1. Odds of Russian Special Forces personnel already in the Ukraine? I'd give it a 100-percent chance that at least 300 of these guys are there, and have a targets list established.
2. Odds of Russian Special Forces personnel already in Germany, and France? I'd give that a 100-percent chance. If NATO reacts in some way....there would likely be weird targeting going o (ships sunk in the entry of Bremerhaven's port, fuel storage that supports US/German military bases, car-bombs).
3. German support of a NATO mission? Heavily divided, and a fair number of SPD/Green Party members will not support German military action.
4. A fair amount of public shock that a reserve of natural gas does not exist.
5. I don't think the military agenda of the Russians is that huge, and you might only be talking about a 50 by 100 mile area being 'taken'.
6. If any forward deployment of Russian tactical missiles occurs....a fair number of Germans will ask how the hell this all came to be.
7. Public view of Biden from the European prospective will drop like a rock.
8. Both Bulgaria and Romania will ask a lot of questions if NATO does little to nothing over this.
9. A lot of Omicron will go around with NATO and Russian soldiers.
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