My Humble Opinion On The 49-Euro Bahn/Bus Ticket: Starts Tomorrow in Germany

 The ticket deal is this.....where you live (no matter), you can buy a 49-Euro monthly ticket and go anywhere via subway, train or bus.  

Limits?  You can't ride 1st class.  You can't ride the ICE high-speed rail (even on 2nd class).  

Seats being full?  That's probably one of the three big negatives.  

Being a great deal if you live in a metro area (Mainz, Koln, Berlin, etc)?  Yes.  If you live in Kasierslautern or some town of less than 100,000 people.....it probably won't be a big plus-up.

If you were making a big trip from Frankfurt to Hamburg?  I'd buy a regular 1-day ticket....ride ICE (high speed), and reserve my seat....avoiding this 49-Euro deal.  

Good for a whole month?  Yes.  

Paperwork Story

 The draft to the new 'Self-Determination' law is finished and ready for passage.  What it deals with?  

Basically, your gender stuff would be a simple paperwork drill...rather than some court or judge involved....agreeing you changed this way, or changed back.  You'd fill out some forms....submit them, and a week or two down the path....you'd be noted as such in some national database (your national ID card system).  

Within it, there is some text to deal with sports, prisons, work-place areas, and quotas for businesses.  This part....oddly, has not been talked much about in the public TV sense.

What happens in the Bundestag/Bundesrat?  Anyone's guess.  

What is suggested....with almost no facts to back up the idea....is that around 4,000 cases will come up yearly.  There's simply not enough data to say 4,000 is accurate.  We may see a flood in year one....and by year three....fewer than 1,000 a year.

Age figuring into this?  Well....the draft says you can only go into the gender paperwork business....if age 14 or older.  From age 14 to 18?  The kid can submit the paperwork, but the parents have some say in the matter....meaning a judge probably can over-rule the parents.

This likely to be stalled in the Bundestag?  I'm of the opinion that the FDP and CDU will both want serious modifications.  But I also think that the numbers in Germany wanting drastic changes here...aren't that great.  

Flipping back and forth?  In past chatter....the draft said something to the effect that the paperwork business was a once-a-year limit situation.  Meaning you'd go and change your gender, and if unhappy...you'd have to wait for a full year to pass.  

I won't guess out of the 4,000 number....how many will reverse their gender selection after twelve months, but it might be interesting show that number in twelve to eighteen months. 

Four Versus Five

 For those who never paid attention to this....nationally in Germany, the election system is set to a four-year standard.  For the EU election, state elections, and county/city elections....it's a five-year standard. 

Well....for about ten years, there's been a debate lingering that the federal election should shift to a five-year period.  This past week....a commission delivered it's analysis of how the gov't functions in Germany, and they suggested a five-year federal schedule.

If you asked me about it being supported within the Bundestag....I'd say that 70-to-80 percent support the idea.  Among the public....I think over half the nation has no real opinion.  You might even find five percent of the public ready for a ten-year schedule.  

So if it would pass....would they start this shortly?  The next election is set for the fall of 2025.  I personally don't think they'd screw with that date, but in that election....it's possible that you'd be agreeing in some form (maybe on a ballot) that it goes to a five-year standard.

Knifing Story

 Pretty wild action discussed from yesterday in Frankfurt.  What the cops say?  At the Skyline Plaza (city mall, about a km NW from the city train station)...which I should note is a up-and-coming shopping district now....some folks were up in the parking deck....and a argument started up.

No one says what the discussion was about....but a knife was produced and a couple of folks were knifed (no one dead, but pretty fair wounds).

Folks defending themselves.....pulled out irritant spray (lot of it) and the air around the parking deck became a problem to breathe.

In the end....for a while, the shopping district was shut down because of the irritant.

Most of the folks involved in this fight...simply left the scene....two went off to the hospital.  Anyone arrested yet?  No.  There would be charges, but you'd have to figure out the participants in this.

Just another example when I suggest you need to be vigilant in Germany these days....even pulling into a mall parking lot.  

This district near the 'junkie-quarter'?  Well....yeah.  Within 250 meters....is the junkie-quarter.  It may have been some distribution 'team' argument, and things went 'south'.  

Seven German News Stories

 1.  Pretty crazy allegation, but police raided the Munich soccer team FC Bayern.  Reason?  Well...something about a Russian Oligarch guy money-laundering through the club (this was before the war started).  

Yeah, wild allegation, with some elements to it.  They went through the club headquarters and the Arena.  Amount being openly discussed?  For about a 2-year period....tens of millions of Euro.  

Who knew what?  Unknown....but this is the stuff that you'd to get you a year or two in prison if you were a key player in hiding the situation.

2.  Some report out of Schleswig-Holstein area.....a meteor struck a house (the one-in-a-billion situation).  Struck a apartment building.

3.  Court system in Berlin has racked up 555 charges against Last Generation activists in the past week.  Hefty rate.  Police can establish as a fact that in 21 cases....ambulances were hindered.  In that situation....it's a pretty sure bet you will get 90-plus days in jail (at least on the first run-through).

I noticed in one episode from Friday....some car enthusiast pulled out a lighter and tried to light-up a glued-up protester.  Yeah, apparently glue is flammable......cops stopped the episode before things got intense (even I wasn't aware of that science fact).  

4.  Some suggestions around Berlin that right-wing extremists now exists with teenage kids in local schools (something you didn't see before).

5.  Starting Monday, the 49-Euro train/bus ticket is in effect.  Lot of skeptical views about how crowded things will be....some folks believe this ticket is opening up a public problem with Germans being grumpy over the lack of seats.

6.  This past week, big drug bust in Berlin area....four meth labs of a 'industrial' size reported.

7.  Various doctors have signed a letter to the Minister of Health....indicating a national crisis brewing on prescription drug shortages (in particular for kids).

Wolf Chatter

 It's a page 3 type story and won't be discussed much.....but the Farmer's Association of Germany has demanded and will get a wolf-summit....to discuss the increasing problem of more wolves active in Germany.  

So, there's going to be the farmers, the federal government, the state governments, the pro-wolf lobbyists, and the environmentalists at this meeting.

When?  Today.  It doesn't appear it was openly discussed much....at least with public new TV.

What the farmers want? An active wolf hunting application.  They aren't saying to rid Germany of wolves....they just want the population decreased.

What drove this new emphasis?  Well...in the past year....a couple of attacks on horses.

The pro-wolf lobby group is pretty active but in this case....I think most people in the federal government will agree that some type of license/limit will be established.  It might go region by region....or state by state.

This being a big deal?  I would say from a non-German watching public TV pieces related to a pro-wolf emphasis....there's been some effort to just let the wolf population linger and grow.  At some point....some kid will be attacked at a school-bus-stop, and get dragged down.  Then....everyone will explode about the evil wolf situation.  

Three German News Stories

 1. Here in my local area (Wiesbaden)....there's a report that the cops noticed some guy speeding in a 100 kph area of the Autobahn nearby.....going 182 kph.

The driver?  Well....from Morocco and apparently did not have a visa.  This drew some curiosity.  Examining the area under the floormat...Audi RS3 (lux sports car)...150,000 Euro in cash sitting there.

Neither the driver or passenger could explain where the money came from....so it's been confiscated for the time being under money-laundering laws.  

2.  Focus reports some added news on Nord Stream I/II explosions....suggesting that the Danish Navy had seen a Russian sub in the area about week prior to the explosion.  Odd part to the story is that it's a mini-sub....not a regular sub.  Added weight to blame the Russians?  Marginal.

I do find it odd that this news comes out now....not the month after the explosion.

3.  This 3 ballot business in Berlin's mayor situation?  Well....if you go and dig through all the regional chatter....there was supposed to have been a deal where the SPD members would vote in the first ballot for Wegner (the CDU Party guy) as part of the coalition deal. 

There is apparently discontent among the 'players' of the SPD Party NOT wanting the coalition or accepting the deal.  

There is also a rumor that the small crew within the SPD on the 3rd ballot were still not wanting to support the coalition deal....and that AfD Party members crossed the line to support Wegner.  Since it's all secret voting.....you can't tell if this is true. There's also a rumor that a couple of CDU members of Wegner's own party....don't like him and weren't voting him in.  

Relationship between the CDU and SPD as you move forward.....shaky and fragile.  

Berlin Mayor Vote Takes Three Attempts?

 After all the talk between the winner of the Berlin race (CDU Party) and the partner in the coalition (SPD)....they had the vote today.

The CDU guy (Wegner) thought he'd get it on the first ballot, and failed.

Second ballot?  He failed.

Third ballot and final ballot?  He passed.

What happened? Votes weren't there (no one says if Wegner's party or the SPD Party screwed around).

Done....the CDU now has majority control of the city politics now.  

Yeah, About That Knife Attack Guy

 Police in Duisburg....looking at this Syrian guy for stabbing four....did DNA analysis.  They say now that a 2nd attack can be attributed to this guy....with a actual murder. This came from the victim's blood on the attacker's shoes.  

Knife Attack

 This knife attack at the Duisburg fitness studio from around 10 days ago?  Well....at the time, all the police said was that four folks were wounded and one was pretty bad hurt.  Since then.....the police have been looking for the guy (with a picture published locally).

Well...yesterday, they arrested a guy....Syrian refugee.....who'd been in Germany since 2016. 

What public TV says?  ZDF put things into some context.....the guy had some material in his apartment (on the cellphone as well) that would indicate radicalization.

My humble belief?  I would imagine the judge will invoke some mental exam upon the guy, and some doctor will simply say he's had a breakdown of some type.  

The Thuringia 2024 Election Paradox

 So, if you were to look at the German state election set for Thuringina (a eastern Germany state)....there's a problem brewing.

Presently, the AfD Party leads in the polls....some suggesting in the present range of 28-to-30 percent....some suggesting it might even swing to 33-percent.  

Number two?  Linke Party (the last election winner)....sitting presently around 22-to-25 percent.  

If the AfD were to win?  You have to form a coalition....which presents appears to be zero options (none of the parties will accept this)..

The back-up normal plan?  You'd take the number two winner (expected to be the Linke Party).  Would they have enough partners to form a coalition?  Without the CDU Party (they'd never partner up).....you are left with dismal number from the Green Party, SPD, and FDP.  Even if you add the four up.....it won't cross the 50-percent point in coalition planning.

Going to the 3rd place winner?  Likely to be the CDU?  They could attempt partnering with the SPD, Greens and FDP.....but are unlikely to have the 50-percent number either.

It is a paradox of sorts....where an election is supposed to present a group of people to run a state government, yet in this case....can never form a 'team'.

I went back to the past 30 years (since the Wall came down) and you can't find any state government scenario where this type of mess unfolded.  

People jumping off the Linke Party 'band-wagon'?  Well....that's about half the whole mess laid out.  You simply don't find that many people in that region....charged-up for the party.  

If the Linke Party were to lose another five to ten points?  Well...it creates a fairly weak 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th place group.  

The Question of Proportionality

 I sat contemplating this question from the AM....from Berlin...."wann ist ein Schmerzgriff verhältnismäßig?"

Translated?  When is pain grip proportionate? 

So this revolves around the Last Generation activists, the glue-me-to-the-pavement trend, and how police resolve the protest when called upon.

For those who haven't grasped the whole thing.....'Last Generation' is a environmentalist group who believes if you create enough drama, and delay people getting to work (by gluing themselves to the asphalt)....then the delayed folks will give up supporting the evil carbon 'world'. 

However, in this effort with the glue....cops get called, and they make what you'd call a minimal effort to 'unfreeze' the 'kids' from the asphalt....thus triggering pain, suffering, agony, discomfort, misery and ache. 

Now?  The Last Generation folks think it's pretty crappy in the manner that the police grip them and handle them as the arrest occurs.

If you wander around Germany...particularly in cities like Frankfurt, Hamburg or Stuttgart....you will occasionally observe some tense situation where the police have arrived, and are in 'must-arrest' situation.  Typically with German police (I've watched this around a dozen times in my life....from a distance)....there's always a warning.  They might even repeat this two or three times.

Then they go into the act of taking the guy/gal down....handcuffing them....and putting into the bus/van/car.  As long as you don't fight them off...they don't physically hurt you (at least from my distant prospective).  

But when you start talking about an adhesive (glue) situation...I doubt if the activists have really done much homework on how this works, and the amount of pain you might suffer if the glue has only dissolved by 50-percent.  Any of these people playing the piano later?  I kinda doubt it.

Just in general....no one really calculates things with proportionality, at least not in the sense that a statistical average falls into play and you determine your life by a best average.   If they did...then you'd do the numbers to realize you can be arrested for a illegal protest action, and likely spend 90 days in jail.  

Public Forum TV From Last Night

 I sat and watched about ten minutes of a public forum show on ARD (Channel One, pubic TV) last night....Maischberger show.  Chief topic?  The Last Generation activists and their cause.

At some point....this 'spokesperson-gal' (Carla Hinrichs)....explained her dedication to the 'cause'.

Key quote that I got: "It's okay if the court convicts and sentences me. But for every person in a cell, five people will join the resistance."

In some way, she came across as cult-like....absolutely convinced of her purpose in life and prison was acceptable for the cause. 

Why Frau Maischberger allowed this as forum material?  Unknown.

I couldn't handle much after that statement....turning the channel. 

Two German News Stories

 1.  For those who didn't grasp this....Turkey is in the middle of a election period.  Erdogan (current President) is running again.  Most Turks will say that he's not in the greatest of health.

Yesterday, Erdogan was rushed off to the hospital.  No one says much over what happened.  Some suggestion of a heart attack....no real facts associated with this idea though.

Does it hurt his odds of winning?  Well...the longer he stays in the hospital....I' guess that it weakens his odds of winning.

2.  WELT had a piece today....suggesting that some German health care situations are being filled by people who appear with a fake certificate, and the companies are so desperate....that they overlook the fraud.  

Eight News Stories

1.  Yesterday, I read a piece from the UK news.....suggesting that it's possible (maybe not this decade) that Artificial Intelligence (AI) Chat....will reach a point where they replace judges, and some AI unit will handle your case.   

After pondering over this idea....I have this vision of Hal and Dave in the end scene of Space Odyssey 2001.  Hal, the AI, decides that he can't let Dave back into the space ship....after evaluating the situation.  I could see some Brit AI named 'Jack' deciding you needed your balls removed....in order to ensure you got the 'message' about future 'proper' behavior.  

2.  There's some discussion piece on Focus this AM....suggesting that as Habeck (Energy Minister) screws up occasionally....it's added public discontent and more support over to the AfD Party.  

I won't say it's crazy, but there's more people now supporting AfD rhetoric than it was in early January.  

3.  The German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution has decided after a careful review....that the youth-wing of the AfD Party.....needs to be monitored as right-wing extremists.  

4.  ADAC came out and said that the computerized hardware on German cars....telling you fuel consumption data....is wrong about 25-percent of time.  Shocking but it makes you wonder....how many folks kept reading the display....thinking they had 20 kilometers to go with fuel, and then ran out?

5.  Viessmann, the German heat pump company....bought by a US company?  Yeah.  Shocker to a number of folks.

Odds of a price escalation situation?  Best not to bring it up.  

6.  The German police union chief....spoke up yesterday and said it's time to go to those arrested from the Last Generation activists...and hold them for 30 days before releasing for a future court date.  He's not talking about jail after the court appearance....he means from hour one of the arrest.....you sit in a cell for 30 days.

I'd admit....that's pretty harsh, but the patience for the cops is probably reaching a breaking point.  

7.  Some German discussion going on....from age 75....you'd have to 'test' yearly to keep your license.  Possibility of passing?  I'd rate it near 5-percent presently.

8.  Some German study done.....saying traffic noise at night hinders your sleep, and causes you depression.  Just adding another reason to mandate E-cars.  But I think it'd be easier to just force everyone out of cities and to rural environments. 

German Rocket Launch Site?

 There's chatter today....from the SPD Party (left-of-center) that they think it's time to build a launch-site in Germany....up on the north coast of Germany.

Naturally, on their plan....there would be a management office in the North Sea region.

I'm a bit amused.....if you were looking for hostile weather....it's the wrong place.

Cost?  That part was left out, and I'd assume.....it has to be in the billion-Euro range.

Mandates and laws?  Odd, this got brought up.....the SPD folks think there needs to be 'space law' in effect.  What kind of space law?  Unknown.

Odds of this passing?  I will emphasize.....it'll be a decade before they have a stable economy where this idea makes sense.

Shop-lifter Story

 I spent a couple of hours in Wiesbaden today....in the shopping district. 

A unique experience....I sat in a book shop (we have just one left in the mid-town area)....where I noticed a guy come from the upstairs with two books on his right side....hidden from view of the cash register.

Fast-paced walk, and slipped by quickly...exiting the store.  From the point where I noticed him until he exited?  No more than four seconds.  

Yeah.....shop-lifting.  

These aren't store-keepers that actively monitor stuff like this.

Kid?  I'd say six feet tall...maybe 16 or 17 years old.  

I have no idea what the average take is in town.....but I'd guess weekly from all the shops....it's probably over 20,000 Euro.  

Polizei Tactics

 I noticed today....some chatter out of Berlin over the Last Generation activists.  So the police came to note their newest tactic.

Realizing that talking or having discussions aren't working....the Berlin polizei said 'enough'.  When they get the call on a unapproved protest with Last Generation....they arrive and immediately go into action. 

The days where they might stand there and try to convince the protest folks to leave?  Gone. 

I kinda figured a couple of weeks ago....this tactic would come....sooner or later.

The little speech that the activists had prepared themselves for?  Well...no longer necessary.

Threats from the polizei?  They were never really necessary.  Once you arrive....assess the situation, then go to ungluing the activists, and then bring them downtown to be processed for a court-date.  

Just me guessing, but I think the judges/prosecutors....will go the same way.  Charge X up....do you plead anything, if not, guilty and direct them to some 90-day jail sentence.   You could process forty cases a day like this, and not waste time. 

What Is The Max Speed of a E-Bike In Germany?

Well...up until today....I believed the max that you could get out of a regular E-bike was 45 kph (28 mph).  That was advertised and generally....with the steering....personally I thought 30 kph (19 mph) was as fast as you really wanted to ride such a bike.

So up in Frankfurt....a police situation popped up and a guy was summoned to a court episode.

Accusation?  A Dutch guy in the region....had re-turned a E-bike for a speed up to 100 kph (62 mph).

Apparently, he'd figured out a way to have a second battery 'engine' added and done some chip modifications.

How this came up?  Just random stops by the Polizei.  

What happens here?  I'm guessing that some lawyer will argue that the Dutch guy didn't know German law and aim for a fine of some type.  Confiscation of the bike?  Maybe if he offers to remove the second engine, and the modified chip....he might get the bike back.

But here's the thing....one has wonder now....in the region, how many of these enhanced bikes now exist?  I'm guessing this guy has shown a dozen-odd people how to modify the bikes and get the speed up to 100 kph.

Three German News Stories

 1.  I noticed this AM....EU chatter over the idea that they believe (the EU itself) that regulations need to be addressed with Artificial Intelligence (AI). 

Just a humble feeling....but if you asked AI about this....it'd probably respond that it's already working on a way to regulate the EU itself.  

2.  What came off the Anne Will public forum show last night?  Climate chatter....mostly over coalition goals, housing renovation and the heat-pump talks.  At some point, the CDU guest (Spahn) noted that the people pushing the agendas....don't seem to relate or connect to regular working-class people and the financial cost of what is being pushed.

He has a point...but German journalists have failed miserably in going out and looking at various homes....to reflect upon a true cost estimate.  

My suggestion...if you wanted to impact folks....pick out one single village with 200 homes (rural setting) and run a dozen experts through to announce the true cost to the entire village.  Then the Greens and SPD folks would shut up.  

If you really wanted to hype up renovation or heat-pumps....just dissolve the VAT tax deal for a five-year period.  

3.  N-TV piece this AM on German ice cream.  They brought up the fact that in the 1980s....a scoop of ice cream was 30 pfennigs (15 US cents).  In Munich today....that same one scoop....would be 2 Euro ($2.20).  

I was at a cafe in Wiesbaden yesterday that offered up a plate of pancakes.  Price?  $15.50 roughly.  If you wanted the extra premium Canadian syrup?  That's another 3 Euro.  

The 9,000 Fewer Stores in Germany Story

 I noted business news this AM in Germany....some chatter that a forecast came out....saying that 9,000 stores in Germany (existing on 1 January) will fold-up/collapse by the end of the year.  Partly because of inflation, less sales, and partly the after-product of the Covid-era.

A big deal?  When you spread these out....it's basically saying that in a town like Mainz (218,000 population)....there's probably forty shops that will be gone.  Right now today....if you start out at the Obisk and walk westward through the walkplatz....there's probably already twenty-odd shops which are closed up and waiting for new renters.  

Yeah, it's a low business trend, and likely to continue through this inflation period (minimum of 2024 to be the same).  

Changing the real estate character of the nation?  That's probably one of a dozen outcomes for this era.  

My Theory On Stone Purses

 I spend a fair amount of time on ancient  history and trying to grasp what people meant in drawings/sculpture.  

The purse thing is intriguing.  You find it in Australian wall drawings....in Egypt....in Iraq...in Central America/Peru.

They all symbolize the purse.  It's never children with the purse....it's always men.  The purse is never huge (it's usually big enough to carry your lunch, three or four books, or a six-pack of beer).  Women are never depicted in carrying it.

Oddly, nothing seems to be hanging out of the purse....like you'd see in modern times.

You never have a stone carving where the person is removing something from the purse....like a bag of peanuts, or a comb, or a rock.

My general belief....I think forty-odd generations have passed and the story that gets passed down....is that so-and-so carried a bag.  The stone-carver guys are called in and told to chisel up a story, and probably ask questions about the size of the bag....but the 40th guy telling the story has no real idea about the size or purpose of the bag.  So it gets carved out, and a thousand folks are hustled through the 'story-telling' hour per day.....with most standing there....asking about the stupid bag story, with no answer.

The legend has to carry on about 'boss-such-and-such'....with a bag.  But beyond the size and hand grip.....that's it.  There might be 3,000 to 10,000 years from the actual day when purse-guy existed, and the stone-carver laid out his best work.

I would imagine the stone-carver sat there for years after that....waking up in the middle of the night....wondering....why the hell did I chisel that stupid 'purse'?  It has no meaning or purpose.

This worldwide use of the 'purse'?  Part of me wants to suggest it was one single guy.....not forty-odd groups with forty-odd purses being carried.

In this status of a traveler....going from land to land?  The odds are....he carried a compass and a map in the purse....nothing more.    

My Thing About Temperatures

 I noticed this week....lot of hype in the UK about upcoming 'heat waves' in England.  Well...to be honest, they were suggesting something like 24 C (75 F) is a heat wave.  

Germans?  They generally freak out when it reaches 30 C (86 F).  

I spent time in Arizona....where the temperature on a couple of occasions reach 47 C (117 F).  I also spent time in Panama where the humidity would be 80-percent, and the day temperature would reach 34 C (94 F).....and you were in a serious sweat situation for five hours out of the day.  

It's hard to sell me on some heat-wave business.  Even if you mess with the weather map and redden all the temperature readings on the map....to say 34 C (93 F) is RED-RED-RED.....I just start laughing.

How did Germans survive the past couple thousand years without AC....in dreadful 34C (93 F) temperatures?  They probably consumed a fair amount of beer, sat under trees, and wore minimum clothing.  

Two Observations

 1.  It's not page one news, but in the last couple of days....the Germans have kicked a number of Russian 'diplomats'.  On Friday, the Russians did the same....kicking out around 20-odd German diplomats.  

To be honest, in the spring of 2022....the same type of event occurred. So it's nothing new.

What is generally odd....the public news folks marginally discussed this (for one day) and then totally dropped it the second day.  

2.  My wife and I were viewing ARD news last night (public TV) and this tourism thing came.  If you venture up to the far north, against the Baltic....you will be in the Rügen area.

Locals there in the Königsstuhl area....decided to front some serious money and build a 'round-bridge' or skywalk (meaning that you walk out on a circle on some cliff....overlooking the Baltic).

Local leadership seems to think that people will come miles around....to venture out on this platform that extends around 150 feet beyond the cliff.  

I asked my wife...are they serious?  She (a German) observed it was a pretty stupid investment, and didn't believe more than forty people a day would come to walk out on this cliff.

Three German News Stories

 1.  FC Bayern lost yesterday to Mainz....3 to 1.  Page one episode.  Partying over in Mainz with the fans went on to the late hours.  

2.  Last Generation activists were in Berlin yesterday....spraying paint over windows in the luxury shop part of town.  

3.  Coalition gov't now admits the goal of building 400,000 apartments per year (loudly discussed over all of 2022)....will not happen in 2023.  Somewhat of a construction crisis going on at present.

Bus Story

 Wetzlar is a town...about an hour north of Frankfurt....around 55,000 residents.  The mayor and city council had this idea back in March....to start a free bus service.

I should state for the record....this was a single bus....for the 'old-town' area of Wetzlar.  One bus....one driver.

The deal?  Free ride. 

How I would describe the Wetzlar old-town area?  It's a fascinating area, and worth a half-day visit.  But I should generally note....old-town is a bit hilly.  I'm saying it's like San Francisco......but if you were 70 years old...it's probably a slight challenge.  

The bus deal?  Free.  

Well....as of yesterday....for three weeks of April....there's been ONE single passenger in the time to ride the bus.

Old-town area?  East to west....probably 300 meters.  North to south.....maybe 400 meters.  That's it.

Just guessing but I would wager in another month....this service will end.  

Five German News Stories

 1. That attempt to use AI-chat to produce a fake Michael Schumacher interview?  The editor-in-charge was fired yesterday.

2.  Focus had an excellent piece talking about the fantasy that Germans might have....believing that from their electrical socket....they have no more nuke energy.  Reality?  They are buying/importing nuke energy from beyond the border.  Funny in a way....but demonstrates the naïve nature of Germans

3.  I noticed off Brit news.....the climate activists who were arrested for blocking a significant bridge in the London area....were sent off to several years of prison.  No longer a joke there.

Lot of hype building up for Monday....with claims in Berlin that a massive and ongoing effort by the Last Generation activists will start up.  

4.  Total cost for Covid figured for the German government....from day one on.....440 billion Euro (about half-a-trillion dollars).  WELT discussed this in the AM today.

5.  Transportation Minister has stood up and said 'no'....cities on their own....can't mandate 30 kph as the standard speed unless you meet the traditional requirements (traffic density for example).  Dozens of cities have efforts going on to mandate the '30-idea' (Mainz is an example).  

50 kph is the norm in most cities for streets and main avenues.  

Part of Mainz's reasoning goes to an effort to make the city more bike-friendly.  

WaPo Article: Russians Trying To Manipulate Germany?

 I've yet to assign a BS-status to this story....coming out of the Washington Post.  Where they got the story?  Some intelligence 'leak'.

So what they say (appears in Focus anyway)....is that the Kremlin is trying build up another German political group....using the AfD Party and Sahra Wagenknecht (currently within the Linke Party)....the far left group, which is maneuvering around 5-percent of the national vote.  

What Wagenknecht has said to this?  Mostly a BS article....she indicates that she'd have no cooperation with AfD in any form whatsoever.  

To be honest, it's hard to find anyone outside of the AfD Party....that wants some partnership or political aim going in the same direction.  

Has she indicated a creation of a new party?  Yes....but it's likely to be more left-wing than right-wing.

This being a BS 'leak' with no value?  I might suggest that.  

It wouldn't shock me that much if the Kremlin 'leaked' that they were funneling money and effort to the climate agenda folks....'Last Generation', and that they were keyed to collapse the German economy in a decade. 

But even if they hinted this....would anyone in the SPD or Green Party jump up and get freaked-out?  I doubt it.  

Glue Activists

 I sat viewing the Berlin action this AM on TV, and the Last Generation activists on their protest episode.

Police enforcement?  You get the impression this morning that either they had insider knowledge or some type of view over emails.  

Whatever location they selected for a 'glue-party' (to the pavement)....cops were very quickly at the site and as the activists put themselves into position on the pavement....barely have the glue on  their hands....cops intervened and 'yanked' them up and carried them over to the sidewalk.  

Scuffles and resistance?  Yeah....but it just gained them additional charges.

Activists not figuring surveillance?   I would take a guess that over the weekend.....the idea will finally come to them....either they have a spy or two in the midst, or they are actively on some police monitoring list.

As for glue drying?  If you were using Gorilla-glue....I'd say in 45 seconds....it's starting to stick.  Regular glue?  Probably in two to three minutes.  Elmers glue?  I'd suggest a good ten to twenty minutes.  

My Taxi Story

 I ended up in Wiesbaden this AM....for about 2.5 hours.  Mostly, I sat out on a cafe....facing the street, and near a stop-light.....sipping coffee and observing traffic.

In this 2.5 hour period, I noted two German taxis hitting the car ahead of them.  Both were minor collisions and in one case....the two drivers observed no damage, were agreeable, and just drove away.  

Here's the odd thing.....you can stand near any taxi stand in Germany now, and observe probably a quarter of the vehicles with minor damage.  

In the late 1970s and mid 1980s....you never saw taxis with body damage.  Somewhere around 2000.....you started to notice an occasional dent here and there.  Now?  It's a pretty regular thing to notice vehicle damage on taxis.

Poor drivers?  I don't know.  

I would generally give you advice here....if a passenger in a German taxi, and he's collided with someone....quickly pay what you owe, and withdraw from the scene. Staying should not be a priority. 

Five German News Stories

 1.  Still page one news over the soccer team FC Bayern.  Now, some rumors that the CEO of the team (Oliver Kahn) is up for dismissal.  Presently?  I'd give it a 2-percent chance of happening.  

2.   Glue kids (Last Generation activists) were busy in Berlin yesterday.  They had some idea of gluing themselves to a travel bus (for tourists).  Cops were called.  Driver was pretty angry, but pointed out....this was a climate-neutral designed bus.  Total waste of effort to hype the campaign against this type of vehicle.  The problem I see....with these type of buses....they proudly note their climate-neutral status on the side of it.  The activists should have noted this.  

3.  WELT had a piece this AM....talking over energy consumption in Germany, and that's it's very likely that 'some' of the energy to be used in the future....will be non-German and very likely from some coal-plant or nuke-plant.  

4.  The Chancellor (Scholz) and Energy Minister (Habeck) showed up in Rugen (far north island) yesterday.....to open up the newest Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) terminal.  Oddly, a fair number of protest folks showed up.....they don't want the port opened.  Suggestion is that it'll hinder tourists and pollute the area.  

5.  Some news company has gone to a AI-chat system to create a Michael Schumacher fake interview.  The family of Schumacher is peeved and threatening legal action.  There aren't that many laws existing in Germany to fit for this occasion (yet).  

My Humble Belief With All This Counterfeit/Fake Putin Chatter?

 There have been accusations for a hundred-odd years of fake political leaders being part of the landscape.  In North Korea presently?  Most look at Mr Kim and feel the guy is fake.  With Putin?  It's strongly suggested that a minimum of two imposters exist.

So, even if there are two fake Putins....then what?  

Nothing really matters until the day that you suspect that Putin really is dead, and the fake Putin is still being part of the gov't.

Could they function like this for a year?  Why not?  

Heat Pump Chatter

 Lately, I've been interested in the German gov't plan to mandate heat-pumps (in 2024).....over natural gas/heating oil furnaces.  If you had a aging system....say 15 years old....you'd have to consider the impact of cost and installation....to meet the law that has been written into effect..

So today, this odd statement came up.....from the managing director of ZSHK (heating association)....Helmut Bramann.

Bramann says that at best right now....across Germany....there are 40,000 technicians certified to install heat pumps.  Behind them....another 30,000 trainees (people who would be finished on school training and certified in the next year or two).  For most part, these trainees are young guys/gals in apprentice training today.

So Bramann then says....for any hope to meet the 2030 goal set by the government.....there would have be an additional 60,000 technicians in training right now (they don't exist presently).

Did the government even take into account the technicians required, and the man-hours for each home renovation?  I doubt it.  

The numbers expected (by the government)....being faked-up?  You can't help but think that it's just a bunch of PhD guys throwing around ideas and the boss said 'sure', and someone drafted up a law.  

The problem that you might own a house and be operating with a 14-year old oil furnace in 2028, and it's on it's last legs....maybe one more winter left before it dies.....with the heating technician telling you that the heat pump schedule is such...that he can't get to you....for 18 months?  Then you call the second guy....getting the same response.  The 3rd guy....the 4th guy....the 5th guy?  All the same?

The government now creating a barrier when you can't heat your home in winter?  I could see that scenario unfolding.  

Four German News Stories

 1.  The loss that FC Bayern suffered last night....pushes them out of the Champion's League....front-page news in Germany today.  Some expectations that the replacement coach (hired just a month ago)....will be exiting in the next month.  

Just an irrational amount of chatter over this sports event.

2.  Some accusations by Ukraine that this visit by Putin to a military unit in the eastern side of Ukraine....was a counterfeit/fake Putin. This accusation is said a great deal....zero facts to support the chatter.  

3.  This Abitur test screw-up in NRW....has affected around 30,000 students.  Lot of secret stuff over the test preparation, and when it was finally emailed out....it was in no format that could be downloaded....so the high school equivalency test had to be rescheduled. 

4.  Bear attack on some sheep in Bavaria.  They've got some DNA off the dead sheep.  Some chatter that hunting the bear down may be necessary.

Funny Comment

 It was a bit humorous today....the Turkish interior minister came up and said: 

"The whole world hates America.  There is no such thing as Europe. There is America. Europe is a trend in the Americas column."

Using his logic....Germany (as well as France) is simply US version 2.

It's one of those discussion topics that I could go on for forty lines.....but I'll leave it like he intended....just to ponder.

I should note, for the argument....we are in election season in Turkey....so stuff like this gets front-page attention.  

Three Immigration Things I Learned Today Over Germany

 This came out of a Focus piece:

1.  Of the 244-odd thousand people who applied for asylum in 2022...vast number were Syrians.  Of the one-million-odd Ukrainians who came....almost no one applied for asylum.

2.  The Citizen's Allowance now for a Ukrainian family of four....in Germany....is set to 1,670 Euro, and 770 Euro for rent.  It's approved on day one of arrival.

Now, I would say this....if you attempted to arrive into Frankfurt or Berlin and take the 770 Euro for rent.....it's not enough.  If you were going to Bitburg or some small town in Hessen?  Yeah, it's enough for a good decent two bedroom apartment. 

Is 1,670 Euro enough for a family to survive?  If they were careful on shopping and no one smoked?  Yeah.   

3.  If you live in the state of NRW (far NW of Germany)....there is this statistic....half the kids in the school system there are NOT German as a first language.  

The system is admitting that it's way more weight now and burdens.....for any kid to make it in their system. 

How State Elections in Germany Look For Next 18 Months

 10 August 2023: Bavaria and Hessen hold their state elections.  Presently, you can make the case that the CDU Party is  locked in to win for Hessen (probably in the 30 percent range.  Presently, the SPD Party is around 24-percent polling, with the Green Party near 20-percent.  The general expectation is that the CDU will win and partner up with Greens....who they've been partnered with for the past five years..

Bavaria?  The CSU Party is polling near 40-percent.  In second place is the Green Party at 18-percent.  At a low 4th place is the SPD  Party...near 8-percent. Suring into 3rd place?  AfD...near 10-percent.  

For 2024?  Three eastern Germany states....Brandenburg, Sachsen, Thüringen....slated for the fall.

It's over a year away, so polling would be questionable.  Presntly, in all three states....the AfD Party looks like they will carry a minimum of 20-percent of the vote in each of the three.  In Brandenburg's case....they are up near 25-percent.  In Sachsen....the CDU marginally outpaces the AfD.  In Thuringen?  AfD probably leads all parties (minimum of 3 points).  

All of this worrying folks?  I would say that the news media has been unable to convince people (particularly in the eastern region) of success stories with the Greens, SPD, or CDU.  

If all three of these elections went to the AfD Party?  Well....no one would partner with them, and the 2nd-place winner would have to accept some pretty marginal partnership.....to bring the state governments into being.

But this would pose a problem for the 2025 national election....if such a scenario were to unfold. 

Fake Operations?

 So I'll tell this story the best I can, but you probably will believe it's pretty fake.

To start off with....there is this medical condition called Barret syndrome.  You basically have a 'path' that leads from the mouth to the stomach, and because of acid reflix....your walls of the path become inflamed.

To counter this....you typically go to medications to lessen the stomach acids.  On very rare occasions (extreme)....you can have surgery.  

I'll just say....it is a unpleasant condition to have.

So RBB brought this up today....that a medical clinic around Berlin has been brought into court.   There's this German clinic which had two doctors, and for a period of five years....they conducted around 1,000 fake operations involving the Barret syndrome people. 

Surgical procedures were scheduled.....patient arrived...put into sedition, and at end....wheeled out an told it was a successful operation, while nothing was done.

Bill?  Sent to the insurance company.

Getting rich off this?  Best I can say is that bills and receipts occurred.  The guy who put the patients asleep...probably figure up to around 130,000 Euro.

Prosecutor now contacting folks?  Well....I am wondering how you explain this to folks.....they spent a day in a operating room and recovery area....probably getting another five to ten days of sick-leave on 'recovery' status.

Insurance companies recovering their money?  I doubt it.

Jail-time?  No one says much.  

New Last Generation Activist Agenda?

 There's supposed to be a traffic closure in and around Berlin today....with the Last Generation activists.  However, they also made the announcement that starting Monday....there would be a indefinite protest going on. 

Odds of this?  I would suggest that the legal system will probably start to detain/hold the activists next week (at least in Berlin) an more lengthy jail-terms will be prescribed (not just a fine).  

All of this....getting the activists more determined and 'violent'?  Well....one could make that case. 

The one poor argument they make....they want everyone in Berlin to seize upon public transportation and if you just ride 'it'.....then the protests won't affect you.  The negative to this....buses are a huge part of the transportation 'machine' and if you block roads/streets....the buses get behind schedule, and the positive nature of public transportation fails to occur (at least in their fantasy).

Five German News Stories

 1. Forsa, the survey folks (I consider them fairly reliable) went and asked the German public how they felt about being pushed into the heat-pump agenda (draft law being discussed....mandating that in 2024....no more new natural gas or oil heating furnaces in your house and you'd have to flip to heat pumps instead).  

How this goes with the public?  In Eastern Germany....it's almost 100-percent against the heat pump agenda of the gov't.  Across all of Germany?  It's around 80-percent who are NOT in favor of the heat pump idea.

What this really means?  I don't think the government went out and asked people for opinions when writing up the draft of the law, and it's been 'pushed' an awful lot. It's mostly a Green Party agenda, and with state elections.....2 in the fall of 2023, and 3 in the fall of 2024.....this could be serious problems if the Greens have this as a primary accomplishment.

2.  Some odd knife attack in a Duisburg gym yesterday.....three people in serious condition.  Attacker ran off and has not been arrested yet.

3.  There is some hype going on about a return to nuclear energy.  CDU/CSU party is picking up the pieces of this.  Not likely to occur in 2023 or 2024....but if energy prices continue to escalate....it might draw public attention.

4.  Some hype this week...over AfD Party.  Compared to a year ago....they are six points ahead of where they were then. Now at 15-percent support in general public.  

5.  WELT has a piece on the front-page.....Russia economical machine is in danger of running out of money for the war.  

Five Observations

 1.  Russia-Ukraine war: Since December, I'd say from ARD/ZDF (the two public TV networks in Germany)....the war coverage has dropped by 50 to 75 percent. You can actually get on some evenings (either at 8 PM or 9:45 PM)....zero mention of the war.  

It is rather odd but I think the lessening convinces the public that it is a lesser war now than back in the spring of 2022.  Whether true or not....it doesn't matter.

2.  Just odd....the CDU Party had a big show yesterday....claiming after months of self-examination....new goals for the party.

Oddly, from polling of members....the highest thing that people wanted from the party...was 'freedom' (82-percent).  I'm not sure if they mean MORE freedom, or just have a feeling that freedom still exists in some form. 

3.  Kind of interesting....the German Ministry of the Interior has now said it wants to regulate Artificial Intelligence (AI).  In particular (since it's run by the SPD)....they want labeling content to be on anything that comes from AI.  

I'm guessing if you ask AI about the Ministry monitoring and regulating it....they'd say it was fine....since AI was already running the SPD Party and the Interior Ministry.  

4.  The absolute end of nuclear energy in Germany now?  

Well....up until you run short, and then you buy nuke energy from some neighbor country.  I'm sure some Green Party folks will be weeping that they could not disconnect themselves from the nuclear plants.

5.  One odd point has been brought up about the German cannabis legalization business.  You (as a consumer/user) will be allowed to have up to six potted plants in your residence (I'm guessing they will simply trust people not to have 7 or 8)....but there is this funny rule inserted and discussed now.

Apparently, if you had kids or juveniles in the residence....the plants are not to be allowed.  If you did the math....things would be fine with young adults (no kids), and couples over the age of forty-five (kids have left the home).....everyone else would be screwed.  

Another odd rule inserted is that you can smoke cannabis in public areas (shopping districts, parks, bridges) after 8 PM. Anything smoked in the public area (like a park) before 8 PM? Forbidden and gets you into trouble with the cops.

Then you come to cannabis public clubs.....non-profit operations....that grow weed and sell it to you....but with zero profit.  Apparently, the clubs can't be more than 500 members (no one explains why 500).  They also tossed a funny rule into this.....you as a consumer...can only belong to one such club.  You couldn't be a member of the Frankfurt XYZ-club, and the Offenbach-Z-club, for example.  There's not a lot of logic over this rule....just gov't folks thinking you'd over indulge (I assume). 

I end with this funny comment from the Health Ministry....they don't want Germany being a marijuana tourist 'center' (like Amsterdam).

Baking Story

 I sat and watched ten minutes of news this AM from GBN (straight from the heart of the UK).  Here. Via Twitter.

They put up a nice colorful map (mostly orange/red) for the UK and Western Europe to show temperatures for the next couple of days.  

Key quote?  "Mini-heatwave to see Britons bake in 20C heat as hot air sweeps in from Europe."

20C heat?  Basically 68 F.

At best, it's the day that you pull the shorts out and debate the condition, and still remain in non-shorts attire.  T-shirt only weather? No....you still have a light jacket around.  

BS-level?  I'd give it a eight on the 1-to-10 BS scale I maintain.

Here's the thing....No one in the UK ever sees real serious 35C (ten days straight of harsh heat).  And if it were 35 to 37 C.....they'd be falling over in the dirt, or thrashing around in some kiddie-pool.

But I should note this....once you start to make daily use of rich colorful graphical displays....as each day advances from 20C being bright red....25C needs to be even brighter, and 30C needs to be super red.  The same logic should apply as it drops....where 15C is bright red....then 10C should be bright red....then even 2C should be bright red.

Two Crime Stories (Locally)

 1.  In my region, we had a grocery clerk who got ready to open the store....walking out into the parking lot to make sure things were 'fine'....then discovering that every single grocery cart had been stolen in the night.  Probably up around 100 of them....gone.

Cops? Investigating, and probably looking at video.  

I just started thinking of 'Trailer Park Boys' and how they'd steal carts.

2.  Back around eight months ago in Wiesbaden, we had some serious accident one night....where the one driver was driving 130 kilometers per hour, in a 50-zone. The guy ended up hitting some car, and killing the driver of that vehicle.

Wiesbaden police have spent around months reviewing the case....keeping the speeder in jail the entire time.  Yesterday, they finally announced...it'll be a murder case, and they believe they can prove some 'race' was underway.  German courts say that if racing was any part of a crash....with deaths noted.....you can file murder charges.  

Six German News Stories

 1.  There's a Focus commentary piece today which I thought was interesting.....written by Hugo Müller-Vogg.  Topic?  With all this prioritization over climate change....it's a pretty certain bet that major German companies will downsize and leave Germany.

He leads in with companies having a "saviors of the world" feeling.

I'd recommend a reading.....here.

It won't be a fast paced thing, but over a decade....you will start to notice that companies that require significant electricity to produce products....will figure out the places which offer cheaper power.  

Population decline?  Some people might see reasons to exit Germany.  The majority will tough it out.

2.  'Hart Aber Fair' public forum from last night (ARD, 9 PM)?  It was mostly an hour of live discussion over organic fake meat and carrying on as a vegan.  I gave it about four minutes of concentration, and then moved on.  

Just for reference, it's figured around 3.2-percent of German society is vegan.  For the record, it is a transitory number....there are always Germans who make the attempt to go vegan....sticking it out for six to twelve months, and eventually return to some level of marginal meat consumption (primarily giving up beef/pork, and trying to be a fish/turkey/chicken consumer).  

3.  Between various news networks....there's a fair amount of chatter going on....over the new German property tax law.  It would appear that it'll be challenged in court, over several different levels.  The court forcing the sixteen states to continue with the old tax program, until this is settled?  Hard to say.  These type of cases can take two years to get through the court system. 

4.  It's not a very clear reason....but the ARD/ZDF system wants the monthly tax increased....in order to reform (going to some type of digitalization), and they claim....they'd then be cost effective.  This goes along the line of suggesting all their production (including the sub-networks) would go along streaming avenues. 

People believing this logic?  I'd just offer the humble belief that less than half the viewership believe them.  

Using the streaming services currently?  In an average month, at least within my household....there might be one occasion where German public TV (from ARD or ZDF) is streamed.  Both have decent offerings.  If you were making a bigger deal of the lesser networks (like BR or HR).....anything that is new....is digitalized and you can load via streaming.  The old stuff?  No.

It would appear that hundreds of thousands of 'old' shows could be digitized (if you had enough money)....things going back to the 1990s, and probably onto the 1960s. 

My question....would that many people even watch old programming from 1975?  

5.  Out of Heilbronn....couple of months ago, several 'Last Generation' activists blocked a road (meaning, they glued themselves to the street).  They were detained, sent to court and fined.  Well....they paid the fine....exited the building and went back to block another road.

Yesterday, judge in Heilbronn said 'enough'.  Second arrest of this crew....jail time now....3 months.

Odds that they exit the jail, and block a road within 24 hours?  I'd give it a 50-50 odds situation.  

6.  Worries in Bavaria over a potential bear?  

Well....N-TV had a brief piece....some folks noted bear tracks out in some wooded area in Bavaria.  

If you remember the last bear (Bruno, 2006)....things didn't go well. 

Math Story

 I sat and watched the AM news on Brit GBN this morning.  Major topic?  Well....some study was concluded, and out of the fifty-odd million Brit adults existing today....they figure that around 8-million adults can only perform math up to what a nine-year-old kid could achieve.  Yeah, basically saying in the range of 15-to-20 percent were marginally capable of math.

To be honest, I suspect if you laid out the level of most 12-year-old kids and forty-year old people (German, American, it doesn't matter)....the vast number of forty-year olds probably stand at the same level as a 12-year old.

I remember sitting there around the 7th grade and having these word problems pop up.  The bulk of the class was unable to really handle this.  The same people today...at age 64?  Same issues...same results.

The journalists seeming shocked?  I'm pretty sure if you applied the word question to them....probably half would have problems....even if they claimed they were college-educated.  

Russians on 'Tinder'?

WELT says.....from internal intelligence information within Germany....that the Russian KGB guys are on 'Tinder' (the dating App) and trying find German soldiers using the dating/meet-up App.  

Setting up a future 'trap'?  Well....they present this discussion.

Anyone guessing on numbers?  No.  

This to unsettle the Bundestag and the political spectrum?  I'm guessing 'Sarge' and Captain-Schmidt will gather the single folks around (men and women) and have a talk this week about fake ladies/guys trying to hook up with them....possibly being Russian KGB.

It's hard to imagine how you would conduct this talk....probably suggesting that it's safer to meet someone in a local bar or German disco.  

Over the weeks to come.....more chatter will come out of this....Russian spy-gals being a worrisome trend.  

The One Out of Twenty Story

 I was looking over a WELT news item today.....they suggest that out of every twenty Germans....one is 'friendly' (acceptable) to the Reichsburger political spectrum.  What they means?  These are people who subscribe to the idea that the federal republic doesn't exist, and some pieces of the old 1914 Monarchy is in some form today.  Yeah, it's a bit right-wing and on the far extreme side of politics.

One out of twenty?  Well....it's suggested.  I would think it depends on how you ask the question.

This worrying the political spectrum?  It's enough that they have to counter the scale in some way.  You wouldn't want this to double or triple in size.

Actually having a discussion over the Monarchy that went away?  It might be interesting to present the case that it simply doesn't exist anymore.

Kinda Funny

 The Defense Committee....associated with the Bundestag (in Berlin) decided o hold a special meeting in Celle (Lower Saxony).

On a map?  Leaving Berlin....Celle is about 2.5 hours driving....westward.  By train?  Roughly the same amount of time.  

The Committee decided that it'd make more sense to fly over.....the Celle location was an actual military runway area...you could make the trip in 40 minutes.  They had a A400-M all scheduled up for the 'hop'.  

The issue, as you might sense....it's a in-country flight, and the environmental folks are all hyped-up.....you just shouldn't travel by air....in such a fashion.

What the environmental folks wanted...was the Bundestag political folks to just do the right thing....either drive in a bus (figure five hours with traffic...one way), or in a car (figure four hours driving at a higher rate of speed), or perhaps using a train....where there is no direct path, and you'd have to switch....doing the waiting game, an assume that Bahn issues don't occur.  My best guess on the train?  Six to eight hours. 

What the meeting was all about?  If you peel back the chatter....it was more of a meet-and-greet situation where Army troops would explain their equipment, and politicians would get 'smart' over military landscape.  

This flight from Berlin?  It's slipped up to page two news and triggering people to ask just how far you can go....in using a helicopter or a plane....to get from location X in Germany....location Y in Germany.

If you asked me....by 2030....will some federal law exist that forbids in-country flights in Germany?  I'd say it's a 90-percent chance that it'll happen, and you will find forty-odd flights that exist out of Hamburg, Munich, Frankfurt and Berlin.....where the plane departs and lands in a neighbor-country....allows for passenger entry/exit, and then re-enters German airspace to land at German airport.  

People being peppy or positive about being forced to ride the rail system?  Look, it's four hours on a good day by train from Berlin to Munich, or 6.5 hours from Munich to Hamburg.  Add in normal delays with the train, or potential AC failure in the summer months....I would suggest that more than 80-percent of the public would not be thrilled over a railway ride.  

Then you go and suggest riding a car from Munich to Berlin....with it taking seven hours on a high density traffic day?  

There's no doubt where things are going and this 'push' toward zero in-country flights. 

Three German News Stories

 1.  Officially, on the books....nuclear energy is now finished in Germany.  This past week....Bavaria (the state)....under the leadership of Soder (CSU)....took up the idea that they (the state of Bavaria) would like to take over the recently shut-down Isar-2 reactor, and run it in some fashion.  To do this....the fed folks (SPD-Green-FDP) would have to amend the Act which says all nuke energy plants will be shut-down.

Reasoning here?  Renewable energy by itself is not a absolute or proven 'path'.  Most everyone seems optimistic that it will occur, but at this point....the CSU position (at least for Bavaria)...they want nuclear energy as an option, and they want continued research.  Adding to it....there's still tons of 'waste' left and you need continued research into disposal methods.  

Feds cooperating on this?  No.  The Greens have tied themselves to an absolute end.. This will be openly discussed, and no advancement on the request will occur.

2.  Mass demonstration expected on 1 May in France....against the new French retirement age law (meaning you work to age 64).  Could be one of the largest protests in decades.

3.  The A-380 jumbo-jet was figured in the Covid era to be dead, and a fair number were taken off to be decommissioned.  Well....this past week....Lufthansa said 14 of them were being activated again.  Travel, at least around Germany, is returning to normal numbers.

The Thing About Hate-Speech

 In recent days in Germany, with the discussion coming up over a Twitter case developing and a national anti-hate-speech agenda emerging....people are going to eventually start to ask questions.

If you dislike what someone is talking about....can you automatically hang 'hate-speech' on it?  No....just because you dislike the subject...means absolutely nothing.

Something-something-something-Nazi....getting uttered, and not really meaning anything?  Well....that's one problem by itself.  You need to be able to discuss the 1920s/1930s with symbiology and propaganda used....if you want to have a clear memory of the past.  

If you erase this period entirely....its likely you will repeat it.  

This morning, I noted this Twitter commentary....American had gotten tagged by some German for hate-speech.  

The subject?  The guy had text which asked the question....is fat a gender? 

Twitter went by the book...reviewed it, and said 'no, it's not hate-speech'.

I probably notice a dozen of these 'reports' each week, and typically....it infuriates a fair number of people (not living in Germany) who get reported.  Instead of lessening tensions....I'd say all this reporting has simply hyped up tensions.

Hate-speech anti-chatter turning into hate-speech itself?  I'm starting to wonder about this subject.  

Three German News Stories

 1.  Just an odd story out of Ludwigshafen.  School officials are discussing how to handle this situation....first grade operation....2 groups....based on grading at this point (maybe 2 months left in the school year)....98-percent of the group (40 kids) will fail the first grade.

The big part of the story?  These two groups had a migration background.  Open discussion has become a serious discussion.  School says they simply don't have the manpower to impact the language problems involved.  

How serious are German schools about failing kids?  If you are uncooperative, not turning in homework....no problem in failing a kid, and it's a regular affair.  However, it's just awful rare that you have an entire class like this.

Trying to make up some excuse, and passing them?  Then what?  They aren't prepared for the 2nd grade....will you make up another excuse then as well?

2.  WELT had a piece this AM....talking over nuclear energy research.  It's been downgraded to such an extent....that German nuclear scientists suggest a future program or research won't exist.

Behind it all....I would suspect that French companies are arriving and recruiting the German nuclear scientists.

3.  The German Federal Statistics Office sat and looked at inflation and cost impact.  For sugar products (like cookies), they say over the past year....such items went up by 34-percent.  

I won't argue about that.  For the premium type cookies...it's probably 50-percent more that you pay now....compared to like the end of 2021.  

The Census Trans Story

 Two years ago....the UK decided to do a census, and they wanted a count of trans-people.

At the end of this....half of one-percent were saying they were trans.

For some reason....people stood around for about a year....mostly scratching their head, because they didn't believe the numbers.

Well....they came upon a number which made little sense....a very high number of refugee guys (Iraqis, Afghans, Syrians, etc) said they were trans.

Ten percent of people in the Census is known to be a 2nd language situation.  So it's now believed that a large percentage of folks...misunderstood the question, and they thought the Brit census guy was asking if they were 'transitory'....meaning movement from country X to country Y.

Yeah....the guy being asked....simply didn't grasp what the heck trans meant.

How many?  They suggest that one in 67 Muslims.....had this trans issue, but it's a misunderstanding issue.

So the numbers are wrong?  Yeah.  

I would imagine some Syrians are sitting there.....laughing over this now.  

Public TV Chatter

 WELT went out and discussed the idea of increasing the TV-Media tax onto the public (currently at 18.36).

ARD/ZDF would like to open a discussion where a new tax increase would occur.  The rumor is that they'd like to discuss 3 Euro a month more (probably in 2026 timeframe).  

The last raise?  86 cents, in mid-2021.  

What WELT found?  Across the country....no one  is pumped-up to pay more.  It doesn't matter what party people profess....the majority of folks see no reason for a raise.

What's going on?  The individual states (16 of them) have the trump-card to play...in pushing ARD/ZDF to change/evolve.  

WELT suggests that massive change will likely come this time.  I'm not that convinced.

For reference.....ZDF (Channel 2) was never supposed to exist, and it's rarely laid out in presentations how they were created and the reason how it was driven to oppose ARD (Channel 1).  You can stand in a chat forum and find literally no one willing to discuss in front of Germans.  I think if the story were openly discussed.....ZDF would be pushed into the corner to end.  

Oddly, if you do the viewer numbers....ZDF has more viewers....than ARD.

Book Chatter

 Rainer Zitelmann wrote up a piece for Focus today, and discussed the new book coming out from  Greta Thunberg.  Name of the book?  'Climate Book'.

Zitelmahn read the book and gave a review.  Key comments?  Well...Greta basically said that capitalism (as we know it) has to conclude/end, and that the state needs to carry out mandates on people....to bring change.

It's a thick book....roughly 480-odd pages, and it's more of a collection of essays....which she contributes some of the content, while others also offer commentary.

You can read the review here.

I won't offer a review or commentary over the book (I simply haven't read it).  But I will comment on this odd phenonium of anti-capitalism and climate change.  

Dirty air, pollution and poverty were key phrases uttered in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s.  Oddly, through technology, innovation and efforts....things changed and improved.  

To suggest capitalism will end climate change.....you need to have logic or reasoning to put on the table.  Suggesting government mandates will solve your problems?  I haven't much of an indicator this is popular with people.  

This book to be discussed much with Germans?  I would imagine it'll be dragged out for several chat forums.  

Renovation Story

 For an outsider (non-German)....after two or three years of walking around....most people would agree that there are great differences in homes/apartments, and living conditions.  

My wife took me once to visit a friend who lived in a house built around 1905.  Wood structure....taken care of...but if you asked me on insulation or being wind-proof?  Ha...I would have given the place a '3' out of a one-to-ten score.  

The EU this year has decided to pick up renovation as a major topic and force people to upgrade their homes....whether they can afford it or not.

N-TV had a great update on this and I'd recommend it.

First, the EU is drafting words to say all fossil-fuel heating must go by 2035.....natural gas, coal, wood, oil, etc.

Second, efficiency classes will be forced down upon home owners.  'G' level (the worst category....would be limited to 15-percent of the nations homes.  If you said 21-percent of the nation was 'G' level....well....you'd be forced into a unpleasant position of mandating.

Third, you have the problem of older people reaching a stage....they'd like to sell their home, but they can't get true value because of the energy rating.  Renovating an older home?  Where would you get the 100,000 Euro?  Banks willing to loan that much to a couple nearing 60 years old?  I doubt it.

What I'll say is that there is a massive amount of chaos approaching in  ten years, if this program goes to pass, and is mandated.  People will be stuck with homes that can't be sold or handed-down to their kids. Fake-renovation will likely start up.....with people grinning as they get certificates which are fraudulent in nature.

Six German News Stories

 1.  NDR has a report...there's a Danish journalist collecting all the data in the Nord Stream I/II explosion.  He says....that facts don't match up in the boat rental and Ukrainians conducting the 'job'.  

He suggests that some facts now lead back to Russians (from Kaliningrad). 

After reading through his various comments....I'd say he has more than three facts to support his commentary, and it's worth reviewing.  

2.  There's talk of a Baltic Sea national park along the eastern side of German.  Some cities are now worried that restrictions will come into play.....dissolving the current tourism numbers.  Whether this stops the national park chatter or not....unknown.

3.  Down in Heidelberg....some guy was hired to 'clear' a apartment.  In the midst of the clearing....he finds gold bars/coins.

Cops get called, and after a long review.....the old renter was a 90-year old guy....who'd bought the gold years ago (suggesting more than 40 years ago)....and had forgotten about the hiding place and the gold.  Value?  135k Euro.  

What's left?  Well...the old guy gets it back, but there's some discussion about this being brought to the police and if a finder-fee is in order (typically....you'd be paid 'something' for being honest).

Note on the German finder's fee law....it generally says between 3 and 5 percent of the value....ought to be given to the finder. In this case....you'd be talking about 4,050 Euro minimum (coming from the old guy).  

4.  The Pfalz state government has decided to use old Air Force dorms/housing, to house refugees...at Hahn (the old US base).

The base closure?  Well....it was closed back in early 90s....so this housing/dorm structures....have been mostly sitting there.  Personally, I would have doubts that it's 'safe' (without mold/mildew).  Maybe they renovated it and cleaned it all up. But the bigger issue....which any AF guy who spent time on Hahn would readily identify....there's really nothing there in the Hahn region (no excitement, no jobs, no atmosphere).  Whether this will be acceptable for the refugees?  Unknown.

5. Hype going on with the Turkish election....in Germany?  Well....if you live around the Turkish neighborhoods/sections of town....yes, there's a fair amount of chatter going on.  Turks in Germany would be voting in the upcoming election.

This bothering the Germans?  If you review the words of the chief prosecutor of Germany....he wants zero 'inhumane speech' (meaning no hate speech).  

6.  DW Report......some van crossing over from Belgium into Germany was stopped to 'audit'.  What the cops found?  Cooked bats.  

Several violations....uncooled fish in the vehicle as well.  Driver was a Ivory Coast citizen.  

Guess I should add....the guy had no license, while driving the vehicle....so he's in trouble for that issue as well.

The bats?  If you are from Asia....it's considered a delicacy and acceptable.  With Germans? I doubt it.  But if you didn't identify them as bats....some people might have thought they were chicken, and maybe they taste like chicken (for all I know).

Bear Attack Story

 About a week ago, I essayed a piece on a bear attack in Italy....where a jogger was killed by the bear.  So the rest of the story has fallen into place.

Earlier this week, they had the burial of the jogger, and it's consumed a lot of local criticism.

You see....this bear, as noted by DNA....is the sister of 'Bruno' (yeah that 2006 'bad-bear' in Germany).  

Bruno?  Back in early 2006....for the first time in over 100 years....a bear appeared in the German Alps.  

Opinion was mostly split....either it's unsafe to allow a bear to wander around, or it's wonderful that bears have returned to the German landscape.  

I'd say for about six weeks....it was more positive than negative.  He wasn't really a German bear....he was believed to be from the Italy/Slovakia region.  

Eventually, Bavarian leadership finally said 'enough' and hired bear-hunters from Finland to come down and rid them of the problem.

For about a month, this Finn-hunter show went on, and it was more of an accidental hunt than a serious effort.  I've always thought someone would make a comedy out of the whole story.

After around a month, the Finn guys were dismissed, and the Bavarians just said any German could now hunt 'Bruno' down, and within 24 hours....'Bruno' was dead.

It would later be argued where 'Bruno' was shot.....which district owned 'Bruno' remains, and how Bavaria had to take charge....bringing his body to Munich to be stuffed and put into a museum.  

At some point around 2014, I happened to be in Munich and actually saw the 'Bruno' display.

This all bringing back up the good-bear versus bad-bear discussion?  Well....yeah.  And it consumes a lot of intellect, BS, and moderated discussions.  

Luckily, this is not a bear attack on German soil, and it's mostly Italian engaged in this debate.  

Twitter and Germany

 The chief prosecutor for Germany has stood up this week and said 'yes, we will move forward' on Twitter violations of German law on hate crimes.  The amount of the fine they are discussing?  50-billion Euro (yeah, more than the value of the company).  

What this amounts to?

Well....first, you start with Article 5 of the Basic Law which say: “Every person shall have the right freely to express and disseminate his opinions in speech, writing and pictures, and to inform himself without hindrance from generally accessible sources."

Then you go back to 2017 when a special new law was put up....NetzDG was the title of this effort, which is aimed only the 'big' social media companies.   It basically implies that you have to go and monitor content, and remove toxic content when warranted.

The general problem with NetzDG?  You have to readily define hate-speech....so various complaints will flow in, and in the bulk of them....after a review....the 'bad-boys' are no longer 'bad-boys'.  It's not a perfect system.  

The other issue....the Germans wanted this to apply beyond the border....meaning an American in Iowa....might be dragged into the NetzDG business.  

What happens if Elon's Twitter is dragged into a German court?  I would imagine they will bluntly want a clear definition on hate-speech, and this might not be possible.

If things get really heated?  Well...Elon would just turn off Twitter to Germany.....saying it's too much for the typical German to handle.  

Why all this hype?  Well...Germans believe (at least the intellectuals believe this) that their society is very prone to hate-speech, and you have to tie the social media stuff down, and limit commentary or criticism.  I might agree....they are prone to being 'blunt' and wanting you to agree to their criticism of the problem (whatever it was).

So, you might be wondering....if Elon turned it off...wouldn't people just resort to VPNs, and continue on?  I would imagine for 30 days....Germans would grumble about the loss of Twitter, and the news media would talk about this a good bit....then wake up to realize that the bulk of German Twitter users are still there....just by VPN use.  Outlawing that next?  Maybe.

As for how each 'crime' here....equals a fine of 50-million Euro?  They simply picked the sum out of the air, and said x equals y.  If this goes up to the EU court system?  They probably will ask how this sum ever got invented.  

The driving force behind NetzDG?  Well....the law says that any content is considered illegal.....if it incites people to hatred, insult or threat.  If you really pushed on this....I'd say a quarter of everything spoken on Twitter....even comments by politicians, might be considered this way.  

I guess it would help if you made a comment on Twitter....if when you hit 'publish'....it went to a German gov't official who'd have 7 days to review your 2-line comment and allow it to be published or to deny it.  This would resolve all the issues, and lessen content by a fair amount.  If you didn't like it?  Well...you'd up and move to another country.  

How The German Cannabis Plan Will Work

 The Health Ministry came out today and laid the basic path for weed to be sold in Germany.

What you can call it....is legalization-lite.

Non-profit 'organizations' would be allowed to exist in Germany and sell 50 grams of weed, per month....to 'members'.  

If you were growing your own weed?  You'd be allowed seven plants, or five cuttings a month.

At some point, a second deal would be offered where private shops would be allowed (licensed).

How a non-profit weed group would exist?  I'm not that sure, and this part of the discussion sounds a bit comical.  

All of this talk still hinging on the EU 'allowing' this to occur?  Yeah.  

My opinion that a bunch of folks will start growing their own weed?  It wouldn't shock me if half-a-million homes in Germany....within two years have their own 'weed-garden'.  

Public TV Chatter

 INSA, the polling group.....went out to Germans and asked....how do you feel about paying the public TV/Radio tax (set at 18.36 Euro a month per residence).

39-percent said they'd rather pay nothing at all.  

Rumor chatter over the past month indicates that ARD/ZDF (the public TV  giant) would like a 3-to-4 euro increase on the monthly fee (probably by 2025).

So far, the political parties have tried to stay away from the topic.  I would imagine both AfD and FDP parties would like to position themselves into situation where public TV in Germany reformed themselves....into a much lesser organization.  

Faked-Up Crap?

 Over the past couple of days....across the US and Europe (even Germany).....a number US gov't folks are highly disturbed about a highly classified document which out onto social media sites.

I noticed via ZEIT (German newspaper) this AM....the South Korean government looked at how they were mentioned on this top secret document, and they were mostly amused.  Whatever was said about them....was fake/bogus.

They didn't say ALL of the document comments on them were wrong/faked-up, but most were.

So....is the document faked-up?  

I would suggest that whoever wrote the basic structure of the classified document....probably had various elements which they felt were true, and they weren't readily proven.  But they went ahead and produced some gov't document with the bogus information there anyway.

Crappy mess to clean up?

If you have a quarter of the document which turns out to be deemed fraudulent or faked-up....it makes the Pentagon and it's producer team look like idiots.

However, it's funny how this was topic number one last Friday, and it's come around for a 2nd trip.....mostly over faked-up information.

Kinda funny but not for the idiots who wrote the summary.  

3.4-Million Story

 I sat and read a statistics piece from German Ministry of Statistics.

They say from the 84-million in population....around 3.4 million Germans have never (ever) used the Internet . 

They even have a term for the people.....offliners.

Back around 15 years ago, I went to a car registration office in Kaiserslautern.  They'd be a manual operation all the way up to around 2006.  I walked in one day.....the typewriters were gone...the fifteen employees were gone (they were all age 50 and above). 

So, they had around a dozen folks....all in the age group of 18 to 24.  Computers on each desk.  Fresh, new and respectful prospective.  None of the grump behavior that you saw before.

I asked the young lady I was dealing with....what happened. She grinned and said that the gov't authorities had announced that computerized registration was arriving in a year, and if the older employees would accept training.  With the exception of the money-clerk.....they all said NO.    They were quietly moved out....to non-computer jobs in the building.

My perception over this 3.4 million number?  I would suggest that another twenty million are marginally capable of reading/writing emails....taking/sharing photos....and the weather/news.  If they were to get a new router or printer....they'd have to pay some guy to come over and set up the situation. 

It's not the end of the world, but it's a sign of how fast technology arrived, and that only half the country readily operates within this sphere.  

Five German News Stories

 1.  I noticed brief news out of Hamburg....cocaine has dropped in price....so it's now even cheaper than a beer.  

2.  The Inspector of the Bundeswehr (German Army) now says that the low state of ammo and weapons....is such...that Germany cannot fulfill it's NATO obligations.  

Took a lot of hard work determination to reach this glorious level....I'm sure medals and awards will be given out over this achievement.

3.  German rail service is offering a 'friends' discount (20-percent off).....but you have to drag three folks with you (minimum).

4.   Foreign Minister Baerbock bill to the gov't for a make-up artist?  137,000 Euro.  

5.  Because of the increasing trend of criminals blowing up ATM machines around Germany....the government is discussing mandated security measures....which will add more security to the building structure....at a higher cost.  Anticipate fees to increase.  

'Net Zero' Chatter

 Worth a viewing...about 10 minutes long.  Brit Just Stop Oil's Phoebe Plummer trying to bring public attention to 'net zero'....against Jacob Rees-Mogg on GBN.

I'll just say....if a thousand people watched it....it'd shock me if she brought more than five to her side/conviction.  

The Flights Which Never Occurred

 So this is a story involving the city/airport of Stuttgart, and the city/airport of  Böblingen. For reference (in case you aren't former US Army or stationed in the area).....Stuttgart is down in the SW region of Germany....mostly flat.  Böblingen is about 10 km away from Stuttgart (city).

If you were judging airport to airport....Stuttgart's airport is to the south of Stuttgart.  The Böblingen airport?  Well....it mostly dissolved away in the past 20 years.  The control tower, hangars and support structure have been all torn down.  Officially on the books....what they do operate is a helipad.  That's it.

So, a number of months ago....the Greenpeace folks went and asked for a survey of the shortest routine commercial flights, and a normal regular flight came up between Böblingen and Stuttgart's airport....roughly a 10 minute flight.  Naturally, this disturbed the Greenpeace folks....as totally unnecessary.  

They yanked on the chain and wanted an explanation.  This was mostly about C02 use, and they were going to halt the terrible flight business.

So the topic came up and no one knows of any regular flight between the two.  

The type of plane used?  A C208 type....small prop plane.  

Using the helipad?  Well....no one agrees that this happens.

The company that did the survey for Greenpeace?  They seem to suggest now that the pilots using the C208....have a transponder in use...that the three-letter code for Böblingen, while they are actually taking off from Stuttgart's Airport.  Illegal?  Well....no one has said that.

This whole discussion turning into a comedy?  I started add up the man-hours wasted on this....Greenpeace, the research company, the two airports, two mayors and so forth.  I would imagine a minimum of 100 man-hours were wasted here...all centered on some waste of C02 and air travel....which in reality....never occurred. 

Kinda funny....as German humor goes.

Künstliche Tussy?

 I had to go and look up a German phrase today.....künstliche Tussy.  

Künstliche by itself in German.....means artificial or made-up.  You might use the term with plants, IT software, or landscaping.  

Tussy?  Well....it generally means a younger woman, a babe, or a 'chick'.

So this was a commentary about a artificial 'chick'?  Yeah.

A younger German guy would suggest that this is a young lady who has sixteen different make-up features....a 90-Euro nail-job....and has on shoes that run 300 Euro minimum.  

This was thrown-around commentary over a German TV show (naturally, NOT on public TV), and a particular member of a jury 'awarding' points.  

The problem with German entertainment....people get attracted to all this artificial stuff, and the more fakeness that you insert into a program...it seems to draw even more viewers.  So being just regular artificial.....is today not enough. 

Five German News Stories

 1.  Some kind of shooting event in the area of Asperg (Baden-Württemberg state) from Saturday evening..

Dead?   One 18-year old. One other 18-year old wounded.

All that cops say is that they have arrested the suspect.  Some weird case where the guy shot from his house.....said to be the son of a local guy (some kind of Serbian ethnic status).  Weird factor.....guy was in his underwear as cops stormed the house.  I would assume....some kind of drug use going on.

2.  Lot of chatter over the release of these secret documents from the Pentagon.  German coverage ranks it in the top three stories presently.  I will say....makes Ukraine look fairly weak.

3.  Subway employees in Berlin sent a 'fire-letter' to their bosses.  A 'fire-letter' usually details some serious allegations.  They say the subway system in Berlin smells like urine....there's serious signs of drug use.....and passengers are actively bullying employees.

So they generally want two things.....more security people (cops?  No....it sounds like they want security people hired by the subway system).  Second, they want laws enforced....they see a lax mindset by judges/prosecution in the city.

I'll just say...since the 1980s and the growth of drug use around Germany....the homeless population has a direct relationship to the crappy appearance of the subway stations and train stations.  

4.  Minimum wage presently?  12 Euro per hour.  There's chatter of another rise in 2024. No idea of what the rate might be.

Oddly, they are also pushing for an agenda that no parcel/mailed box.....can weigh more than 20 Kilograms (44 pounds).  If the box were to be more.....it has to be a 2nd guy helping.  Adding more cost to the purchase of items?  No doubt.  But when you look at the body shapes of delivery folks....vast majority I've seen in the past five years were in the 70 kilogram range (155 pounds).  It took an awful lot of strength for them to haul a 20 Kilogram box.  

5.  N-TV news had a short segment.....German politicians want to ensure that Last Generation activists aren't recruiting in schools.  I would suggest....it's way to late, and the 'fox' has already gotten themselves into the school system.  You move up in the Fridays-For-The-Future system, and graduate to the Last Generation status.  

Self-Determination Act Having Consequences Soon?

 Draft bill going around the Bundestag....basically would give all Germans age 14 and older....the right to select their gender.  You'd just visit your local townhall....sign some forms, and you'd change your gender (and first name).  

This is going forward and in the last couple of weeks...someone noted this other effort....having a 50-50 display of men and women in the Bundestag....could be affected by this....with political folks just showing up...noting they were female, and they'd get their seat in the Bundestag without any hassle.

I suspect a lot of women would be frustrated if the law was used in this way.

I noticed in some social commentary....folks were beginning to ask questions about the first name business....if suddenly you had 50,000 German youths walk in and rename themselves 'Elvis' (both as male and female)....would the system allow you to do that?  

There is a banned name list....for example, you can't use what is considered a verb....as a proper name.  

But I also went to the idea...just how many people will go and do the first-name change.  I don't think the political folks spent a lot of time thinking how this would go.