If you've watched German nightly news over the past two days.....it's fairly hyped up over a fire that swept through a refugee 'camp/compound' in Moria, Greece (isle of Lesbos, about 20 miles off the western coast of Turkey). Lesbos, before the refugee business started up....was a major destination of German tourists in the summer period.
The camp/compound was originally designed and built to house around 2,500 residents. As of the fire, locals say it housed around 13k residents....all waiting for 'placement'.
Was placement ever going to occur? Basically.....no. Not unless the EU reaches a conclusion on a refugee policy....basically forcing at least three member-states to accept refugees against their will. To be kinda honest, depending on the wording....it might be five to ten states in a frustrated position.
To further complicate matters in Germany, at least a dozen big-name mayors have sided on the idea of taking refugees, without any concern of the EU. Both the Green and SPD Party are siding on the idea of 'some' (meaning 2k) refugees.
So why doesn't this agenda advance? There are four basic issues:
1. Even if Germany did find 'courage' to take 2k, will other members of the EU come in and find ways to accept the remaining 11k residents of this burned-out compound? France, Spain and the Netherlands might....but in limited numbers.
2. If Germany found enormous courage and took the 13k? It would trigger a lot of questions, and political turmoil....as they enter a national election year in 2021. The AfD would make various comments, and it's a pain that brings voting issues.
3. Once you did this, in any fashion....would other refugee camps/compounds in Greece go up in flames, and those occupants demand the same right to Europe? You have to wonder about this, and how things would get out of hand real quick. Politicians would probably not grasp this angle, and quickly come to some 'oh crap' moment, and no way to maneuver out..
4. Would more refugees sitting in Turkey or Lebanon see a 'green-light' here and stage themselves in Lesbos, for more fires, to get their pass into Europe? It'd be a likely scenario to play out, and no one would stand in their way....even the Greeks.
What'll happen? Mostly emergency meeting situations at the EU and people whining that it's unfair that three countries stall a EU-policy. Eventually, someone will utter the idea of punishing the three countries, by denying them funds, and then the meeting will conclude because several other countries think that's fairly radical and unfair.
Then the EU will agree to provide funds to rebuild the camp and send more cash to Greece to handle the problem.
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