New Local Ban Rules

 Here in my local state of Hessen yesterday, they added three new Covid-19 ban rules:

1.  So, depending on the infection rate (35 infections per 100k residents over 7 days, or 50 infections per)....you can arrange a private party situation at your house or some local pub.

If 35 infections over the past week occur, great....you can have 50 guests.

If 50 infections over the past week occur, not so great....you can only have 25 guests.

Now, if you were planning your wife's 50th birthday.....is it truly possible to now plan the event?  No..

You might have this planned, with a guitar player, and 48 guests....only to find 3 days prior to the party at your favorite pub.....that the infection rate shifted, and you have to cancel  22 guests. 

2.  For cafes, restaurants and pubs, and the private data requirement.....if you provide a incorrect data, or people are unable to be read it, or just plain fake names are on the sheet....50 Euro fine on the pub.  

I paused over this one.  My German wife has some of the most unreadable handwriting possible.  So I can already anticipate that if she writes the info down....the waiter is going to pause....hand the sheet back, and suggest I write it. 

3.  Finally, if you return from some high-risk area....you MUST go directly to your own house ASAP.  There, you will stay there in a quarantine situation unless you volunteer and pass a negative Covid test. 

The odds here?  I would imagine most folks with a tendency to travel to exotic and risky areas....will just shake their heads and just do in-country trips for the next two years....or until they find the vaccine which works.

Pilot Training Story

 For several years, Lufthansa has operated a pilot-training program up in the Bremen area of Germany.  Presently, around 700 'students' are in the pipeline, who would eventually graduate and become full-up Lufthansa pilots.

Well....the news this morning says.....that Lufthansa came to the 700 students and basically said....your training is finished.  We won't continue the program....because of diminished travel requirements and an overage of pilots.

They aren't talking about for just 2020 or 2021....they are hinting in various ways that they won't be needing new pilots for a minimum of five years.

What happens to the 700?  Unknown.  In normal times, they'd float around to another airline....get into another program, and continue on....losing no class-time.  But presently....NO one needs new pilots.

I would be guessing that most of the 700 are sitting there in shock.  Some had this 'dream' existing for an entire decade.  Some had spent a thousand hours of class-time and flight-time to reach a near-stage on qualifications.  Now?  You'd go back home, sit there for a long while and contemplate the future. Going back to university?  Some might....others might walk into Job-Centers and try to find some decent occupation to wait out the five years.  

This is a major sign of the future for air-travel and how much planning is going on for a diminished travel sector.  

Germany and Covid-19: 30 Sep 2020

 1.  The German Federal Education Minister came out and said on the priority list....when the vaccinations are available....the teachers of Germany out to be number one.  

To be honest, no one from the federal level has made up a priority list yet, or they haven't admitted this in public.  

The police and firemen?  The doctors?  The nurses?

Even if production started tomorrow....I would make an educated guess that it'd take at least nine months before all 83-million residents of Germany were vaccinated.  And the question if this is a yearly vaccination has not be answered yet.

2.  Berlin City leadership has said that while walking around a office area...you MUST wear a mask.  However, once seated at your job....you can take the mask off.  

3.  Total infected in Germany since day one, 290,334. Total deaths: 9,483.

4.  Total infected in my town of Wiesbaden since day one, 1,064.  Total deaths: 22.

5.  Schlesweg-Holstein has said if you give a false name/false data to a hotel or inn, and you come up on the Covid-infection game.....then it's a 1,000 Euro fine upon you (the individual who gave the false data).  Another case where state rules were invented and unconnected to federal rules. 

6.  There's a Berlin club that offered up a dance-party (violating the social distancing rules), and the fine has been handed out to the owner....5,000 Euro.  

7.   It was brought up in the Hessen region that some guy applied for business aid for Covid-19, and it was a made-up company (fake).  Amount he applied for?  10,000 Euro.  He attempted on four applications, and the government halted the four applications.  Jail-time?  More than likely.  Pretty stupid....going to jail over a fraudulent application.  

Covid Study and Statistics

 The German 'Doctor-Doom' for Covid-19 (Christian Drosten) was asked a question on 'odds of dying', and he made the comment that "Corona deaths in sixty-year olds two-hundred times as likely as a fatal car accident."

But then in referencing this....he notes it's a US study....not a German study.

I paused over this.  

If you Google-up the data, there were a total of 3,059 traffic deaths in Germany.  If you did the simple math....that would mean around 600k deaths must have occurred in Germany.  Well....presently since day one, for all of Germany, we are at 9,843 deaths.  This means we are missing around 590k dead people so far.  

Also, this odd factor figures into this statistical 'crap'.....in my new Audi A5 or the 14-year old Audi TT....if I (age 61) were in an accident....it would be nearly impossible to kill me or any occupant of the car.  Both cars are made out of real steel, and have enough safety items put into them....to take on death opportunities and ensure I survive.

Maybe if you were in a cheaply built Dodge from the 1980s, or the new Fiat 500 type car....yeah, you've got great odds of dying in a fatal car accident.

It's a poorly designed study, and probably ought to be laughed about in the end.

The ID Card Chatter

 This Chancellor meeting today....over other Covid ban rules....picked up the idea of forcing an absolute identification of customers at cafes, bars and restaurants for the 'Covid-form'.  

This comes up because in the past two weeks....several outbreaks have occurred, and false ID on the forms has become apparent. 

So you can imagine these intellectual politicians standing there and discussing this....with the 50-Euro or more fine, for a false name, address, etc.

Then they hit this odd point, which I noticed a number of regular Germans were bringing up today.  By law, the only folks who can ask for an ID are the police, customs/border control, grocery clerks selling alcohol, or people serving alcohol.  If you walk into a ice-cream shop....selling no booze, the law doesn't allow a request for an ID.  The same would be true for a coffee shop or bakery.  

I should also point out.....your phone number and email address will not be on your German ID card.  So that presents an entire issue by itself.  

As much as the Berlin leadership want to make this 50-Euro fine and the showing of the ID mandatory....it's going to require a regular law change on who can ask for the ID and why.

But you browse around on social media.....a lot of people have openly said...if you demand the ID, they won't show it, and will just pass on.  Basically, they will go buy their beer at some local grocery or drink shop, and go sit on a park bench with their buddies....conversing there and avoiding the cafe or pub.

This fake ID business and the gut feeling that the politicians have to resolve this problem....is basically going to invent a way of handling the problem....by just avoiding bars and clubs.  

It's kinda amusing in some ways, but shows the fix-it mentality of the politicians. 

On Covid and Buses

If you rode around on German public buses in January of this year, and rode today....you'd obviously notice the 'gimmicks' arranged for the Covid-19 virus.  You'd also note....from city to city....region to region....state to state....that the gimmicks are all done in a slightly different manner to protect the driver from customer coughs.

ARD, public TV, Channel One, did a piece up on this episode.

Basically, the national TUV association folks (the inspection folks) have come up now to say that some of these 'inventions' are not really doing much to protect the drivers.

In some cases, because of the type of plexiglass used.....the driver can't even look to his right and see anything out of the doorway. In simple terms, it's unsafe.

So all of this analysis and criticism has led the TUV folks to write official guidance on protective barriers for public buses.  Release?  Well....not in October.  And to get the updates done?  It might be January before you see buses resolved on this Covid-matter.

More Bans to Come?

 According to Focus, there's supposed to be a meeting with the Chancellor today and more Corona bans are to be discussed. It doesn't mean it'll actually happen.....just a discussion stage.  And I should note....this is where they talk national bans.....rather than the state-by-state ban rules.

So one topic to be brought up....private parties.  What's is rumored is that parties will be limited 25 people max....if you reach such-and-such stage of infection.  The wording indicates....indoor situations.  Outdoors?  50 people. 

Hardest hit?  Wedding planners.  These events with 200 to 300 people?  Gone....if the ban is enforced. 

Second ban?  Well....there's been issues with people at bars/restaurants who are forced to provide names, addresses, and phone numbers.  So the discussion is....if fake names or non-existent addresses are provided.....a minimum fine of 50 Euro would occur.  

How would they prove this and track it to your apartment or your identity?  Unknown.  

Third ban?  There's going to be a discussion about a 'traffic-light' system, where uniform statistics and automatic bans click into place.  

Fourth ban?  Early hours shutdown on alcohol served is openly discussed.  No one is saying the time or the method here.  The basic idea is that you'd tell all clubs and bars....10 PM is the last point to serve drinks, and the operation is then shutdown.  Course, you could come up with a plastic cup.....get the drink and go stand out in the street with your 'gang'.

This idea won't settle well with young people and will simply trigger more drinking in parks and on the street corners.  Cops won't appreciate the extra work involved to enforce this. 

Public sentiment over more bans?  Well....generally, I'd say that 70-percent of the public is either neutral or accepting of the ban rules, or those being discussed.  Thirty percent of the public has run out of patience, and have no real enthusiasm for rules.  This also drags out the question....do any of these have relative facts that suggest controlling the virus?  You have the situation where even some doctors are questioning some of the actions, and that simply frustrates the public even more. 

Observation

 For decades, the East German government existed....mostly under an umbrella...where a limited number of advocates and promoters hyped up the positives of their 'Disneyland' type regime, while the vast majority of occupants were silent. 

Then one day....the decision-makers and pro-DDR folks kinda woke up to realize that no one really felt thrilled over the lifestyle, limits, rules, or standards. And in a matter of days and weeks, the DDR system collapsed. 

The silent people? They opened the front-door and got chatty. Problems got resolved. The old advocates and decision-makers from that period? They don't seem to say much now. They have become remarkably silent.

More on Continental

 On the Sunday AM news via ARD (public-TV, Channel One)....there was another political attempt to smear the German car-parts company Continental....who has said that operations are going to downsize. 

Over the past month, I've brought this Continental story up two or three times.  In the big picture....13k jobs with the company around Europe are at risk.  

While I agree...some of this is simply lessening sales (for car parts) during Covid-19....a fair amount of this discussion centers on what the German political system demanded....E-cars are basically the only 'new' car you can buy by 2030, with gas/diesel new car sales completely gone.

The car companies like Ford, Opel, VW, Mercedes, BMW....they know the trend, and have planned for it.  Basically, you make E-cars with 50-percent less parts than a gas/diesel car requires.

The idiot politicians themselves created this wave.

In this morning's piece....North Rhine-Westphalian Prime Minister/Premier President....Armin Laschet...made some big plea that this is not correct in what Continental is doing.  The government 'gave' them all this funding....they need to keep the jobs going.

So you just stand there laughing.....the general public is looking at the front-page chatter of this guy, and asking the question......isn't this downsizing exactly what you triggered by the E-car agenda?

You could have gone back four years ago when all this chatter started up at the Bundestag and sat in the Chancellor Merkel meetings.  None of them had a grasp of the E-car parts situation and that a whole massive industry existed for decades in Germany, and you won't require half of these people when the smoke clears in 2030.

It's the same way in the coal industry.  When you finally stop the coal production business....all of these people in the region affected will not have a job.  The government plan?  Pouring billions into this, and having a retraining plan, but really having no idea where this job will appear from.

I feel sorry for the car parts people....who'd came out out of school....got great training, and produced some of the finest car parts in the world.  They made wipers that went way past your expectations.  They produced car batteries that lasted way past your normal expectations (my Audi TT battery is now fourteen years old and appears to be capable for at least two more).  They had superior products, and customers knew it.

I expect more chatter like this from the politicians, but there's nothing much to be said or done....unless you want to revisit the mandate on killing the gas/diesel car industry.  

Tram Day?

 A couple of days from now, in the Wiesbaden area (my home district)....a vote comes up for the public.  It's out of cycle, and to be honest, if they get 40-percent of the public to show up and vote....it'll be a miracle.  

The vote?  It's something that the city council decided not to decide upon.  It would be a public thing. 

Around four years ago, with the new bridge going up on the west-end of Wiesbaden...over the Rhine....alongside the old bridge....some guy bumped one of the old bridge's columns, and triggered this catastrophic event (it became unstable....the old bridge). In a matter of minutes, they shut down the bridge and caused a mass 'pain-in-the-ass' for commuters who used that bridge daily.  There were only two other alternate bridges in the region, and they weren't truly capable of sustaining all the traffic from this episode.  

During this period, the chatter started up....why not build a 4th bridge.  For six months, this was tossed around. Funding was not an issue.  But the only viable solution was a bridge which would pass over an island.  This became a delicate topic because there's a German law....you can't build bridges over islands unless an awful lot of environmental pain is suffered.  Eventually, this idea of the 4th bridge was thrown out.

So the funding sat there....with this new idea tossed around.  Why not build a tram for Wiesbaden?  I know, it has nothing to do with a bridge, but why give up funding?

For the record, Wiesbaden has 293k residents, and the Mainz region has around 200k residents.  Mainz has had a tram (actually two routes) for over fifty years.  Wiesbaden has had the bus business since WW II....with a minor trolly-car operation that ran for several decades (at the end of the 1800s and into the 1930s).  

So the route was drawn, from Mainz-Kastel (far east end of town) to the Bahnhof area, onto the shopping district, and would extend up to Schlangenbad area (far west, out-of-town).  

Then the pro-bahn and anti-bahn folks settled upon upon the agenda.  The anti-bahn folks don't want the noise or the disruption to car-traffic.  An enormous amount of this route would be on the actual road itself, which would slow down traffic.  The pro-bahn people think that more residents would ride the tram and lessen traffic. 

This vote is to approve the construction, or to forbid the construction.  If they fail the vote?  No one says much, but I would imagine this whole bridge over the Rhine topic will come back up....or maybe a tunnel under the river instead.  

Finally, just this one odd factor.....Probably 90-percent of the folks voting....have no plus-up or benefit from the tram.  They live in an area where the tram will not touch, and they don't work near the tram line.  So just convincing that group to get up on a Sunday morning and vote....is a miracle by itself.  

Note: Wiesbaden is noted as the largest city in Germany, without a light-rail/tram line/trolly-car operation.  And I will personally attest to the fact that rush-hour traffic has made the interior of the city miserable and impossible over the past decade.  

Another Short-Work Story

 How far will Opel go with 'short-work' (the government standard where an employee might only be working 40 to 80 hours a month but paid for 160 man-hours.....at 80-to 86 percent of his normal pay)?  

HR came out this morning with a decent article over Opel's management talk.  They see short-work continuing at the company for most all of 2021.  It's another case, where the Covid-19 situation has decreased the market, and they just don't need to manufacture as many cars.

A Little History Story

 This is a little German history story, which you typically don't get from the German public TV folks or most historians.

Around mid-July 1870....a war started up between France and Prussia (remember, it was not yet unified).  The trigger?  This is mostly a 'belief' that Prussia was in a weakened state, and some type of military action could be done in a short manner....bringing some Prussian property into the hands of the French.

The war itself? It ended in six months (end of January 1871).  It was a fairly dismal 'mess' for the French.  The Prussians lost around 144k men, but the French lost almost a million.  Somewhere in this loss....723k French soldiers were captured and held. In terms of being 'held'...this particular act went on for most of 1871, 1872, and through 1873.  

The French prisoners?  They were brought into Germany and served on various construction/work projects. With them....because of the poor conditions of the camps....came smallpox.  

Across Germany, this became a major health issue.  Around April of 1874....the government went to an extreme measure....the Reich Vaccination Act.  

Basically, the Act said that when they came to your town or village with the vaccine....EVERYONE was required to take the vaccination, whether they agreed or not.

Use of force?  Absolutely, and the police were the ones given the duty of forcing you.  

So in this era of the upcoming Covid-19 vaccination....this 1874 Vaccination Act is still out there lingering as a discussion topic.  Some believe in the end....the Covid-19 vaccine will be mandated.  Some believe that the bulk of society will take the vaccination without any argument (I kinda lean this way and think 90-percent will agree).  Some believe that the vaccination will be a yearly or even two-a-year type situation.  And some question the benefit of any Covid-19 vaccination.  

This is simply the history element of this discussion.  

Airline Cutbacks

 HR (public TV in Hessen) reported this morning that 1,100 pilots from Lufthansa, will be cut by 2022.

Earlier speculation was that it'd be only 600.

The recovery schedule from Covid-19?  Nowhere near what was anticipated, and it's another sign of the long path back to a normal state of travel.

Aircraft cutbacks?  The chatter now is that 150 airplanes will be sold or retired over the next two years.  

Munich Historical Piece

 There are basically four facts to the bombing of the 1980 Oktoberfest in Munich:

1.  Approximately 1.4 kilograms of explosives were used.

2.  This occurred near the main walk-in point of the fest.

3.  Twelve folks died, with around 200 others wounded.

4. Gundolf Koehler was among the 12 dead, and was ID'ed as the culprit.....primarily because of his far-right-wing activities.  Koehler was also identified as a ex-NPD member (the modern-day Nazi group).  

ARD posted a historical piece today over the bombing, and the mystery that still exists.

So you start off with the fact that no one believes that Koehler was the sole participant in the bombing.  The Bavarian security folks?  They wanted a quick ending to the investigation, because of a upcoming election.

The hand that is left over?  Well, there were various body parts on the grounds, and they were assembled and taken for investigation.  By the conclusion....all the body parts could be identified to the correct bodies...except for one hand.  

I know....it's a bit odd.  All the dead counted up....two hands each.  All the wounded....two hands each.  This one hand....left over.

A couple of years ago, I watched a documentary piece done by public TV in Germany, and they interviewed a nurse.  She'd witnessed this guy walk into a hospital (outside of Munich) with a wrapped-up arm.....obviously missing a hand.  Hospital took the guy in quickly.....tended to the situation.  Because the police were so focused on the situation in Munich.....no one said much.  Two or three days later...the guy simply self-checked-out of the hospital....no questions asked, and left.

Some folks have picked up on this story, and figure this second guy is part of the bombing effort.  No name....no car....no way to guess who it is....just that he is missing a hand.  

The hand back in the custody of the police? After a brief period of holding it....they disposed of it.  In today's world, you'd run the DNA test and let it lead you to someone.   

The idea of just letting the thing drop?  Well....you had the one guy (dead I admit) as the chief person to blame, and everyone wanting to avoid saying that right-wing fanatics were potentially a threat once again in Germany.  

So the historical piece lays there.  You can't really conclude it.....you can't solve it....you just stand and view it from a distance. 

Covid-19 Story

 A few days ago, I essayed a piece over a big Covid-19 outbreak in NW Germany, in the town of Hamm (roughly 190k residents).  The basic story here....a couple was getting married....they had a bachelor/bachelorette party, and then some big catered event with 300-odd guests.  A couple of days passed....some ill health started up and it tracked to the wedding business.

So, an update via Focus today came up.

This entire event was a Turkish wedding....something left out of the original story.

Cooperative folks in terms of providing a guest list?  Well....no.  Every step along the way, they've been uncooperative....for the bachelor/bachelorette party business, and the wedding party itself.

The organizer of this for the family?  He is potentially up for a hefty fine (by law, they could go to 25k Euro).

What the local government says is that 2500 people are now in some type of quarantine because their relationship to the parties and guests.

The other side of this story, which is a bit amazing....some of the guests actually attended multiple weddings in the week.  So they could have been infected at party number one, passed it onto several folks there....then gone to party number two, and even party number three.

There's in the range of 300 people who attended multiple events.

All of this is bringing heartburn up for locals who have to deal with schools in chaos, childcare operations possibly shutdown, and people on the edge because of the ban rules.  

EU Asylum Plan Openly Discussed

 I discussed this EU draft plan on resolving the immigrant/refugee problem in Europe a couple of days ago.  

There's a particular piece to the plan which has been tossed around in public, and gotten some chatter.  I even sat and pondered upon this one key part of the plan.

The intention of the draft (involving several components) is that they want all members of the EU to vote and approve the EU policy on refugees.  

Somewhere in the text....there would be a formula of some type which relates to a yearly sum of refugees which you should 'take in'.  Now, when one says 'take in'.....it means that you'd grant them entry into your country before you handed them the asylum paperwork.  

I know....it's a comical way of handling such a program.  You might have the plane land there, put 250 folks onboard....all hyped and peppy to finally leave the hell-hole migration camp they were in, and arrive in x-country.....to be told five days later, by the way.....you need to file for asylum, and you might not be accepted.

I pondered upon this gimmick.  Would the 250 number be going to your magic EU determined yearly number?  Or would it be the 188 of the 250 who were finally accepted, and the 62 denied approval for asylum just NOT count?  No one says much over this operational method of conducting the process.

You have to read through their plan three to four times....to realize that you are just plain taking people out of the camp, without conducting any interviews or checking passport information.

If you approached most educated people....they'd tell you that this isn't a smart way of conducting business.  But I'm not finished on the details yet.

After this path of operation is laid out....then the EU folks say that they know that some countries simply won't play along with the whole game, and refuse their allotment of refugees.  Yes, they even admit this in the details. 

So the EU want the non-accepted country group to function within this operation....by helping to remove the failed asylum folks from the countries that admitted them.  NDR (northwestern Germany public TV) covered this part of the deal.

These countries....like Poland....would then participate and help remove/export the failed asylum folks.

You can imagine public TV in the middle of a deportation situation....say in Bavaria, and here are twenty-two Polish police, who are there to forcibly remove four Afghan guys and put them on a Polish transport aircraft.  It would look very negative and embarrassing for the Polish guys....on German soil and roughing up those 'poor' Afghan guys.

You'd create a false narrative for TV news and blackeye the Polish guys for being the 'bad-boys' on asylum (even though the Germans themselves failed the Afghan guys on their application).

So I'll go ahead and predict.....at least three....maybe six of the EU members....won't agree to this new EU draft.

It's a comical way to arrange some major plan, and pretend that foreigners will be on your soil....to remove failed applicants for asylum....because you yourself....don't have the courage to carry out the duty, and want someone else to get the blackeye.  

The simpler approach to this....why not just have the formal paperwork review before anyone gets on the plane to fly into EU airspace, and tell the folks.....these folks pass, and these folks fail.  It's a easy method to put together and avoid all this hassle that people seem to desire.  Or am I missing something out of the landscape?

G-20 Riot Business Back in the News

 It's been roughly 2.5 years since the Hamburg G-20 Conference 'riots'.  Today, if you view ARD (public TV, Channel One) news....it's a odd development that has come up over the riots.

Based on a Federal Prosecutor effort, a 'faction' of Berlin left-wing enthusiasts are now noted as the ones who engineered and designed the riots in Hamburg.

Four guys and a gal.

A criminal association?  Yes.

This plan apparently started in 2016, and centered on “targeted, supra-regionally coordinated preparatory acts.” 

Apparently two weeks ago, the police raided a couple of places in Berlin, and in Athens, Greece.

Part of this story goes back to two weeks prior to the Summit, and the police stopping a van which had curious items in the back of it....one of these being a private radio jammer.  The two gentlemen with the van?  They were part of the Berlin crowd.

Where this will lead to?  Well...there appears to be a fair amount of evidence, along with cellphones and computers taken in the raid.  One would make the educated guess that by early spring 2021....a fair amount of evidence will exist for a case against the five.  But the question is....will the prosecutors out of Hamburg or the Federal level in Berlin attempt such a case?  

I will suggest that the five quietly disappear by the end of 2020, and even if some enthusiasm for a court case exists.....they won't be able to find the five.  

The bigger question?  It didn't really take a lot of funding to carry out this G-20 riot act.  But was there a funding partner to this?  

Germans on Short-Time Work?

 How many Germans are getting government funding for short-time work?  Short-time? This is the program where you, the commercial company/business, admit that you aren't generating enough business for one-hundred employees, and put a group of them on maybe forty to eighty hours a month, instead of 160 man-hours, and they get paid 80 to 86 percent of their normal check at the end of the month. The extra money all comes from the government itself.

This came up today via ARD (public TV). 

The number presently is five-million.  Back at the peak period of April....it was at six-million.

Up until August, the amount of funding paid out?  It went just over 8-billlion Euro.  For the remainder of the year....if it holds at 5-million Germans on short-work, you can add another five-billion Euro onto account.

Going into 2021?  If this were to hold to around 5-million Germans, I might go and figure 10-billion Euro. Presently, the end-date is March of 2022.  So if I were adding up the revenue required....it'd be near 26-billion Euro paid to keep the program running. 

E-Car Story

 Back around four years ago, the Bundestag got around to passing a law...saying that all new car sales....involving gas or diesel cars....would conclude by 2030.  You could not sell a new gas/diesel car at that point, within Germany.

At the time, there were three things that you noticed.  On the priority scale with most working-class Germans...this didn't even register as a top-500 problem.  So they were fairly shocked how quick this went through the discussion stage and then got passed.

Second, the intent here, was to drive the public toward E-cars....whether they desired it or not.  At that point (2016), I would suggest that fewer than 5-percent of the German public felt compelled or excited about the E-car business.  A lot of this had to do with the distance you could travel with the E-car, the charging time for cars, and the general cost (above 40k Euro) for each car.  I should add that electrical cost probably figured into a quarter of the discussion as well (Germany has one of the highest rates for electricity of any EU country).

Third, various professors came out at the time and said in straight-forward way....you need around 50-percent less parts in an E-car, than in a gas/diesel car.  Germany has a large segment of the work-force who build car-parts.  So logically....they put it on the table.....probably half the work-force who build solely car-parts will not be necessary.

Well....last week, the car-parts 'giant' in Germany....Continental....said that it's going to a shutdown phase. It won't be sudden but they already see the light at the end of the tunnel on the necessarily of their parts business.

Yesterday, Continental employees held a strike/demonstration.....mostly around Frankfurt, and the 'Wall-Street' area of town....blaming commerce for their jobs that will be going away.

In the midst of this....various politicians came out and said they'd talk to Continental and try to talk 'sense' into them.

I just started laughing. 

These are the same politicians who in 2016 voted for the E-car law and started the end for car-parts manufacturing in Germany.  The workers on the demonstration.....they still haven't grasped this.  

Solidarity promised by the CDU and SPD parties for the workers?  It's a joke.  They invented the law, and knew precisely what would occur.  

Will people follow this path to the E-car, even if forced?  I have my doubts.  I suspect that various Germans will find angles to buy new gas/diesel cars in Czech or Italy, and just import them into Germany....paying some outrageous 2k Euro fee (if required)....and continue to use gas/diesel cars.  

As for the folks complaining over the loss of their jobs?  I doubt if they ever realized the full impact in 2016, and their lives are forever changed because of the law.  

Butcher Story

 Police raids yesterday took place at 60 different homes/businesses across Germany, over the topic of illegals in the country....working in the butcher/meat processing business.

ARD (public TV, Channel One) told most of this story and it's worth a review.

800 police were involved in this, and it appears to have been planned out for at least a month.

Number of illegals at the heart of this matter?  82.

It does appear to be a 'gang-effort', and various non-EU folks were smuggled into the country....to do butcher work.  Some were even identified as 'students on a work-holiday' on their paperwork.

What this is all leading to?  The meat processing industry in Germany is under heavy pressure to deliver their products for X-amount on pricing, and with the standard set for normal German workers....they can't make what they consider a reasonable profit.  If you were to process the meat at a non-German site (say in Romania) and just truck it into Germany....most grocery operations wouldn't touch the product or sell it.

Bottom line?  The business model that has been around for several decades....has reached a end-point.  Basically, at some point over the next year....you are going to see a 20-to-30 percent mark-up (my best guess) on all meat products you buy at the German grocery.

My Local Region and Covid-19

 I live in a highly urbanized area (293k residents).  Since day one of the Covid business.....we've now reached a total of 1,016 infected folks....with only 33 active at this point.  

Total deaths?  Still at 22.....mostly (around 19 of them) over the age of 70.

Deaths at a standstill?  Thats a curious thing....for almost two months now....while infections continue, the death count remains at 22.  Better use of drugs and therapy?  Maybe, but you can't say for sure.  

The use of the 'warning' App on Smartphones?  It might be helping to some degree.  I looked at the numbers....almost 100 days since the release of the App.  18-million downloads across all of Germany.  

Oddly enough, it's been turned off or deleted on 3-million phones, so there's only 15-million phones that run the App presently.  

A week ago, some consultants advised the government that the App can't be deemed a success because it's simply not on enough phones to make a success.  The government didn't make it a mandatory thing, and is simply relying upon 'word of mouth' to encourage folks to participate and make this work.

Differing numbers across the nation?  No doubt.  Bavaria, NRW and Baden-Wurttemberg still lead the nation on infections and deaths. 

Covid and Frustration

 There's a big long piece over at Focus this morning, which I would strongly recommend a read.  I'll tell the basic story and how it relates to Germans, with their frustration level maxing out.

About 20 minutes driving NW out of Dortmund (way up in the NW of Germany)...is the town of Hamm (180k residents).

Three weeks ago....a couple went and had a wedding ceremony....with all the extras (including a catered out party afterwards).  309 total guests at the party.  Social distancing and ban rules?  Thrown out entirely....it appears.  High number of participants with Covid-19 now.

The mayor?  Blasting away at the people who organized and ran the ceremony/wedding party.  He's presently talking about some type of fine business upon those who ran the event.

As you dig into the piece....the whole mess started at the bachelorette party, with abandonment of the ban rules.

Because of the increased number of infected, the city is pushing for extreme measures on all 180-odd thousand residents.  

Mismanagement of the event and the fine?  Well....whoever is the figure at the top of this mess...could end up with a fine of 25k Euro, and possibly even jail-time (five years).  As for each individual?  If they can establish (maybe via video of the event)....the 1.5 meter social distance rule was thrown out....then it's a 200 Euro fine for each person on that situation.

Just on legal costs for the wedding couple and their parents, you have to figure at least 10k Euro to be spent now defending themselves and trying to avoid the hefty fine (25k Euro).  Each single guest being dragged up to some judge to tell their part of the story?  This could easily turn into some fiasco....that you'd never want to attend another wedding in your life.  

Teacher Survey

 I was looking over SWR news this morning (coming out of SW Germany and public TV there)....and this curious item came up over teachers.

The Forsa Institute went and did a survey of school teachers across Germany (1,300 of them).  

The end-result?  A lot more violence than you'd typically expect.  Almost half of the administrators had reported either violence, threats, or abuse...over the past five years.  Almost a quarter of those responded and said that they'd experienced some type of physical attack.

The key to all of this?  Loss of respect for adults in the school system.  It's basically the same story that you see in the US at present.

The 'Schwarze Null' (Black Zero) Story

 It's an odd term....schwarze null or in English....black zero.  For Germans, it's absolute thing when talking about economics, balanced budgets, and the need for a balanced budget.  You never borrow.....to reach a balanced situation.  

Around a decade ago, this became a part of the German culture, with the old Finance Minister....Schaeuble....responsible for creating this concept.

So the path dissolving?  More or less, as Focus told the story in the AM today.

The blame?  On Covid-19 and declining tax revenue.

The chief worry?  Right now, the experts say that the return to 'normal' is something that will occur around 2023.  The repair to the black zero situation?  I'd add one to two years to pay off the loans...suggesting 2025 as the real normal year period to occur.

Worrying the public?  I might speculate and say that 90-percent don't really care.  They assume that the government knows what it's doing.

Police Story

 N-TV (commercial news in Germany) had a curious story laid out today over the Munich police.

So to the basic facts:

1.  170 police were sent to 30 apartments/seven offices around the Munich area (to include Ebersberg, Furstenfeldbruck, Dachau and Augsburg).

2.  The raid?  Geared toward state or city police using cocaine.

3.  Six under suspension and twenty-one others being looked upon.

Where this raid leads to?  Probably more police to be under investigation. 

Curiously, 1.6-million chat messages are being examined currently....which might take the investigators months to piece these together and establish the consumer group.

Where this will lead onto?  It wouldn't shock me if the Bavarian authorities went to some kind of drug-testing scheme, and you suddenly see ten-percent of the police force leaving.  

When the Censorship Path Turns Slippery

"Censorship is the protection against "false truths."

-- Frank Ulrich Montgomery (appearing on Sunday night's Anne Will forum show, on ARD).

This was a long discussion (Sunday evening) on the Anne Will public forum show (public TV, ARD), to debate the Covid-19 business, the anti-Covid ban rule folks, allegations of false facts and propaganda, and handling the general public.

I won't say that we have a crisis in Germany over censorship.....at least not yet.  But various Germans have put the public networks (ARD, ZDF, etc) on this mute-status (going back over decades for various issues).  

There is a general perception by politicians and journalists that the public is headed down a path that is dangerous, and that only via censorship....can the public be protected.  

The problem I see with this....who will be the person who is the 'fact-checker' and determining 'false truths', and when they fail....what exactly is the best way to correct the system?  Censoring the censors?

Five-Star Hotel Shutting Down

 About ten minutes walking NW of the Frankfurt train station....is one of the few five-star hotels of Frankfurt, the Grand Hotel Hessischer Hof.  

It's selling power?  Well...it faced the Messe area, where the trade fairs would occur on a regular basis.  Built in the early 1950s, it had around 120 rooms, and often the focus of business-talks around the city.  In the high-season, rooms easily went for 400 Euro an evening.

Well...the Covid-19 business and collapse of the the travel business....has triggered the announcement of the impending closure of the hotel. HR reported this today. 

A big deal?  It's simply a sign of the economic trend underway.  My humble guess is that it'll be packaged up and sold off by early 2021....to a company which will rename it, and try to use it as a four-star location, and go for half the rate that is charged presently.

The odds of the Messe shows bringing back business?  Well....no, that's not going to happen.  With the car-show permanently gone (to Munich), the city pretty much destroyed the show-business angle to the Messe.  The book show is about the only major show left for the city.   

EU Draft Repair for Refugees

 Focus published a piece this morning, chatting over the EU draft reforms to resolve/fix asylum/immigration within the EU.  The basic look?

1.  Any country within the EU can continue to refuse asylum/refugee cases....but you the enter into a partnership to help 'other' countries get rid of rejected asylum cases.  

This will beg a lot of questions.  You can figure a minimum of three countries on this list.  How you would help in the export of asylum folks?  Basically unknown.

2.  Some individual is going to be selected within the EU to be a asylum coordinator for returning people to their rightful county.....if they fail the asylum process.

It would seem that he'd give the orders, and take the edge off individual countries making the decision.  EU orders, would out-rank individual country orders.  If he said you can't export the guy after a failed asylum case?  No one says much about that scenario.

3.  The Dublin Agreement stands.  It basically said that wherever you land (first country)....in that country you must apply for asylum and not wander around the EU asking for a better deal country.  

Great for Germany?  Yes, but so far, this situation has not been respected and no one says how it will be improved.

4.  Finally, if any crisis occurred (they didn't really define this well, but you'd assume war-time business would qualify)....there will be a quota established for refugees to be taken into various countries of the EU.

What type of quota?  They didn't say.  If you disagreed with the number to your country?  No talk over this potential problem.  

Would a mass entry point be established with no review of the person's background?  No one said anything over that issue. 

Odds of this draft passing via the EU?  I'd give it less than a 10-percent chance.  You need all members to agree, and it's got several questionable pieces to it.

Fehmarnbelt Project

 Up at the north end of Germany, there's been this plan planning on the table to build a tunnel under the North Sea area...17.6 km long.  You'd drive over a German bridge on the north end....to reach the German isle of Fehmarn.  Then you'd pay a toll, and enter the tunnel....to reach the Danish area of Lolland.  

Environmentalists figured that they'd be able to stop the tunnel.....keeping the ferry business going.  Well....today, via NDR, the court opened up to discuss the legality of the whole project (valued at more than a billion dollars).  

The plan actually started around 25 years ago, and started to become a reality in the past decade.

End-point?  Well....if nothing happens to stall this....they say 2029 will be the end-point.  So a 50-odd minute trip by Ferry ends, and the new journey then?  Around 7 to 10 minutes.  

A Lost Story

 In the US, you see almost on a weekly basis....someone going off on a hike in Colorado, California, or some western mountainous region.....then disappearing from sight.  In Germany, it's just awful rare that someone disappears in the German woods.  Well...this week, a missing report came up (via N-TV this morning).

The facts

German gal (26 years old) in fit condition and had hiked on her own a good bit before.

She leaves for a 120 kilometer route, going from Stühlingen....over to Wehr (Waldshut region).  The starting point is about 50 km NE of Basel, Switzerland (on the German side)....in a fair mountainous region. 

So you gaze over the territory, the route, and you come to this conclusion....even if you were lost, you'd just head north or south at any point in the trip and within two hours, you'd hit a road.  

The police are still out and looking for her....feeling positive that she'll turn up.  This is now 2 weeks since she left.  

Cellphone?  In her possession and she had been 'chatting' with the family for the first couple of days....then nothing.

The odds here?  She probably walk out on some trail, stumbled and feel into some area with zero cellphone reception. 

Bears?  Generally, Germans will say with absolute determination that they've exterminated virtually every single bear that has entered Germany (don't bring up the Bruno episode of 2006).

Because of so much 'civilization' existing in Germany today....it's nearly impossible to get lost.  But in this case, there are dozens of optional trails that go from the last contact point, to the final destination.  You could stage a thousand folks there, and unless she was absolutely precise on the planned trail business.....you'd just be walking for weeks in search of her. 

More Mask Rules Coming?

 There is a discussion underway in Munich, being led by the Bavarian Prime Minister (Söder).

Various networks or publications around Bavaria this morning are talking over this idea.

He suggests that a mask requirement (for Covid-19), because of increasing numbers, should be implemented for public places....where the social distancing rules can't be seen/enforced.

Where exactly is he talking about?  Unknown.....he just threw this out there and folks are kinda asking where the rule would be enforce (city parks, city sidewalks, on a bench by your house, etc).

In general, across the nation, you have to wear a mask if inside of a building (shopping, railway stations, library, etc). On buses and trains?  Mandatory.

Hyping up people another notch?  Over the past month, I've walked around a couple of German towns, and it's obvious that people aren't wearing masks much while walking down the street, or sitting on a park bench, or while walking through a outdoor shopping district.  

Would they cooperate if you went to the next level?   I have my doubts that people would be supportive of this.  It's marginal enough, that people do this for bus and rail travel.....asking them to wear a mask while sitting park-bench probably won't sell.  

Covid-Signs

 Last week, I spent a day in Hanau.  Its one of those towns that I advocate everyone take a whole day and walk around.

It'd been three years since I made a walk through the city, and one of the chief things I noticed.....a whole bunch of 'Corona-signs'.

It didn't matter where you went....over a five-minute pace, you'd usually find a sign on the side of the street.  

Basically, all said the same basic direction....bear in mind social distancing, and take Covid-19 serious.  

Just my humble guess, but the city probably put a minimum of 1,000 of these stupid signs around town.

Cost factor?  I would be guessing at least 25 Euro per sign, and probably a crew of three guys probably an entire day to place these. 

Life span?  No telling....they might still be there in four years.  There might be some kids who've already swiped these and have them on their bedroom walls.  The fact that none of the 'people' have mouths or faces, nor wear masks?  Best not to bring up that strange factor.

Racism Study?

 The Minister of Interior for Germany (Seehofer, CDU)....has said on various occasions over the past month or two....he will not seek a 'study' of racism over German police.  

If you view public news (ARD or ZDF), there's been various calls by the politicians....that a complete study of racism with the police is necessary.  

In the last day or two....it's curious what Seehofer did agree to.  He says the Interior Ministry will mount a study over racism now....however, it'll concern ALL Germans.

Where this is going to go?  Well....there are probably a dozen levels of racism, and by opening up this study....you might just find that more than 95-percent of Germans practice some element of racism.  

You probably will discover that Turk-Germans are a bit racist in nature over Kurdish-Germans.  You might find that Greek-Germans are a bit racist over Turkish-Germans. You might find that Russian-Germans dislike African-Germans.  You might find that German-Germans (who've been around for 30-odd generations) have racist thoughts over German-German journalists.  

Opening up a Pandora's Box?  Oh my, yes.

Basically, it'll challenge the anti-police narrative, and start to focus politicians on various people around the country.  I doubt if there's a single corner of the country that you will be able to call racist-free.  

Castle Starkenburg

 The castle ruins at Starkenburg (Heppenheim), I would put on the 'if you were passing through' list.  

First, the location is Heppenheim (20 min south of Darmstadt).  Once you enter the city, it's about a 15-minute drive UP the mountain side on a marginally 'nice' road (mostly brick), at a very low rate of speed. Don't make the trip in the winter.

Second, once you reach the top of the hill, there is the parking lot.  From there, figure about 20 minute walk.  If you have knee or hip issues....cross the castle ruins off your list.

Third, there is a decent restaurant and pub at the top, and I'd highly advise you to sit for a while....chill out, and at least consume a beer.  

Fourth, the ruins?  They don't allow you into the interior of the castle....lot of renovation work underway (summer 2020 period).  You can walk the grounds and get an idea of the character of the castle.  Beyond that....nothing much else.

If you live within an hour of Heppenheim, it's definitely a good 3-to-4 hour drive/walk.  Beyond that, no....I wouldn't put it on the must-do list. 

Burg Eltz

Burg Eltz is about a 70 minute drive NW of Mainz.  I'd strongly recommend a tour of the castle.  Some advice: 

1.  It's not that easy to find, so use a GPS to guide you.

2.  You park at the top of the hill (paying 2 Euro).  You can walk to the bottom (2 km walk) or ride the bus (another 2-Euro per person).  

3.  If you have knee or hip trouble, this is NOT the tour for you.  Also, forget the baby-buggy routine.  

4.  Don't go on an exceptionally hot day.  Bring a bottle of water along on just awn average day.

5.  11-Euro per person entry fee.  Kids, less.

6.  I'd advise about 3.5 hours for the whole thing.  They have two places to eat within the castle, and liquid refreshment is possible.

7.  Lot of history in the tour (done in English or German).  This part is exceptionally good.

8.  There is a second parking lot (maybe 3 km out away from the castle.....free, but you'd have to walk in.  

9.  Advise to do the deal on Mon-Fri....weekends are hectic and you might be waiting for an hour just to enter.  Covid-19 rules are in effect. 

10.  Strongly recommend taking the mini-bus ride back to the top at the end (2-Euro each person, each way).

11.  Finally, for dinner at conclusion of the day, recommend the Alte Remise Boulodrome, about 10 minutes north of the castle.  Great Med food menu, and strongly noted by the locals for quality food.  Make a reservation for Saturdays.  

Note: This is way out in the middle of nowhere, and easily out of connectivity range on some occasions.  Also for kids, it's one of the few things I'd recommend for 8 to 10 year old kids because it gives you the whole presentation of castle life and the landscape.  

Weapons

I sat in a German Zollamt shop about three months ago, and this hung on the wall.

It's a list of items which are deemed by the Zollamt as weapons and you can get into trouble with the police about these items.

The baseball bat?  Yes.  the multi-tool knife?  Yes. 

The curious thing...in the 1990s, you never had a info-graphic like this around.

I'm surprised that hockey sticks didn't make the chart.
 

Overdosing on Morality

 "Many of our neighbors tell me: Why should we take part when the Germans keep appearing as moral champions and putting us under pressure."

-- Interior Minister Horst Seehofer

A great piece on the German asylum issue came up in Focus this morning, and it's worth the read.

Over the past couple of weeks, with the refugee camp fire on the isle of Lesbos, Greece....things have been in a chaotic mess.  The EU can't do much except throw more money at building a new camp, and openly admitting it can't reach a policy situation.

German society?  If you watch public forum shows on public TV (ZDF and ARD)....it's probably around ten hours per week, discussing the migration business, the poor condition of the Greek camps, no EU policy on refugees ever coming up, and debate folks trying to suggest morality should always win in each debate.

Who watches the public forum debate shows?  That's an entirely different topic.  There's no doubt that university students, intellectuals, politicians and journalists watch.  Out of 83-million....I might go out and suggest that fewer than fewer than 5-million Germans watch a minimum of one-hour per week.

This debate by some over unlimited entry?  It's geared to be a morale question and answer.  If you ask stupid questions....about the harsh reality of affordable housing in Frankfurt, Erfurt, or Berlin....that bringing in half-a-million 'new' residents each year just makes this more of a miserable mess, you would get pushed back.

If you asked where the jobs will be....particularly in east German cities, you would get pushed back.

If you asked why the EU can't come to a conclusion on some national policy, or why Germany by itself can't have a national policy, you would get pushed back.

It's an interesting 'path' that is being pursued....all hinged on morality, and the necessity of convincing people that they need to copy your act.  

Oktoberfest Would Have Been Today

 Oktoberfest would have started today in Munich.  Most everyone in the city knows the whole deal, the threat of Covid-19, and shares the frustration over the cancellation.  

Tons of money lost?  Absolutely.

Threat to the economy?  Absolutely.

Locals skipping the ban rules and having their 'hidden' version of Oktoberfest?  Absolutely.

Christmas Market Approved

 Various cities throughout Germany are on the edge about the traditional yearly Christmas market, and the belief that most will not occur.

Yesterday, the Wiesbaden city council sat down and had the vote over the 'plan'.  They agreed to have the Christmas market, but it would be under Covid-19 rules, and run different.

It's scheduled now for 24 November to open.

In the past, it was all designed for the open cobblestone area near the shopping district and state-house.  Well....that old design has been thrown out.  What is now said is that the food/drink operations will be split between the two ends of the shopping district, with more open space in the mix.  

The look of this whole operation?  No one has any design, and I would expect this to only be put out in early November as the stands are starting to get put in place.  

Covid and The Economy

 There is a great editorial piece on Focus today, with the title: 'Germany Is Threatened with Corona Sclerosis'. I strongly recommend a read of it....written by Clemens Fuerst.

The piece dwells on this fact that Corona isn't exactly going away, and will be facing the German business sector for several years.  Some will survive....some won't.

On short-work (the program to provide German state funding for people who aren't working 160 man-hours a month at this point, but enables them to get around 80-percent of their normal pay-check)....it was passed through this week, and made concrete for up to two years (March 2022 is now the end-point).  

Will short-work be screwed with again and given another whole extra year by the end of 2021 (after the national election) because the economy has not recovered?  I'd give it better than a 50-percent chance of occurring.  It's very likely that a quarter of the population will still be doing part-time work even in the summer of 2022.  

Can the government bundle up that much money and carry the nation through 2022 and maybe even 2023....waiting for normalcy to return?  With no doubt, Germany can do it.....but it'll require bank loans somewhere down the path, or massive restructuring of the economy (more taxes on the wealthy).  

What's curious to me is all the various angles that are now affected.  If you had five-million Euro, a 5-star script and a couple of big-name German actors ready for a movie production.....can you assume that the theaters will open to such a degree....that you'd get a return back on your investment?  Current answer?  No.

If you had 100k Euro and a passion to go and open up your own sports bar in Essen....would you go and do this in the current landscape, with limits on patrons and customers?  No.

If you had two-million Euro and a chance to buy a highly under-valued hotel 3-star hotel in Hamburg, with occupancy currently at 20-percent in the Covid-era....would you do it?  No.

The passion for risk?  It's simply not there.

There are various empty 'fronts' around Germany which would make great pubs or cafes....but would you go and use your life-savings in this time, to take on a risky venture?  Probably not.  

To be blunt, I don't see anything changing much in the next twelve months to reverse this whole trend.  

What was the FDJ in the 'Old Days'?

 Back as East Germany and West Germany existed.....this was a youth movement in the East Germany (DDR) region.  The German wording?  Freie Deutsche Jugend.

You'd probably describe in today's chatter as the 'young Democrats' or the 'young Republicans'.....but in the sense that they were fairly communist in nature.

Age levels?  You could join around age 14, and by age 25....you were 'graduated' out of the system.

At the peak (late 1980s), how many were in the organization?  Generally, it's discussed at 70-odd percent of those in the age group.  It wasn't mandatory....but there were a couple of benefits in the mix....to interest a person.

Did you just leave one organization for another?  Well...this is brought up....that the Thalmann Pioneers were the original group you'd join (ages 6 to 14).  

The benefit mix?  The state apparatus of DDR had rock concerts arranged for the FDJ, along with disco parties and festivals for young people.  You didn't get entry, unless you were in the 'club'.

The end spiral of the 'club'?  Well....once the Wall came down, the days were numbered for the FDJ in terms of influence.  Most folks say that they drifted down to around 150-odd members, and in some fashion....exist today as a anti-establishment vehicle.  They hype the old DDR ways....the Marxist chatter....and anti-capitalism. 

The Schanzenviertel 'Mystery-Group'

 So I'll tell this story in this manner.

If you go out in Germany now....in the Covid-19 era, and want a drink with several buddies.....you will cooperate with the local bar, and fill out this form as you sit at the table (either in the bar, or in the beer-garden).  

The form will ask for your name, your friend's name, a e-mail, and street address.  The waiter will come and mark down the day and time of your drinking session.  In the event....a week down the line that the wait, or other guests around that time test 'positive' for Covid-19....the authorities come to pull out all the private data and force you into a testing situation.

Germans grumble about this, and hate the private data going out....but it's the only way that cities signed off on pubs, bars and restaurants re-opening.

So NDR (regional public TV in NW Germany) put up this story about this one particular bar (the Katzen Bar, translating over to the Cat Bar), up in the Schanzenviertel of Hamburg.  

A couple of the employees came up with Covid-19.  So the authorities came in and asked for the guest sheets, and tried to assemble a day or two of names.  600 guests total.

Well...some (around 200) are just plain incorrect on details or names.  In some cases....'fantasy' name/details were left on the paper.  It's reached the point where they've gone to public services and asked people to volunteer to admit they were customers....on those days.

This is the problem with this entire game of IDing yourself, with the bar assuming you will be honest, and people likely tiring of the private data game, and just giving fake names.

The odds of some state or city requiring your passport or ID to sit and drink, and the waiter filling out the paperwork?  It would just make the current paperwork situation even worse.  But as Covid-19 progresses, I would imagine this idea will be tossed around and openly discussed by politicians.  

The WELT Question: Don't They (Germany) Have Problems of Their Own?

 There's an opinion article which came up today....via the publication WELT, and it centers on the other members of the EU (neighbors of Germany) and why they aren't that hyped up or eager to take on more refugees from the Moria crisis on the isle of Lesbos, Greece.

It's a legit article, and puts the question.....is Germany going to accept more refugees out of the situation, while everyone else stands there quietly and does nothing?

So, let me offer three simple observations here.

1.  The neighbors of Germany don't have to take any action because the vast majority of refugees assembled at Moria....have the destination written down....Germany, period.  They aren't accepting of any deal to send them to Croatia, Portugal, Poland or Hungary.  

The neighbors know this.  They can remain quiet and just grin because Germany hasn't grasped this fact since 2013.  You basically have three countries that get on the refugee list: Germany, Sweden, and the UK.  

You can laugh about this notion of Germany or nothing, but that's part of the big story here.

2.  If you were a neighbor of Germany, and already have six-plus percent (even before Covid-19), why would you go and add 2k or 8k refugees to your country?  

It's a serious question, and no one ever sits there to think over this.  Just by taking in 3k refugees, you have to go and figure two entire years of language training and job qualification classes....to get the person to some basic level of survival and working.  The idea of keeping half the 3k on some form of welfare for three years....maybe five years?  For most countries, that's unacceptable.

3.  Finally, there is this thing that countries would like to know who it is....coming in, and ask a dozen questions before resettling them into their country.  If this guy spent a year or two in prison....why?  If the guy claims he's 14 years old, but there's no proof of the age....why accept that?  If the guy has been a trouble-maker in the refugee camp for a full-year....why resettle him to be a trouble-maker in their country?

The EU reaction to this question business....you can't do that, and hinder the process of resettlement.  If they hand 3k refugees, and sixty of them are full-time trouble-makers....how many thousands of man-hours will you donate via the police or legal system....to force them back to their country?  The sad thing....the sixty bad-boys end up making the entire group look bad. 

I don't have a problem in admitting there are two mindsets here....the typical intellectual mindset, and the 'other'.  Neither can resolve the mess, and there can be no real end-point.  

A Mask Story

 Last night, via Plus-Minus (docu-news program on German public TV, ARD), they ran this 10-minute story, which is kinda interesting.

Back in March of this year (2020), the German Health Ministry said that a crisis was starting up with Covid-19 and Germany DID NOT have an adequate amount of masks for people.  They wanted this responsibility to be a federal government thing.

So the Health Ministry opened up what they call a 'open-house' procedure.  It meant....they gave out contracts to 738 logistical companies to get masks....amounting to around 6.4-billion Euro.  

Yeah, it's a bit of money, and the funding side of this is awful questionable.  But contracts were issued.

Somewhere in the midst of this....some companies (maybe they weren't that smart) procured at a rate that was higher than the government was willing to pay.  This wasn't answered very well by Plus-Minus journalists.  Lets just say that over a billion in excess....exists, in terms of masks/cost.

The pricing business by the Health Ministry?  It's a big question mark, and the audit folks are asking how they arrived at their pricing and how realistic it really is.

At least 57 'dealers' are now lined up with the court system, and demanding to be paid.  In some cases, they are sitting on warehouses, with tons of pallets of masks sitting there, and the path of distribution and payment is questionable now.

A lot of these masks made outside of the Europe?  Well....yeah, that's part of the story as well.  A lot were made in China.  

In one of the stories told in this episode.....the purchaser (a German) had 70 tractor-trailers loaded with masks to make the journey from China to Germany.  She's got an entire warehouse....just sitting there, and waiting for her payment and the distribution plan.  One truck unloaded....69 loads just sitting there with no plan/no payment.

Where all of this is leading to?  It appears that a legal action will occur, and the judge is going to eventually come around to the Health Ministry and order them to pay off the dealers and relieve them of the storage burden.  This means that the Health Ministry will have to go out and procure massive warehousing (probably the size of forty soccer-fields), and have tons of negativity dumped upon them for masks just sitting there.

I will say this....as long as they can order people to wear the masks.....the emergency and potential usage of the warehouse masks will continue.  If and when the vaccine arrives....the need for the masks dissipates rather quickly.  The odds of twenty massive warehouses of masks just sitting there at the end, a billion Euro worth of masks....without purpose?  Well....yeah, that's the amusing side of this story.

I should add this.....the cost of renting temporary warehouses upon the dealers?  Oh....well, the court will order the government to cover that storage.  So, we aren't really at the end of this mess on cost yet....there's more to come.  If this were me, I'd take 300 tractor trailer loads of the masks, and accept them (pay for it)....then route them to African countries as a donation deal.  The longer you sit on them....the more the storage costs will be.  

It's a funny problem, if you think about it.  It's also a serious cost problem, if you think about it.  Luckily they didn't order 25-million toilet seats from China. 

'Bad-Boy' Police?

 If you followed last night's news (via public TV at ZDF or ARD), the number one news item is an investigation going on in the state of NRW (northwestern part of Germany). It centers on 29 state policemen....who engaged in 'chat' or emails in a extreme right-wing way.  Basically, that's the entire pot of facts in the situation.  The rest of the reports was the anger or frustration by politicians as they hyped up their views.

What'll happen with the 29?  It would appear that some type of 'truth-commission' will come out of this, and decide upon each person's fate.  Most probably will get dismissed.  Most will sue in court to get their job back.  

So you are left with this odd feeling.....behind the scenes, the police are probably telling their members to stay off social media....that various German investigators are infiltrating the system and looking for people to take down.

Why only right-wingers in the police and no left-wingers?  I posed this question to my German wife, and she just started laughing.  If you did have a left-wing intention.....there's zero chance you'd ever select the police profession as a job.  She's probably correct about that view.

The problem I see here, and it's the same with the drug-scene, and the demonstration-scene....German policemen are the ones at the front of the situation....day in and day out.  

They see daily problems and issues way more than politicians or journalists.  If you took ten journalists around Germany and directed them to spend six months on duty and accompanying the police....at the end of that time....they'd have a totally different view on crime, demonstrations, drugs, and immigration.  They'd also have a marginal view of prosecution behavior and the results rendered by the court system.

What'll happen out of the right-wing extremist deal over the police?  I'm likely to predict sixteen different 'state-truth-commissions' coming to exist with a permanent job to spy on the police and eventually even get around to firemen as well.  

Speed Story

 It wasn't really a page one story.....I doubt if it even made page 3 of most German newspapers....for yesterday.  N-TV told a good bit of the story and I'd recommend a read.

The vote came up in the Bundestag....to lower the speed limit (from unlimited) to a max of 130 kph.  It was introduced by the Green Party.  Virtually all of the Greens, and Linke Party voted for the speed limit.  The CDU-CSU folks, the SPD, the AfD, and FDP.....voted down the measure.

Chancellor Merkel?  She made a direct comment in this case....at this moment, the limit wasn't necessary.  

Public support?  You can find a few polls around which suggest a majority (maybe just over 50-percent) of Germans believe some limit might be necessary on the autobahns.  

The problem in this discussion was that the Greens also wanted two-lane roads (the b-class) to be lowered from 100 kph (62 mph) to 80 kph (50 mph) and in highly urbanized areas.....down to 30 kph (19 mph).  Once you bring this idea....I suspect the polling numbers rapidly decrease.  I personally doubt that you can find more than 5-percent of the population who'd agree to that type of measure.  

Now, if you asked Germans.....when driving on the autobahns....how fast do you normally drive, most will answer in the 110 to 130 kph range.  Most will also admit that weather conditions dictate their speed in more than 50-percent of the occasions.  

In the 34-degree C temperatures....I'm awful fearful of 'buckling' (where the pavement loosens and comes loose).  At 1-degree C, with fine mist on the pavement, I'm fearful of 'black ice' on the road.  

So, is this the end of the discussion?  No.  It'll probably come up again in 2021.  Eventually, I think that various German states will pick up the matter, and just limit the speed within their state.  You will end up with five or six states that stay unlimited, and the rest settle upon 130 kph. 

Germans, Americans, and Lack of History

 Early this morning, I watched a piece via N-TV (commercial German news), and the topic was....Americans who had no idea of the Holocaust.  The actual number was around 63 percent who didn't know much of anything over the German Jew situation in the 1930s/1940s.  

The survey?  Conducted by the 'Claims Conference'....a group of Jewish organizations.

Even going state by state....it was pretty dismal (19-percent in NY).

So here's the thing, you could have done the same history 'test' and asked about the American Civil War, and found the same numbers....with people knowing next to nothing about the event or the outcome.  

You could have asked WW I, and a marginal group of people would have been able to answer ten basic questions over the start of the war, and key events.

You could ask questions about literally hundreds of events....that people should know some basic facts and find that it's a marginal group who remembers anything.

I can get the same basic story with German society....asking a dozen questions of the WW I era, and finding Germans lacking any real memory of the period.

Part of this problem is the dull nature of history, and that a majority of people have zero interest in this, while in their teens. Another issue is the presentation of the information in such a way, that is quickly forgotten in a matter of weeks.  

Germans will express shock over this US statistical story involving the Holocaust, but if you conducted the same test with Germans (under the age of forty, and non-university people)....you'd likely get the same results.  History just isn't something that gets remembered that much.  

Scams in this Covid Era

 This came up in the AM today, a local story from Wiesbaden.

85-year-old German gal gets this call.  Guy says he's from such-and-such clinic, and the granddaughter is tested positive on Covid-19 test, and must enter quarantine.  The guy then says that the relative doesn't have cash to survive quarantine, and grandma needs to come up with 'cash' (amount not specified).  Naturally, someone would come by and pick up the 'loot' later.

In this case, grandma didn't fall for the trap, and hung up on the guy....calling the granddaughter and finding her safe with no Covid-19.  

Scams evolve on a monthly basis.  

Billion Dollar 'Bribe'?

 It's a bit amusing, but factual.  Germany (via a Focus business report today) says that it'll offer the US....one billion dollars to just shut up about the Nord Stream pipeline deal....to deliver natural gas from Russia to Germany.

The effort to cancel or suspend the project because of the poisoning of the Russian?  Well....that whole tirade by the Germans to 'fall upon their sword', has fallen apart.  No one in the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition seems willing to fully cancel or halt the pipeline project.  

So the gimmick to be employed....pull out roughly 850 billion Euro (a billion dollars) to get Trump to just shut up.

How much was at risk, if the poisoning had led to cancelling the project?  Around four to five billion Euro.  So money-wise, it makes sense to pick the one-billion dollars and just offer it.

If German tax-payers had any incentive to halt the bribe?  I suspect 80-percent of the German public would ask....what the hell are you doing offering a bribe?

So the question comes to this....would Trump just say 'fine' and the US accepts the one-billion-dollar bribe?  No one can really say anything about this....one way or the other.  Trump might say fine and accept.  Trump might go and say it has to be two-billion dollars, and just grin at the Germans.  They might say sure....paying out the two-billion.  

Arson in the Moria Camp Fire?

 This morning, ARD (German public TV, Channel One) updated the situation at the Moria refugee camp on Lesbos (Greece).

What the local police now say is that they've arrested six folks for the fire that started up two weeks ago and destroyed the refugee camp.

All six are young migrants who lived in the camp.

Greek radio (ERT) is saying that the police comments coming out is that the six are all Afghan young guys....who had submitted asylum paperwork, and 'failed'.  

If all of this is true...it'll harm the 'story' that journalists have tried to make out of the situation.

Meanwhile, the bulk of the displaced folks (13k approximately) have refused to move to the temp-facility set up (max of 5k possible there), and they simply reside in the open near the old Moria site.  They all anticipate if they just keep to this plan.....someone (Germany) will come to accept them.   The problem here, if you think about it....sanitation is marginalized to zero, disease is going to be a major problem shortly, and fall weather is approaching over the next month.

Tapped out as news item number one for the public news folks in Germany?  Yes....since early last week.  

Tourism Hurt in Germany Because of Covid-19?

 Simple answer.....yes.

Our public TV network (HR) did a report on this.  Basically things did go well for campers in the state of Hessen (where I live).  The numbers are up 11-percent from they were a year ago.

On hotels?  Dismal.  Forty-two percent of 2019 guests were missing.  The foreign guests? Missing in a massive way.....around three-quarters of the normal guests from beyond Germany missing.  From the ones who did show....I would imagine most were from Italy, Netherlands or a nearby country.

Normal occupancy fell to around 27-percent....in the period when you'd have a lot of summer guests and be maxed out.

The HR folks even noted that Frankfurt hotels were hit worse than the outlying areas. 

Likely to continue?  Until you rebuild the foreign visitor situation, I don't see any significant improvement.  Tourism in Germany can probably handle one single year of this type of effect, but if you go into mid-summer of 2021, and this continues?  At that point, you might have a couple of big-name hotels that just say enough....shutting down.  

It's the same with cruise-boats on the Rhine and these bus tours.  All of them are in the suffering situation.  

Another Greek Isle Fire?

 Well....yes, and no.

A small fire broke out on the isle of Samos, near the vicinity of another refugee camp (Vathy).  It is dry this time of year and possibly unrelated to the refugee camp itself.  Or it might be locals trying create another wave of people leaving.  Or it might be residents of the camp hoping to create another exodus of refugees to Germany.

Location of Samos?  About 4 km off the coast of Turkey, maybe 80 km south of Izmir, Turkey.

This fire was put out rather quickly, and stayed around 200 to 300 meters away from the camp itself. Focus told a good bit of the story.

The worry about these fires being manufactured to create a route to Germany?  That's the harsh part of reality....no one has really moved over the past two-plus years, until this episode at Lesbo started up.  

The 'Tiny' Crowd

 For about two days now, this American Army 'spreader' story in Garmasch has taken on a vast amount of German chat and journalistic hype.

So today, BR (Bavarian public TV) came out and admitted something here.  

The hype on the US Army member is that they avoided guaranteeing after being told of a positive test result....then on partying big-time, and brought the virus twenty-odd people?

What the officials say today?  ONLY THREE individuals contracted the virus from the partying American Army individual.  Not twenty-odd people. Three folks?  Well....in Alabama, we'd refer them as a tiny crowd.  

That's it.

The end of the story?  Probably.  There might still be some punishment dished out to the Army gal, but it's probably just some fine, and three months of extra-duty.  

Licenses Lost Story

 Over the past couple of years, if you follow Turkish wedding stories around Germany....there's an occasional event where 'bad-boy' behavior erupts and people do stupid things....either in the wedding 'parade', the photo-shoot, or at the party afterwards.  So this event unfolded over the weekend in Wiesbaden, as reported local sources.  

Over Saturday afternoon on A66, the autobahn leading into the city....drivers noticed this group of cars moving at extreme speeds and in a unsafe fashion.

Leaving from the Hochst region (maybe 20 km away)....various Germans went to cellphones and called in a unsafe condition with the 'parade'.

Four high-powered sports cars.

Various police patrols were sent out and a man-hunt around Wiesbaden started up (their exit point on the autobahn).  No one says that cameras were used to 'spot' the crowd progressing through the city, but I would make a guess that it led to the end-point, where the four cars and a delux limo sat.

End of this story?  Police in numbers arrived.....the four guys with issues had their licenses taken, and the cars were impounded.

City DA on the project now?  Yes.  With a witness or two.....the four are in fairly serious trouble, and the license loss could go up to a full year, and require a fair sized fine.  

Why this behavior?  It's rare that you get an explanation for this.  The ages in this particular group?  25 to 39 years old.  Always young men?  Yes.  You never have a case where it's young women.  

Robbery Story

 About 30 minutes driving NW of Hanover, Germany....lays the town of Celle (170k population).  It's a town where upper-class Germans who work in Hanover....live.  What you'd generally say is that people feel safe in the shadow of Hanover.

So yesterday afternoon, in the heart of the downtown shopping district.....these two individuals showed up with the intent of robbing a jewelry store. 

It's a common thing that you see these days.....a gang with a basic plan, and the intent to make a quick hit....walking out with watches, jewelry, etc....probably making in the 100k range after they deal with the middle-guy.  I would make the bet that at least five or six such hits occur on a daily basis across Germany. 

In 99-percent of these cases, the criminals walk out with something.  Sometimes, it's what the plan was set for.  Sometimes, it's for much less.

In yesterday's Celle crime episode....the two guys met up with the shop owner (71 years old) who happened have a pistol (licensed) and had it in his possession at the shop.

Results?  NDR (regional public TV) reported on this.  

One guy dead at the scene....second dying at the hospital.

Police?  The investigation continues.  There might be manslaughter charges but you'd have to assess how the two criminals made their threat.  Curiously, one of the two sat in a wheelchair, as part of the robbery.  It's an odd thing and I'm guessing the police are still working on the intent and the identity of the two individuals. 

Updated: the one guy in the wheelchair.....apparently was not disabled.  Does beg a lot of questions.  Of the two dead folks.....one is currently identified (German), and the other is still a unknown figure.

TV Criticism

 On Sunday evenings, about a quarter of the time....the wife and I end up watching ARD (German public TV) and the 8:15 show....Tatort.  In the wife's words, if there is literally anything else possible to watch....fine.  Tatort is the last resort for German TV action on each Sunday evening.

My description of Tatort?  It's a show that has been around for thirty years and the formula revolves around 20 different police detectives/German cities.  A murder has occurred, and the ninety minutes centers on the actions to determine the guilty party.  On 5-percent of the occasions, you know the guilty party in the first ten minutes.

Some of these shows are well written, and takes you through a dozen-odd angles.  Some have decent acting.  Some.....well....just marginally tell a story, and you reach a point about halfway through the piece...wishing you'd watched 'Trucker-Babes' or 'Cooking Impossible'.  

This past Sunday night was one of the worst episodes I've seen, and the story failed on various levels.

The murdered centered on this young German guy.  The killer?  Well....it was an American non-secret spy gal, who worked at the US Frankfurt consulate....who happened to be a double-agent (apparently working for the Russians as well), and she had this fake daughter (the daughter wasn't even aware of her fakeness in the whole situation).  The husband?  Some nut-job (my description). 

Maybe after watching a number of Tom Clancy novels, the script writer probably thought they could invent some kind of Tatort script that was Tom Clancyish in nature.  

As all of this ended....the wife killing her husband, then coming to attempt the murder of her fake daughter...the two detectives come to 'save-the-day' and arrest the secret double-agent spy, and then find that she'll be sent back to the US, without facing justice in Germany....it all become a marginalized ninety-minute piece.

It's not a harsh criticism of the series....there are always a handful of well done scripts and shows, but on the other side of this....there are some really marginal pieces which just don't work.  So if you ever sit there and the TV guide comes up to say the 'Funkstille' Tatort version is coming on shortly....do yourself a favor and flip over to some penguin documentary or some 1966 cowboy movie.  

Moria Update

 As the smoke clears today over Moria (the refugee camp on Lesbos, Greece)....some of the German decisions (by the Chancellor and coalition) are appearing.

Focus discussed some of the current things to happen.

Chancellor Merkel and Seehofer (the Interior Minister)....are talking over the idea that Germany will take around 1,500 additional refugees from the burned-out camp....saying that it'll be the ones with families and those with serious conditions.

One problem with this discussion....it hasn't been agreed upon by the coalition partner (the SPD Party).  My humble guess is that they return walk to the table and say nothing less than 6,000 in number.  A negotiation will take place and by Thursday....the number will be 4k to 5k in refugees.

The new camp idea?  Proceeding ahead, and it appears that the EU will rebuild the camp, in a more modern way.  The EU is also saying it'll run/fund the camp (not the Greeks).  

If the French and a few more countries go into this deal....you might see the bulk (maybe 10k of them removed from the island) and the remainder might be strictly young men by themselves.

Negativity over more refugees coming into Germany?  Over the past three years, they've gone back to the regular number of 200k to 250k asylum seekers (which as the average number before 2013).  If this situation with the Moria crowd stayed at around 5k, and they kept the incoming crowd at 500 to 1k a week....without a lot of PR by the public TV media....maybe the AfD crowd wouldn't gain much traction or project much negativity.  It probably would help if they brought only women, or families, and didn't bring in a bunch of young men by themselves. 

Curiously, all of this has relieved the Chancellor of making decisions over the Russian poisoning or the natural gas pipeline.  It also stalled any action by Germany on the Greece and Turkey friction going on.  And it chilled the reaction by the Chancellor over the Belarus situation.