German Car Industry 'Worry'

Right now, if you went and measured 'worry-scale' on German automobile industry workers....it's maxing upward to '8' or '9', with sales lagging and termination lists being drafted for 2021.  

Well....things got bumped up another notch this morning with a news report out of N-TV....on the new EU chatter.  The hype?  A new and higher limit on C02 levels produced out of cars....for 2030.  

For weeks, the EU hype was that they'd draft up the legislation and the number would be a 37.5-percent cut on C02 emissions.  Well....yesterday, the draft flipped....they've gone and pushed the cut to be a 50-percent cut.

There are also added portions now to the plan, which if you read over the script....fuel of any type (diesel or gas) would go dramatically up.

Reaction by the German car industry....mostly all negative.  The present market 'share' for E-cars in Germany (in the past couple of months) is around 7-percent.  Some in the government suggest that the number needs to be closer to 50-percent....to have an effect.

(note: that 7-percent share on E-cars?  It only reaches that level because roughly one-third of all car sells that you saw in 2019....are NOT occurring...mostly over economic conditions for most Germans, in the middle of the Covid-19 crisis.  If you did the normal sales, the rate would be closer to a 3.5-percent on E-car sales.)

Where all of this is leading?  You see three basic things coming down the pike:

1.  There's a 'Jesus-period' coming for the German auto industry, and massive unemployment numbers, and no way for the Chancellor or government to rectify the situation.  You need adult leadership in the room, and it simply doesn't exist.  So expect some serious political fallout over the next five years.

2.  Unless something happens....holding onto a gas/diesel car after 2030 is going to nearly impossible unless you are willing to throw a thousand to two-thousand Euro to the govenrnment to 'let' them allow you that privilege.  Just looking at the fuel gimmick coming....it could be easily 2-Euro a liter for fuel, and a full-tank costing you nearly 100 Euro.

3.  The E-car world?  Little is ever said about the grid and dependency to evolve if E-cars are the norm in 2030.  Germany already has some of the most expensive electrical cost of any European country, and it can only go higher over the next decade.  You could easily be standing there and only affording a recharge on your car from midnight to 5 AM....twice a week, and wondering how the hell you ever got into such a dilemma. 

This whole thing becoming an issue for the 2021 national election in Germany?  It wouldn't surprise me if this was a top five issue.