Last night, I noted that the UK is in the process of shipping in around 1,000 anti-tank missiles (with trainers) to the Ukraine. Just based on the description....I'd say by the end of next week....the weapons will be in forward locations and represent a 'problem' for the Russians.
I won't say this is enough to halt or prevent an invasion....but I would suggest that on Russian tank/APC losses in a 7-day initial invasion effort.....you might see well over 200 tanks/APCs crippled/halted.
It'll be enough that tank columns won't pursue a blitz-schedule without air protection.
Russian Army officers now in a bind? Well....the Moscow leadership intends for this to be a short and limited incursion.....march in for x-number of km's, and then announce the mission has been concluded. You don't want a hundred Russian tanks laying there in pieces with photos beamed across the globe of the damage inflected.
2 comments:
I am no military strategist here but i would think Russia will knock down all the Ukraine air support/comms centers before they would attempt to proceed into the country. ATGMs are okish, not very effective
A lot will depend on whether the anti-tank missiles are field deployed immediately upon arrival. I do agree...Russian priority on hour one is to hit the command structure and air defense/radar. Probably a dozen NATO ships in the Black Sea presently. This would be a curious element to this and if they were to pull up to the coast of the Ukraine.
I don't see this 'incursion' being more than a 100-to-150 km situation...maybe carving off a 200 mile circle on the far east side. I don't think any of the Russian generals want a 48-hour count of fifty tanks/APC crippled.
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