Before the end of 2022, I feel pretty confident that Germany will have passed the legislation to make Cannabis/Marijuana sales legal in Germany. So I'll offer these general predictions:
1. While the massive control apparatus will be in the federal rules written, it will be up to each state (16 of them) to run the legalized sales.
2. Cost decreasing because of legal sales? NO. You now involve brick-and-mortar establishments, which mean rental costs, heat, electricity, advertising, and employee cost (to include health insurance, pension tax, etc). If anything, I expect the average cost of a gram to escalate over the illegal cost by 25-percent (yeah, it will be shocking to realize this). Don't forget....sales tax will also be figured into this mess (figure 19-percent).
3. Illegal sales still continuing? Yes, without any doubt. Just on cost factor alone, probably one-quarter of all weed sales in the country will still be done illegally (my prediction).
4. The same guys selling illegally today on the street....hired to run store-front weed shops? NO.
While they had the knowledge on the product....on running a actual store-front, I don't see them being that capable (or trustworthily).
5. How quick will this take off? Just a humble guess here, but I would imagine at least 300 cities/towns in Germany have at least one weed shop opened in the first month of legalization. In a city like Mainz (200k residents), there's probably going to be six to eight 'head-shops' around town. In Frankfurt (750k-plus residents), there might be twenty 'head-shops'.
6. Open hostility by the government that illegal sales still occur.....a year into legalization? No doubt. But just on cost factor alone....a lot of people will ask why legal weed is 25-percent more than illegal weed.
7. Finally, the government will have a legit/accurate method of assessing how much weed/Marijuana is used by Germans on a daily/weekly basis. It'll be openly discussed.
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