The next federal election is figured to be September of 2025.
Could it be earlier? Yes. You would require a falling-out of the SPD-Green-FDP government.
Odds on this? In a normal situation over the past fifty years....most people would generally put low odds (less than a 5-percent chance)..
In this mess....I'd actually put the odds way up to around 50-percent that a collapse will occur. The chief problem is the relationship between the FDP and Greens.
Will Scholz (as Chancellor) be worried over this? I would imagine something will pop-up every couple of months to remind him how fragile things are.
Does any of this benefit the CDU-CSU? No. For each month that the FDP demonstrates itself....it's adding a point that might have gone to the CDU-CSU. In eighteen months....the FDP might well be capable of getting a quarter of the normal CDU-CSU voters to move their votes to the FDP.
So don't be shocked if a falling out does occur.
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