There's a piece reported on N-TV (commercial German news) today which talks of Moscow's intent to describe the likely scenario of Russia and Ukraine.
If you gaze at the Ukraine map....on the far eastern side....on the Sea of Azov....there's this port area (Mariupol). It's about 20 miles from the border, and has a population of 430k (fairly big city). If you asked locals about the ethnic split....it's 50-percent Ukrainians.....50-percent Russians.
The suggestion in this N-TV discussion....is that this one single area is the area of interest. States required to achieve 'success'? Two states: Donetsk and Luhansk...an area about the size of 'greater' LA or Chicago.
What would happen here? You'd stage a invasion of sorts....wanting to 'mark' the line about twenty miles west of Mariupol. Course, this would trigger a serious exodus of Ukrainians trying to leave (migrants then) and conflict drawing the Europeans/NATO into the mess.
Permanent staging of Russian troops in the region? I would be guessing that a minimum of twenty-thousand would have to permanently stay there....to ensure no future conflicts.
The US or the EU trying to control this mess? That would be mostly a joke.
For the record, I'll also make this observation....across all of the Ukraine....there are at least thirty-odd ethnic groups (not just plain Ukrainian folks or Russians).
On the positive side? It'd give the CNN folks something to talk about other than US politics or Trump. But you'd have a massive refugee issue going on for at least a year.
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