What's been said by various news outlets in Germany is that a major meeting with the leadership of the SPD Party and the Executive Committee of the party....to discuss the party boss (Nahles), the situation with Maassen, and if the coalition should be dismantled....will occur early next week.
To lay out the facts here: (1) Maassen was expected to be fired as head of internal security of Germany because he refused to cooperate on going after perceived right-wing figures in Chemnitz.....but he was instead promoted to chief of staff to Seehofer (the Interior Minister). (2) Nahles had a stake in this mess, and people think she should have demanded his firing and when that failed....the coalition should have been dissolved. (3) A lot of this drama is tied to the two state elections to be held within the next thirty days (Hessen and Bavaria).
Adding to this fury, if the SPD dissolved the coalition? Well....Chancellor Merkel would probably have to call for a new and fresh election (figure the end of November). I looked over this morning at a poll that the Focus new people did and it brings some insight to the bigger mess.
Right now, the CDU/CSU is figured to only have around 27.5 percent of the national vote (a big drop from September 2017's election). The SPD? Also in trouble, at 16.5 percent.
The Afd Party (the anti-immigration group) sitting at 17 percent. The Greens have moved up to around 14.5 percent. The Linke Party at 11 percent, and the FDP at 10 percent.
If we went to an election and these results were actual voting pattern? It's hard to imagine how the CDU/CSU folks would be able to form any government (they can't touch the AfD folks or the Linke Party). The SPD will refuse to participate in another coalition. So you are left with the Greens and FDP situation. Back in Nov/Dec of 2017.....those two groups tried to partner up with the Merkel crowd and got nowhere. I don't think things have improved.
So if the CDU/CSU folks failed in their attempt to form a coalition after a forced election....what happens? The President of Germany has the option of asking the second-place or third-place winner to form a government, so you examine that scenario.
The AfD as the number two winner? Zero potential to put a coalition together.
The SPD as the number three winner? There would NOT be enough votes to partner with the Linke Party and Greens....however, if they could convince the FDP to join.....they'd have 50-plus percent of the vote. The odds of the FDP agreeing in this coalition? I give less than a 10-percent chance. On top of that.....four parties to form a government? That would be a stressful mess for people to handle.
So another election by spring of 2019? Yeah, that could be the result.
This meeting next week for the SPD leadership is a big deal and it could mean the end of Nahles and her leadership over the party. It could mean the end of the coalition. But basically, it's just a big drama to have an affect on the Hessen and Bavarian state elections.
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