Fair amount of chatter in Poland over a perceived threat that might occur....where Belarus (with Wagner contractor help) would take control of this 'gap' area between Lithuania and Poland....leading to Kaliningrad.
Amount of roadway? 135 km.
You'd basically be talking about a 6 to 10 km wide area where a roadway would be taken....secured...allowing Russian logistics to flow to their 'controlled' state.
First, to the obvious question....are the Russians being hindered in delivering to Kaliningrad now? No. Other than military hardware.....Lithuania hasn't hindered or halted any vehicles.
If the Russians were this stupid....how many troops would it require to secure and 'hold'? Just to go the first level up and say you had some brief control.....I'd suggest in the neighborhood of 20,000 to hold this roadway path of 135 km.
Opposing them? Lithuania would call upon NATO....both German and Poland would immediately act, with the US.
Would Russia/Belarus have the logistics to hold for longer than 30 days? I'd have doubts that this effort lasted more than seven days, and Kaliningrad would likely fall within four weeks from lack of logistics support (since the roadway would be cut).
The odds of this stupid objective? I personally give it less than a 10-percent chance.
A lot of this in some weird form because the original residents of Kaliningrad left shortly after the war? From a lot of accounts that I've read of the 1945 to 1950 era....I doubt if 1-percent of the pre-WW II residents remained there after 1950. What you see mostly are Russians who moved there and established long-term residence.
So....mostly a bullshit story? I would lean that way and say the mere suggestion of some stupid military script like this....is a joke.
I would likely agree....the majority of Kaliningrad residents are pro-Russia in sentiment, but they have put themselves into a odd relationship where they need Russian support....to exist as they are.
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