Ukraine Observations

 1.  The US told its embassy staff to get family members out of Kiev by Monday....either fly out or drive out.  Maybe they know the schedule of the Russians?  

2.  Germans firing the chief inspector of the German Navy?  Yes.  The admiral came out and voiced the comment that Putin is looking for respect, and in a blunt statement....the admiral said that this respect has a no cost factor.  I think he meant if you showed some respect....no incursion would occur.....but it wasn't seen that way.  Meanwhile....Ukraine demanded the German ambassador to come and explain things.  A big deal?  If you lined up the top 500 German government officials....you'd find a wide feeling existing....some actually supporting Russia, and some supporting the Ukraine. 

3.  Spain currently?  They sent a frigate and a minesweeper out to the Black Sea area (probably to arrive by Monday).  They've openly discussed sending a fighter squadron to Romania.  

4.  Difference between an invasion and an incursion?  There's not exactly a lot of difference.  Typically, an incursion refers to taking a piece of some country....it might be a 20-mile by 20-mile area....it might be larger than that.  

Do the Russians have enough strength to take all of the Ukraine?  I seriously doubt it.  

5.  Germans in the middle of this?  You have a coalition government composed of the SPD, Greens and FDP.  Most of the upper echelon lean left from the SPD/Green side.  It's more likely that zero military support would occur under this current Scholz government, however....with the FDP standing there....they might 'yank on the chain' of the SPD/Greens, and demand NATO support.  If that failed?  The FDP might suggest they leave the coalition.....meaning the government would fall unless they partnered up with the CDU.  My humble guess is that the CDU would demand the exact same script as the FDP.  

Yes, this might get real interesting.

6.  Natural gas flow a problem in Germany?  The Russians have trimmed the flow through the current pipeline.....so there's efforts to get more flow from the Norwegians.  Scholz met with Store last week....that was the chief topic discussed.....no one has said much since then.

7.  China in all of this?  They've moved up on the customer list for the natural gas that Germany isn't getting.  Also, if you haven't noticed in the past couple of months....China has been more aggressive on the Taiwan issue.  

8.  US militarily weak?  There might be a perception that between the Covid-affect, logistics issues, and President Biden's team....the US might be seen as weak.  

9.  Chief 72-hour strategy of the Russians?  I'd guess target the air defense, go after command and control throughout the Ukraine, destroy fuel depots, attack the runways of the four bases east of the Dnieper River, and establish control over a chunk of land on the far SE side of the Ukraine (probably a 50 by 100 mile area).  I'd also suggest that this threat of moving nuke tactical missiles into the Belarus might occur shortly after this 72-hour period....which would freak the Germans out a bit.

A plan with only 15 days of military activity?  I would go and suggest that this is a fairly limited scale operation and is intended to reach an end-point within two weeks, then sit for a month or two on 'negotiations'.  The fact that the Russian military might be sitting there for more than a year?  Wouldn't shock me.  

10.  This threat of using sanctions against Russia?  They've gotten their commercial 'partner' with China, and unless they agreed to participate in sanctions.....then it really won't matter.  

11.  All of this being done under the shadow of Covid?  Well....yeah, that is a part of this discussion as well.  

12.  Sky News talks about some rumor they've heard....that the current PM of the Ukraine would be targeted, and a 'name' is already being surfaced as the replacement guy....being 'friendly' toward Putin?  Facts?  Zero.  If the Russians did go and terminate the current PM of the Ukraine....it'd change the dynamics in a serious way and be more than just an incursion.

13.  Most serious threat since the missile crisis over Cuba in the early 1960s?  Yeah....you can regard this as a bigger deal than even the invasion of Kuwait or the war years in the Balkans.

14.  All of this going back to the fall of 2013, and the way the EU-Ukraine trade deal fell apart?  More or less.

Once the whole 'free-trade' deal was laid out....it came under the eyes of Russia, and they felt the Ukraine was getting an unbelievable deal....with NATO protection likely coming in short fashion.  

A screw-up on the EU part?  I would suggest that a mini-version of this deal....only to involve agricultural products....would have been a better first step and lessen Russia's panic over the situation.

15.  If the NATO naval force reacts in this incursion?  That's a bigger question.  The force would have to place itself in the far NE section of the Black Sea, with limited assets.  If they attempted to run air defense in protection of that region....it's going to draw targeting status of the Russians.  An attack on any of the vessels would trigger a bigger mess.  

16.  France in this?  Well....there's an election coming up in April.  Macron can't be seen as 'weak'.  So there's going to be more action than you'd typically see from France.

17.  Russia having dealt the cards and forced into an incursion because there's no easy exit situation?  Yeah, that might be one way to view this.  Adding to this....the perception of the US currently is 'weak'.  The Russians might argue that Biden isn't in charge and there's some alternate form of government going on with Biden just as a figure-head.  If Putin were to make a public statement like this....it'd draw a lot of attention and beg questions if Putin were right about this.

18.  So, as to the date of this incursion?  I think the US has some date in their mind and it's in the next ten days after Monday.