Thursday, January 20, 2022

Ukraine Update

 Last night, I noted that the UK is in the process of shipping in around 1,000 anti-tank missiles (with trainers) to the Ukraine.  Just based on the description....I'd say by the end of next week....the weapons will be in forward locations and represent a 'problem' for the Russians.

I won't say this is enough to halt or prevent an invasion....but I would suggest that on Russian tank/APC losses in a 7-day initial invasion effort.....you might see well over 200 tanks/APCs crippled/halted.  

It'll be enough that tank columns won't pursue a blitz-schedule without air protection.  

Russian Army officers now in a bind?  Well....the Moscow leadership intends for this to be a short and limited incursion.....march in for x-number of km's, and then announce the mission has been concluded.  You don't want a hundred Russian tanks laying there in pieces with photos beamed across the globe of the damage inflected.

2 comments:

Claudio said...

I am no military strategist here but i would think Russia will knock down all the Ukraine air support/comms centers before they would attempt to proceed into the country. ATGMs are okish, not very effective

Schnitzel_Republic said...

A lot will depend on whether the anti-tank missiles are field deployed immediately upon arrival. I do agree...Russian priority on hour one is to hit the command structure and air defense/radar. Probably a dozen NATO ships in the Black Sea presently. This would be a curious element to this and if they were to pull up to the coast of the Ukraine.

I don't see this 'incursion' being more than a 100-to-150 km situation...maybe carving off a 200 mile circle on the far east side. I don't think any of the Russian generals want a 48-hour count of fifty tanks/APC crippled.