IV (the welfare program) will be going away.  What comes next is basically Hartz IV under a new name, and perhaps a 5-to-10 percent bump-up on cash.  The replacement?  Burgergeld (citizen's money).  My humble guess is that it'll be around for 20 years, and be condemned as 'not enough'.  

Fourth, if you were a nurse, and what's included in the 177 pages.....you might be getting a rise in pay-scale.  Lot of chatter over this topic, but it's not clear what the pay raise will be (I'd be guessing around a 8-to-10 percent rise....maybe over a two-year period). 

Fifth, there is some scripted piece that every kid is guaranteed an apprentice position.  I sat pondering over this....it's physically impossible to make this promise.  Presently, 2021 for example, there were around 50k apprentice positions that went empty.....so there is a shortage of people to apply for the apprentice situations.  Whether this will continue?  Anyone's guess.

Sixth....this election gave you the weakest 'winner' in the history of Germany.  So don't go expecting miracles out of this crew.  

Sports Covid Chatter

 For several weeks, we've been in crisis mode with German soccer.  Yes, we have a player for FC Bayern (actually pretty good player and probably in the top 20 of the nation)....Joshua Kimmich, who just plain refused the vaccination for Covid.

Nightly, we got sports updates on this, and tremendous chatter went on each day....for the 'immature' Kimmich, who would classified as a 'idiot' by sports journalists for not getting the shots.

Well....today, the tide turned.

Kimmich tested positive for Covid.  So he'll be out of action for two weeks, and probably on a recovery situation for another two weeks.

In quarantine at home presently.

What happens at the end of this bout?  Well.....he could stand up....grin, and say he's 2G (recovered).  That would be enough for five months of avoiding this discussion.  

Did he do this purposely?  No, I'm not buying into that argument (yes, I probably would have sat in a room with sick-guy myself.....to get Covid, and halt all the gossip stuff).  

Shutdown Averted?

 It kinda came out today (page 2 type news) that in the past two weeks....Merkel was attempting to bring the SPD-Greens-FDP, and the sixteen states to a table.....to do a two-week shutdown (probably would have started next week).  

Objective failed?  More or less.

Appears the SPD-Green-FDP coalition group (not really signed into posts yet) weren't willing to agree to this.

Triggering massive anger?  I think a fair number of vaccinated folks would have been stressed out....thinking they had 'pure-protection', and this was totally unnecessary.

Would the two week shutdown have been flipped to another two weeks?  Well....you don't know.  

So we are out of the woods on the shutdown deal?  I'd say no.....it's probably coming back in two weeks to discussed by various state governments.  

Why You End Up Being Skeptical of Journalists

 Two nights ago...via ZDF (Channel Two, German public TV)....they ran a short piece on a shooting at the Temple Mount (Jerusalem, Israel).

Normally, I wouldn't care and it'd just go by me, but I watched it and kinda wondered if there was anything missing from the story.

Focus brought this up yesterday.

So the way that ZDF told this story, with the banner/headline was "Israel: a Palestinian shot."

To the basic story (not the ZDF-told story)....there's this single Palestinian guy (99-percent terrorist) who got shot/killed by the police.  No one argues about that part, but then, all this occurs...AFTER he'd taken a rifle and shot 1 Israeli and wounded three others....back on Sunday morning....at the Temple Mount.

The dead terrorist?  Well....you wouldn't know it by ZDF, but he was regarded as a radical Islamist and was apparently a Hamas member. 

So you line up this story. 

The way that ZDF told it?  Pretty much faked-up the story (biased to the extreme).

The sad thing about this.....they could go an entire month without faking up stories or trying to churn up a biased view....hundreds of straight stories.  Then you hit some week where you notice two or three.  It's like they keep Johan tied up but let him go once in a while to get silly or stupid.

What's the real  angle here?  You have some public TV news people who have an firm attachment to whatever Hamas says....has to be true, and automatically downplay any alternate reality.  

Silly in a way....but this is why you have to continually view what you see....be skeptical, and ask stupid questions.  

What Scholz Said Today

 Two things:

1.  There will be some mandatory policy on professions....which require vaccinations (probably medical fields and retirement homes).

How many people are in the category?  Zero knowledge, which leaves one wondering if they are digging into a huge mess.  If you were talking about 200k people across Germany in these two groups, and you were telling 'do it' or be fired.  If you fire them.....who takes over?  Do these new employees appear out of some rabbit-hole?  I doubt it.

There's already a shortage of nurses and caretakers in the nation, and if pushed on the issue....it'll trigger a massive amount of chaos.

2.  Scholz says he wants a permanent Covid-crisis 'team'.  

The 'team' might be disagreeing with various states?  Well....yeah, this is a 99-percent chance that the two groups won't agree.

This team being a magnet for public TV condemnation or criticism?  That's guaranteed as well.

If you ask me....the group will quietly disappear in twelve months.

But here's the thing....if you want pure crisis management.....you won't bring virus doctors onto the group, or 70-year old retired politicians.  You'd find crisis managers in various fields (a lot might come from German army careers).  I'd call it a facts-and-ideas team....to look at problems on a weekly basis and suggest resolutions.  

The question....wasn't RKI supposed to be this type of team?  They only functioned with medical stuff, and the direction of the virus.  

RAF-Type Environmentalists?

 In recent weeks, there's been chatter on social media and news reports of a potential 'Green' RAF (Red Army Faction) being created out of thin air, and conducting terror in support of an environmental policy.

Odds of this?  Police, for the most part....don't discus this.  It's mostly journalists, and hyped-up younger pro-environmental folks. 

If you ask me for a humble view?  I'd say that several hundred individuals exist today in Germany....probably between the ages of fourteen and twenty-five, with the mentality and belief that RAF-action is now necessary to 'save' the Earth.

What type of actions might be seen in the beginning?  Mostly demonstrations on major avenues or autobahns....to stall traffic and create 'staus'.  Depending on what state you are in....the cops might hold back in the first couple of months.  If you went into places like Stuttgart....there won't be a lot of patience in handling this, and you'd probably be taken to a holding cell, and face some judge in three months.  

This putting the new coalition government into a difficult spot?  Absolutely....the Green Party won't be able to do much in support of the group.

How many revolutionary types now exist in Germany?  That's something that is hard to figure.  If you combined the anti-capitalists, the Antifa folks, the potential RAF-Green folks?  It might go above 20,000 nationally.  

Trying to compare it to the 1970s?  Well...everything is done by social media, WhatsApp, and emails....so the cops could easily get some tip, and in a matter of  weeks....track down a 10-person 'cell'.  I don't see you being able to 'hide' as well as people did in the 1970s.

I also don't see this group being willing to go out and kill people over their agenda.  They might destroy buildings, burn cars, or damage commerce....to send their message.  

So settle back in 2022, and prepare yourself for a new introduction of problems.  

Police Raids

 It'll be discussed more tonight, but 300 German police were used nationally, on raids of 24 residences.

Crime agenda?  Well....fake Covid vaccine 'passes'.

All in Hessen and Lower Saxony, from what the regional news reports.

On the books, you could get up to two years in prison.  Anyone's guess if they will go to the extreme view on this.  

Covid 2020 Event

 Back in March of 2020....in the Alpine skiing area of Ischgl, Austria....there was a big week-long ski event.  The emphasis was on bigwigs, expensive rooms, and VIP treatment throughout the week.

Toward the conclusion of this week....a lot of people from all over Europe went home, and took Covid with them.  In terms of a super-spreader event....this was probably the most dramatic event of 2020.  

So, Ischgl leads to some bartender.....that had Covid to some lesser degree and worked through this week (ton of money made).

For months, there's been an investigation brewing.  Town officials....the mayor....hotel management, etc.

Today, the state shut down the whole investigation.  No charges. 

Why the investigation ended?  Mostly because no one could find a single person from  the tourism industry who influenced the mayor or city council or health authority. 

Still a mess going on?  Well....various Germans took to court mechanisms and are suing the hotels for not protecting them.  It's anyone's guess if a judge can find fault, and even if they do....you could be talking about a sum less than 10,000 Euro (basically what you paid for the hotel, the meals, the ski passes, and VIP treatment for that week).  

How is 'Recovered' Interpreted for Entry into Bars/Clubs/Restaurants?

 When a German operation says entry allowed under 2G and say recovered....what does it really mean?

There must be a positive PCR test which says you were tested at least 28 days ago.  If your 'experience' was more than six months ago?  Then it's no longer valid, and you have to present a vaccination slip.

So this PCR test has pretty limited value?  OH YEAH.

You can figure it has some value for about five months.  

The only way to exercise this and have continual value?  Well....you'd have to go around the fifth month, and sit next to a sick Covid gal, and get Covid a second time....get the PCR test to show positive, and repeat the whole experience again.

How many people are walking around in this 'recovered' but non-vax status?  Unknown.  It's not something the government really wants to count.  It might be upwards to half-a-million Germans.....it might be fewer than 100k Germans.  

Scientifically speaking....couldn't a guy/gal have Covid....get done and well, and in 90 days repeat the experience again?  It is conceivable.....but you ought to have enough antibodies in your system to prevent.  Now if you were talking about the sixth month.....there's probably a higher risk for lesser antibodies.  

Agreement on New Ministers Under Scholz

 Focus reports here around noon....the list of some of the new ministers is now written in 'stone':

Chancellor: Scholz (SPD)

Ministry of Transport: Volker Wissing (FDP)

Ministry of Finance: Christian Lindner (FDP)

Ministry of Education: Bettina Stark-Watzinger (FDP)

Ministry of Justice: Marco Buschmann (FDP)

Foreign Ministry: Annalena Baerbock (Greens)

Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate: Robert Habeck (Greens)

Any shocks?  No.  Why the SPD hasn't listed people to jobs yet?  Unknown.  Greens have not listed three additional minister positions either.

Baerbock qualified for the Foreign Minister position?  There will be lots of debate over this, and it wouldn't shock me if she lost or traded her seat in the next two years.  

Lindner controlling the purse strings of the Finance Ministry?  Probably a good thing. 

Next German State Election: Saarland

 Date?  27 March 2022.

How things look presently for the election?  There was a poll done in the state around two weeks ago by Wahlkreisprognose.

Their polling shows the SPD able to win (38-percent), with the CDU (who used to be the power-player of the state) barely at 29-percent.  If you go back six months ago....the CDU (Merkel's group) were up around 35-to-40 percent of the regional polling.  

Third place?  It drops to a drastic point....the FDP around 9-percent, and the AfD to around 8-percent.  The Green sitting at 5-percent (they were another group who were floating around 15-percent back six months).  

I'd say the SPD is at a safe point now.....likely to win the election by a minimum of five points.....maybe even ten points.  

A fairly 'safe' place for the CDU for twenty years?  Well....yeah.  The results of the September national election has changed some dynamics.  

A Bold New World?

 Reason magazine wrote up a piece which I read yesterday, and it's been on my mind.  The topic?  Covid has worked to make more democracies authoritarian, and if you were an authoritarian government to start with.....you are probably pretty close to dictator-status today.

All of this goes to Covid measures which some believe to be disproportion to the reality that people see.

Priorities changed....vacations were cancelled or made into a chaotic planning event.  Restrictions are an acceptable part of life.  Schools exist, but if you measured 'Wendy' or 'Hector' on advancing in the past two years....there's some noticeable things that they didn't get via the missing school days.  

You can go across Europe and see the various directives handed out, and their consequences.  In some harsh lands.....it's a pretty difficult landscape and not likely to improve even in 2022.

Chief problem?  No one had rules or regulations in place for something like this.  Never in a thousand years....did someone conjure up some fantasy virus with this type of consequences.  So week after week.....folks wrote rules, bans, and regulations that didn't really fit like a 'puzzle'.  Some things made sense...some didn't.

Where this leads onto in 2022?  More regulations.  More bans.  More rules.  

How I'd Design the 100-Percent Vaccination Program For the Germans

 First, I'd get a listing of the vaxed-people, and then pass out the names of the non-vax to the police and public health.  

I'd round a group up each morning, using police force....with maybe 50-percent of police nationally dedicated to this.  

I'd handcuff the guy at the front door.  

I'd bring the non-vax crowd to a central location in the town or city....probably soccer field and then tie them to poles.

I'd allow people to watch, or have televised ceremonies.

I'd have big strong guys hold the guy to the ground, until we could vax them.  

Day after day, I'd herd these people into enclosed areas...holding them until the second vax chance came up.  

Once done, I'd start the schedule process to plan the next 'grab-and-go'.....where the booster was required.  I'd probably hire more than 500,000 helpers to conduct 'grab-and-go' situations throughout Germany.  

I'd issue the 'grab-and-go' team brown uniforms, a badge of some type, and give them government recognition.  

I'd immediately halt all testing because you really don't need to test anymore, if everyone is completely vaccinated.  I'd shut down all test centers within 30 days.  

I'd never allow any guest or visitor into the country unless you showed a vaccination card.  The 'grab-and-go' team would be at the border to handle people entering.

I'd ensure tests were stopped because we cured Covid the right way.  

I'd shut down any TV or news group who voiced discontent about my 'grab-and-go' team, or the country's mandatory vaccination, or the idea that my no-test idea is wrong.

If people suggested Covid was still going around, and people had lesser symptoms....with people still dying at high....I'd detain those folks and deny them access to social media.  

In a year's time, I'd get the Nobel Prize for Peace...curing the country of the evil Covid.  Nowhere....would Covid exist in Germany.

For some reason, I don't think they want to hire me or get with my strategy.  

The Sha Ka Ree Moment

 For about a month now in Germany, there's been the hype of compulsory Covid vaccinations.  I've sat and pondered upon the idea.

The situation would work this way....the Bundestag would draft up a bill and just say you are mandated to perform this function....whether you agree or not.  Then they'd say.....no job, no grocery shopping, no welfare, no healthcare options, nothing unless you cooperate.  

Surely at this point, the anti-vax folks would realize the enormous power of the government and that they could force you to perform 'anything'.  Then.....overnight.....everything would be resolved and in thirty days.....Covid would just disappear.  

It'd be like some volcano existed in Germany, and a month later....it didn't exist any longer.

People would feel at peace, and drawn to recite poems about the greatness of being vaccinated.  

Yes, it'd be like some Jesus-moment where you had this enormous bowel movement, and then in the midst of prayer.....it went down the toilet....down the pipes, and went to the city sewage system.

Then in the distance, you can sense this moment approaching....kinda like when Captain Kirk is at the 'final frontier' and God/Sha Ka Ree says he needs a spaceship.  Kirk wakes up from some reflection (thinking of that hot gal on Bashir-9 that had the 3 boobs) and then asks if things were all powerful (like God or the government is)....why couldn't you just do things without the support of humans/voters or cooperation/ask for a stupid star ship/vax.

At that point, you realize that the whole draw of mandated vaccination....would be difficult if you still had Covid going through a community....six months later.  

What would happen in November 2022....with massive numbers approaching and a 100-percent vaccination deal?  Total farce for the government's agents to sell any brand of Covid from that point on.  

So I think one of two things will happen.  Either a eternal fight between the vax/non-vax folks.....or 100-percent accomplishment with total loss of faith in the governments ability to handle this chaos and crisis. 

The 'False Security' Story

 There's a piece in the WELT (German newspaper) today with a comment or two by a regarded virus expert (Alexander Kekule) who makes a fair 'slam' against the political establishment.

His wording?  He says that the German government has been strongly attempting to send a "false security" message to vaccinated people....that they are protected (in the absolute sense).

I will note that various hospitals will have some statistic that they put out....saying 6-percent or 12-percent of their ICU folks are vax'ed-up, with the rest being non-vax.  The problem with this 'fact'.....it's not backed-up in any way.  You don't have to provide your vax status to the hospital when checking (in this emergency situation).  So guests of the hospital might volunteer this data.....they might not.  Or they might lie.

There is a draft law going around, where you have to show your status in January....if entering for anything.  To be legally challenged?  No doubt.

The continual theme message that only by cleansing yourself via the vaccination business....you can be 'safe'?  Well....it does sound good, I admit.  Even if it faked-up.....it makes you feel better/safer (like wearing a cheap condom that is prone to break, it was the thought that counts).

Germany and Covid: 23 Nov 2021

 1.  What was referred to as the 'toothless wonder' in 2020....the Covid warning App is being hyped-up to 'save' people now.  I kinda questioned the hype and the App.

Generally, it was well built and would gauge your distance (within x-number of feet) to people who also had the App on their smart-phones.  If you didn't carry a smart-phone....the App was useless.  If you tested positive....they'd ask for your number and then the computer would do a walking history of people who you bumped into....for the past number of hours, within that 1.5 meter distance....for approximately 2 minutes.  If the guy was there for sixty seconds?  It didn't register him.  

For each benefit that the App had....there was a negative.  For Germans hyped-up on privacy....while the developer crowd and government promised this would never be used in any manner except Covid-tracking....while probably a quarter of the population had doubts.  Personally, I didn't care....but I didn't really want my wife tracking my every move.  

As for this 'saving' people now?  With an enormous number of people infected....the idea is that the database can finally deliver analysis.

2.  The 7-day infection rate as of last night?  399.8.  Yes, extremely high.

3.  Shutdown odds?  I'd say in about ten days, unless some change comes on the numbers....I'd go and predict shutdown occurs, and some kinda curfew (probably affecting only non-vax) will occur.  This to be more of regional shutdowns, than a national all-Germany deal?  It's very likely. 

4.  Soccer coach forced to resign because of a fake vaccination card?  Yeah, Werder Bremen's coach....Markus Anfang.  Legally.....he probably will be charged up and face some kind of hefty fine.  Across the country?  Anyone's guess, but there might be 100k folks holding fake vaccination cards (going for 150-200 Euro presently on the black market).

5. Fear politics leading over crisis management?  This has been kicked around for the past month.  A lot of Germans are suggesting a change in government is now a positive thing.  Some believe that the worst management decisions made so far.....were politically handled.  

6.  This idea by the Health Minister...Spahn....to make all of Germany a 2G mandate (vaxed-up or recovered)?  Legal minds have mostly laughed....suggesting that it'd have immediate push-back by non-vax crowd. Enforcement?  You'd have to add tens of thousands of police/monitors....to make something like this work.

7.  There are five German states with a 7-day incidence rate over 500 (mostly all in the south and east).  Reported in AM today.  

8.  The Verdi union saying they won't support mandatory vaccination rules for certain occupational fields (nursing or rest-home operations).  I would say that's a major problem now for the government to counter.

How My Local Christmas Market Will Run

 So, the city of Wiesbaden gave a 'blessing' for the operation to run (a fair number of Christmas Markets across Germany did not).

Basic rules?

1.  Once you enter the 'zone', even while it's out-of-doors....you are mandated (as adult or kid) to wear a mask.

2.  In the 'controlled' area, with food/beverage stands.....there's a place where you go and show your vax-card or your recovery status.  There, you get a wrist band (no cost).  Then you can go to buy a gluh-wine, or any number of food items.  The non-vax will not be allowed to buy in this area.

3.  Fine for not wearing mask?  Of course.

4.  Strict enforcement?  Police and hired-monitor will be walking around.  The non-vax 'herd' is being kept at a distance.  

So if you were non-vax, you can consider the Christmas Market to be off-limits.  My suggestion....buy a bottle of gluh-wine and sip it (cold) at some park bench away from the fest.  You can stop at McDonalds or Burger King for food.....no 2G rule on their counter (you can't eat inside anyway).

Crapped up?  Of course.  But I'm suspecting in about two weeks....another big political meeting, and a major shutdown announced for mid-December.

There's no doubt that the beverage/food stands are making less money.  There's little doubt that older Germans are fearful of public locations and getting Covid.  Money being generated by the food stands?  I'll make the prediction that they will feel lucky if they make 40 to 60 percent of their normal income.  

That Christmas 'cheer' feeling?  It's best not to bring it up.  

Limburg Story

 It's just one of those odd stories.

Up in Limburg (about an hour north of my house), is a mid-town street area composed of B8 (state road), Frankfurter Strasse, and Diezer Strasse.  What you can see out of the layout....in the mid-town area, these three streets are the main way to get from west to east...in the town.

Because of Nitrogen Oxide levels....there's a ruling that came down (EU rules) that these three streets are to be forbidden for entry/exit for diesel or older model gas cars....starting in April of 2022.

Just about everyone in town has a negativity about what is going to be created.  Fines to be handed out....if you accidentally get on one of these three in the mid-town area.

The fact that all three lead over to the local train station?  Yeah.

The reaction presently is that a whole bunch of people (in the guilty group) will just look for alternate routes around the three streets.....making the mid-town area a colossal mess....even for locals.

Property values along the alternate routes to go down?  Probably.

All of this being done with almost no alternate route planning or routes?  Yes.

Once the air has reached 'clean' levels....then what?  Will the no-entry be taken down?  No one says that.  

Christmas Market Story

 It's a bit of critical comedy developing over in Erfurt, Germany today.  So the state (Thuringia) has a Covid mandate....any type of public event....you are limited to 2,000 people in attendance. 

The city of Erfurt sat and thought about the idea of a Christmas market, and then wrote the plan.  There would be THREE Christmas markets created (secured by a fence for each).  So you can have up to 6,000 people in the middle of this.

Harsh criticism from all over social media, but they've obeyed the state's Covid mandate 'to the letter'.

Will the state come and shut this whole thing down?  Unknown.

Health Minister Speaks This Morning

 Germany's Health Minister (Spahn, CDU) had a press conference this morning.  Several things said:

1.  He admits a number of Covid test kits on the market....are crap.  He lays part of the blame on the EU (they certified them early on, without much testing).  One of the German government agents is delegated now to test and put a German stamp of approval on the kits.

One story I essayed last week....suggested out of the 120 commercial brand kits sold in Germany....one out of five are crap.  

2.  He admits that there needs to be a antibodies test to determine when recovered....how you stand on your numbers.  He also says that a antibodies test probably needs to be done after you've been vax'ed up.  

Where this will lead to?  I would imagine somewhere in the 30 to 60 days after you had Covid....you will get a call from the district health office or your doctor, and have some test done.

The idea that you might have to do this every other month?  Well....it's anyone's guess, but logic would dictate that various people are different, and we might discover along this path that some people (even 15 months after a bout of Covid) still have a reasonable amount of antibodies.  Sadly, we might also find out that certain vax'ed up people have lost half their antibodies after 60 days.

It's not a bad idea to test on the antibodies, but you might get results on the test that would stir up your frustrations.  I'd be on the negative side if after a booster shot....my antibody score was only one-third effective by the 90th day after the booster. 

3.  Booster chatter?  It would appear shortly after the Christmas holidays....some massive booster program will start up with just about all adults from the spring-summer period given another booster.  Logically?  You can interpret this to mean the original vaccination gives you six to eight months of coverage.

4.  Direct quote: "Pretty much everyone will be vaccinated, recovered or died this winter. That is very likely with the Delta variant."

Odds of this?  Unknown.  No one even has the statistical information to say how many non-vax people exists in Germany, who've not had Covid in the past 20 months.  It might be fewer than a thousand....it might be over two-million.

The topic of people who have been antibody-tested positive but shown no real symptoms?  This occasionally comes up, and one Mainz University study suggested somewhere in the range of 15-to-20 percent of the Covid-tested-positive folks are matched by the no symptom-but positive crowd.

So I'll end this with a reflection....an awful lot of this chatter today....should have come up twelve months ago.  The antibody test....the poor crappy test kits on the market, etc....all should have been a topic on the table of discussion.

Info from press conference:  Focus.

'Where You Headed?'

 Starting tomorrow night here in Germany (Monday evening)....in the state of Baden-Wurttemberg, if you live in a Covid 'hot-zone'.....if you are non-vax, you aren't supposed to leave your home at night, unless there is a valid reason (work, emergency).

This curfew affecting only non-vax folks?  Yes, and will start at 9 PM.  So, just in general.....police will be pulling over just about everyone, but if you are vax'ed up.....you are safe and just say you are going to hang out at a nudie-bar, visit your secret-lover, or just out counting people on the street.

The three towns?  Sizeable places on the SW of Germany.

Getting people frustrated a bit?  No doubt.  But lets be honest.....no one should be out after 9 PM anyway.  

Will this one action cure the three towns of Covid?  No.  If you felt like drinking out on some outdoor pub.....just go earlier, and wrap it up by 8:30 PM, to drive home.  

If you had car trouble and lingered after 9 PM as a non-vax guy?  My advice is to have a bottle of booze in the car, and just sleep it off in the car until 5 AM.  Then it's safe once again for you to walk in public.  I hate to suggest it.....but it's like 1666 and you got witches hanging out after 9 PM, with the cops trying to save from demons and evil spirits.  

As for the question from the police as they stop you at 9:06 PM....'where you headed'....you ought to have a comeback phrase memorized for the moment. 

The Odds of a Full Shutdown?

 Where I live (Wiesbaden district)....over the past week, the 7-day incidence rate has bounced around 175 to 194 (yeah, it's a hefty number).

Locally, they will admit dedicated quarantine beds with the city hospital system are filling up....about 90-percent of dedicated beds are occupied.

Newly infected folks for past 24 hours (from last night)....101 (out of population of 283,000. 

The city leadership has made a comment or two....that shutdown is a tool, and likely laying on the table at present.  Last year, same time period....the infection rate was maybe half of what exists presently.....with not so many folks sitting in the hospital.  

If I were taking a humble guess....within three weeks, unless the rates decrease, I tend to believe that a shutdown of 30 to 60 days will occur.  

The bothersome part of this?  It's simply a repeat of 2020, and people have this gut-feeling that the trend is set into motion without much to change yearly incidence increases.  

Any day now, I kinda expect some cult to start up....call it the Covies, where people engage in harsh 'stay-at-home' practices and maintain six feet social distancing around the clock when they leave the home.  

What's the Whole 3G Chatter on German Trains and Buses?

 If you follow the whole discussion....there's to be a new regulation (has yet to be signed).  Some folks say it'll be signed on Wednesday.....some suggest Thursday.  Effective?  The general talk is that within 24 hours after that signing....you have to be 3G to ride any bus, subway, tram or train.  That means Covid vax'ed, recovered from Covid, or tested within the past 24 hours.  

Kids exempt?  That's the funny thing....students are exempted.  In general, you have to test at school, so they figure there's no reason to attach the new regulation to them.

The current free-testing deal?  It's worded funny....it says you are given one free test per week.  It's not clear if it's free for the other four days.

So if you need to get to work at 6:30 AM, and no testing centers open?  Well....this isn't really explained how it'd work.

Bus  drivers or tram operators enforcing the regulation?  NO.  This is very clear from statements that they don't want the job, and will just work to safely deliver people.

Police left to enforce this?  Yeah.  And if you go to the details of their 'real' job....they really don't have forty hours a week to do 3G enforcement.  

Is there any study to show infection was being generated by travel on trains or buses?  No, that's another funny part of the discussion.  No university study can be produced which shows any real numbers for bus infections.

Requirement set for taxi use?  NO.  There is no regulation on travel via taxi.....again, another funny and amusing part of the story.

How I see this being played out over the next month?  Once 3G is in place and being policed by audits....I'd suggest an average of 10,000 or more 'problems' per day, with people noted without the test accomplished, and non-vax'ed.  

The odds that guilty parties will slow-roll the police?  No doubt.  A single violation situation will probably involve at least 20 minutes of slowing the pace down and making it a miserable experience for the police.  Trying to audit one single car on a regional train at rush-hour, with 90 people on that car?  It'd likely consume a minimum of an hour.

Buses with 100 people onboard at rush-hour morning cycles?  Figure that half the folks will exit the bus at the next stop, and the audit folks left in a fit of anger that they couldn't get the job done.

My gut feeling is that the bus/train 3G deal will end in four to six weeks, with the government admitting it was a brilliant idea which just didn't work as planned.  

Amusingly enough for everyone, it's the same 3G logic for use of prostitutes.  Same guys who pushed the agenda for that situation....probably pushed it for buses and trains.  

And yes, it's more or less a 'passport' without uttering the word 'passport'. 

Germany Q-and-A: 21 Nov 2021

 1.  Has the new Infection Act passed through and been made into law?

No.  The Bundestag didn't have much trouble passing it, but it has to go to the Federal Council (made up of the sixteen states), and there.....the CDU has a major say in matters.  The CDU (Merkel's party) isn't that thrilled over the wording and has mounted a fair amount of criticism.  But most everyone thinks this coming week....it'll pass.

2.  Is there a shortage of BionTech vaccine?

No, but we have this interesting development.  Private/public doctors (not the vaccination centers) are preferring BionTech.  The gov't has a significant amount of Moderna.....which isn't being requested much.  So the Health Minister is 'forcing' doctors into taking the Moderna before it expires.  Public frustration?  I'll just say it this way....BionTech is treated like a Mercedes sports car, and Moderna is kinda like an Opel....in terms of public acceptance.

3.  Is the nightly news via ARD/ZDF (public networks) consumed with Covid news?

On the 8 PM/ARD 15-minute news.....it's probably taking up 8 minutes of the 15 minutes.  It's been that way for at least four weeks.  

4.  Is there now a rehab (Kur) for anxiety-stricken/panic attack folks, over Covid?

Well....last night via ZDF, they had a second news report over this new trend.  There are Germans who haven't had Covid, but have developed panic attacks over chatter involving Covid.  Doctors have decided it's bad enough to send the guy/gal off to some Kur-wellness hotel, and get them 3 weeks of mental therapy.  

I would say this....between newspapers, the various news outlets, social media, and chatter at the office....Germans are getting a good four hours of Covid 'this-and-that', daily.  As bad as it was in November-December of 2020....it's twice that bad today.

The people who were being interviewed for the anxiety-over-Covid were adults and readily admitted they were emotionally harmed by the cascading chatter each day.  I generally kids to be in this type of situation by spring, and a national problem over panic attacks being openly discussed.

5.  What's the leadership situation of the CDU Party right now?

Merkel is gone, and Laschet resigned?  Well....there's a party meeting coming up and three folks in the running to be the party 'boss'.

Listed?  Friedrich Merz (generally disliked by pro-Merkel folks).  Helge Braun (was the former chief of staff for Merkel, and liked by pro-Merkel folks).  Norbert Röttgen (the intellectual of intellectuals, likely to be least of favorites).  Merz having a slight edge?  Merz is an expert on commerce, economics, and capitalism.  Braun is what I'd call 'Merkel-lite' and just a likeable guy.  

Upon a win, this person carries the party up to 2025.  Anyone's guess if they might be the candidate to run in that election.  

6.  How much daily chatter goes on for compulsory vaccinations?

Over an average day, via radio, internet, and TV news.....it's mentioned at least several times a day.  They generally cite the newest poll where 60 to 70 percent of the people polled think it should be done.

Does the Constitution allow such a mandate?  Not really.    You'd have to go there first....to modify things, then go for a mandate.  Odds of this?  I'd put it near zero.

How I See the German Christmas Markets Playing Out

 The general rule, across the spectrum, for the remaining Christmas Markets which say they will operate.....is 2G will be in effect (vaxed-up, or recovered).  Non-vaxed people will be kept out.  

So the financial loss?  When you come to the bitter end of December, with the income added up....I'll go and predict the income-level to be around 60 percent of a typical normal year (say like 2019).

Two hinderances exist:

1.  The non-vax crowd would normally have been in the mix....coming several times over the four-week period.  With them forbidden....that cash flow  won't exist.

2.  The older crowd (vaxed-up) will pause over what they now perceive as a threat area to get Covid.  They might make one single trip into the market zone.....just to say they did it.....but the rest of the normal walks through such an area?  Zeroed out.

Can the commercial operations survive with just 60 percent of the normal level?  It'll be just enough to pay bills and cost.  Beyond that....it's a loss for the man-hours involved.

How I'd think about the Christmas Market for November 2022?  Forget it.  I'd question any virus expert or politician on planning my participation or taking any financial risk for the limited income.  

Finally, to this odd problem.  You might have run a food 'cabin' with twenty-five people as your 'team' in a normal year.  If the area is declared 2G....and ten of your team  members are non-vax....they won't be allowed there.  So I see a major shortage of workers in the mix.  Even if you stopped and tried to get a beer or wine....you might be in line for thirty minutes.  That'll challenge regular vaxed-up people to make the trip.   

Germany and Covid: 20 Nov 2021

 1.  New updated infection rate for last night across Germany?  362 (per 100k), which is hefty.

2.  There's a new map pushed around....showing the hospitalization rate.  So there are three states in serious jeopardy at present, with hospitals filling up: Bavaria, Saxony and Thuringia. As one doctor explained last night on the news....the ambulance might pick you up at your house, but if there's no space for you at local hospitals.....you might end up on a hour to two-hour ride to a place with space still existing.

3.  The suggestion that the new incoming government (SPD-Greens-FDP) would mandate everyone to get the vaccination?  Gone.  They say it's not workable.

4.  Some German lawyers are suggesting that asking people to declare their status (vaccinated, recovered, tested)....is an invasion of privacy, and will drag companies into court.  

5.  Saxony (the state) has implemented a shutdown of various operations (culture, fitness, recreation).  

6.  Least affected area of Germany currently?  Far extreme north, next to Denmark. Most affected area?  Far southeast, against the Czech/Austrian border regions.

The Living Will Suggestion

 Boris Palmer, mayor of the German city of Tubingen (Baden-Wurttemberg), is/was a member of the Green Party.  The Party has deemed him a problem and is exercising him out of the party.  Chief reason?  He says a lot of things that put him on the radical side of thinking.

So Palmer came up in the last day or two....looking at the number of people in Germany who are non-vax (probably toward 20-percent of the adult population.  

Palmer then said...if you believe in non-vax, fine....but you ought to go all the way and write a 'living will', which indicates when/if you get Covid....you will decline the hospital option (if you are bad off).  In simple terms, if that bad....you wouldn't get hospital care, or the ventilator treatment.  

I sat and pondered over the suggestion.  It is a bit extreme, and will get a fair amount of attention.  

After a while, I came to agree with Boris Palmer on this living will idea and declining the hospital option.  In fact, I'd like to double-down (as they say in Vegas).

I'd like to include a second group in the living will deal.....those who vaccinate.  

I'd like to suggest that once you got vaccinated....you are fully protected and have no need for hospitals or ventilators.  Course, I would suggest that this is for 90 days after the vaccination, and as it weakens.....after the 90th day, the living will deal will cease for six months.  If you don't booster up by the 9th month?  Then I'd put you back on the living will deal, and forbid you the use of the hospital for Covid treatment.

Lets just be blunt....the vaccine is a wonderful thing and gives you absolute protection....so you don't need to worry about any hospital stuff.

When you reach this level of thought.....I think the next step is the hard drug crowd, and get them to also write a living will.  Once you overdose.....the first time that the ambulance comes to save you....you get full treatment.  On the 2nd time, the living will ought to kick in, and once the crew confirms who you are, and this is no-help situation. 

We could lessen cost expenditures for healthcare, and decrease the number of man-hours for urgent care.  

Odds that the German government will listen to Palmer?  Zero.  

2G Mandated for Soccer Fans?

 Yes, and it works this way.  2G standards mean you are immunized or you are in a recovery situation.  No-vax people with no past Covid?  These test deal won't be enough to get you into the arenas.

Affecting fans?  Unknown.  There are no statistical numbers to say that fans in  Hamburg, Frankfurt, Munich.....are vax'ed up or recovered.  It might be 90-percent.....it might be 30-percent.

Screwing up fan attendance?  Well, you can make the suggestion, but until you see how tickets sell....you just don't know. 

I will say this....if you have two games in a row where fewer than 5,000 fans show up to a 35,000 seat stadium....you have a problem and your profits will fall in a hurry.

Just How Effective Are the Vaccinations?

 Well....Focus went and published a piece today over the three topic vaccines.  I would strongly recommend a read.

So, Umeå University (Sweden) did a study of people and vaccines, and it's pretty dismal news on effective rates.

The three studied?  Moderna, AstraZenica, and Biontech.

At the 1-to-2 month point?  Moderna was leading at 95-percent effective.  AstraZenica?  It's fallen to around 55-percent.  Biontech is holding at 90-percent.

How things stand at four months?  Biontech has fallen to around 50-percent, with Moderna at 70-percent.  AstraZenica?  Well....it's fall to below 0-percent.

Moderna at six months?  It's at around 60-percent while Biontech has fallen to 30-percent.

So if you did use AstraZenica?  Either you are doing a booster by the 3rd month, or it's worthless.  

If this study is correct?  Basically.....you'd have to do boosters every six months minimum (preferably Moderna or Biontech).  

The Possibilities of a 'Sugar' Tax in Germany?

 Focus talked about this topic today.....between the coalition talks of the SPD, Greens and FDP Party.

The amount?  Unknown and not openly discussed.

Sodas, juice, candy, chocolate?  All affected, if this were passed.  The odds of this being a 10-percent thing?  I'd probably agree with that logic that prices would edge up by 10-percent.

Affecting consumption?  All that effort to edge up tobacco taxes....over the past 20 years in Germany?  All it achieved was more people buying untaxed tobacco brought into the country secretly.  

Likely to turn some folks angry?  Maybe, but for the vast number of folks.....they'd just go pay the new increased amount of money, within dumping their favorite products.

Why Can't Cities Utter Shutdown or Curfew?

 This sense of Covid urgency leads to a brief discussion. 

The problem is....the politicians and virus-experts led everyone to the thrills of natural immunity/herd immunity with all the Covid chatter of 2020.  So here you are....with all the vaccinations done, and double the infection rates of 2020.

You can't go and threaten people with shutdown or curfew at this point....not unless you say the magic phrase....it's the non-vax crowd that you want to shutdown or to curfew them out of bars, pubs, and restaurants.  In the next four weeks, leading up to Christmas....I generally expect virus-experts to hint that it's just odd....the vax-people hanging out at pubs and restaurants....have continued to ship Covid around the country.

So, then what?  

That's the less than thrilling conversation that no one really wants to stumble into. 

The Impact of Daily Tests in Germany

 Whether it's your ride on the bus/subway/train system, or actual company work....if you are non-vax....you have to complete a Covid test.

If you used the 'free' test deal at a test center because of your non-vax situation....the government itself is paying around 18 Euro per test.  

If you went to work and the boss handed you a self-test kit because of your non-vax situation...it's probably from a closet of them that he bought a box of 500 kits.  Each kit cost?  They range from 2 Euro to 3.5 Euro each.    

If you attend school or university....you are probably mandated to test at least two to three times a week.  The school is given the funds by the state....but the kits range 2 Euro to 3.5 Euro each.

So in the region I live in....Wiesbaden....you consider around 350k (the city, the suburbs and outlying area)....there's probably 80,000 in this constant test range, and per day....maybe around 400,000 Euro spent.  In ten days....4-million Euro (just for tests).

In Frankfurt, you could triple that.....12-million Euro minimum each ten days.

The statistical average of positives that might hit daily?  Unknown.  No one keeps numbers like this to say 12, or 120, or a thousand out of 80,000 are positive.

What's funny about this.....over the first three months of Covid in Germany....everyone wanted to get tested at their doctor's office (this was before the quickie-tests came out).  Doctors said NO.  You'd call and the nurse would ask five or six questions (do you have A, B, and C).  In the vast number of cases, you failed the questions, and doctors refused to test you for lacking sufficient evidence of Covid.  That standard lasted for about six months, then the quickie tests arrived, and the standard simply went away.

There's no doubt that a ton of state/federal funding is being spent on the tests, and the vast number of end-results are negative, which naturally makes people and politicians happy.  The budget guys? I'm guessing they are pretty negative about the cost factor, and that once a kit is extinguished (done)....it's just thrown into the garbage can.