Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Quickie Test Problem

 This morning (Wed), I noticed this short report via N-TV (commercial German news). 

Since spring of 2020...if you walk into a German grocery or pharmacy.....you could buy a Covid quickie-test kit.  Back at the beginning....they could ask 7 or 8 Euro per kit.  

Germans typically bought the kits but only used them when they had some runny nose or funny cough develop.  

Well...in the past month....the kits have sold, and there's some noticeable shortage going on.  The term 'back-order' is uttered a good bit.  Current pricing, if you find them?  Down to around 1.50 to 2.25 Euro per kit.  In some cases, it'll even go up to around 7 Euro per kit.

So, here's the thing....which you need to know....on reliability, most folks agree that around one test out of every five....is a false-negative/false-positive situation.  So they aren't that reliable.  

As for the shortage...does this go back to higher incidence rate and people possibly testing more?  I might suggest that.  But in most typical winters....people have more of a runny nose or funny cough situation.  

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