There are various hints over the past few days within the SPD Party.....that maybe the coalition deal (between Merkel's CDU Party and the SPD) might be stressed and coming to an end. Focus covered part of this story this morning.
The boss of junior SPD group (JUSO).....Kevin Kuhnert....has strongly suggested that the coalition needs to just end....the SPD can't work with the CDU.
To go onto the next scenario....what happens if the SPD 'quit' the coalition? Well....it gets kinda interesting.
The CDU would have two main avenues to advance upon.....without having to force another election. The first would be to revisit the Green Party-FDP parties and see if they could now form. My best guess is that they've burnt enough bridges and it's virtually impossible to form such a coalition.
The second scenario has never been used (ever) in Germany but it has been used in some European countries. You basically run a minority government. Yes, it's a weakened government and you are continually fighting off opposition parties. Merkel and the CDU could probably survive for a year under this umbrella system of government before calling for a fresh election.
What the SPD has to worry about? This gets even more interesting.
The SPD in the Hessen and Bavarian elections of 2018.....are NOT expected to do that well. In the four elections of 2019 (the EU election and the three east German state elections)? Same story.
My guess is that if the SPD walked out of this government coalition situation, Merkel would attempt to limp the CDU along to the fall of 2019 (after the last state election in 2019).....then say 'enough' and call for a fresh election. The SPD at that point might be down near 12-to-14 percent, with the Greens then up around 18-percent. The intent would be make the future Greens.....the big partner of the CDU and marginalize the SPD to a great extent in future politics.
I suspect the SPD realizes it's weakened position and will just carry on, with negative comments on a continual basis.
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