Russia and the Ukraine

 For the past three nights on German public TV news....the topic of the Russia invasion possibility into the Ukraine has been hyped-up.

So, looking over the entire landscape.....I'll offer seven observations:

1.  There is this 'window' of opportunity to ensure the least amount of German/European reaction, and it has to occur before spring.  I would even suggest the window is closed by early March.  Most of this scenario is because of the Russian natural gas flow (now mostly non-existent) that would normally go into Germany (around 37-percent of the natural gas used there....is Russian).

2.  There are 20 US natural gas 'tankers' on their way to Europe, and probably will unload within next couple of days....then return to the US to reload.  Second delivery will likely occur by the end of January.  

3.  What is in the mind of Russian?  Weakest US position in fifty years....between Covid, dismissal of troops refusing the vaccination, Biden, and the European level of confidence.  

4.  Russian goal?  I would suggest the carving-out of a 50-by-100 mile zone on the far eastern area....along the Black Sea.  Along this idea....to play out the scenario that NATO can't expand anymore (give notice to various countries).  

5.  Total destruction of the Russian economy if the natural gas business is destroyed?  There's been efforts to sign agreements with China, and I think they will accept the loss of European contracts in hopes that China is their new big partner.  The wasted effort of the new pipeline going into Germany?  That's a total loss if this scenario plays out, and several German partners will be extremely bitter over their loss in the game.

6.  Length of this military episode?  The invasion will take less than seven days,  The US/NATO chatter?  They will react but it'll already be too late.  By April, a number of European leaders will ask if Biden is competent or needs to be 'let go'.  The Russian troops will be forced to remain in place throughout the summer, and I doubt seriously if they leave before October arrivals.  

7.  By summer of 2022....the German question will be....has the 'cold war' returned?  And the current 'new' government of Germany can't really answer that question.