Wednesday, October 27, 2021

Vienna Attack

 Yesterday (Tuesday)....at a sidewalk eating establishment....some guy grabbed a knife and slashed four people (2 x guys, 2 x gals....all over the age of 48).  No one seriously wounded.

Attacker?  Police are looking at the background of the guy, but he is a mid-30s native Austrian, and a fair number of social media mentions.....indicate he's mostly a street-walker who is mentally challenged/ill.  Zero mention of religious or political background.

It's just another case that I point out....in most major European cities....you need to continually pay attention to things around you.  There are a lot of druggies, schizophrenic types, and just plain nutcases. 

Tuesday, October 26, 2021

What Was the National Socialist Freedom Party (NSFP)?

 Well....first, you can equate the NSFP group to the National Socialist Freedom Movement (translating into German as the Nationalsozialistische Freiheitsbewegung) or NSFB.

So after the great beer-hall attempted coup in late 1923 in Munich, with Adolph Hitler and his Nazi group.....things got toss around and the Nazi apparatus got branded as a national 'problem'.  Hitler went off to prison for a short while.

The Nazis rebranded themselves into the National Socialist Freedom Party in April of 1924.

Chief reason?  A national election (on the four-year cycle) was to occur in May 1924.  

Outcome in May's election for the NSFP folks?  Around 6.5-percent of the nation voted for them (near 2-million votes).

This election, more or less, crapped-out (coalition-building issues), and another election was required by December 1924.  For the NSFP, this was a demoralizing mess....getting roughly 900,000 votes (3-percent of the national vote).  It was the last time that NSFP would exist in terms of a national party.  Hitler would emerge out of prison....NSFP would rebrand itself....back to the Nazi Party.

Four years would pass, and even in 1928's national election....the Nazis were still not able to attract voters (barely getting 810,000 voters.....even fewer voters than in 1924).  

If you brought up NAFP today?  It's mostly an unknown part of history, and most Germans would express surprise that the Nazis rebranded themselves.....and rebranded back....to get even fewer votes.  

Monday, October 25, 2021

Turkish Lira

 For anyone who follows currencies.....you could have gone back to mid-November 2007, and a US dollar would have bought you .85 Turkish Lira.  

Draw the trend line since 2007?

There's a marginal downward trend to around 2011, then a steady drop after that.  In the last couple of days....you could buy 10 Turkish Lira for one dollar.  

All this diplomatic chaos in the past month....hurting the Lira even more?  Well....you could make that case, but you could say the path for the Lira has never been positive while Erdogan has been in office.  

The full-up complete McDonalds 'big' combo meal?  Currently in Istanbul....if you did the currency game....it's around $3.40.

Sunday, October 24, 2021

'Patrol' Story

 It is a bit funny, but it really lays out the public discontent.

So, there's this 'campaign' going on in Hamburg, with a SPD 'Senator' by the name of Andy Grote.  

The starting point?  Some fans had a celebration situation going on one evening around the Hamburg soccer stadium (FC St. Pauli Stadium).  'Senator' Grote went to social media (Twitter) say some harsh words over the fans in a possible Covid situation and that they should not behave in such a way.  Yeah, he does use the word 'ignorant'.

Ignorant is not a bad word to use or even considered 'hate speech', but it does give the idea that the person in question is stupid.

N-TV discusses the bulk of this.

Back last year at some point....Grote went and broke one of the city hygiene rules on Covid....by having a celebration at some pub....which did eventually lead to a fine leveled by the city (1,000 Euro). 

People remembered that celebration deal.

After the stadium event....with Grote condemning this crowd.....someone used their Twitter account to send a tweet at Grote: "Andy, Du bist so 1 Pimmel" (translating to Andy, you are a #1 'willie').  'Willie' tends to mean a male 'Johnson' (for you Americans).

Grote felt this was an insult, and went to the state prosecutor office, and a search warrant started up on the Twitter writer.

Well....as you can imagine....this got out into the public, and there are various people in the city now....who have stickers made up and put them on signs/posts.....'Andy, you're a dick'.

Naturally, the city now has cops on the job.....trying to scrap off the stickers, and if you are found afixing the stickers...it can get you into serious trouble.

But by going after the Twitter guy, and having his home searched.....it's opened up a whole public agenda with the stupid stickers.  

Police now wasting their time on sticker-patrol around the St Pauli district?  More or less.  They don't say anything much but I would imagine sticker-patrol is taken as a joke. 

Stopping this?  Maybe these were professionally done in the beginning, but you can make the stupid stickers at home, and the prosecutor actions have just jacked up the intensity of the whole situation.

Bus Sale Story

 Around fourteen years ago....a Scottish company got 'doped' into buying US-owned Greyhound (the bus company)....paying 3.6 billion dollars.  Overpaid?  On my own scale....I'd say it was probably 3-billion more than it was actually worth.  

So years passed, and this past week, a German deal was done....to help relieve the Scottish company (FirstGroup) of their burden.

What the Germans company (Flixbus) paid?  172-million dollars.  

Yes, it was a pretty poorly thought out deal, and you could evaluate Greyhound to say they'd never be at the profit level they were in the 1960s.

ARD (public German TV) has the better reporting over the whole thing.

Flixbus operations in Germany?  Well....they ran a pretty simplified operation.....you buy tickets online....show up and the driver scans the paper/cellphone screen.  Most riders in Germany?  I'd say nine out of ten are just regular people (not dopers or nutcases)....trying to get from point A to point B (usually one to two hours away).  

Trying to resolve the Greyhound mess?  You'd have to go and deal with old crappy buses, a large group of dopers or low-income folks who ride the bus, and terminals that are in the wrong parts of town (Birmingham is a great example, but you can cite over 200 US cities in the same mess).  

If I were Flixbus?  I'd dump the bus terminal business and try to angle to airports, making runs from airport A to airport B.....taking people to the smaller towns inbetween, and I'd be blunt on dopers....we don't want your business.  An example here: run a route between the Nashville airport and the Memphis airport....every two hours.  

The odds of Flixbus giving up in five years....admitting Greyhound can't be saved?  I'd give it 50-percent odds.  


Saturday, October 23, 2021

Work Story

 I sat and watched a N-24 news piece this morning in Germany (commercial news).

Topic?  They suggest that Germany is presently in the midst of a worker shortage (amounting to around 1.2 positions that need to be filled).

The 'selling-point'?  Well....prepare yourself....it's bad enough that the discussion among companies is reaching the point of asking for some form of directed immigration/migration.  

They aren't saying wild and unplanned migration.  They say that the seventy-odd fields in question need to be written with a good idea of recruiting people with the skills required already.  That means.....few, if any, Tunisians, Afghans, or Syrians will get in the door.....unless they had these skills.

Likely showing up in places like South Korea, Taiwan, the Ukraine, Argentina, or India?  Well...they suggest that you need particular types of skills and it's going require some unique HR-type skills to find the person, and recruit them into coming to Germany.

I sat and pondered over this.  First, you'd have to list the skill sets and establish the the type of person you need.  Then you have to show up in some country and advertise in some way with German work-visa applications.  Then, you'd have to sell folks on packing up (say from Australia or Taiwan) and move to Germany (higher taxes, and higher cost of living). 

Just finding 30-odd thousand people a year.....would be a serious 'pain'.

Housing in cities like Hamburg or Frankfurt?  The situation is already crappy before you even suggest 2k new people arriving from out-of-country.

It's an interesting problem, but I seriously doubt that it can be resolved.

The 'Boom' at 5:20 PM Yesterday (Friday)

 At some point around 5:20 PM yesterday (Friday).....I heard this 'explosion'.  I live in a village on the northern outskirts of Wiesbaden, and to me....it was like a natural gas explosion or a car-bomb.

Around an hour later....the authorities came on (via public TV) and said this was a sonic boom (something you really don't hear much in Germany at all).  

As a kid in rural Alabama, you'd hear sonic booms an average of two or three times a week (being almost normal).  In Germany?   In the last dozen years....I've heard maybe one, and this is the second.

What triggered the sonic boom?

Well...some passenger aircraft had lost contact with radar for a while (reason never explained).  Two Bavarian-based Euro-fighters were sent to find the aircraft, and went to top speed....triggering the sonic boom.

What the reporters say is that within a 60 to 80 km range....you are likely to hear the 'boom'.  

Friday, October 22, 2021

Crazy Refugee Idea

 I sat and watched a N-TV update report today....on migrants trying to reach Germany.  

Up in North Rhineland-Westphalia (NRW) (far NW of Germany), they have an FDP politician in charge of the state Integration Ministry.....Joachim Stamp.  He gave an interview today.

So he is suggesting a pretty wild idea.  He says the way to stop all this refugee action, with thousands trying to enter Germany....is to get 'outsiders' interested in 'helping' Germany.

How?

He envisions going to three countries that want EU membership (Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldovia).....making a deal that they would readily accept the refugee crowd and thus get membership in the EU.  

I paused there.....pondering over this idea.

If you approached most folks in Georgia, Moldovia, and Ukraine.....they'd tell their economic situation is crappy, and there's no jobs for 100k refugees coming into any of the three.

Then if you turned to the refugee crowd....they'd tell you that they don't want Georgia, Moldovia, or the Ukraine.....they want Germany.

The only way to interest the three countries or the refugees?  You'd have to throw a bunch of Euro at the group, and I'm not talking about a lousy billion Euro a year.  

But maybe Moldovia would look at this.....two billion Euro in the pot....half to finance just 100k refugees in some permanent camp, and the rest as simple 'bribe-money' for the politicians of Moldovia.

Heck, maybe even North Korea would apply for EU membership....if you were paying countries a billion Euro a year.  

After a while, I considered the whole suggestion as a pretty wild 'farce' and one of the more crazy ideas I've heard in 2021.  

Grid and Car Talk

 I sat and watched a business report today (German business news), which chatted to the idea that Germans will dump gas/diesel cars because of the increasing cost of fuel, and switch to electrical cars.

I sat and pondered over this.  The price of one single kWh at the mid-point of 2021 was 31.94 Euro cents.

The cost of power (single kWh hour) was 4.4 Euro cents in 2010 (11 years ago).

The odds of the kWh reaching 50.00 Euro  cents by the end of 2024?  I'd give it better than a 70-percent chance.  

In fact, if you drew the spreadsheet....by 2030....it's likely to be over 75.00 Euro cents per kWh.  

The E-car enthusiasts never talk over the rate, and how it increases year after year.  

Germany and Covid: 22 Oct 2021

 1.  Incidence rate up?  A week ago....the rate was around 68 (per 100k).  This morning, the new rate is set at 95.  That magic moment it goes over 100?  You'll probably get a fair amount of 'talking' by the political establishment.

2.  There's chatter now (ARD news this morning) that while the eperdemic stage will expire on 25 November.....for the federal folks....several states are now discussing their own programs, and a number of protective measures will be signed by the states themselves.

3.  About halfway between the Dutch border and Bremen....is the town of Cloppenburg.  News this morning via ARD says that a major outbreak has occurred there....within a butcher enterprise.  65 employees infected there since the 4th of October.  

4.  About an hour's drive east of Hamburg is the town of Schwerin.  ARD reports this morning that in a medical ward (for serious medical situations)....about ninety-percent of the patients in this one ward are identified with Covid.  

5.  Austria has implemented the 3G rule (immunized, recovered from Covid, or tested within past 24 hours) for regular working people.  It means as you step into your work-place.....you have to show 3G in some way.  If you aren't vaccinated....it means a daily test, or you prove you are recovered from Covid.  

6.  Current pricing for Covid 'quickie-tests' that you can buy at the German supermarket/grocery?  Around 7.99 Euro for a box of five tests.  I should note....they are all made in China.  One particular brand (via Amazon) is offering the five-kit deal for around 4.50 Euro.  

I should also note that self-kits for pregnancy (the ten test kit box) runs 3.99 Euro.  

Originally, in mid-2020....these self-test kits were going for around 6 Euro per single kit....so the pricing has more or less collapsed....drifting down to around 1.30 to 1.40 Euro per kit.  My humble guess is that most will be a single Euro per kit by early 2022.  

Mass Killings in Germany

 It's an odd topic, and I tend to spend hours each year reading over crime, murders and historical German events that fit within these areas.

So first, I tend to divide German mass murders into five groups.

The first group is the Roman-era, where you end up with mass murders (sometimes into the thousands).

The second group is the Catholic Church era.  Some of these mass killings involve Jewish groups which became a target....some involve anti-church groups which weren't being cooperative with Church 'guidance'.

The third group comes after the Thirty Years War (ending in mid-1600s), and this mostly revolves around political revolt or rebellon.  

The fourth group starts in the early 1900s, and you can say that the Bremen school shooting (by a nutcase school instructor) started the new era.  In the Bremen case....the guy acquired several pistols at a local gunshop, and the gunsmith had reasons to suspect the guy was nuts.  A local policeman was notified and even asked questions....but took the situation no further.  On 20 June 1913....the nutcase shot five dead at the school and wounded around twenty others. 

The fifth group starts up in the 1930s, with the Nazi apparatus chiefly responsible.

So as 1945 comes around....we revert back to the fourth group....private individuals.

Summer 1964, Koln, school attack....ten dead, twenty-two wounded. In this case, no pistol or rifle.  The guy used a spear and flame-thrower.

October 1980, Oktoberfest bombing. 13 people dead, over 200 wounded.  The police would eventually figure out the bomber (he was among the dead) as being an emotionally fragile person, somewhat connected to Nazi groups, having failed his occupational exam, and a loser at relationships.  While some of this was true....no one wanted to talk about the potential for accomplishes.  In the past five years....ample evidence has come out to say at least one other individual was involved in the planning for this.

Summer 1983, Eppstein school (across the valley from my village).  This was a mid-30s Czech refugee who was considered 'gifted' but also never achieving much in life.  In this school shooting, six dead and fourteen wounded.

Spring 1993 Solingen fire attack.  No weapons used in this attack. Four skinheads set fire to a house that Turks lived in.  Five dead, fourteen wounded.  It set off a full year of hostilities by the Turkish community in NRW.  For the skinhead 'community', it invited in massive government surveillance, and downsized them. 

Spring 2002 Erfurt school shooting.  The guy involved (age 19) was considered 'gifted' but also had various personal problems which could never be detailed or explained.  At some point, he skips four days of school (even to this day, no one can say what he was doing).  Asked for a medical slip....he forged it, and got caught....then was expelled from the school.  Shortly after that, he shot his way through the school (killing 17).  

Summer 2007 Duisburg 'massacre'.  This is one of those stories that ought to be made into a movie.  What you had was a group of six Italians killed in their cars in front of a pizzeria shop.  One of the guys had already murdered another mob-related guy, and this was a retribution episode.  The suggestion that this opened up a Italian mob 'war' in Germany?  It gets openly discussed but never goes far.

Spring 2009 Winnenden school shooting.  Sixteen dead, nine wounded.  The shooter?  Young kid, 17 years old.  This was a kid who marginally got through school, and upon completion....when you'd go and enter an apprenticeship.....no one wanted to 'hire-up' the kid.  So he went into an emotional tailspin....going back to the school to shoot it up.

Summer 2016 Munich shooting.  This centered around a shopping mall, with ten dead and thirty people wounded.  Shooter?  This 18-year old was an Iranian-German (parents had come years before).  Digging through everything....the kid was bullied most all of his years in school.  As many positive things as they found....the kid never got ahead of the emotional burdens, and this attack was simply revenge for the bullying.  Weapon used?  Off Dark-Net. 

Fall 2019 Halle shooting.  Two dead.  This was an attack aimed at a Jewish synagogue.  Based on various accounts, this 'kid' had consumed an awful lot of propaganda and had reached some frenzied state of mind where he felt the attack was justified.  Captured alive, he was set for life in a holding facility, but for a brief five-minute period in 2020....he escaped.  I should note here....the weapon used?  Home-made....not purchased.     

As much as shootings get front-page news in the US and linger around for years as a anti-gun topic.....German stories like this get front-page coverage for about ten days.....then get some update six to twelve months later after the investigation/court case concludes.....then is dropped from history for the most part. 

Some are nutcases.....some are people with political agendas (left and right)....some are religious-fever type individuals (radicalized)....some relate to bullying...some suffering from a mental breakdown (that Bremen episode is a classic example of that).  Some are German....some are 2nd generation German.  Some are resident guests.  

The only odd characteristic you can draw from all of these.....none were conducted by women.  

But I'll add this one observation here at the end....if you use all of the past two thousand years of Germany (particularly the Roman era)....a whole lot of killing has taken place, and anyone claiming a 'final' chapter....only has to wait a year or so....for another chapter to be written. 

Public Forum Show

 Last night (Thursday, 10:15 PM, via ZDF....Channel Two of public TV in Germany), they ran the Maybrit Illner public forum show.  I should note....it's done live.

It's typically a round-table group, and generally always a political or economic forum.  

So on this show was Annalena Baerbock (Green Party Chancellor candidate, and co-boss of the Green Party) and Christian Lindner (leader of the FDP Party) are guests.  These two are part of the team building the coalition for the SPD Party (the winner of the September federal election here in Germany).

So Illner reached some point in the discussion....then turned to Baerbock and asked: "Did Mister Lindner negotiate better than you?"

What draws this is that from the original round of talks....most of the big things that the Green Party wanted.....were heavily diminished.  130 kph speed limit?  Zeroed out.  More taxation?  Zeroed out.  Control of the Finance Ministry?  Zeroed out.

As Illner asked the question....you could see that Baerbock was gritting her teeth, and this was a very unpleasant discussion topic.  They did flip the camera over to Lindner, who was in a mild grin....trying hard not to overplay the moment.  

Yes, Lindner played the whole negotiation so far for the new German government....like a poker game, and has come out ahead on each round.  

'Cave' Syndrome?

 It's a term I hadn't heard of.....spoken via Focus this AM, and relating to Covid.

The way that this is described....it's a mental state where you felt 'safe' in the 'cave', and Covid convinced you to be happy while in the 'cave'.  So with social stuff opening up (theaters, bars, pubs, etc)....people are reluctant to exit the 'cave'.

There's a survey mentioned in the article.....although going back to Feb 2021 (Americans used for the survey, not Germans) which says that 41-percent of folks just weren't that thrilled about walking around in public places.

I sat and thought about it.  

From 2013 to Feb 2020....I was a major customer of the bus/rail business here in Germany.  Once the virus hit....I halted virtually all use of trains and buses.  I've ridden the local bus one two times here in 2021, and I'll admit I had some anxiety on both trips. Anyone coughing?  I had the urge to get off at the next stop. 

I had the cough-worry last fall (2020) while in a grocery store.  I was number three in line to pay and exit....when the clerk-kid coughed.  It took me around 4 seconds to decide this wasn't the right line for me, and I stepped away to another clerk....waiting another five minutes extra.  

The regional bus folks will admit that they've taken a major hit on usage and their profits are substantially less than what they are used to.

Will 'cave' syndrome end up being a treated problem at some German mental clinic?   It wouldn't surprise me if by spring of 2022....health experts start to admit that they get a call or two each week, and have 'groups' that they handle....taking people through various stages to exit 'cave' syndrome.  

Thursday, October 21, 2021

New President of the Bundestag (An Unknown)

 The new pick (agreed upon by the SPD, Greens and FDP) for the job of President of the Bundestag....Bärbel Bas.

So here's the thing, this is mostly a job to direct the Bundestag daily business, and organize things to a degree.

Bas?  If you bring up her name in a group of a hundred Germans.....there might be one or two who've heard of her.  A total unknown to the rest of the nation.  

Her background?  Mostly as a health expert for the SPD Party.

A person without an Abi degree?  Yeah.  She's progressed and impressed people with her knowledge and attitude.  

Chief hobby? Motorcyclist.  Book reading?  Stephen King....not the classics.    

Was There Corruption in the Berlin-City Election?

 Well....RBB (public TV from Berlin) brings up this funny issue from September election....affecting one single voting station (a school building in the Spandau district).

What they say in a re-count now finished....the AfD did NOT win in a massive way in the district.

Originally, the results of this one site said that 21.6 percent of voters voted AfD (the far-right party).  From the recount, that 'win' was reduced to 7.9 percent.

The Linke Party (far left) rose from 1.9 percent of the vote....to 7.9 percent.

The problem here?  From that very first night's count....folks knew something was screwed up.  Only 464 had entered the building and voting.....so when they looked at the other parties (SPD, CDU, Greens, etc).....there were way more votes than people entering into the facility.  For whatever reason....they decided not to do the count that night, and waited two weeks minimum to accomplish the recount.

People disturbed by this count business?  Yeah, I'd say a fair number are asking stupid questions.  The problem is that various issues are noted at other sites, and some of these are simply looking like poor training and first-time poll-workers.  


Two Curious German Covid Stories

 I noticed via Focus this morning.....that they went to chatting about the most recent group of Germans to enter intensive care units (ICU), and they say now that roughly one-third of all Germans entering....are fully vaccinated folks.  They even cited numbers from the fully vaccinated group going in....that one-fifth of this vaccinated group in ICU situations....were of the age group of 18 to 59 years old.

How many of the vax-Germans of the 18-to-59 year old group were recently dead and certified as dead from Covid?  Well....5.1-percent.  

Second, there's this female singer in Germany....(probably not a top ten singer but she makes into the top thirty females)....Patricia Kelly.

Last year, toward the end of the year (around December), Kelly gets Covid and ends up in a pretty dire/serious situation but survives.  In this case, she had serious issues with kidney issues, stomach cramps, and loss of appetite (not your average symptoms).  She eventually recovers.  

At some point, in the spring of 2021.....Kelly gets vaccinated.  Well....this past week, Kelly comes out and announces while she was in the hospital recently for a foot-related operation.....she's been tested and has Covid a second time.  

That natural immunity business?  In her case....very limited, and the vaccination effective nature probably is very limited as well.  

Explaining Femegerichte

 This is one of those historical essays I occasionally write.

So around the time-period of 1919 to 1923 in Germany....things were in a chaotic state, and something called Fememorde would occur (basically meaning vigilante murders were accomplished).  

Femegerichte simply translated over to mean a court by the people for crimes that they were believing had occurred.  In simple terms....a vigilante court.

The chief target....left-leaning Germans (to include Soviet-minded Germans).

Number killed?  Historians state the number of 350....more or less.

Does this kinda explain why the Weimar Republic was never really took 'root'?

Converting Hartz IV 'Welfare-Money' to 'Citizens-Money'?

 So in the midst of this German coalition building (new SPD-Green-FDP government), the talk is....Hartz IV welfare money has to end.  They want to replace it with something called 'Burgergeld' which loosely translates to 'Citizens-money'.

A name-only flip?  Well....there's an argument brewing over this.

The talk is....somehow, via this new program (really welfare).....they want people to get enthusiastic about working, and getting training to fit into some future job.  But when you explain this....it's basically what Hartz IV was all about.....to drive you toward training to get out of welfare.

So the change-crowd is talking now.....that the new program has to have a lot more training money attached to it.  You'd entice the guy to accept the training, then get motivated to move onto a real job.....thus leaving welfare entirely. 

Back at the conclusion of 2018, the Hartz IV management folks announced that 5.93 million Germans/residents (out of 83-million total) are on some form of the welfare program.  

If you go viewing the public debates on this....some people (within the management of the program) will suggest that between a quarter to half of the whole Hartz IV welfare group are permanent people (druggies, alcoholics, people with zero desire to work).  Some will say they have anxiety/stress problems in work situations (driving them to smoke cannabis to relieve the 'pain'). 

If I were the guy messing with this?  I'd start off with a depot-style building in each city/village where the Hartz IV people gather each day at 8 AM and stay within the facility for eight hours....getting them used to leaving home.  I'd have some chairs for them to sit in, and a cellphone 'jammer' in the facility to ensure their phones didn't work.  

Then I'd offer up the options: training programs, drug/alcohol rehab, or some physical fitness program.

The odds in four years that the burgergeld deal changes nothing?  I'd give it a 90-percent chance of nothing really resolving the mess.  

The incredible problem here....the nation needs 80,000 new truck drivers.  If you could find the 80,000 welfare people....who'd pass the drug/alcohol situation and show reliability....you'd only have to pay around 10k Euro per person....to get them their license/training.  

Incoming Migrant Problem?

 Most all German news services are chatting over the issue.

So, the had of the Belarus government is peeved at treatment by the Germans (going on for more than a year) and he has gone to allow migrants in Turkey (the Syrians, Afghans, Iraqis) to enter, and head to the western side of the country (bordering Poland).

Poland, at least presently....is in the 'dog-house' over the leanings toward change that the EU (Germany in particular) is angry/hostile about.  

So Poland is hinting pretty strongly....there's this migrant problem building up.  The German political folks?  Well....yesterday, they responded.

Germans now say on average for the past month....there's been around 200 to 300 migrants crossing the Polish border into Germany.  Yesterday, new number comes out....in a single day, 925 migrants entered the border.  More today?  Well....a major storm started up, and I might expect things to less for a day or two, but go back to the 1,000-mark.

German states frustrated?  Well...whether they like it or not....distribution is going on and there's some worry that the 1,000 per day scenario will linger for months, unless Poland does something, or Belarus is pushed to 'change'.

The EU having a meeting over the crisis?  Well....yeah, but no one can say how they can manage a solution over this.  I noticed one mention of the Poles discussing the building of a wall/security fence (398 km).....but you'd have to construct an even longer border fence to cover the Ukraine and Lithuania as well.  Cost factor?  I'm guessing they'd want Germany to pay for at least 50-percent of this.

Refugees stopping in Poland?  No.....they all have the intention of migrating to Germany.  The Poles simply have to ensure they keep walking or traveling.....to reach the German border.  

What'll Happen When the 12-Euro Per Hour Minimum Wage Arrives?

 Presently, the wage minimum in Germany is 9.60 Euro per hour.  By mid-summer of 2022, it'll go to 10.45 Euro per hour.  

Based on the chatter of the SPD-Green-FDP coalition group....12-Euro will occur (probably by early 2024). 

Once it falls into place....'sticker-shock' will start to occur in odd places like bars, fast-food restaurants, etc.  

Driving this whole agenda?  Lets be honest and admit that a lot of no-skill jobs now exist in Germany, and skill-jobs often do pay real money (16 Euro and beyond).  This is why the emphasis of getting educated and certified in something is so critical for these 17 and 18 year old kids.  Your position in life, and your pay-status....is absolutely dependent on you having a skill.

Explaining This Whole German Natural Gas Fiasco

 To sum it up.....briefly....the German government has not gone and approved 'use' of the Nord Stream II pipeline (the new one going from Russia to northern Germany).

Presently, in terms of Russian natural gas (roughly 35-to-37 percent of what German consumers use)....comes via the southern pipeline (from Russia, to the Ukraine, onto Eastern Europe, and finally into central Germany).  It's been around and conveying natural gas since the mid-1970s.  

Russia would like to have Nord Stream II operating because they could then get tough on the Ukraine....making them pay full-price on natural gas (something they've avoided since day one).  Germany (at least the politicians say this) wants both to exist in the future, and some discount to the Ukraine to continue.

So Russia has hinted in some ways....natural gas might decrease a little on the first pipe....to enhance their position of turning on Nord Stream II.  All of this chatter....leads to price increases (anyone's guess but wouldn't shock me if we were talking five to ten percent).  

Is this a top five news item?  Yes.  

Will this operational status be sticking for the new German government (likely early-to-mid December) to resolve?  Yes. 

Odds of the Ukraine getting screwed?  99-percent, in my humble opinion.  

That's the whole story in a two-minute read.  

Wednesday, October 20, 2021

This Path to a 16-Year-Old German Voter

 What the coalition building exercise (SPD-Greens-FDP) is leading to?  Rumor has it....on the draft agreement....they will agree to allow 16-year-old Germans the right to vote in both the EU and German federal elections.  Likely passage?  If the rumors hold....by the end of 2022....it'll be written into the Constitution.  

The next EU election?  2024, no month discussed yet.  

The next German federal election?  Fall of 2025 (unless the coalition falters).

My general reaction?  I'm one of those people who'd raise the age to 21, if you gave me the choice.

How this drop from 18 to 16 is constructed?  Most Germans will say a 'kid' is an adult by age 16, because of the apprenticeship situation, and that beer/wine is readily sold to 16-year-olds.

How many votes are we talking about adding?  The number often discussed is two-million.  

Out of the two-million....how many are first-generation Germans?  Well....that's not an openly discussed number, and if you asked for a humble guess....I'd say presently around 10-percent are a first-generation German.  

How many would vote in this new age group?  Unknown.....although I would offer the suggestion that it'd probably reach near 90-percent on the 2025 election.  

Making the case that they probably aren't ready for something like this?  I hate to say it....but you could make the same case for 10-percent of Germans adults....going up to age 65 as well.

The possibility in the next decade....that a youth push will occur, and you start to see Chancellor candidates of age 25?  Well....it sounds like comical and unlikely.  But when you gaze over at Austria and Kurz...I might suggest that someone is going joining up with the Green Party at age 21 today and by 2025....they will establish themselves potentially as a candidate for Chancellor.  

I should add that no age limit is established for Chancellor....other than being a minimum of 18 years old to be a member of the Bundestag.  

So settle back and view the developing situation.  

Nord Stream II Back in The News

 Various news sites in Germany are talking about this speech of the Green Party 'boss'....Annalena Baerbock....saying she wants to hold back the operational 'permission' for the Russia-to-Germany natural gas pipeline (Nord Stream II).

Logic?  Well....the claim is that the EU has a regulation that the operator of a pipeline....cannot be the person/company who sells the natural gas.  

This holding back of the 'permission'?  It's hard to see anyone being happy over this (particularly the Russian companies).  Part of this tactic might be the idea of stalling things.....allowing the original pipeline going through the Ukraine.....still be used for the most part.

The amusing thing....it's basically the same kind of chatter you'd expect out of Donald Trump.  

Creating this 'path' in the beginning of winter?  I'd suggest it not being that wise.  Probably more to come next week.   

Truckers Story

 N-TV ran a piece early this AM...on the topic of Germany and truck-drivers.  

For those who think the trucker shortage is just a UK or US thing.....no, even German logistical companies are admitting some problems in getting enough truck drivers.

The current 'missing' numbers?  Around 60k to 80k drivers just not there.

Chief reasons?  Well....the pay-scale is often brought up....but it goes onto other reasons as well.  You can be gone for several days at a time....away from the family.  On top of that....you have the problem of a shortage of parking spaces for evening rest.

If you travel around Germany, I'd readily agree on the parking space problem.  It's an issue they should have realized twenty years ago, and avoided.  Go try to pull into any rest stop or autobahn fuel stop at 7 PM.....the whole lot is full of parked trucks for the night.  

All of this shortage business building up for a day of 'reckoning'?  I would go and argue that point.  It won't be in 2021 or 2022....but there's some day coming in Germany where the logistical 'chain' will be disrupted.

Freedom Day Versus More Restrictions?

 There was a brief discussion that Focus put up today over the upcoming 'Freedom Day'....where the epidemic is resolved, and we go to a lesser status over Covid.  This agenda is currently pushed by the current federal Health Minister (Spahn, CDU).  25 November is the set day for the emergency to expire.

A lot of Germans are pumped up about this trend.

So....the expected new federal Health Minister (it's not guaranteed).....Karl Lauterbach (SPD)....has said that he's all in favor of more restrictions.  Spahn will likely still be around on the 25th of November....ensuring the 'end'.

As for Lauterbach's commentary?  To some degree, he's just saying that masks won't go away on trains/buses or in stores.  Federal control over this?  Only if the states allow such regulation.  

Is Lauterbach the virtual lock-in for the job?  No.  It's still possible that some Green Party member could get the Health Minister job.  You have to remember....it's a job which is not mandated for a doctor to be the Health Minister (Spahn was a pretty good executive over the Ministry).  

How I expect things to run after 25 November?  I expect Christmas Markets to open....with various hygiene rules in place.  Restaurants/bars will still probably require you to register your presence via the barcode rule.  I expect masks to be worn for years to come (never going away).  I expect the news media going down a step or two, and talking about Covid half as much.  

Tuesday, October 19, 2021

2G and a Covid Party

 For the benefit of non-Germans....to explain 2G standards....the German Health Ministry came up around four months ago and invented the 3G standard.

If you were going inside a pub, bar, cafe, restaurant, etc....3G meant that you were showing your vaccination status, recovered from Covid, or tested in the past 24 hours for Covid.  

For the owners of these enterprises....it made sense.  They just wanted something to get people back into their operation, and a return to 'normal'.  You could have invented 4G and said the 4th standard was a tattoo of a nude German gal on your arm would suffice, and the business community would have said fine.

Shortly after 3G got 'invented'.....2G  came along (meaning vaccinated or recovered from Covid).....so the test was being 'lessened' in some way.  

A lot of the vaccinated people got peeved about 2G because they weren't going to get access to clubs, bars, theaters, and eating establishments.

So I tell all of this....because this news story popped up over in Berlin, at a techno-club....which was enforcing the 2G  standard (no tests).  Focus reports the basic facts.

The club in question decide to reopen around two weeks ago and establish itself as a 2G situation.  Results after opening up?  Nineteen people so far....from evening number one....infected with Covid.

The nifty thing about this effort....because of all the automation involved these days to enter facilities like this....they have entry/exit data (your name, address).  So the district health authority is busy contacting 2,500-odd people.  Odds of more folks infected?  Well....you can only speculate about that.

Would testing folks at the door, or in the past hours before entry had prevented this?  You can only speculate about this.

The hygiene side of this?  Well....it's stupid but one thing about techno parties.....you burn a tremendous amount of calories, and sweat alot.  So imagine 2,500 folks in some warehouse situation.....sweat and moisture everywhere, and it's a festive occasion for virus 'bugs' to get passed around.  All you needed was one single guy.  


Bow and Arrow Update

 I essayed a bit last week over this Norway guy (Dane, who'd become radicalized....as the police say....to Islam).  The first story was that he attacked and wounded the seven odd folks (five dead) with a bow and arrow.  

Well....early this AM....a update occurred.  Apparently, the bow and arrow (when attempted)....didn't work.  So the guy resorted to use a knife on the seven people.  

My humble guess.....he might have seen the use of a bow and arrow on TV (like that Daryl from that zombie series) but unless you really use it on a frequent basis.....you aren't going to be a true user of it.  

Currently, the guy is up for a mental eval, and based on social media commentary....I don't think he will pass this.  The guy has had some kinda of mental issue for a number of years.  All this joining up with Islam in the past couple of years?  Probably a belief that religion of some sort would resolve his past 'demons', and that just didn't come true.  

Hahn

 It was announced today that Frankfurt-Hahn Airport is finally bankrupt.  A group of new managers are being assigned and they will attempt to salvage this to some degree....to sell off again.

The base was ceased in 1991, and turned over to the German government.  What I can generally say about the location (about an hour's drive west of Mainz) is that they had a fairly bad winter....every single year.  Fog would creep in on various days....black ice was a normal event locally, and snow was something that you had to be used to.

The Germans kept this idea that the runway (one of the longest in Europe) was worth something, and wanted it to become a commercial cargo location.  This simply never took off.

The use as a hub for cheap discount airlines?  It never worked. I used it on one occasion and considered the whole operation there to be just a step up from some bus terminals in the US.

About a decade ago, they had around 1.5 million passengers to make it through the airport (that was the peak more or less).

Attempted sale to a Chinese group?  That failed miserably.  

What I suspect will happen?  It would make a great location for manufacturing....but no one seems enthusiastic.  


Curious Suggestion

 Toward the end of last week....an accident occurred in Neukolln (a suburb of Berlin).  RBB (public TV from the area) speaks to the episode.

Basic facts?  On a late Friday night...a 19-year-old kid (German) rented/borrowed a 600-plus horsepower sports car.  There are differing views (via social media) if he just borrowed it, or rented it.

He made some turn at a high speed, and wrecked it.  Luckily, no one died, but several folks were taken to the hospital for injuries.

So the basic information came out to the political folks, and there's the city Justice Minister who says there needs to be a law to prevent 'novice' drivers from driving such sports cars.

How this would work?  Unknown. 

Where would you draw the line?  Special training for anyone (of any age) who intends to drive a 300 hp or more car?  

Why even limit it to 300 hp or more.....why not 200 hp, or anything above 100 hp?

Before Covid started up, in my local region....we had a guy (older guy) who went and bought a brand new Mercedes sports car (upwards to 300 hp).  He picked it in town (Wiesbaden) and was on the first drive....heading home (to my village on the far outskirts of town).  About 5 km into the trip....he whipped around some corner....hit something and ended up in a ditch.  Yeah, he totally destroyed the car....barely ten minutes in his hands.

Maybe this makes some sense, but I'd ask the question....who is going to conduct this training and how expensive will this be?  My humble guess is that it'd be a 8-hour class....conducted at some race-track in Germany, and a very small number of trainers involved in this.

To be honest....you might start this at 400 hp or more, but within a year or two....probably bring it down to 300 hp, and another year or two....drop it to 200 hp or more.  

What Really Drives the Pro-Cannabis Agenda in Germany?

 ARD (public TV, Channel One) did a update to this idea and there's one basic problem which the political parties are focused upon now.  

On the streets of Germany, whether the prosecutors or judges really want to discuss the matter.....is weed/cannabis being sold, with varying amounts of heroin being added.  In most cases, the user isn't aware of the additive, or has been told it's something else entirely.  

As the authorities point out....it's not much of a problem to develop an addiction at that point.

If you legalized marijuana....the 'stores' would clear up the mess with the additives.  

On the negative side of this discussion?  Well....anxiety and paranoid problems are known to increase....as you get into marijuana.  So if you did approve public sales....somewhere down the road in five years....some medical folks would start talking about more patients coming in and asking for help.  

So no matter how you view it....it's a lose-lose situation in the end.   

Electricity Contracts Being Cancelled?

 Well....yeah, here in Hessen....the talk started up yesterday as HR (our public regional TV network) talked about the letters starting to arrive at various homes.

Electricity in Germany runs along the lines of x-number of public companies.....tied to the grid, who provide you 'juice', at a certain rate/price.  

In this case....the companies had (maybe for several years) had a rate which made sense but in the past couple of months with inflation running rampant....they can't sell you the power at that cost level. 

So the letter arrives at your house, and it says....as of such-and-such day (usually ten days away), your power contract is terminated.  

People usually sit there and think....well, this can't be so sudden.  The fine print of your original contract basically hints that termination can occur rather quickly.

Where this is leading?  You have to find another company within a couple of days or face the power being cut off.  So then you review your options....you WILL be paying more for whatever contract you find.  

This leading to court cases?  Probably, but at the pace of the German court system....you might be sitting there for two years minimum.  

A lot of people?  No....presently, at least here in mid-October....it's hundreds.  But I would go and speculate by the end of the month....it'll probably get into the thousands.  

The Idea of a New Ministry in Germany?

 Well....the topic on the table to be discussed is a 'Climate Ministry'. 

Now, you would think that the Environmental Ministry would basically serve this purpose....but no....the chatter centers on an independent and completely separate Climate Ministry. 

Wouldn't this affect the rest of the ministries?  Well....yeah, that is part of the mess being created.  

A done deal?  No.....it's simply being discussed.  

Wouldn't this person end up being the Chancellor in various aspects?  This is the thing that you tend to wonder about.  Obviously, this Ministry would end up bringing nuke power back to Germany.  This Ministry would probably force the E-Car onto the public....even if they don't want it.  This Ministry would have strong control over industry, commerce, power-production, and tourism.

Open discussion in the public arena?  No....it's barely brought up.  If you asked a hundred Germans....I doubt if more than a quarter of them are aware of the discussion going on.  

Talking Economics

 If you were driving around Germany a year ago, you might have noticed that diesel fuel was barely 1-Euro per liter.  Today?  It's 1.55 Euro per liter.

It's being noticed by a number of folks, and economic problems are openly discussed now.  I noticed this in the AM today....via a N-TV discussion.

All of this is driving food at the grocery stores up, and part of the inflation process.  

To peak at 1.55 Euro?  No....I've noticed various oil experts suggesting a twenty-cent more increase is very likely by Christmas, and it might not retreat until spring.  

Some of this relating to the Euro/Dollar rate, and that oil is often sold via the dollar deals?  Yeah.

Some of this relating to the CO2 tax deal put into effect at the beginning of 2021?  Yeah.

At the tail-end....this affecting grocery prices?  Yeah.

For every cent up this goes....it has a relationship to more taxes, so the government is making more revenue, without doing much.  

Monday, October 18, 2021

Germany: Covid Emergency Ended?

 Well....across N-TV this afternoon....there's a talk given by the federal Health Minister (Jens Spahn, CDU) who says the time has come to discuss the 'end' of the national emergency.

Yeah, rather shocking.

How this comes up?  RKI (the real agent of covering the national emergency) has finally made the statement that the risk of vaccinated people is only 'moderate'.  

So what's openly discussed?  Ending the epidemic on 25 Nov 2021.  Why this day?  Well....the set procedures and requirements were written to expire on this day, unless you renewed it.  So the present government (CDU-CSU-SPD) is looking at this idea.  The new government (probably will take over by Christmas).....SPD-Greens-FDP.....haven't really discussed this as an issue. 

All agreed?  If you look around....a lot of different feelings.  Some want the emergency to continue at the present pace.  

Potential for more stringent rules?  I'd say at this point....just about gone.  Masks?  No one says much, but I tend to see this and the 1.5 meter social distance rule probably will still be around.  

How Germans might celebrate the 25th?  Personally, I think they ought to party up....share some beers with friends....hug....and hope that nothing else ever occurs like this again.  

Fuel/Electric Tax in Czech Temporarily Cut?

 May be a shocker to some, but late today.....it's reported that the Czech government sales tax (VAT) for gas and electricity will be cancelled out for November/December....because of the rising cost.

Cost factor?  It's a loss in the range of 75 to 80 million Euro for the country.  

A done deal?  Well....they actually have to have permission of the EU....so it's not guaranteed.  I would imagine they will freak out a bit over this.

Are the Extreme 'Greens' Frustrated With This Coalition-Building?

 In simple terms.....yes.

If you counted up the far-left members of the SPD, and the more extreme members of the Green Party....they were expecting a full-left tilt on this government, and the wish-list openly discussed throughout 2021....is now cut and drifting.

Chief reason?  To build this coalition.....you had to bring in the FDP Party.  Once in the circle....they laid out the fundamental things they'd accept, and then isolated the talk for more extreme matters.

As one Green Party put it this weekend in a speech.....'it's like the FDP won the election'.

The attempt to bring in a speed limit to autobahns?  That idea was thrown out.  Tax increases?  That idea was thrown out.  

All of this building up to a division in the Green Party?  I would suggest that a good ten-percent of the Green members are not going to be 'happy-campers' for the next four years.  

Anyway to dump the FDP?  You could....but it'd mean a SPD-CDU-CSU government, and it appears that the SPD really doesn't want that type of situation to develop.  

Cost of Heating Discussion

 There was a brief update on N-TV this morning.....covering heating cost for a typical German family.

So, for a family of four, in 2020....with a house of 120 square meters (1,300 sq ft)....the heating cost was around 990 Euro on average (figure $1,200 roughly).

2021 cost?  1,260 Euro (figure near $1,500 roughly).

Now, in this estimate....you assume x-amount of insulation in the roof, decent windows, and a fairly new heating system.  

Worrying folks?  There is the suggestion out there that the government ought to issue a 'voucher' of some type (no one says the amount and I doubt if it's more than 100 Euro).  I kind of doubt that this will be a priority....other than folks with excessive increases (the folks who need newer systems, more insulation, or better windows).  

Lost Kid Story

 We had a disappearance over the weekend....over in the Bavarian town of Holzheim (about halfway between Munich and Stuttgart).  

What N-TV has on the episode this morning.....a 11-year old girl went 'jogging' in the mid-afternoon of Saturday.  It's mostly a rural farming area, and pretty hard to get lost.

It would be a standard lost-kid story except for this one odd thing.  The kid is adopted (going back around 7 to 8 years).  There were several of these kids in Bavaria....around 2013, which came out of a religious sect (called the 'Twelve Tribes'), which got into the news for strict rules and the use of canes to punish kids when necessary.  These kids (from the sect) got all farmed out to adoption situations.

The police and the girl's adopted parents?  They kinda think the biological-sect parents are involved in some fashion.

Czech police involved?  Well....yeah, because the biological-sect parents left Germany and live there now.  They've done a review of the parents, and the kid isn't there.  

So it's brewing as a lost kid story and you just wonder how this will develop.  

Sunday, October 17, 2021

What Skambraks Said

 Around early October (2021), this employee (middle-grade) of German public TV....went and published an article.  It wasn't on a ARD/ZDF site, and I suspect that 99-percent of newspapers and magazines turned down the commentary.

The guy in question?  Ole Skambraks.

So what he talked about?  More or less....the forbidden chatter on Covid that you can't dig into, converse about on public TV, or have dialog on.  

The North Hessen Journal?  They were one of the few that printed the commentary, and I'd recommend a read of article.  The American Thinker also printed this, but in a lesser form.

Somewhere in the middle of this written piece....he asks around 13 questions, which haven't been asked in any public forum on German TV.

Some of these questions?  

Why does gain-of-function research not get discussed much?  I would suggest that if you laid out this entire topic....half of the German public would suddenly get interested and demand know who is doing what and why you can't 'punish' them in some way.

Why can't you treat the people who had Covid....with natural immunity now....like the vaccinated crowd, and thus skip the shot for them? 

Why is the run-up period to Covid....treated more like a conspiracy situation than a science-discovery situation? 

There is an internal/confidential paper published at the German Interior Ministry over Covid.....which the public TV news people are aware of (suggesting they got a bootleg copy or were told bits and pieces).....but the entire report has never been released to the public or discussed by the public news people....why?

He brings up the Bremen Covid rate (extremely high on 4 Oct 2021 at rate of 113....yet the city has the highest rate of vaccine among any German city....why?

He brings up that the Netherlands reports significant numbers of side-effects.....yet Germans don't see that type of reporting or rates.  Purely good health, DNA, or just lazy reporting by the medical establishment?  Anyone could make up a fake reason for this....like Germans drinking real beer and that prevented side-effects....but that's fake news.  Why not speak to the topic? 

Finally, he points out that 99.49 percent of Brits under the age of 70 survive....yet this never gets into newsprint or openly discussed....but on the other hand....there is a bogus clam of half-a-million Brits likely to die getting full front-page reporting (no, the half-a-million didn't die in 2020 as predicted).  

He presents a good 20-minute read and it's a viewing.  The problem is.....just because you read or view something on ARD/ZDF (public TV in Germany)....does not mean it's conclusive or the end-of-the-discussion.  

I've sat at various times over the past six years and noted public forums where you had four experts 'drawing swords' over a topic....going only in one direction, and a single person to set the landscape to the opposing view.  So you eventually felt the four won the argument, and the network scored with a public forum selling you (the poor viewer) a bogus commentary.  

Unless you go out and spend twenty hours each week....digging through additional information....do you find some commentaries to be weak or misleading.  

Tesla Chatter

 So when Tesla starts up production in eastern Germany at the end of the year (at Grünheide)....is there a looming water shortage in the local area?

N-TV discussed this at length today.

For several months, this topic has been openly discussed in the local area.

The wording of gov't statements?  It kinda goes along the path of saying the plan is to produce X quantity, and the numbers show no issue at this point.  If they were to expand?  More discussion would occur, and someone might admit something at that point.

One obvious point which people generally miss?  This region....about 20 miles east of the center of Berlin....is surrounded by a minimum of 20 lakes within a 20-mile circle.  In the US sense of the term 'wet-lands'.....I'd probably give the region a 4-star rating.  So it's hard for me to view this as a potential water shortage one day.  

The fact that this continually gets dragged up?  Various groups want Tesla to 'fail' or to be hindered (owing some environment group support or money to survive). 

But here's the key thing....it's the first real business to invest tons of money to bring business into what was old DDR (East Germany), and it's hard to find working-class Germans who fret/worry or get negative about what Tesla is doing.  Real jobs are coming, and it's the first group to show 'guts'.  

Oh, and I should bring up this fact.....all of these German car companies who are short on chips and unable to go full-production?  Tesla?  He has his own chip capability.....so come December, as they assemble cars....they won't have the chip shortage problem.  

Covid Discussion

 Two days ago.....ARD news (Channel One, public TV in Germany) did an update over Covid, and statistical numbers about vaccinations.

What can be said....is that there simply isn't a precise number being openly discussed by RKI (Robert Koch Institute), who is THE AUTHORITY in Germany over vaccinations. 

Best official guess?  Two weeks ago, RKI noted that the new number was 80-percent of Germans fully-vaccinated (meaning both shots) and another four-percent in the funnel (one shot so far).

Why the 'mystery'?  Billing practices by doctors, and some folks being very particular about private data.  Are there Germans who've not admitted the vaccination?  The suggestion is there but I don't see the reality of this idea.

How long can this mystery on numbers exist?  That's the thing about it.....most logical Germans can't see an unknown number existing.  You should just press a button, and get a reliable number.

Folks who ran off to Turkey, Serbia or Russia....who got vaccinated with the 'good' stuff (noted by German authorities) or getting vaccinated with 3rd world vaccines (the not-so-good stuff)?  I don't think RKI wants to mix these numbers.  But I seriously doubt that you have more than 50,000 Germans who did the out-of-country thing for the Covid vaccine.

What this whole discussion is reminding me of?  This diesel engine numbers fiasco with VW.  

Does it present a problem with the new government?  Well....if the virus numbers get worse on hospitalization or infection....how does this relate with vaccinated people?  You have to stand on a baseline, and say X and Y.....give you some type of end-result.  Presently, X is the unknown.  

That Star of David Episode

 About two weeks ago, I essayed a piece or two over Gil Ofarim's hotel experience at a hotel in Leipzig (the Star of David episode).  To simplify the story....Ofarim (a noted singer and probably recognized by a majority of Germans) was checking into a upscale hotel in Leipzig.  He says that the clerk said something about his Star of David (to the effect you shouldn't wear that around the city).  Ofarim, being Jewisih, took offense to this, and got hyped up.....sending this off into social media and creating a massive blitz for a week.

Well....new video has come out, and it shows Ofarim walking into the hotel....without the Star of David chain on his neck.  N-TV talked about this here in the AM.  Two different news sources have viewed the video footage and say in a blunt way.....there's no Star of David chain on Ofarim's neck as he enters (at least you can't see it).

Where things stand at this point?  I hate to suggest it....but the whole thing seems rather 'fake' at this point, and social media folks will fall apart if this was a creation out of thin air. 


The Propaganda Story

 It's a bit amusing and would beg questions.

ZDF (Channel Two, public TV in Germany) has a second network called ZDF-Info.  I'd call it a documentary type network.....they go out....pay something for documentary pieces done, and air them.  

I probably watch the network a total of two hours per year (it's just not that popular).  If you go and ask a hundred working-class Germans....it wouldn't surprise me if 70-percent admit having never watched it (in twenty-odd years).  

So they had picked up this four-part mini series....called 'China Versus the USA: Clash of the Superpowers'.  

For a brief while, it was up and could be seen.  Then some fairly harsh criticism came up.

I noticed this morning via 'TheN24.com'.....they picked up this documentary story, the criticism, and then mentioned....the series is 'gone' from the ZDF library.

Deal?  What 'TheN24' says is that the production crew to this documentary was Singaporean.  One of the odd characteristics of Singapore.....they are fairly pro-China (some might even suggest extremely pro-China).  So the series in question....came off as pro-China/anti-US.

As criticism poured into ZDF....the idea was that it was a propaganda piece that they had bought into....whether they realized it or not.

To be honest over the entire content of the ZDF media-library.....if you sat five propaganda experts down and watched all of their content....probably one of every five documentary pieces might be labeled this way (my humble view).  In fact, if you wanted to become an expert on propaganda....I'd endorse their library as a great training tool.  

My only question at the end of this episode?  These guys who signed off the 'purchase' of the documentary....had to sit down and watch the four-part series.  Did they not consider somewhere in the midst of this....it being valued as propaganda?  Or were they just in some rush, saying they had watched the series....when they hadn't?  

To be honest, after all this chatter....I'd like to watch the series now....to value it myself as propaganda.  

Saturday, October 16, 2021

Environmental Chatter

 The split to the Green Party - Friday's For the Future 'team'?  Well....in the past day or two....this draft paper has gotten out over the top ten priorities of the Scholz coalition deal, and frankly....the Friday's 'crew' are pretty bitter about the environmental agreement.

You can go back to the past two years and find various 'hypes' going on, with the Friday's kids pumped up and thinking that massive change was finally going to occur with this German election.

What now?  There's only two potential outcomes.  Either they accept some 'token' changes to be on the table (agreeable to the FDP-SPD-Green government) or they get back into action with more protests.  

We are in the midst of the approaching winter, and I kinda doubt that the Friday's team wants to get pumped up in the winter period.  So there's probably a couple of months before you will see their action plan.  

Update on Kongsberg

 N-TV (commercial German news) had an update this AM.....from the Kongsberg, Norway killing-event of a couple of days ago (I've already mentioned this in an essay).

They say from the five victims killed by the radicalized terrorist.....one was a German who'd lived long-term in Norway.  Age or details beyond that?  None.  

Mental illness issues are continually talked about on the 37-year old killer (he was captured alive).

Moving Seats Story

 It is a bit amusing to bring up this topic, but there's a new problem brewing in the German Bundestag.  ARD (public TV) brought up the subject today.

So for a number of years, the FDP Party representatives in the Bundestag have been forced to sit next to the AfD Party folks (right-wingers).  The FDP has said 'enough', and with the coalition change coming.....they want the CDU/CSU folks to be forced into a seat-change...sitting next to the AfD.

Reaction by the CDU folks?  They don't like this idea very much.

Odds of this seating arrangement change coming?  I'd give it better than 50-percent chance.  

The 5-to-6 Meter Flood Scenario

 This week, there was hype going on with the Ahr Valley region (western side of Germany, Pfalz/NRW states, where flooding occurred two months ago).

To lay the landscape.....there's a valley region where the Ahr River runs through it.  The 'walls' of this valley really aren't that far apart.  Along the path of this small river.....a couple dozen villages lay.  So on this one summer day....heavy rainfall occurred (micro-burst would be the better term to use).  Lot of rain....a front that moved very slowly.....drainage only leading to the Ahr River....marginal warnings given.....and a flood of five to six meters occur (16 to 20 feet above normal levels).  

Massive damage, deaths, and a mess which probably will take a minimum of five years (some even suggest ten years).  

So the chatter has started up that maybe you should only rebuild in safe areas, and maybe the government should 'acquire' any property in the new flood zone.....paying off the residents, and forcing change upon the community (whether they like it or not).

This talk.....is basically settling on the idea that you have to expect in the future the potential of 5-to-6 meters of flood being possible. But if you go this far just in the Ahr Valley.....what about the rest of Germany?  

The plain truth is.....a micro burst in any of a thousand communities would deliver the same effect.

Is all of this leading to some magnificent German vision that billions need to be spent....to hinder or prevent the micro burst scenario?  More or less, and you just have to wonder where the money comes from....to fund 'saving ourselves'. 

Are German Soccer Fans Returning to the Stadiums?

 Well....no.

N-TV picked up the subject this morning and discussed it at some length. 

Most of the states have redone the stadium-Covid rules, and full attendance (meaning if the place had 40,000 seats, they could now sell 40,000 tickets) is possible.

Occupancy rates around the country.....less than full.

In Frankfurt, the local rule is the 3G situation in effect, and that created a boycott of fans.  The arena even has gone to offer free testing as part of the entry deal.

So where does this lead onto?  I would suggest the bulk of this 2021/2022 season will be a profit problem for clubs to resolve.  They need the seats filled, with happy fans drinking.  They need the 'sky-boxes' filled with VIP fans. Presently, it's still early in the season, and real enthusiasm will probably return as 2022 arrives.

That Norway Attacker 'Path'

 Well....the smoke has cleared, and what you can say is that the bow-and-arrow attacker from this week's event....has a bit of history.  This came up via N-TV as I watched it this AM.

Back in 2015, the police were alerted that this guy seemed 'unhinged'.  The police evaluated the guy, and simply said that they didn't think he was capable of a 'politically motivated act of violence'.

2017 comes around, and he puts a video up....announcing now that he's a Muslim, and there's more reports to the police.  Again, they evaluate things and say that there is no specified threat from the video chatter.

The current chatter from the police (after the act)?  They say he's not ideology-driven.  In various ways.....they simply identify the guy as a 'nut' (my word of choice).

Should he have been put into a facility for treatment in 2015?  Probably.  But all of this is going to involve a judge, and questions over when you say 'enough' and house a guy in a mental facility.

What you can generally say is that from 2015 on....every year that passes....this guy gets deeper into an illusion, and probably unable to grasp reality.  Terrorist?  He might confess to some religion conviction, but whatever drove him to that....probably was just another illusion over the top of an existing illusion.  

Friday, October 15, 2021

The Effect of the 16-Year-Old Voting Deal

 Based on talk today, it appears that in 2022....the SPD-Green-FDP government will approve the 16 and 17 year old group (figure around 2-million) to have a vote in federal and EU elections.

Affect?

First, for the CDU.....it's the bitter end of any significant wins nationally.  I would take a guess that around 90-percent of the 2-million 'kids'....will vote Green Party, and it's going to put the CDU in a rough position on politics for the future.

Second, for industry and commerce....a lot of the Greta enthusiasms will drive the future economy, and likely drive some companies out of Germany. 

Third, a fair number of these 'kids' will not be able to comprehend tax structure or the affect on commerce.....so when they attempt to suggest massive change.....their votes will matter.  

Fourth, whether the teachers agree or the politicians grasp this.....by the time a German kid is 13 and 14 years old....you will have to spend a fair amount of time talking about economics, politics, and the actions of running a country.  Some of these kids will be utterly shocked at the complex nature of their local, state and federal government.  

Finally, I think in various ways, it will go and suggest to successful Germans.....there's no need to anchor yourself down....to stay in the country.  So the exit number over the decade....I think.....will increase.  

Some Agreement on the New Government Expectations

 Some points of the new SPD-Green-FDP government are coming out in point-papers that the three have agreed upon.  Focus discussed this in the afternoon....some positive....some negative:

1.  The three agreed to fund in some way the construction of 400k new apartments of which they (the federal gov't) will pay for a quarter of the cost.  Who gets the money?  Probably city government with some backing of private banks, and a general rent-controlled situation (not openly discussed).  

2.  The end of coal-mining?  To be ended early....maybe by 2030.  I don't expect this to stick because of continual discussions of the grid.

3.  The 6.5 cents per kWh of power....being a renewable energy surcharge?  Going down by almost half.  It's not a big deal, but every cent now counts.

4.  12 Euro is the set minimum wage in 2022.  Don't expect small businesses to be happy over the mandate.

5.  Something called 'citizens money' (burgergeld) will replace the Hartz IV welfare money.  More money for welfare? Well....NO, they didn't really say that.  If you ask me....it's just a name change, and probably a 3-to-4 percent increase on the monthly amount.  No one will be allowed to call it welfare money....to make everyone happy.

6.  Something will be done over 'weakened' pensions (meaning mostly people who make less than 1,000 Euro a month.  They haven't said how this will occur.  I will admit....it's just a large crowd of Germans who worked the last forty years of their life on a meager salary, and their pension deal is crap.  But you'd have to force the younger workers to agree to a larger contribution.....of which they will whine over the impact to their lives.  

7.  Speed limits on autobahns?  No.  

8.  The statutory debt brake is staying.

9.  Tax increases?  NO.  There is some agreement that minor upgrades on investments might occur....beyond that.....no tax increases.  A problem?  They have a ton of money from the flood episode and Covid that took big cash out of the bucket.  So somewhere down the line.....there has to be cuts coming in 2022.

10.  Finally, to the subject of 16-year old kids voting in the Bundestag or EU elections?  Yeah, they agreed to this.  A big deal?  It basically puts the CDU in a harsh position for the 2025 election....where a large segment of the youth vote (16 to 21) will vote Green Party in that election (I'd expect it to be near 90-percent of the group to be Green Party).  A deep agenda on the environment and shutting down various industries?  Yeah, I'd expect the 2025 to 2029 to be a pretty difficult era for working-class Germans.  

Test Story

 It's serious but it's also comical as well. Focus did the update around noon today, and I'll try to tell in a simplified version.

So over in the city of Wolverhampton, England (about 60 miles NW of London)....they had a lab there in town (43,000 residents) that did Covid test results.

They say from the second week of September until the mid-part of October....400,000 tests were conducted for Covid at the lab.  

A negative result is what most folks got and it generally makes you feel good.

Well....they say now.....43,000 of these results were a false-negative.  To be honest, as you read over everything....no one is sure of anything.  

So they want these people....some going back a month now....to be re-tested.  

The fact that you might have been ill with Covid but told it was NOT Covid?  Then now, a re-test?  Maybe the bulk of the 43,000 results were just crappy results, and were true-negative anyway?  Well....you might make that case as well.

Will people show up for a re-test?  Hard to say.  If I were contacted.....I'd probably just shake my head.  

Cannabis Chatter in Germany

 Since the election....it's almost daily chatter now going on....how cannabis will be legalized by the incoming Scholz government (SPD-Greens-FDP).

N-TV picked up the topic this morning.

The pieces and parts to the chatter?  You have to go and legalize cultivation and farming....connected to marijuana/cannabis, as the first step.

Then you have to allow transport around Germany....via some type of license.

Finally, you have to allow a legal sales shop atmosphere to exist (like in Amsterdam).

The amount on a sale?  This has conflicting views....some folks think that 15 grams is the max (FDP Party position).  Some folks suggest a max of 30 grams (the Green Party).  I should note here....at any shop in Amsterdam....5 grams is the normal max.  Thirty grams?  Even a daily-smoker probably would have enough for two weeks minimum.

What the German government says about occasional-smokers (at least once a month) of cannabis in numbers?  They suggest 1.2-million.  On the number they mention....I'd suggest it's way off, and just in a urbanized location like Frankfurt....probably 20-percent of the adult population is the occasional user.

As for taxation?  Somewhere in this legalization effort....they have to cover the tax issue, and this might be the shocker to users....that with legalization and taxation....you might be paying the standard price today (being illegal) and 10-percent more on top of that for taxes.  

How I expect this to go?  A commission gets formed in January, to evaluate the Amsterdam model of rules/regulations.  By April, they report back, and by May....cultivation and movement rules are in place, with shops able to open (by license form) by mid-summer of 2022.  Yes, Amsterdam-like coffee shops open in Berlin, Hamburg, and Frankfurt by late-summer.  The only shock?  Illegal sales still being cheaper than the legal sales?  Yeah, that's my general prediction.  Oh, and 15 to 30 gram limit?  It'll never occur....it'll be something like 5 to 10 grams per purchase.  

Inflation Chatter

 There's a terrific piece on Focus this morning.....with commentary by Jens Fleischhauer (he's always a bit blunt).  The topic?  Inflation, and taxation.

I'd strongly recommend a viewing.

As he says....one of the top SPD Party members came to advise people....just don't heat as much....in a comment....."The cheapest kilowatt hour is still the one that is not used." (Bailey, EU rep)

I would suggest in the past two weeks....this whole heating cost issue and inflation has moved up and become the number one topic on nightly news.  Even public forums have picked up the discussion item now.  

What is This 'Freedom-Day' Talked About?

 The term was created in the past year and is supposed to indicate the day when people treat Covid like the regular flu.  

If you asked me over the statistical average of Germans already in this belief....I'd probably judge it near the 15-to-20 percent level.  These are people who simply want to move on, and get normal once again.  

In the past month, if you watch various public forum shows from ARD/ZDF....it's been mentioned.  

Doctor virus experts?  They discount it entirely.  

The general problem?  The hype on Covid in Germany has been going on for almost twenty months now.  In terms of the economy and personal finances....everyone has suffered to some degree.  Psychological experts tend to suggest that a quarter of all kids have some mental issues brewing because of the school shutdowns, and even some experts suggest the same number of adults have a stress issue in their lives.  

I sat a few weeks ago viewing some news show which wanted to hype this individual who had a public phobia of some type....where they were in absolute fear in public places....worried over someone coughing or touching some surface which might have Covid smeared over it.  Even I'll admit if I'm in a grocery and someone does an extended cough.....I'm likely to vacate the store in a matter of sixty seconds.

Will 'Freedom-Day' ever come?  I'm personally doubtful.  But here's the thing.....we are all dragging the Covid-anchor around, and there's no doubt that the vaccination business, treatment strategy, hygiene rules and recovered crowd....must lead to a 'Freedom-Day' of some type.  People die from the flu on a regular basis anyway, so maybe it's not such a bad idea to just say we've entered a bold new era....create a national holiday of some type......open up the pubs/bars for everyone, and just get on with regular living again. 

Hints of Serious Inflation

 Via a couple of German news outlets yesterday, as they got to discussing inflation and increasing prices....the cost a German bakery brotchen came up.

Cheapo-wise, in the bulk bag at the grocery presently, you could buy 10 for 3.95 Euro (figure around $5 US).  I know if you were in Germany in the 1980s....a bag of ten probably went for 3 DM ($1.70)....but it's been edging up every decade.

I should note....that's the cheapo bag.  If you wanted the 4-star ones baked fresh by the shop, they were closer to .70 Euro cents each.  

So the conversation is going on.....that .70 Euro cent fresh 4-star brotchen is edging up to .85 Euro cents presently, and some conversations indicate that by spring....it might be 1-Euro per brotchen.  For some folks....that's a bit shocking.


Thursday, October 14, 2021

Noise Story

 Our regional public news outlet (HR) went and did an interesting report over a noise problem.

So to encapsulate the story....for about a year, in Darmstadt (about 30 min driving south of Frankfurt)....there's been this hum/noise.....off and on....mostly at night....but not all the time.

For some folks, it's triggered sleepless nights.  Some report nausea and vomiting. 

Best description?  Kinda like tinnitus.  

General area affected?  If you go through all the chatter....mostly NE and center of town.  Some suggestions of a turbine or generator.  But no real consensus.

Turning into a major investigation?  Well....they are talking across the community and hoping to build some kind of map to isolate the noise zone.  

Darmstadt is one of my more favorite towns.....not too big, and easy access via the Bahn.  Size-wise, maybe 3km across and 10km N by S.    

Berlin City Election Still in the News

 We are three weeks since the German election, and the chaos from the Berlin city election.  Problems readily identified from the chaos?  No....some hints (from RBB, public TV in Berlin) say that the mess is still not transparent, and it might be weeks more before they are done.

People connected to the investigation?  Quiet for the most part.

There's supposed to be a meeting of officials tomorrow (Friday).  The idea of conducting a whole new election?  I don't think anyone wants to do it....but mostly because they haven't fixed the problems (that might take a month or two).  

On social media, someone put up the idea of running a temp-city government for a year or two....then having an early election.  I don't think there's any real enthusiasm for that either.

A comedy of sorts?  More or less.  They probably run more proficient elections in Paraguay, than were run in Berlin.  

That Norway Attack From Last Evening

 About 40 miles SW of Oslo, Norway....in the small town of Kongsberg last night....this attack started up in the mid-town area around 6:16 PM.

Police say that this guy was a resident-Dane (37 years old) attacked a number of folks with a bow and arrow situation.  Five dead, and several wounded.

Cause?  Well....the discussion goes to radicalized Islam.  

The police captured the guy alive, and have talked to him.  He readily admits his actions.

'Known to the police'?  That statement has been made, and it usually indicates that he's had run-in's with the law on more than one occasion.  Then the Norwegian news folks say that he's had episodes that required Norwegian medical care.  No, they didn't say mental health but they left you hanging on the state of medical care and what exactly was his problem.

I've gone through at least a dozen news sites (German, BBC, Dane, and Norwegian).  Based on the general account.....it doesn't sound like a migrant guy.....that he was a pure up-and-up Dane, who choose to live in Norway, and probably was a paranoid schizophrenic situation.  

Pretty weird, if you ask me.

Why 2035 Matters

 It's not discussed much, but N-TV brought up the topic and some Germans will act surprised.  By 2035 (14 years away), the EU has a regulation that says all gas/diesel cars will be forbidden from roads.  

The topic has been on my mind a bit.

Personally, I don't see how this will occur.

E-cars being in the majority by 2030?  Unless they drop the price by a radical amount......I don't see this majority situation existing.

All this pro-E-car and EU vision....mostly working only in urbanized areas?  That's another part of the discussion.  There are dozens of areas around Germany....fairly rural in nature, and attracting people.

The trend of people to move out of the urbanized areas (like Bremen or Hamburg)?  Over the past twenty years.....the trend has existed.  People don't want the urbanized landscape that much, and are willing to drive forty to sixty kilometers to achieve happiness.....on a daily basis.

What happens to historical cars?  No one ever talks about that side of the situation.

If you asked me about this 2035 regulation....I'd tell you that it'll come and go, without any enforcement in Germany.  

Wolf Story

 I sat and watched N-TV (commercial German news) this morning.  Highlight?  Wolves in urban areas of Germany.....no kidding.

For the past four years, it's rare to go an entire week....without one of the public or commercial networks talking about wolves or wolf problems.  Up through the 1980s.....there just wasn't any wolves in West Germany, and so after the wall comes down....you start to notice reports.  

The push has been.....no hunting of wolves.....let them repopulate around Germany.

In the past year, reports of sightings have occurred in urbanized areas (not just the small villages of 500).  So the German hunting association has now hinted....you can't allow cases where a pack of wolves have moved into a city like Kassel or Stuttgart.

Over in Saxony, in Hannover.....there's a report of wolves seen in the city park there.

Allowing finally a 'hunt'?  No one in the federal government has said that, and I seriously doubt that the new SPD-Green-FDP government would go and allow it.

State governments?  Totally different story.  But even there....if a state signed off on a dozen wolves to be hunted....a court challenge would occur.

Eventually, some kid is going to be attacked in some city park by a wolf, and public perception will change overnight.  But until that moment.....the hunting concept is not going to be accepted.  

Wednesday, October 13, 2021

EU and Gas Chaos in the News

 N-TV had a chat or two over the EU picking up the escalating cost problem of natural gas in Europe today.

One idea being thrown around.....having the EU to 'purchase-in-bulk' natural gas....at one single price, and 'selling' the natural gas down the line.  In some way, the EU would own the gas.

Just asking me the logic to this.....someone would have to lose money for this to make sense.  I can't imagine the EU being willing to lose money.

Another measure was the idea of handing out vouchers to low-income families.  EU-vouchers?  Well....yeah.  Again, I can't imagine the EU being that willing to hand out much more than a 100 Euro per family.

EU-mandated tax cuts?  That's on the table, but there's a vast amount of money that countries make off the natural gas deal and I can't imagine them being willing to give up more than 250 Euro in a single year.

All of this leading to meetings?  OH YEAH.....a series of EU meetings to admit that it's not possible to resolve this. 

Getting more natural gas delivered via Nord Stream II pipe?  Well....the Russians say a new purchase agreement would have to be written.  So they aren't willing to help in any way.

So....settle back for the next six weeks to be mostly frustrating in nature.  Germany could resolve this by cutting 25-percent of their tax for the winter period, but that's tax revenue lost.  

Dragging the EU into a Mess?

 On some news sites around Germany this morning....there's this hyped-up idea being openly discussed....dragging the EU into the escalating natural gas/electricity crisis.  

Who is calling for EU action?  It leads mostly back presently to Spain and France.  I suspect in a week or two....because of public forum discussions in Germany....even the current Merkel coalition (Scholz hasn't arrived yet) will agree....maybe the EU can do something.

So the question is....what can they accomplish at the EU?

They could go and write a simple five-line bill, and pass it in less than a week.....ordering all taxes related to natural gas and electricity to be cut in half.....meaning a massive tax revenue hole existing.  But if you asked me....would this even help?

I checked with the 2020 numbers on electricity....around 53-percent of what you pay for electricity is related to taxation/levies.  That escalation has been going on since 2014.  Around that same time period....the tax/levy situation on industry use of electricity also went up in a major way.  

If you gaze at numbers for taxation/levies on natural gas?  Those numbers show a 4-billion Euro income for the German government.  Back in 1999, the tax jumped from .18 cents per kWh (that was the normal tax stance) to a present rate of .55 cents per kWh (at least in 2020).

If the Germans were ordered by the EU to do a six-month pause on the .55 cent rate (down to .27 cents)?  That might have a huge affect, but there's a ton of money missing out of the tax revenue bucket then.  

Will the EU even have the guts to go this direction?  I seriously doubt it.  They might talk about this, and maybe create a short-term 5-percent cut on natural gas taxation....just to say they did something.

So a more appropriate question is....shouldn't someone go and address the cost factor of the government in general, and just say that maybe it's time to do a 10-percent cut in government 'services'?