Over the past ten days, I've probably seen at least a dozen articles talking about the 104 km (64 mile) border region between Lithuania and Poland....that has a roadway that allows Russian logistics to occur to Kaliningrad (from Belarus).
Since the Wagner force has been sent to Belarus....this rumor-chatter has been going on.
I generally discount this for two reasons. First, you would require armor/APCs to really move and take the 'Gap'....something in short supply for the Russians. Second, the amount of support to carry on this past the first seven days....doesn't exist....either in Belarus or Russia.
Air power in the region? If you count NATO fighters....there's probably a twenty-to-one edge.
I might agree for the first 24 hours in taking the 'Gap'....this Wagner force might have some success, then run into serious issues on the 2nd day.
End of the Wagner 'legend'? I would argue that having serious losses over a one-week period....the Wagner folks would lose their legend status.
Then what? Some retreat, or full nuke-use to send a message by Putin? You could have forty different scenarios in this type of situation.....none favoring Russia.
So I think the chatter is mostly BS, and no grab will ever take place.
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