If you go through and read most of the German news sites, they are all hyped up on this 'new' renegotiation effort by the SPD Party and their chief (Frau Nahles).
There are several odd factors in this news story which kinda stand out. First, all of this Maassen-episode leads back the murder in Chemnitz....but as you view the news from public TV from the entire past five days....NOT a single word is uttered on Chemnitz or how this episode started. I admit, it's odd that no analyst or journalist talks to that murder episode.
Then you come to the ultimate that the SPD laid down in the first place....that Maassen had to leave the chief of internal security job. In their mind, that meant a termination or firing. When the smoke cleared, Seehofer (the Interior Minister and a CSU Party guy) said fine, Maassen would be leaving that job. Then he turned around and promoted Maassen to the chief of staff for Seehofer's Interior Ministry. Yes, a promotion and a 2,000 Euro pay-raise.
Over the past forty-eight hours? Now you have various promi-journalists and promi-German-Hollywood types who've gone anti-Maassen and anti-Seehofer, and they've started to use social media to promote their hype. Working-class Germans? They frankly don't give much standing to this gimmick.
So how will this renegotiation work? Frau Nahles will walk in and have this three to four hour meeting with Chancellor Merkel and Herr Seehofer. All three of them have better things to worry about and work on, so right off the bat.....this is a fairly big waste of time.
Then you have this issue....the whole emphasis was that internal security folks would have to have a new boss who would be acceptable to disinformation/misinformation and move ahead with investigations based on biased information (as silly as it sounds, it's the blunt truth). What happens to Maassen really doesn't matter after you establish this requirement.
The 2,000 Euro raise? This was probably uttered at least five times last night as the ARD (public TV news on Channel One) tried to explain their side of the story. In the SPD mindset, Maassen just can't get a pay raise if he was 'fired' (the Seehofer side of this is that Maassen wasn't ever fired).
How this three to four hour meeting go? No one can say for sure. A number of folks (mostly just journalists) stress that this could be the end of the coalition....that Nahles must have her way and that Maassen must be fired, to end the 'torment'. I think Seehofer is standing there and grinning because if there is a national election forced presently....the SPD loses four points (minimum) than what they got in September 2017's election.
Polls over the past six months haven't really helped to show a strong SPD, and it suggests the party is at the weakest point since WW II. It's possible that the AfD (the mortal enemy of virtually all political parties in Germany) would clear 17 to 20 percent in a fresh election, and I would project the Green Party clearing a minimum of 15 percent (maybe enough to be number three in poll numbers.
Seehofer knows all of this. If he were to fire Maassen? It'd all lead back to a court case where Maassen sues the government and gets a retirement pay-scale related to the chief of staff job. The SPD promi-players would all freak out if they knew this might be the final result, and they basically helped to give him a major plus-up on retirement.
A clear five-star mess, which the public sees as evidence of a banana-republic.
What to watch for when Monday arrives? First, what comes out of this Merkel, Nahles, and Seehofer meeting? Second, does the coalition dissolve? Third, does some internal campaign start to downsize Nahles and her leadership within the SPD? Fourth, can they find the right 'new' guy to lead the internal security agency of Germany, who will readily accept misinformation/disinformation and biased accounts as being legit?
It's an amazing 'opera' to watch unfold.
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