Tuesday, September 8, 2020

The Belarus Landscape

If you watched German TV news over the past six weeks, this drama has been playing out almost daily in Belarus.

The key component? Alexander Lukashenko.   He's been 'president' for 26 years, and in the election held on 9 August....he was declared the winner (6th term).  The problem is....no one believes the results (supposedly, he won with around 90-percent of the vote).  The opposition candidate?  She believes that she won with around 60-percent.

Things got hectic....the opposition candidate slipped out the side door and left the country.  There are rumors that Russia was asked if Lukashenko asked if he could have asylum there. 

Nightly, this drama has played out on German news.  It's usually been one of the top three news items each evening.

A big country?  No.....9.5-million residents, with the bulk (maybe 70-percent) living in the urban zones where jobs exist.  Economics-wise, this is a similar case to the Ukraine....where some trade agreements with the EU would really help. 

So we turn to last night.....the number 2 opposition 'player' disappeared off the streets, and it's believed that government agents simply took her.  It's moved up a notch in terms of drama and chaos. 

How much of this is factual?  That's the problem that truly exists.  You can't say anything much over the election.  Maybe Lukashenko did win it with 51-percent of the vote.  Trust in the results are basically non-existent at this point. 

The fact that 'female-solidarity' figures into the opposition campaign efforts?  It's made the election and the aftermath into an interesting situation.  Some journalists have suggested that 90-percent of the female voting population are aligned with the opposition party.

Ending anytime soon?  No. 

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