Summing Up The Police Murder

 I essayed a piece yesterday to talk over the murder of two German police, and there's enough 'to close' the story today.

Around 6 to 7 PM last night, the two suspects gave up, and were apprehended by the police.  Both are German, and are NOT members of any crime clan or radical group.

To describe the entire event?  I've looked over ten different sources and will try to tell the basic story.

Cop patrol was in the vicinity of Kusel (20 miles NW of Kaiserslautern, very rural area) at 4 AM.....male and female cop (female was a police trainee).  Standard patrol.

They come around some curve and there's two vehicles pulled off, with lights up.  Cops stop, and view the situation.  Animal on the back of some vehicle....deer.  Here are two guys....one wearing a butcher's apron and it appears to be a field-butcher situation (illegal by German standards).  One is a hunter....the other guy (butcher's apron) is a failed businessman for the most part.

No one can say what set off the shooting, but the two police are killed (one never even got a chance to pull her pistol out).  

From what I can see....the hunter had a deer and the 2nd guy had done a good bit of butchering in his life.  But the story gets interesting....this second guy had inherited a bakery around a dozen years ago (5th generation baker), and ran the operation into the ground.  He's considered a difficult individual.  The bakery went bankrupt two years ago, and sits empty now.

This guy was continually taken into labor court because of his business practices with fired personnel.  Adding to the mess....when running the bakery....he had these trucks often stolen and burned to the ground.....with insurance paying off the vehicle.  A lot of speculation there but never a real investigation.

Why the sudden reaction and the necessity of killing the two police?  Mostly unknown.  Maybe with the bankruptcy business, and the failures in life.....he might have been near a breakdown and just reacted in this fashion to halt another problem.  

Court now?  I doubt if the case comes up for at least eight months.  The guy in the butcher apron, who fired the weapon, will face maximum charges.  The second guy will be charged to some degree....probably doing at least ten years.  

All of this over a field-butcher type event on the side of the road in a rural area?  Yeah.  If the two idiots had driven a kilometer or two off into the woods....down some trail....there would have been no chance of a police patrol.  Why they had to set this up near the pavement area....makes no sense.  

Jungle Camp Reality Show

 For the past 10 days....a German commercial network has run their yearly Jungle Camp reality show.

Best description?  Fifteen-odd days with 12 B-level promi people who are forced into a jungle camp setting....getting marginal sleep....being 'tested' once per day....trying to score points on their stories and lifestyles....and being graded by the public. 

It's been on fourteen years and this year is a bit different because they vacated Australia.....moving the operation to safari-like operation in South Africa.

On my list of shows to watch?  It'd normally be a 'no-go'.  But I'm mostly left with crap choices off public TV and marginal shows from the commercial side.  

So last night, the oddest thing happened.  A test occurred and the odd guy (he's a bit weird) said he won't participate on tests.....which are the key to getting 'extra' food for the entire group.  So they will mostly live off beans and rice for the remaining six days....if he is selected by the group to be the test participant.

They've never had a case like this.

Exhausted?  I'd say this group is more stressed out and exhausted than any previous group in their production lifetime.  

The guy responsible for this behavior?  He says that he's a reincarnation character, and was some knight from 800 years ago.  He also says the group has 'no energy' (no aura).  

Attracting a lot of attention?  Tonight, I'd expect an all-time record of people at 10:15 to view the action. 

The Nutcase Idea (France)

 There is a thought process going on within Macron's France that if you act 'crazy' on Islamic Jihadism, and are deemed a threat....then you ought to be brought in and put in front of a judge to be 'sent off' for mental clinic therapy (basically saying you have a mental illness).  

This was written up today and is worth a read.

I paused over the strategy.

In Germany, for at least five or six years.....each single terror attack has been attached to a mental 'problem' of the guy involved.   The police or politicians will just say (straight face)....he's not sane like us, and he's mentally disturbed.  Sometimes, it's three lines.....sometimes, it's a summary of twenty-five lines of text to what they say.

Germans don't actually disagree with the mental issue on terror attacks.  It's easier for them to understand because 99.9999-percent of Germans don't go around trying to kill people. 

The issue I see with the French idea....you'd have to have a judge standing there and completely willing to sign paperwork to push 'Falah' and 'Emir' off into a pretty secure facility and then commit them to serious mental rehab.  It might be a year, or even five years before they prove themselves to be able to handle reality.

But the next question comes up.....if you release the guy twelve months later, and he run out to blow up a school (actually killing folks).....what then?  Does that prove that these can't be ever trusted?

I see this getting the situation deeper and deeper into a mess that no one really wants to handle.  No one wants to send 'Emir' (age 18) off to sixty-odd years of confinement. Nor does anyone want to admit that more crazies attend one particular religion over the fifty-odd other religions.  

The fact that it's 99.999999-percent male 'mental cases'?  Well....that begs a question if this is a male-only problem. But we'd best not ask that one.

Cars and Data

 The new German coalition government (SPD-Green-FDP) wants to hold a conversation about collecting and sharing car 'data'.

What kind of 'data'?  Well....accident data, new car development, maintenance records, parts being used, etc.  

N-TV discussed this in the AM today.

Car companies happy about this?  No.

Who would be handling the data?  The suggestion is that some 'trusted agent' of the government would have viewing rights.  The mere mention of this idea....was a turn-off for the car companies.

For the insurance companies?  Well.....they kinda hint it this way....this 'data' doesn't belong the car companies themselves.  In truth, it belongs to each owner of each car.  The fact that you repair your brakes each and every time with ultra-cheap pads?  If the insurance companies figured this out and saw that you had two accidents over a 12-year period....involving braking?  Well....it might trigger them to alter your pricing for insurance.

With self-driving cars just around the corner....there's a vast amount of data that will come to exist, with no regulations currently existing to protect such data.

Typically, Germans get all hyper about the privacy of their data, and I'd suspect out of every ten Germans....seven of them would question the government over this agenda item.

I would even go and ask who 'exactly' is the trusted agent of the government?  In my years of Air Force service....this trusted agent business usually turned into a massive trust issue and people ended up abusing the position.  

Plastic Bag Environment Now

 Since early January 2022....if you walk into a German grocery....your plastic bag option is pretty limited.  

You can find thin and small bags over in the vegetable/fruit area, and in the meat department.  That's it.

At the check-out counter where you used to be able to 'buy' carry-home plastic bags?  That option is gone.  We are on a mission to save the Earth....so those bags are forbidden.

Your options?  First, you can put the items back into your cart....wheel it to the car, and place them in some big container to take home/into the house.  Second, you can still buy paper bags (usually 25 cents)....because they aren't 'evil' (at least not yet).  Third, you can tote your stuff in a picnic basket.  Fourth, you can buy and re-use the big heavy-duty fabric bag with the grocery logo on it (figure 3 to 4 Euro for this).

All of this leading to 'feeling' good about your grocery take-home habits?  More or less.  To be honest, on my list of 12,000 worries....this probably didn't rate on that list.  

Rare Police Killing This Morning

 We rarely have police officers in Germany shot and killed.  I know in the US....it's a daily thing, but here in Germany....it just rarely ever happens.  

This morning (Monday)....around 4 AM....on some rural road leading out of Kusel (the Pfalz area)....a police team of two did a standard traffic stop of a vehicle.  No one has suggested it was suspicious or under some observation.  Upon encountering the occupants of the vehicle stopped....both German cops are shot dead.

Regionally, this has turned into a 'hunt' situation and locals are a bit shocked over the activity.

The thing is....I'm fairly familiar with Kusel (we had a mortgage situation with the local bank there for twenty-odd years).  I've probably been in the town at least forty times in my life.

Kusel is twenty-odd miles NW of K-town, and I'd describe it as a fairly rural area....low-stress environment....maybe a population of 5,000 people.  Crime scene?  Almost non-existent up until this moment.

Speculation?  Well....in this rural area....between midnight and 5 AM....there's just no traffic out there at all.  The two cops just randomly selected this one car to pull over and shots are fired.  Just plain bad luck....but it begs the question...who'd be out at 4 AM and willing to fire on police?

Update: 1130 AM.  Well, it's curious....the reason given now for the stop of the vehicle is that they had some type of 'game' on the trunk of the car that they'd shot (assume a deer).  Hunter?  It's just odd....hunters out at 2 or 3 AM?  I just can't think of logical reason for mid-evening hunting experience.  The two cops (both dead now) had some time to call in and report gunfire coming back at them.   Hunt still going on for the shooter.  

Update: 1430 PM.  Police say that this all happened fast for one police member.....didn't have a chance to draw the weapon.  Second police member....drew the weapon and fired every round before he was shot dead.  Police now say that at least one of the suspects is 'known' to them but haven't said the name yet in public.  Massive search going on at this point.  One of the dead police was a student-policeman....had not qualified yet for status.  The search area now?  Saarland region (probably residence for one of the suspects).  Still just a hunter's scene with 'game' on the rear of the vehicle?  Yes, and it's just an odd situation which doesn't make any sense.  This is regarded as top three news items at this point for the nation..  

One of Those Odd Covid Stories

 Our regional public TV folks (Hessen's HR network) brought up this topic.

So you fall off a bike, burn yourself in the kitchen, or have a car-accident....upon arriving at the emergency room, they conduct a 'quickie-Covid' test.  There is now a trend where people were being admitted into German hospitals, with Covid....but they arrived for a whole other reason in the first place.

The Ministry of Social Affairs had a request to fulfill this information request.....so they investigated and found this remarkable trend.

The official numbers you get nightly on Covid and hospitalizations.....just aren't what you think they are.

The rough numbers here for people who aren't entering because of bad Covid?  Roughly 40-percent of Covid hospitalizations....are from a problem which was unrelated to Covid.

You can toss this around and shake your head, but it's the reality of the situation.  For all of 2020 and 2021....it was probably this way and no one really challenged the numbers.

The next step?  Well....in a logical world, you'd make two categories and say x-number showed up with no necessity for hospitalization other than they had plain Covid, and the second group being folks who had a critical problem at the hospital but Covid was just in the background.  

Even people with heart attacks arriving for hospital service and being a Covid number?  Yeah.....that as well.

You could have been in a knife fight in Frankfurt's bar district.....gotten clobbered by your wife for nasty talk....fallen off the bar stool and broke your arm....or even eaten some pretty crappy food for food-poisoning.....but when entering that hospital, you were tested and were pushed into the Covid-ward as a patient there mostly for that reason. 

You can laugh over this, but that's the way things went. 

Autobahn A45 Chatter

 For those who aren't familiar with A45....it's a 257 km (160 miles) long autobahn.....running from Dortmund in the north, to Frankfurt in the central region.  If you were around in the 1960s/1970s....you watched it being built.  There are 60 bridges on this autobahn.

Well...it's come up that the inspectors have all agreed and said that every single bridge has to be replaced.  

The general plan?  Over the next five to ten years....while the old bridges stand, the new bridges and entry/exit points will be added....then the old bridges will be torn down.

A massive effort?  Yeah, and likely to create a significant slow-down around each one of these bridges.

Covid Trouble Ahead

 So, if you sit down and view German nightly news and the Covid chatter....there is this interesting development approaching in March.  

There is expected to be a mandate on the Covid vaccination process....giving a German no choice (at least the politicians believe this)....to be vaxed-up.

In this process....a consequence has popped up and people are now starting to discuss this matter.  

Detlef Scheele ('boss' of the German Federal Employment Agency....the Job-Center folks)....has said that under the current chatter....an employer looking for a new employee and having one sent to them from the Job-Center....can cancel-out or refuse to accept a unvax'ed applicant.

So you sit and think over the implications.

You run a cafe and need two new waitresses.  The Job-Center says no problem and refers two over....which you discover in the interview process....neither are vaxed-up.  You refuse them.  So the Job-Center sends another two....neither of them are vaxed-up and you refuse them.  The Job-Center sends another two....neither of them are vaxed-up, and you refuse them.  You might eventually get two who are vaxed-up but discover that both have been fired at odd times for failing to show up for shifts.  In this case, you have to accept sub-standard employees....because of this whole vax situation and mandate.

You run a heating repair shop, and have an urgent situation to fill.  You've got three people referred over by the Job-Center and will interview them.  Two are fully qualified....answer each question correctly, and are non-vax.  The third guy shows marginal skills but is vaxed-up, and he's the one you hire.....fully expecting his period to be short-lived.  

If this mandate business does occur, I expect a unemployment crisis in Germany for a period of six to twelve months.  

I also expect the EU to step in at some point by mid-summer and mandate that an employer can't ask Covid vax questions of any potential employee....complicating this matter even more.  

This whole mandate business might be an interesting business to view for 2022.  

The Humor of Covid Ban-Rules

 I read this piece in Focus today, and will relate it in a simplified version.

Germany has the 3G  rule (meaning you operate a business and the customers must be either vaxed-up, recovered in the past three months, or tested in the past 24 hours).

So off in Mühlheim, a small town between Frankfurt and Hanau....there was this haircutter shop.

The gal running it....kept the front-door locked.  You only got entry if you had an appointment (thus presenting your evidence of being 3G upon entry).

So one day in the past week....the town inspector (Ornungsamt) came to the door.  He wanted to inspect the haircutter and the customer. 

The haircutter said 'fine'.....but then said show us your 3G situation before I open the locked door.

Well....he didn't want to do that.  

You can ask forty-odd questions, but generally.....you don't ever challenge an inspector or audit guy.  In some way, this whole Covid thing has challenged people to question the landscape around them.  

This 'discussion' must have gone on for a number of minutes, and the customer readily agreed (apparently) with the haircutter....just show us the 3G situation.

So at some point, with the inspector's ID apparent that he was a legit inspector....the customer went up to the window and showed the vax card.  The audit guy just never wanted to go the extra step to prove himself 3G compliant.

You can laugh over the whole ban-rule process, but it's reached a level where people are now thinking over each step of the process and they might ask the authorities to comply as well.

The Sinking 'Beer-Ship'

 Since Covid started up (spring 2020)....there are a thousand things in Germany which have been damaged by the virus.  Beer production is one of those items.

If you open up any weekend shopping discount circular.....there's typically a entire page where eight to twelve beer brands are offering their product at a reduced rate.  This discount is more than what you'd typically expect.

Reasons for the beer problem?  A lot of pubs and bars are marginally functioning.  By the time you add up the ban-rules and past use of curfews....there's just fewer people in bars who drink.

For a German brewery to survive?  Well....they need people to stock up on beer at the grocery/drink shop, and drink at home.  To be honest, this strategy is marginally working and beer simply isn't 'moving' at the pace you had in 2019.

By the end of year one of Covid in Germany....there was a 5.5-percent drop in beer sales.....which hurt the industry greatly.

The longer this goes on?  That's the curious question to ask.  Various breweries probably have a 'drop-dead' point in their business plan and are trying to just survive until Covid ends.  

Presently, there are around 5,500 brands/types of beer in Germany.  I would take an educated guess that if Covid lingers around for an entire decade.....you'd probably see a quarter of the brands/types retired.  It's not a crisis or Avenger-type emergency....but it's probably a negative event in the making.  

Covid Chatter

 At some point early 2021....there was an obvious point where Channel One (ARD) and Channel Two (ZDF) (both public TV outlets)....stopped bringing the CDU Health Minister (Spahn) on for Covid chatter.  

Both did it at the same time, and one had to wonder if this was a coordinated episode.  Who they both turned to, for Covid chatter?  Karl Lauterbach (the SPD health expert/doctor).  

Lauterbach, for those who haven't seen him in action before....would be deemed a fairly intelligent guy....who can dump thirty-odd facts on you in a 7-minute interview....but often leads you to the most extreme view or medical opinion.  You can respect the guy, but often feel like you want a second opinion of a lesser nature.

All throughout 2021....the two networks allowed Lauterbach to come on a good bit and rarely ever challenged him.  It was nothing like the treatment they'd dumped upon Spahn for 2020 or the early 2021 period.

Well....this week, I watched a ZDF late news segment with Lauterbach, and sharp questions started to get thrown back at him.  

Lauterbach's luck running out?  It wouldn't surprise me if by mid-2022.....the two public TV units determine that they need a new fresh face for Covid, and dump Lauterbach as the Covid speaker.  

More of the KfW Chaos

 I essayed a piece earlier in the week over the KfW problems (the government investment/credit arm for special projects 'blessed' by the German government).  Well....other issues have arrived.

I noticed in Focus this morning....from private home 'customers'/builders, who wanted the energy efficient homes and better loan deals....there's 24,000 customers in the line for the home loans....but the account is now slammed shut (figure in the 7-billion Euro range for money needed to fix these 24,000).

Pissing off a lot of builders and private individuals?  Oh yeah.....with most looking at the Green Party's Habeck who slammed the door shut when the shortfall was announced.  

As the Focus piece pointed out....a fair number of folks actually had the renovation project planned out, and even had permits from the city authorities ready to go.  No cash now?  The whole plan will halt right there, until they can alternate and more expensive loan deals.

All of this hurting the environmental image/brand?  I would suggest that people are standing there and trying to figure out who set them up and discussing blame to be assigned.

You can view this in three ways.....there's 24,000 homes/families who are extremely peeved.  There's probably another 100,000 renovation or builders who are peeved because of a low period now approaching for 2022.  And there's an unknown number of people who were thinking about the KfW loan deal....perhaps figuring to apply later in 2022....who will now discount the situation entirely.  Politically, it's a 'stink-bomb' thrown into midst of the public.  

Numbers

 It's a pretty rough day for the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) on Covid issues.  They came to admit that the precise number of Covid infections (being readily reported for about 18 months and regarded as 'gospel').....is no more.

Most of this blames shifts over to the idea that no one is 'entitled' to PCR tests anymore.  Prioritization is taking place, and what they can deliver is basically a ball-park number.  Reliable?  Well....prior to this day....things were rock-solid, and I'd say that most people are just shaking their head at this.

I don't really consider it a crisis or even a mini-crisis.  

At some point around a year ago....Mainz University went and did a test study....finding (at least regionally).....that a fair number of people said they never had Covid.....yet showed antibodies in their system.  So by their estimate....for every ten folks who did develop Covid and tested positive....there were four more who never had symptoms.....never tested...yet had a light case of Covid.  So the real numbers talked about nightly by the government folks....were just accepted as absolute, when they weren't that absolute.

People will get over this, and simply chalk it up to another humor part of the German Covid story.  

Poll Showing Shift in Public

 Welt went out and did a poll for their weekend edition and it's an interesting question....if you could vote today (a new German election, with Merz now as the face of the CDU)....how different would things be?

The poll says that the CDU-CSU group is now three points ahead of the SPD.  If you combined the SPD-Green-FDP coalition in this imaginary election....they'd only cross the 46-percent line....meaning they couldn't win.

What it says to some degree....the old CDU 'face' (being Laschet) just didn't impress people.  Merz?  Yes....he's picking public support.

Looking ahead for the rest of 2022?  I'd suggest that Merz will continue to rebuild the party, and probably add five to eight more points by early January 2023.  It doesn't change the government, but it does paint it weaker than they should be.

Q-And-A: 28 Jan 2022

 1.  This 3G Covid regulation on trains (everyone has to be vaxed-up, recovered or tested)....leading to violent encounters?

Well....N-TV brought this up in the AM, and the train employees are left to enforce the 3G business....with this leading to violence.  It's likely to lead to more police being deployed on trains, with more stress/chaos to be 'normal' on train rides.

2.  Are Germans worried over the Russia natural gas situation?

Poll was done by Forsa....with 87-percent of Germans saying they were either somewhat or significantly worried about their natural gas situation.  

Helping the Ukrainians by giving them more weapons?  Well....seven out of ten Germans said 'no'....don't give any weapons to the Ukraine which might escalate the problem.

3.  Does the US or EU have any real authority over the Nord Stream II Russia-Germany pipeline?  

No.  Once this distribution company was identified as a German-based organization....the last barrier was complete to wrap up the paperwork with the Germans, and turn on the pipeline.  Neither the US or the EU have any real 'say' in the on-off button business.  

4.  Ralph Brinkhouse leaving the CDU Chairmanship position a big deal?

Brinkhouse was probably the last 'ornament' of the Merkel period around, and from this point on....it's Merz's ballgame.  It's amazing to view the past six months, and how the whole Merkel team have been 'let go'.

How Stupid Rumors Start

 Back around two months ago in the city of Wiesbaden.....a story started up over a new US Army unit which was going to be created out of thin air at the local post.

The unit?  56th Artillery Command.

Well...at the time, the local press (not the Army) came to make some suggestion that this had a connection to nukes or missiles.

So for weeks, this rumor has spun around.

Today, the US Army, via the city mayor.....said that the 56th would have no rockets or missiles in Wiesbaden, period.  

Where the rumor started?  With the local press.....I would imagine.  Maybe they assumed artillery could mean some meaning of missiles.  

The Army guys laughing over this?  Somewhere in the mix....there's probably three or four devious Lieutenants who are making up some fake missile-like rocket on the back of some boat trailer, and hauling around at night....with Christmas lights blinking on it.  That will start the next rumor.  

One Way To Spend 60-Million Euro

 It came out this week in Germany that the federal Health Ministry has invested around 60-million Euro (roughly $70-mil US) into a scheme for PR reasons....to get people to vax-up.

This is mostly 30-to-60 second videos and bus-stop posters....which would have some promi, or some catchy phrase....which would turn you 'inside-out' and trigger you to rush down to the vax-center (it'd probably have to rate as a Jesus-moment, for those of us from the southern part of the US).

News media attention over this?  It's fairly mixed.  Some suggest it's way too late (should have been done in mid-summer 2021).  Some suggest that it'll invite comical cynicism from the anti-vax crowd.  A few suggested that graffiti commentary will quickly appear on the posters as they are placed.  

Around three years ago in my region (Mainz/Wiesbaden), the regional governments spent a fair amount of money on sexually-transmitted disease posters (probably around sixty of these in the public arena).  These were all cartoon-based and were mostly aimed at guys refusing to wear condoms.   I noticed after a month or so....various graffiti comments were put up and comically defused the value of the original posters.

Is there a chance if you saw various big-name soccer players hyping Covid immunizations.....that you as a non-vax person....would change your mind?

Is there some chance if a 1980s era retired punk-rocker came out hyping Covid immunizations....that you as a non-vax person....would change your mind?

Is there a way that some German intellectual could bring up world peace, then hype Covid immunizations....that you as a non-vax person....would change your mind?

Is there a hot lusty German reality show gal who could bring up Covid immunizations, and could convince you as a non-vax person....to change your mind?

Maybe this type of propaganda tool worked in the 1980s, and especially in old DDR (East Germany)....but I just see the sixty-million Euro flushed down the toilet with virtually no real change on numbers.  

The Numbers Problem

 I noticed a brief piece in Welt this morning.....someone finally stood up in the news media of Germany and asked the Ministry of Health.....how many vaccination certificates (the one you get after the second vax to say you are immunized) exist.  Then they asked....on the number of immunizations.

There is a discrepancy of 42-million 'EXTRA' certificates in the mix.  Where they came from?  The Ministry of Health is dodgy about this.....saying it goes beyond fake certificates but they aren't clear about this matter.  

The concept of one person....one vax certificate....has yet to arrive in Germany.  

A comparison?

It'd be like you asking asking the New York Yankees on how many players they have on the field (normally can only be nine), when observing eleven players standing on the field.

Is this something to worry about?  In my Air Force years.....we were always told 'more is better', so maybe it's a super-positive thing that there are 42-million extra vaxed-up people around in Germany.

What is the KfW 'Affair'?

 Well....to lay this developing story in Germany....there is this state-operated developmental organization called KfW (Kreditanstalt Für Wiederaufbau or the German Development Bank).  It's been around since the end of WW II and supposed to operate as a investment 'tool' for the federal government.  

My description goes this way.....if the government prioritized things to have one-hundred bridges built.....they'd arrange money in a KfW account to loan out to towns or states at a heavily-discounted rate....to entice you to build the bridges.    

Focus laid out a decent explanation and I'd recommend a read of their article.  But to summarize this....in the past couple of years, the Merkel coalition had this strategy to promote climate protection.  

They basically said....all these news homes being built...ought to be built with a lot of conditions to save on heat usage (meaning extra cost).  So the carrot here on the stick....if you bought this energy-sufficient house to be built....you could get this nifty loan via KfW (reduced rate).

So the new government (SPD-Green-FDP) walked in and took their offices in January....basically to discover that the KfW deal was so popular.....that the tool was running out of funds.  

The Economics/Climate Protection Minister (Habeck, Green Party) stood up last week and said 'halt'.....no more loans via KfW, because the money isn't there.  An immediate halt?  OH YEAH....there was zero warning about this.  Some folks were at the tail end of preparing the paperwork, and this has taken a major 'hit' with those folks. 

The accusation?  A ton of applications occurred in January, which the government apparently didn't expect.  Personally, I don't buy this story as it is currently told.

The push to put energy priorities into new housing projects?  Well...I would say that you can forget about this trend for 2022.  People will sort through the mess....delete the various extra cost items, and go for a regular house, with normal conditions.  

Screwing the Green Party plan?  It would make me wonder if the CDU had this situation brewing in mid-2021, and figured to leave the mess for the new government to clean up.  As for Habeck's handling of this?  It'll be discussed for a week or two....as a minor embarrassment.  

This Compulsory Vaccination Chatter

 Yesterday was a full blast 'talk' in the Bundestag over the idea of compulsory vaccinations.  I'd suggest a read of Focus's article, to highlight some of perceptions.

I'll offer six observations here:

1.  If you go back a full year....both Chancellor Merkel and candidate Scholz (now Chancellor) said 'NO' to the idea of compulsory vaccinations.  Neither wanted to get so deep into this topic that you might divide the nation in a serious and toxic way.  If you gaze at current numbers...it's roughly three-quarters of the nation vaxed-up, with boostered folks near 50-percent (it's kinda leveled off since Xmas).

2.  From January of 2021.....there's a EU resolution sitting there (passed) that says you have the right to the vaccine, and a right to decline the vaccine.  To mount some compulsory situation....you'd have legal challenges done by the EU court system.

3.  The minute you get boosted-up, there's this clock ticking and the antibodies are on some downward sloop.  Enough evidence exists to show that chunky-people (yes, fat folks) have a steeper decline than slim-Jim type folks.  So if you went by science and facts.....you'd probably have to line up the chunky-people every ten to twelve weeks for another vax situation.  I don't see that being a happy or agreeable national strategy.

4.  The general catch on how they'd enforce this?  Tax you so you pay more.  If you look at the economic burden of people presently in this recession period....this would really sell in a negative way.  

5.  Just this odd factor....about every month....there's some massive change to the Covid ban-rules, which comes out of nowhere.  If you were to compare this to a Monopoly game, which has roughly 30 general rules upon starting the game....presently at the two-year point....we've added 500 different rules....extinguishing 100 of them in some weird way, and insisted that the rules change....state-by-state.   

6.  Finally, there's this current mandate that all medical personnel and care-taker personnel (rest-homes) have to be vaxed-up by 15 March.  There's a fair amount of evidence to show this mandate (supposed to be 100-percent) will not be achieved, and in some areas of Germany (particularly the eastern side)....it might create a massive show-down in medical services and rest-home operations....with people leaving their profession.  It wouldn't shock me if some neighboring countries saw this as a opportunity to 'poach' some of the nurses.  

In the end, I just don't see this going well.  Almost a quarter of the nation isn't buying into the vax business, and to think you have some magical power to make them comply.....is worrisome. If this were a case where 97-percent of the population were vaxed-up and such a small group to contend with?  Maybe it'd have better odds.  

Inflation Chatter

 I noticed the German business news reported this morning that the inflation rate for Germany....expected for 2022....is 3.3-percent.....easily being the highest rate in 30 years.

So if you had some hope that things would improve this year?  Forget that and settle for more economic problems.

The Max Otte Situation

 Lets start with who is Max Otte?

The best description is that he's a economist-professor-politician, who holds both US and German citizenships.  On commerce and money-matters....he's highly regarded.  He's in his late fifties, and has published a number of books.  If you held a roundtable meeting to discuss economic issues....he's one of the top five people I'd invite to the meeting.  

So in the past week....the AfD Party (regarded as evil by the mainstream parties)....talked him (he was a CDU Party member) into being a AfD candidate for the Office of the German Presidency.  

Naturally, this drew a lot of negative chatter from the CDU, and they want him dismissed from the party ASAP.

All of this....drawing national attention?  Yes.

Chance even of winning the Presidency nomination?  Zero.  But it will draw more attention to the election than expected.  

Soccer Woes

 Yesterday, I noticed in sports news here in Germany....the Bundesliga (soccer major league), and the clubs are having some meetings to discuss the economic decline of their 'business'.

They are actually reviewing the idea of suing the federal government, and the various state governments.  

Why?

They have a business model, which says you have income from three areas....the TV contract which they all share, individual stadium attendance, and the merchandise. Presently there's a limit to fans in stadiums....5,000 to 10,000.  To be honest, the Health Ministry wanted to have 'ghost-games' (no fans in the stadiums).

So financially, they can't survive with this fan limit.

Will the court system even allow a lawsuit like this?  Unknown. 

This is a situation where I'd like to see the EU step in and say....if any government limits seats, then the government itself is responsible for paying the 'fare' of the empty seats to the club.  

Going Back To Six Months for Recovered

 Over the past two weeks, I've essayed a bit over the 'Covid-recovered' status....being shifted from six months down to three months, by the federal Health Ministry.  A lot of Germans are asking stupid questions.

Well...today, the EU decided to get into the middle of this, and they wrote a EU definition.....'Recovered from Covid means six months'. 

Screwing the German Health Ministry over?  Yes, without any doubt.

Some Germans will have a laugh over this....but it's obvious that the German federal government is no longer the 'big dog' on the block.  

You Have To Be Vigilant Over What You Utter

 Not that I'm into German reality TV, but for the past three nights....I've viewed the RTL network's 'Jungle Camp'.  Basically....eleven less-than-average promi Germans....sitting in a jungle camp in South Africa, under somewhat chaotic conditions.  

Last night....the Iranian-German model-Instragram gal.....had some chaotic situation going on....arguing with the one single black-German.  For the three days....they've had this confrontational situation brewing.

Well....the Iranian-German gal finally uttered the B-B word (racial negative word for blacks).  Things went downhill quickly.

I'd say around 30 to 40 minutes after this....the producers said 'done' and brought the Iranian-German gal out.  

The problem I see....this is all done as a stressful event, and folks are not sleeping enough, and eating basically a diet of beans and rice.  

For some of them....it's difficult to deal with other promi folks, and it's just a creative situation where you might utter some toxic word.  You could throw a hundred Germans into some mess like this....with more than half cutting loose and saying something about women, gays, ethnic groups, or nutcases.  

These days...just uttering the word 'Bitxh' might get you into pretty serious trouble.

Covid Recovered Chatter

 It's kinda funny to bring this up.

The German Health Ministry....last week....reworded the regulation on Covid-recovered.  Prior to last week, if you were Covid-recovered (meaning you had it and got over it).....you had a six-month period where you could enter pubs, restaurants, and public places....just as much as a vaccinated person.  

This fell into the 2G understanding for the public.  On the 6th month, and 1-day moment....you were no longer 2G, and it'd been around for almost an entire year.

So last week, the Ministry said.....change to that rule....instead of six months, you are 'recovered' for only three months.

Virus experts then asked....where is the study you base this on, and there was mostly silence. 

Then someone noticed an odd thing.  The rule regarding Bundestag people (the guys and gals standing in the German parliament building)?  It STAYED at six months.  Only the general public were downgraded.

In the past day or two....new questions have arisen...why is the public treated one way and Bundestag members another way?

Normally, in this type of situation....you'd go and have a truth-commission formed up and detail to the public why there are two different rules.  

German News Bits

 1.  NTV reports today....out of every three Covid PCR tests reviewed....only one is positive.  Another curious thing they mentioned....the lab capability currently across the entire nation?  They are at 95-percent capability for the PCR tests.

2.  A district in Saxony has stood up and said they won't enforce the nurse/care-taker mandate from the federal government that vaccinations are mandatory as of 15 March.   I expect more districts over the next month to take the same approach and refuse to follow the federal guidelines.  

3.  Federal Health Minister says when Omicron lessens (probably within four weeks)....harsh rules will be lessened.  

4.  For those who didn't know.....all of the German government aircraft (under the Bundeswehr Air Force) are based out of Bonn.  When a government VIP requires a trip....the plane takes off from Bonn....lands in Berlin, and takes the individual to the point in Europe or the world that he desires.  Then he/she returns, and the land takes off from Berlin to land at 'home' (Bonn).

In the past year, this means 336 'empty' flights occurred.  N-TV talked a bit over this situation today.  Various environmental folks are peeved about this and want this practice to halt ASAP.

What halts placement of the aircraft at BER (the new airport)?  Well....lack of infrastructure.  When will the problem be resolved?  Current gov't estimate is 2034.

You can laugh about this dynamic, but no within the Merkel government for 16 years....made a big deal about this.  And the new government is just standing there....shaking their head.  

Heidelberg Shooting

 Happened yesterday at the university area (medical studies).  

What one can generally say....some 18-year old kid (attendee at the school) brought an illegally purchased rifle and shotgun into the college. Result?  One person dead, and three wounded.  Episode occurred within a lecture hall.

Shooter ran out of the building, and later shot himself.

What is known about the shooter?  German kid, from Mannheim area, and had been noted in the past for mental issues.  Some text that he did write....to his dad prior to the shooting....indicated that some people 'had to be punished'.  How he meant this?  Unknown. 

Politicians appeared last night a fair bit to talk over this, but each time they came to motivation....there wasn't much they could say.  Since the two weapons were illegally bought....it's just not much tightening of laws to make people happy.  

Chatter on Heat/Electricity

 Last night (Monday), I watched about 30 minutes of ARD's (Channel One) Hart Aber Fair (Hard But Fair) chat forum (live).  Topic?  Heat and energy prices escalating.

For those who haven't heard the chatter....over the past six months, prices have escalated a good bit (figure around each family now paying 2,000 Euro or $2,400 extra per year).

So they went around the group (prominent journalists/politicians).  

They are all mostly in shock.  

Some kind of government 'gift-money' to hold back the anger?  Well....you can discuss the matter but I seriously doubt that it's more than 300 Euro for the average family.

Potential for the cost to escalate even more by next winter?  Oh, I'd give that a 50-50 chance of happening.  All of this puts huge 'pain' on regular families and pushes inflation even more.  It wouldn't shock me if you a 2019 listing for cost, and by 2024.....see that 2019 bill quadruple.  

My Thoughts on the Ukraine: 24 Jan 2022

 1.  Odds of Russian Special Forces personnel already in the Ukraine?  I'd give it a 100-percent chance that at least 300 of these guys are there, and have a targets list established.

2.  Odds of Russian Special Forces personnel already in Germany, and France?  I'd give that a 100-percent chance.  If NATO reacts in some way....there would likely be weird targeting going o (ships sunk in the entry of Bremerhaven's port, fuel storage that supports US/German military bases, car-bombs).

3.  German support of a NATO mission?  Heavily divided, and a fair number of SPD/Green Party members will not support German military action.  

4.  A fair amount of public shock that a reserve of natural gas does not exist.

5.  I don't think the military agenda of the Russians is that huge, and you might only be talking about a 50 by 100 mile area being 'taken'.

6.  If any forward deployment of Russian tactical missiles occurs....a fair number of Germans will ask how the hell this all came to be.

7.  Public view of Biden from the European prospective will drop like a rock.

8.  Both Bulgaria and Romania will ask a lot of questions if NATO does little to nothing over this.  

9.  A lot of Omicron will go around with NATO and Russian soldiers.

Book Fair Story

 Marc Reichwein wrote an interesting piece for Welt over the weekend, and it centers over the Frankfurt Book Fair (held yearly).  It's typically a five-day event....held in October, and new books are presented in this period.

I should emphasize here....books of all types are presented....fiction and non-fiction.  The spectrum from the non-fiction.....from far-left, to far-right.

This idea from Jutta Ditfurth has been presented.  Ditfurth, for the record....is a book-writer and politician.   The idea?  She wants far-right books to be cancelled out.  The book fair folks aren't agreeable to the general idea of cancellation.

Reichwein is reporting that Ditfurth is suggesting now that the registration list (the new books to be presented) be sent early to some Antifa folks.

This likely to generate a more politicized book fair?  Well....yeah.

There's more than a quarter-million people who come to the book fair, and since the car show business has been 'hunted-out' of Frankfurt.....the book fair is the last four-star fair show in the city.

The odds that the book fair itself might be 'hunted-out'?  It might take ten years but I could see several different ways that politicization occurs, and demonstrations are injected into the book show business.   

These acts scaring visitors?  I might go and suggest that people would feel threatened and deem the show as requiring more security....which would make a lot of people laugh that you need three-hundred private security folks to hold a book fair.

Wild West Evening in Wiesbaden

 On the far west end of Wiesbaden....is the suburb of Dotzheim.  I'd describe as a quiet neighborhood area....adjacent to the Schmidt Clinic/Hospital....and on the edge of the troublesome area of town (the westend).

Last night....if you follow the city news folks....an older guy (68) returned to his home....got out of the car, and then got thumped on the head (pistol butt likely used).

The attack target?  The old guy's handbag.  The old guy made some attempt to halt the robbery.

At this point, with the old guy laying on top of the bag....the attacker went to kicking the guy in order to get to the handbag.

Neighbors or people walking by....now came and raised a fuss.  The attacker?  He ran off, but not before firing off a couple of rounds (one hitting the window of the car).

Police looked for the guy....never finding him.  

Wiesbaden is one of the few cities in German with a zero-tolerance for weapons zone (basically the shopping district....after 9 PM).  At the rate of these violent acts, I'd probably anticipate the entire city made a zero-tolerance zone for weapons from sundown to sun-up before the end of 2022.  

Stuff like this happening in the 1970s/1980s?  Never.....with people commenting about the change of character over the past twenty years.  There are more drugs in town today, and if you were looking for shady characters....the city probably has a population of 500 of them.  

Old Town Frankfurt

 Our regional public TV folks (HR)....did a piece on Frankfurt and the old town area (Romer).  

For those who lived around Frankfurt in the 1970s/1980s....it was an interesting area with some history tied to them.  Tour buses would drive by and dump off international tourists.  Most people would say that it still had some marginal resemblance to the 1920s.

Somewhere along 2012, the city and developers put in a ton of money....developing the 'new' old town of Frankfurt.

So a topic of discussion has started up....does old town Frankfurt still exist, or is this new developed area like some Disney-Land 'show' (my term)?

I can remember the old town area of 1978/1979, and was fascinated with the rebuild effort after WW II (most of the buildings were destroyed).  

When this project was finished.....I walked around in 2019.  It is supposed to have the look and feel of the era before WW II.  I would tend to argue that it's a tourist magnet today and more of a show-piece. 

The buses still pull up....at least before Covid arrived, and there's a minimum of 5k tourists a day who walk through the old town area.  If you stopped for a ice cream or coffee with cake.....yes, you will pay a more hefty price than you would have ten years ago.

Do I still recommend the walk?  Yes, it's worth two hours to walk the district and take in the 'look' and 'feel' of what Frankfurt old town was like before WW II.

Would I buy any tourist crap from the shops?  No.  

And I would note this....it's a 15-minute walk from the old town area to Sachsenhausen pub district, which is still an aged area that has not changed in one-hundred years.  Go have a beer or two after the old town experience.  

CDU Political Chatter

 In the past week, the new 'boss' of the CDU Party (Merkel's old group) has consolidated power.  Friedrich Merz is firmly in charge.

Newest rule handed down?  For all future 'big' meetings of the party.....cellphones will be forbidden within the rooms.  He says that he wants more people talking in the room between themselves and not worried or thinking of surveillance going on.

As for the dynamics of Merz?  He's absolutely NOT Merkel and leans more to the right than she did.

What you can take out of this?  I'd say the criticism of the SPD-Green-FDP coalition will be sharp, and center on economic failures/taxation issues. Come the 2025 election....Merz will be the guy running against Scholz, and it'll be a totally different election than the 2021 episode.  

Grocery Trend

 We have a trend starting up in Hessen, with a particular grocery operation....Tegut.  HR told part of the story, which I think it will lead to some changes in society.

So presently in Germany....you have two types of grocery operations.  There is the mega store (like you see in Real or Hit, or Globus).  This is a operation of 15k square feet, and will have a lot of items besides food.  Then you have the normal sized shop which is around 5k square feet.....which carries the essentials and a fair amount of beverages (beer, juice, wine, and various waters).  

Tegut decided to test the market system with what I'd call a 'mini-shop'.  Best description?  A modular Quonset-hut sized building....maybe 20 ft wide and 60 ft long.  There will be 950-odd items on 50 square meters of space.  That's about 5-percent of what you'd find in a typical normal grocery operation.

So here's the thing....it's unmanned.  It's open 24 hours a day....unstaffed.  Some truck would drive up once a day....reload the shelves, and tidy up.

You wake up at 2 AM....feeling an urge for something....throw your clothing on, and walk out for two blocks to the 'mini' shop for your urge.

Security?  Well....you have to be a 'club-member'....meaning you loaded an App on your phone, and gave the grocery a fair amount of data....including your payment method.  You come to the door....allowing a scan of the phone data, and they recognize you....allowing entry.  You pick up the five items...scan them, and your App pays the store.

My impression?  Outside of Frankfurt and Wiesbaden....in towns 30 km northward....you find a lot of villages that have lost their local grocery operation over the past two decades.  Same trend for pharmacy operations and banks.  I think these mini-stores would have an appeal and probably prosper in some fashion.  

One odd thing about Tegut in general....if you asked me on 'pricing' which grocery is usually more expensive than the others....it's Tegut.  I'm not saying they are super-expensive, but if you shopped at the typical top ten operations in Germany and bought a dozen-odd things....you will pay 3-to-5 percent more than the majority of shops.  They are picky where they put their grocery operations, and there's typically no real competition against them for at least a mile or two.  

Ukraine Observations

 1.  The US told its embassy staff to get family members out of Kiev by Monday....either fly out or drive out.  Maybe they know the schedule of the Russians?  

2.  Germans firing the chief inspector of the German Navy?  Yes.  The admiral came out and voiced the comment that Putin is looking for respect, and in a blunt statement....the admiral said that this respect has a no cost factor.  I think he meant if you showed some respect....no incursion would occur.....but it wasn't seen that way.  Meanwhile....Ukraine demanded the German ambassador to come and explain things.  A big deal?  If you lined up the top 500 German government officials....you'd find a wide feeling existing....some actually supporting Russia, and some supporting the Ukraine. 

3.  Spain currently?  They sent a frigate and a minesweeper out to the Black Sea area (probably to arrive by Monday).  They've openly discussed sending a fighter squadron to Romania.  

4.  Difference between an invasion and an incursion?  There's not exactly a lot of difference.  Typically, an incursion refers to taking a piece of some country....it might be a 20-mile by 20-mile area....it might be larger than that.  

Do the Russians have enough strength to take all of the Ukraine?  I seriously doubt it.  

5.  Germans in the middle of this?  You have a coalition government composed of the SPD, Greens and FDP.  Most of the upper echelon lean left from the SPD/Green side.  It's more likely that zero military support would occur under this current Scholz government, however....with the FDP standing there....they might 'yank on the chain' of the SPD/Greens, and demand NATO support.  If that failed?  The FDP might suggest they leave the coalition.....meaning the government would fall unless they partnered up with the CDU.  My humble guess is that the CDU would demand the exact same script as the FDP.  

Yes, this might get real interesting.

6.  Natural gas flow a problem in Germany?  The Russians have trimmed the flow through the current pipeline.....so there's efforts to get more flow from the Norwegians.  Scholz met with Store last week....that was the chief topic discussed.....no one has said much since then.

7.  China in all of this?  They've moved up on the customer list for the natural gas that Germany isn't getting.  Also, if you haven't noticed in the past couple of months....China has been more aggressive on the Taiwan issue.  

8.  US militarily weak?  There might be a perception that between the Covid-affect, logistics issues, and President Biden's team....the US might be seen as weak.  

9.  Chief 72-hour strategy of the Russians?  I'd guess target the air defense, go after command and control throughout the Ukraine, destroy fuel depots, attack the runways of the four bases east of the Dnieper River, and establish control over a chunk of land on the far SE side of the Ukraine (probably a 50 by 100 mile area).  I'd also suggest that this threat of moving nuke tactical missiles into the Belarus might occur shortly after this 72-hour period....which would freak the Germans out a bit.

A plan with only 15 days of military activity?  I would go and suggest that this is a fairly limited scale operation and is intended to reach an end-point within two weeks, then sit for a month or two on 'negotiations'.  The fact that the Russian military might be sitting there for more than a year?  Wouldn't shock me.  

10.  This threat of using sanctions against Russia?  They've gotten their commercial 'partner' with China, and unless they agreed to participate in sanctions.....then it really won't matter.  

11.  All of this being done under the shadow of Covid?  Well....yeah, that is a part of this discussion as well.  

12.  Sky News talks about some rumor they've heard....that the current PM of the Ukraine would be targeted, and a 'name' is already being surfaced as the replacement guy....being 'friendly' toward Putin?  Facts?  Zero.  If the Russians did go and terminate the current PM of the Ukraine....it'd change the dynamics in a serious way and be more than just an incursion.

13.  Most serious threat since the missile crisis over Cuba in the early 1960s?  Yeah....you can regard this as a bigger deal than even the invasion of Kuwait or the war years in the Balkans.

14.  All of this going back to the fall of 2013, and the way the EU-Ukraine trade deal fell apart?  More or less.

Once the whole 'free-trade' deal was laid out....it came under the eyes of Russia, and they felt the Ukraine was getting an unbelievable deal....with NATO protection likely coming in short fashion.  

A screw-up on the EU part?  I would suggest that a mini-version of this deal....only to involve agricultural products....would have been a better first step and lessen Russia's panic over the situation.

15.  If the NATO naval force reacts in this incursion?  That's a bigger question.  The force would have to place itself in the far NE section of the Black Sea, with limited assets.  If they attempted to run air defense in protection of that region....it's going to draw targeting status of the Russians.  An attack on any of the vessels would trigger a bigger mess.  

16.  France in this?  Well....there's an election coming up in April.  Macron can't be seen as 'weak'.  So there's going to be more action than you'd typically see from France.

17.  Russia having dealt the cards and forced into an incursion because there's no easy exit situation?  Yeah, that might be one way to view this.  Adding to this....the perception of the US currently is 'weak'.  The Russians might argue that Biden isn't in charge and there's some alternate form of government going on with Biden just as a figure-head.  If Putin were to make a public statement like this....it'd draw a lot of attention and beg questions if Putin were right about this.

18.  So, as to the date of this incursion?  I think the US has some date in their mind and it's in the next ten days after Monday.  

Observation

 I noticed yesterday (Friday) that SWR (the public TV network for the SW of Germany)....announced that with Omicron around....they aren't sure that they can run their news or forum shows.  So they gave out this warning....things may occur over the next week or two where some 'package' (maybe some documentary from three years ago....might be the temp 'filler') occurs rather than the planned show.

A big deal?  No.  From the dozen-odd public minor networks....I would expect virtually all of them to be this way.  

In fact, it's a shock to me that the two big public TV networks (ARD, ZDF) haven't had something like this to occur already.

Is Omicron scaring folks?  I don't see it that way.  Last night....my wife and I ended at some local grocery at 7 PM....with the normal number of customers around.  I admit....I did the alcohol rub upon entering and exiting the place.  But it's the same atmosphere that you would have noticed in 2020.  

Germany: Q-and-A: 22 Jan 2022

 1.  The odds of the coalition government having the votes to pass mandated vaxing for all Germans?

Well....I noticed in Welt (the newspaper) some chatter over this, and it's obvious now that the votes aren't there from the SPD-Green-FDP coalition government.  Unless the Linke Party, or the CDU-CSU folks vote agreement....this whole fuss over mandating vaccinations will falter.

However....come the middle of March....the mandate for the medical/caretaker professions will occur (already passed), and we will get a chance to see people cooperate, or leave their profession.

2.  What's this 'hybrid-war' expression being tossed around in the German media over Russia and the Ukraine?

'Hybrid-war' simply means that it's being viewed (if it occurs) as something less than a regular war.  I'm guessing that some US Army strategists are sitting there....sipping a beer, and thinking....'war' is 'war'.  

To make this simple...hybrid war gets down to a point where conventional ideas over warfare dwindle.  Things are more 'scripted'.

You end up with tactics that you'd normally only discuss in the classroom.  

You have meetings continually discussing peace or diplomacy.....where a thousand man-hours of talks achieve only eight lines of text.  

You have politicians talking constantly with news media or social media players....little sense is made but some gal gets 300k 'likes' in one hour.  

You have terror group 'A' doing these acts, while terror group 'B' is countering those acts....then waking up to find that one single person/group funds terror group 'A' and 'B'.  

Finally, you wake up to realize that some mafia gangs/clans....are a bigger participant than the actual Army or terror groups themselves.  

3.  What is the smokes tax in Germany currently at?

As of mid-summer 2021....the tax on a pack of smokes is 3.30 Euro (with escalation set for 2022 and 2023.....ten cents per year).  

For reference, the Dutch tax per pack, is 4.83 Euro.  

4.  Do German nurses who work for private clinics have an exemption from the mandated vaccination rule created for medical/care-taker people?

Yes.....this kinda came out in the past week.  And yes, there is some discussion over the idea of forcing the private contract nurses to vax-up.  

Is 'Schwarzfahren' Racist?

 The German word 'Schwarzfahren'....when translated into English....means 'fare dodging' or if you took it in the literal translation 'black driving'.  It's the guy who boards a bus or train....without a ticket.

In the last couple of years, and this is intensifying....some Germans think that Schwarzfahren relates to black people and therefore....is racist.  There is some national trend underway to dump the phrase.

Where did this originally come from?  There is some suggestion that this started in Czech, and around the turn of the century....'black' related to something being conducted illegally....something done in the 'black' of night....and the idea is that the Germans picked up this word and made up Schwarzfahren at some point.  

What's likely to happen?  I would suggest in 2022....some national trend where a term like Schwarzfahren has to go, and a minor attempt is made to made up a new phrase 'Ticketloser Fahrer' is thrown into the mix.  Along the way.....some teenagers will step in and make their own word up ('Merkelloser Fahrer', 'Nigrum Fahrer', etc).

Stupid?  This discussion probably comes up because various people have noted African migrants in some urban setting.....who didn't have tickets being fussed-over by the ticket audit people, and getting this racist feeling in their mind because of the evil Schwarzfahren expression.  Older Germans are just shaking their heads....why can't people just buy a stupid ticket and avoid the accusation of Schwarzfahren in the first place?

That Luca App Came Up Again

 It is a bit funny....N-TV bought up the Covid App....Luca.

It's a App that you'd download and it's tracking you (via the smart-phone) around the clock....so when you get Covid....the local health department checks your tracks and gives people a warning about your status.

From the 380-odd health authority districts....quizzed on how much they use the App to warn folks about Covid interaction....two-thirds of the health districts said they've never used the App.  

Here, probably 50-percent of the German population have the App and figure they will get warned if they sat near some sickly person.....and no one uses it to warn folks.  

Odds of this going away pretty quick?  

Saarland UFO Discussion?

 Back in the spring of 1826....a German scientist (of sort) turned in a observation paper revolving around a UFO seen in the Saarbrücker Rastpfuhl area.  

The Rastpfuhl?  In those days, it would have been a farming district about a mile NW of the center of Saarbucken. 

The guy who observed the UFO and wrote the report?  Ernst Florens Friedrich Chladni.  The guy is fairly well known for work done on acoustics, and you'd rank him in the top twenty German scientists of period.  

I started looking at this story, which was hyped-up to some degree in 2021.

So.....there are two problems with the story and the way it's told.  

The original report by Chladni?  You can no longer find a copy of the report anywhere.  Parts of the discussion were reported in a 1827 British publication (The Quarterly Journal of Science, Literature and Art” of the Honorable Royal Institution of Great Britain).  

But as you dig through everything.....the day that Chladni put on his report and still noted today.....is 1 April.  Yes, April Fools day.

The odds that this was a sophisticated 'joke' in 1826?  Well.....you don't know.  

If you want the basic story?  You can go here and review the story in about ten minutes.  

German Capacity For Covid-PCR Tests Running Short?

 Well....this is a serious subject which is a bit amusing.

Back in early 2020....when Covid started up....just about everyone was worried that they were getting Covid when it was a regular cold/flu.  Doctors got into the middle of this and said....if you don't have symptom X, Y or Z.....we aren't applying the PCR test.  A cost factor?  To some degree....yes, and insurance companies didn't want people freaked out and demanding a PCR test every two weeks.

As weeks passed....along came the 'burger-test'....basically a cheap test that could be done at the local sports hall in your village or some modular building in the city.  Cost?  The government agreed to pay 18-Euro for what was a 3.50 Euro kit and one-tenth of a man-hour to administer/control.   Yeah, they overpaid.....we don't argue about that part.

But as time went by....the 'burger-test' was considered a 'lesser' qualified solution and the 'gold-standard' was the PCR test.

So labs around Germany were set to perform X-number of PCR tests and they never thought they'd ever max out on capability.

Toward the end of 2021.....here comes Omicron, and the test business goes up a notch or two.

The problem here....a whole bunch of regulations were written that you don't officially have Covid, unless the PCR test confirms this.  You can't be forced into a Covid quarantine situation unless the test is done.

At this point (Friday morning)....it now appears likely that a massive curtailment of PCR tests will occur.  It's called prioritization, for lack of a better term.  If you just have this 'burger-test' and show symptoms....the doctor will quarantine you.  If you don't do the 'burger-test' and just complain of flu-symptoms?  Well....the doctor might agree with you and just jot 'flu' down for a week of sick-leave.

All this angling toward the end of the epidemic?  They've basically written so many lines of regulation into the system, that it can't haul the 'mess' much further.  It won't surprise me the lab folks doing PCR tests report a 75-percent drop in test performance within the next six weeks.  Naturally.....some idiot would say the whole Covid thing went away because of declining PCR tests.  

You can grin and laugh over this.....but if you test less....you get fewer results, and that ends the situation in a fairly undramatic way.  

Ukraine Update

 Last night, I noted that the UK is in the process of shipping in around 1,000 anti-tank missiles (with trainers) to the Ukraine.  Just based on the description....I'd say by the end of next week....the weapons will be in forward locations and represent a 'problem' for the Russians.

I won't say this is enough to halt or prevent an invasion....but I would suggest that on Russian tank/APC losses in a 7-day initial invasion effort.....you might see well over 200 tanks/APCs crippled/halted.  

It'll be enough that tank columns won't pursue a blitz-schedule without air protection.  

Russian Army officers now in a bind?  Well....the Moscow leadership intends for this to be a short and limited incursion.....march in for x-number of km's, and then announce the mission has been concluded.  You don't want a hundred Russian tanks laying there in pieces with photos beamed across the globe of the damage inflected.

The App Story

 About two weeks ago, I discussed the police use in Mainz of the Luca App (the App that would record location and personal data relating to Covid).  You can backtrack, using the infected guy's info.....finding a dozen-odd people who were near enough/close....that probably ought to be tested.  

I'd call it a tracking diary.  It's been around since 2020, and probably downloaded on half the smart-phones in the country.  The selling point, which I would suggest....is that the government wrote a security regulation that said that intelligence services/police...could not use the personal data.  

So in the case in Mainz....they had a case where they needed witnesses and this was the only method left....using the Luca data.  Illegal?  Yes, and the prosecutor has said he was sorry for doing it.

Today, via N-TV....we learned that there are more of these cases.  Maybe a hundred episodes where the private data was breached by the police.

Worrying the general public?  I would suggest that people will ask questions.....which the political establishment can't answer.  Some folks might delete the App.  It wouldn't shock me if by mid-summer.....a truth-commission gets started and admits several hundred episodes where data was breached for the good of society.

Personally, I wouldn't care if there were a judge in the middle of this, and quietly approved a very limited use of the data in serious cases (say murder or assault).  

Ban Rules to the Extreme

 About every single day....I have to go and review my local/regional Covid ban-rules because they continually 'change'.  In some cases, they become more and more complicated.  Today is a good example of this.

2G-plus is in effect for bar/restaurant indoor situations now.  What does this mean for entry?  You must be:

1.  Double vaccinated and tested.

2.  Recovered and tested 

3.  Twice vaxed-up and boosted.

4.  Recovered and double vaxed-up.

5.  Double vaxed-up and recovered.

6.  Vaxed-up, recovered, and second vaxed-up. (within 90 days).  

7.  Recently recovered (maximum 3 months from the day of the positive PCR test).

8.  Recovered AND freshly vaccinated once (maximum 3 months, from date of vaccination).

Complicated?  Well....there are exceptions noted....but those are for kids under the age 18 in this ban-rule listing.

Now, if your wife/husband/kids come up with Covid....under the OLD ban-rules, you were ordered to be quarantined with them.  Like in my case....four days after my wife got Covid, and was tested....I got this health authority note from the district....I was confined to the house (without any test done).

So time has passed and new quarantined ban-rules exist:

1.  If you are vaxed-up (two shots) and boosted....you don't have to play house-quarantine.

2  If you are recovered and double vaccinated....you don't have to play house-quarantine. 

3. If you are double vaccinated and recovered....you don't have to play house-quarantine.

4.  If you are recently double vaccinated (maximum 3 months, from the day of the second vaccination), you don't have to play house-quarantine.

5.  If you are recently recovered (maximum 3 months from the day of the positive PCR test), you don't have to play house-quarantine.

6.  If you are recovered and  freshly vaccinated once (maximum 3 months, from date of vaccination), you don't have to play house-quarantine.

Confusing?  Imagine having a household of mom, dad, grandma, and four kids (of which two are over the age of 18....with the five adults all having a slightly different ban-rule deal.

Imagine the end of 2022.....with the 3rd booster being 'done' and talk of the 4th booster being a topic of conversation.  

Are Germans Misreading the Quickie-Covid Test Kits?

 Well....N-TV (commercial news in Germany) brought this topic up.

These are the test kits that you can buy at the grocery/pharmacy for about 2.99-to-3.99 Euro (presently).

They are made (my humble opinion) in a way that even a 6-year old kid can conduct the test and proclaim 'Granny' or 'Uncle Johann' Covid-free, or 'positive'.  

If you read the instructions (carefully)....there is a time system with the test....after you swab your wife or kid.  You douse it with the liquid, and sit back to observe the end-result.  Normally....most all test kits say 15 minutes....some will say 15-to-30 minutes.  

The test is NOT valid until the appropriate time has passed.  (please note this in your mind)

I've probably done at least thirty of these for my wife over the past year (her boss hands out the kits and mandates every Monday/Thursday.....a test be accomplished) if she is working in the office for the week.  

The end-result will be negative (one-strip across the test paper) or positive (two strips across the paper).

Typically, I apply the test, and lay it there for about five or six minutes.....sipping my coffee and looking at the weather for the day.  Then I look for the one 'bar'....I consider the test complete then.

Well....the experts explained to N-TV....no, it's not complete until that 15th minute.  Its entirely possible that the 2nd bar may not show until the last minute or two of the waiting period.  

Odds that 90-percent of the folks conducting the test are like me....finished too early?  Well....it's best not to bring up this topic.  

So my advice....if you have to mess with the test kits.....read that one instruction line carefully and have a egg-timer set for the appropriate minutes.    

Second Booster Chatter

 I sat watching N-TV this morning (commercial German news), and this odd update came up.  They were discussing the first booster.....now a big hyped-up deal for Germans and Covid.  Last week....it was discussed that 35-million Germans had the first booster done.

So N-TV brought up this virus expert....he's hyping the second booster (yes, already).  But here's the thing....he says the second booster has to occur within 90 days of booster number one.  Otherwise, it's just not that effective. 

The odds of this being accomplished?  I'd give it a one in a hundred.  You'd have to run some vaccination center 24 hours a day....seven days a week, and bring out 20,000 retired doctors to help make this possible.  Otherwise?  Effective nature is lessened.  

Test Discussion

 In recent weeks here in Germany....the lab folks who conduct the PCR tests for Covid have admitted that they are pretty near maxed-out.

What the lab companies want is prioritization.....where certain tests are conducted, and certain people are prevented from the Covid test.  You can laugh over this idea, but this is how things have developed over the last month or two (with Omicron in our presence).

Differing state by state?  Yes, more or less. 

I noticed this discussed in a RBB (Berlin public TV) article.

So within the Berlin city region....if your quickie-test (not the PCR test) for Covid is positive, certain people will be denied a PCR test to confirm the quickie results.  The folks allowed the PCR tests?  Well....if your health background is 'high risk' or you work in 'critical infrastructure'.....you get the PCR test.  Everyone else?  To be denied.

Trust in the quickie-tests?  That's a fair sized problem.  You could line up ten different test kits of various companies.....finding that two say you are positive and the eight say you are negative.

The fact that you aren't considered 'recovered' with the quickie-tests for the 2G business?  That's obviously an issue.

Cost issue as well?  Generally, the PCR test via your local village 'wagon' runs around 49-Euro to 59-Euro.  The quickie test is 18-Euro (typically), and the government pays for it.  

The odds that this is another thing which will change....month by month?  I'd give it a 50-percent chance that it changes again by March.  

RTL's Jungle Camp Show

 This weekend.....the number one show for German TV....'Jungle Camp' will start up.  Instead of Australia....for the past 15-odd years, they are doing this year's camp in South Africa.

So, they have (had) 12 'campers' lined.  This morning, they announced that Lucas Cordalis (the singer) is now OUT as a camper....because of Covid.  

There's this rumor that started up, and the network has yet to clear this up.  Someone suggested that all 12 candidates were on the same plane when it flew down about four days ago.  

There's some suggestion that if this were true.....maybe some or all of the 12 (or the 100 show employees onboard the same plane)....have Covid, which would kill the entire show.  Odds of this?  Unknown.

Kinda Funny

 The Berlin city prosecutor is looking at an investigation of the two top Green Party members (Habeck - Baerbock).

The charge?  Well....at some point in 2020, a Covid-bonus was paid out to the top six members of the Green Party, from the party 'cash'.  Amount?  A shocking 1,500 Euro ($1,700 roughly).....each.

The problem is....within the party....there was no mechanism written in code/by-laws....to allow a bonus.  If they'd started out and created a mechanism first....then the Covid-bonus would be legal.

Who reported this?  Well....the party has occasional audits (mandated by party rules) and they reported it to the authorities.

What'll likely happen?  I'd take a guess that rather than get this into a judge's court.....the six will repay the bonus.  As for Baerbock and Habeck being 'kidded' about the bad-boy status?  I'm guessing each will admit they spent the cash on fancy new clothing for their new jobs.  

What'll Happen in Germany During the First Seven Days of Russian Incursion Into Ukraine?

 1.  Fair amount of chaos on German public TV, with Covid getting dumped entirely for several days.

2.  National natural gas shortage likely to be openly discussed, with Russia turning off the remainder of the gas flow.  Germans, I think, will be asked to reduce their home temperature to 18 C (64 F).

3.  Fair discussions on what Germany can militarily do.  Greens (part of the coalition) will not agree to deploy.  

4.  This discussion of forward deployment of nuke missiles into Belarus will intensify.  

Something About To Occur in the Ukraine?

 I noticed today....someone discussed Russian embassy personnel....for past couple of weeks...being packed up and leaving Kiev (capital of Ukraine), returning to Russia.

If you were asking me for a sign of something probably happening in Feb....that's one of the five things I'd put on the list.

Natural Gas Chatter

 There is an excellent piece in Focus this morning, which talks to the natural gas crisis in Germany, and the trade-situation with Russia. 

For those who haven't grasped it....Germany brings about 37-percent of it's natural gas requirement into the country from Russia....via a pipeline that is around fifty years old. Back a decade ago....lot of talks occurred, and several companies (German and Russian) put the money up to build Nord Stream II....a pipe that would run under the Baltic Sea....to the German northern coast.  

Somewhere around the 80-percent done level....President Trump made a number of comments that Germany would be in a dire situation if relations went sour.  A lot of German political figures got hyped-up....angry, and it just added to the long list of reasons why they hated Trump.

Without any state money from Russia or Germany....the project wrapped up about six months ago.  The Russians wanted the Germans to just certify it, and be done.  Well...something came on the paperwork.  The Germans noted that it wasn't a German company submitting the paperwork....it was coming out of Switzerland.  They said no.....you need to submit this under a German company.  Things kinda stalled then.

Around two months ago....this rumor of a Russian invasion into the Ukraine started up.  That didn't really help matters.

The fact that Trump was completely right (at this point)?  It's best not to bring this up.

Is a crisis brewing?  I would recommend a read of the Focus piece.  There is additional natural gas coming in from the US, and extra gas flowing from Africa to southern Europe.  If you asked me about pricing?  I'd say prices are currently escalating.

If a severe cold snap came in for four weeks?  It'd be a major problem for Germany....the reserves simply aren't there.

Are the Russian natural gas oligarchs worried?  I would suggest that they are huddled there and looking at the income levels.....they aren't making the same profit that they did from 2021, and this Nord Stream II project is a big chunk of investment which may fail now.  

Over the next six to eight weeks, this is probably a bigger problem than Covid, and will shock a few Germans on how fragile the system really is.  It'll also shock some to be reminded that Trump was right on this one occasion.  

'Larva Phobia'?

 Translated from Latin.....it means a person having a fear or aversion to masks (you know....the FFP2 or Covid-type mask).

Any day, I expect some mental clinic in Germany to announce their first patient who who either has a fear of wearing a mask....or a fear of hanging around people who wear the Covid mask.

I should note here....with all phobias.....they are always listed as a 'irrational fear'.

Throughout my military career....around every six months while 'stationed' in Germany....we'd undergo gas-mask training, and you'd end up in a booth at the end of the half-day of training....to stand there for ten minutes with the mask on while some tear-gas cannister was opened up.  The first dozen-odd times....I had this phobia of the training day, and hated this more than you'd think.  I eventually got used to it.

These days.....stepping out of a car, it's almost an automatic reaction....reaching for my mask, and ensuring it's there.  The fact that it's probably got fifty hours of use, and not up to practical standards (as the German authorities preach weekly)?  Yeah, but it's the 'look' that matters.  

I stood in a grocery last week, and noted some smaller lady (compact face), who had a FFP-2 mask on....that was too large.  There was a gap of 5 centimeters at the top of the mask....allowing total airflow in.  She was one of those people who ought to be wearing a kid's mask (my humble view).  No one was going to correct....even if they felt a duty to do so.

Will Larva Phobia catch on?  I suspect people will reach a level where they smoke a bit of cannabis or sip through four shots of rum.....to get over the irrational fear of the mask. 

'Recovered-Status' Going From Six Months to Three Months?

 Yesterday, the announcement was filtered out by the German government.  If you had Covid.....you were 'special' and had a status that meant you could do things that non-vax people couldn't do.  I know....it's silly to think this way, but it was a decision made a number of months ago.

So the government experts met, and had a meeting recently.  They decided that 'recovered' shouldn't be six months in duration.  So the new number is three months.

Any real science to this?  Funny how this is such a round thing to begin with (6 months) and goes to another round number (3 months)?

I looked at a social media discussion and some German asked why it couldn't be a 100-odd day special status as recovered?  He has a point.....I'd even suggest that 104 days sounds pretty special.  

Would it matter if this were a 32-year old gal, and at month seven.....she still had antibodies?  The fact that there is no test in this 'recovered' talk?  Well....yeah, that is an odd part of the discussion.....but I don't think you want to admit that 100 people would each have a rate of loss different from the others.

I hate to admit this, but one of the odd things I learned from my military years is that when someone makes up a rule and they give round-numbers.....it's usually a fraudulent serious topic.  

The odds that 'recovered-status' will slip from three months to two months?  Oh, I'd say by the end of 2022....that will definitely happen.  But eventually....some idiot will ask the question....if you are recovered on day-1 from Covid.....if you lose your recovered-status by day-90....does that mean you could have Covid on day-91?

This is one of those pause moments where you drag out the bottle of gin, and have a few shots to ponder over the implications.   

Q-and-A: Germany

 1.  Forward deployment of Russian nukes?

Well....yeah.  According to N-TV news early this AM....the Russians are in some stage of planning to move tactical missile nukes to Belarus.  Based on wording, I  don't see this happening in 2022....but it'll be discussed enough to freak out the Germans.  

I'd suggest that they (the German coalition) will hold a number of meetings over the next couple of months, and probably agree on some missile defense situation.....naturally, it's the US that has the assets and you'd have to agree some deployment.

Upsetting the Green Party folks and their enthusiasts?  Absolutely.

Cold War all up and re-created?  Absolutely.  Maybe even a Cold War II medal already being designed.  

2.  German Health Minister (Lauterbach) saying mandatory Covid immunization for everyone?

Last night, via live TV interview.....Lauterbach says this will be drafted up and in place by May.  

Odds of a national mandate on the Covid immunization?  I'd give it a one-percent chance.  The EU already has a mechanism in place that says you have the right to the shots....and the right to decline the shots.  This is all staged to get a reaction out of the public.

(For UK folks, it's interesting that in the past 24 hours some chatter going on to regard Covid as a flu-like situation and downgrade the emergency over the next couple of months.  I expect Germany to follow that idea by mid-summer)

3. How many fake vaccination card cases are being worked by the German police presently?

The police say 12,000.

However, they also indicate that it's just the ones that they noticed.....there might be a hundred-thousand easily.

Your 'pain' if found with a fake vaccination card?  Well....legally, you could get up to five years in prison.  My advice....don't get stupid....pay 300 Euro for a fake card...because it just opens up tons of legal trouble later.  

It Shouldn't Be This Complicated

 My wife's company hands her two Covid test kits each week, and she's supposed to test at home (usually Monday and Thursday mornings).

She handed me the 'kit' and I'm supposed to apply the test (don't ask why, other than I'm more technical than she is).

So a week ago....she handed two kits....a brand which I'd never used before.  I'm the type that prefers to watch the YouTube video....rather than reading the instructions.  

I look over the kit name, and search it via YouTube.....coming to two videos.....one in German, and one in Thai-English.  

I sat there for a minute....like you'd think that someone Chinese company (those are the only ones that manufacture these) would have a plain regular English video on this.  It's not rocket-science.

I sat and watched the 90-second Thai-English explanation.  Luckily, the Thai gal did include some English text in this, because the accent demanded a lot of attention.  

So I apply the test.  The little 'band' which is supposed to show positive/negative?  Well....it was fairly faint (at least negative once I applied a mega flashlight on it).  Then I looked at the expiration data.....it's about two weeks from expiring.  Made on x-day, and expiration is 365 days later.  I just stood there....shaking my head.  Maybe it sat in a Chinese warehouse for six months, and only got delivered to Germany in the past month....for all I know.  

All of this is supposed to make you feel good and safe.  I don't bring up these details to the wife....she just wants a feel-good feeling.....negative on the test, and the boss is happy.  

Crash From Yesterday

 Yesterday, over on the far east side of Frankfurt (heading north on the A45 autobahn)....some older guy (61) pulled his car off the ramp....into the autobahn gas station at a hefty speed....hitting the pumps, and setting off a massive fire at the gas station.

Cops and firemen arrived, but it was definitely too late.

So, after analyzing the video from the station.....the police now say it was suicide-by-intentional-crash.  

Yes, probably one of the weirdest episodes I've ever seen in the German news.

There's a second guy dead.....truck-driver who had just stopped to 'take-care-of-business'.  

Cops will continue the investigation and probably figure out more on the personal details of the driver, and how he got into this mindset.  

Five Things on Germany's Covid Situation That Frustrated Me

 1.  Back around early 2021.....the immunization business started up in Germany, and Channel 1/2 (ARD/ZDF, public TV) wanted to show you nightly (8 PM and 9:45 PM) news on Covid.....with needle injection imagery.  

I'm a weak-wussy guy on shots, and just standing in the animal clinic to get my cats vaxed'up....I'll get weak and have to almost sit down or exit the room.

So this nightly thing.....now going on a year....occurs, with Doctor 'Johan' immunizing 'Helga' or some guy, and I have to look to the other side of the room.  Every single night?  Yes.....sometimes once or twice....sometimes a dozen times.

I doubt if any evening news has ever passed where they didn't do a Covid update, and the shot-business has been on the screen for at least five to eight seconds.

2.  These public TV Brennpunkt specials.  As nightly news ends on public TV (ARD)....8:15 PM....since March of 2020, there's probably been at least 450 15-minute Brennpunkt specials (usually 15-to20 minutes) where they think they didn't tell you enough exciting Covid news during the 15-minute news piece, and they don't want to wait until 9:45 PM to tell you this stuff.

Germans will tell you.....they are inundated with this 'update-emergency-info' stuff, and some will admit they are finished.....no more Brennpunkt specials at 8:15 PM for them.  

Even as patient as I am.....the thousand-odd extra hours poured into this.....have burned me out on the subject.

3.  You have to watch regional/national news around the clock because the ban-rules change.....week to week.

If you went off to Turkey for four weeks of vacation.....you have to ask folks about what changes occurred and update yourself on the newest ban-rule deal.

4.  The most stupid thing I was....spring 2021....was my local hardware shop (Obi) had hired security people to wipe/control the shopping carts.  You couldn't enter, without interacting with Alli-the-Turk, who was wiping down shopping carts, and he tried to spray some Irish-Spring-like alcohol stuff on your hands.  

I came there to buy a stupid fuse for the fuse-box, and the idea of needing a shopping cart made no sense to me at all.  

When I brought the cart back to the parking lot.....there was Alli and he greeted me with more stink-soap spray.  My wife (German) asked me upon returning....where the hell I'd been to stink so much.

5.  I had to go with the wife to a local grocery.....2021 time-frame.  They hired special security to limit shopping carts, and to only allow 20 people into the grocery at one time.  

We (the German wife and I) stood there....number 15 in line....waiting to enter, as this black cloud moved over us.  I calculated....telling her we had 20 minutes before a massive amount of rain came.  I was wrong, it started around minute 18....just as this Alli gave us the thumbs up that we could enter.    

This is the occasion where we entered....loaded up the cart, and got to the three potential check-out lines.  There....the grocery clerk 'kid' started having a coughing attack, and my wife freaked out.....we can't stand in that line.  So we left this line at the check-out point, and stood as far away from the 'kid' as possible.