The Health Ministry stood up today and announced a new concept. They would create a thousand health-kiosk stations across Germany.....more or less to handle changing of bandages, checking blood pressure, and offering some health advice.
Gimmick? Well....it would be mostly run by nurses and paid for by the federal government. Placement? They'd end up in the most rural places....small villages in the middle of nowhere.
No one much says the cost of this, or how it'd be funded.
It's an odd story....out of Focus this PM.
So it goes this way....the Minister of Economics of Germany (Habeck, Greens), who is also the vice-Chancellor....came up with this suspicion of sensitive information getting into the hands of Putin and the Kremlin.
Reaction? Well....Habeck called the Office for the Protection of the Constitution (the German FBI guys) onto two officials from the Federal Ministry of Economics. And there lies this idea that they are spies for Putin.
So far? The government just says they have an 'emotional attachment' to Russia. There's some visits in the past, but it's just odd how they worded this statement.
What'll happen now? Probably six months of investigation and then some court case.
Here's the thing though....if you started browsing and really digging....there might be forty agents of the Kremlin.....in some type of government job, or associated with various members of the three major parties. It's stuff that could destroy a government if you dug deep and found a number of people like this.
Now? I think Habeck and the whole upper level will be suspicious of people and order reviews.
On the positive side? They didn't find the Chinese, French, British, or American spies in the government (just being sarcastic).
Lets say that I (as a company) choose to make a product, and after all the research/development, taxation on the property/company, and estimate on man-hours (with cost), I can make the product for X.
Then I work up profits, to figure bonus activity, profit for the stock-holders, the advertising and essentials for a company to exist at this level, and the situation is 40-percent over X.
Then these gentlemen come over, who are not into business or economics, but strictly politicians.
They look at things and decide that you can't do this 40-percent over X, and so therefore.....they intend to tax you (probably in the range of a quarter of the 40-percent over X).
What would likely happen next?
In most cases, you'd (as the CEO/board) would go and move either the headquarters itself....out of the country, or make the radical suggestion of taking the jobs for production, and relocating them to another country with a lesser cost threshold. This means the genius folks who felt you couldn't do the 40-percent over X....loses jobs. New companies to make up for those lost jobs? Well....no. No one would be that stupid.
I'm not saying this would occur on a massive scale, but all you need is one company out of twenty to react, and trigger lesser confidence in producing or selling a product out of that country.....to cause some concern.
So to suggest this type of gimmick in the upstart of a recession? It makes for great headlines, and the general public gets all hyped-up about taking that profit away. Then six months later, they wake up to realize their company is downsizing....to make the product in land far away. The politician can't do much but stand there and admit they chased them out.
Countries that would really benefit out of this scenario? India, China, etc.
The excess profit chatter is something that you need to stand back and admire the landscape upon....because there are always options to make products elsewhere, and cheaper.....lessening regulation 'woes'.
1. Today is the last day for discount gas. If you drive around, various stations have put cones or tape....telling the public they are out of fuel to sell. I'm not saying it's a national crisis....but it's just an odd feature of German life, where you might spend an hour driving around....to find one station with fuel to sell today. The 30-Euro-cent discount ends at midnight.
2. Updated German inflation rate reported this AM? 7.9-percent at this point in 2022. No matter where you go....the kino, the pubs, or the pizzeria....you do a cost analysis of what it was a year ago.
3. The EU and German Economic 'political-bosses' for the national level business this AM....say that a levy-or-tax will exist for companies shortly, if they make excess profits. Who will decide excess? Well....they will (the politicians). You can just sense....things will go south as some companies choose to lessen production and trigger a crisis....to make a point about their production, and their profits.
1. A fair number of German houses that are non-solar paneled....will go into crisis mode because of the heat/electrical cost that occurred over the winter. Virtually every single solar dealer/install team.....will be working seven days a week from April to December of 2023....trying to install a massive amount of panels.
2. I think backyard wind-generators will be introduced, and get immediate negativity by neighbors over the 'hum'. These units, costing less than 5,000 Euro, will become a major topic of discussion.
3. Finally, a number of newer homes without fireplaces....will be reviewed to add a outdoor chimney, and a wood-heating unit somewhere in the house.
All of these will lead to most homes in the winter of 2023 using one-third to 50-percent less natural gas.
It would be fifty years ago this past week....that the 1972 Olympics opened in Munich.
Last night, the German government announced that it was funding a 'victim-fund' for Israel folks who were in some ways of the terror attack that occurred.
Amount? 28 million Euro.
Fifty years later? Well....yeah.
No data but I would suggest that more than half of the participants are passed on by this point.
Front-page news? I'd say it's on page two or three of most German newspapers.
How big a deal was the attack, on the minds of Germans? For roughly a week, it ran as absolute number one news, and just about everyone over the age of fifteen at the time....have a clear memory of the incident. If you mentioned it today to folks in the 18 to 30 age group...I doubt if you could find more than a quarter of them remember 'something' of what happened.
The terror incident being connected to the German Red Army? Yes. No one much argues over that point, and if you get into a discussion....a few people will ask if the East German Stassi (Secret Police) might have engaged in planning for this.
It was an interesting story highlighted by HR (my regional public TV network for Hessen). So, since 1951.....the weather guys have counted the number of hours per day....of sunshine. Yes, sunshine records.
This summer (June to 30 August) is now labeled as the most sunny period of Hessen, and German history, since 1951. A total of 857 hours of sunshine for the 3-month period.
Previous record? 2003, with 814 hours of sunshine.
Relating this also to rainfall? Well....Hessen also had only 85 liters of rain per square meter for the same period. Normal average? 222 liters. For drought-chatter, it's pretty dismal.
The positive? If you had a solar panel situation....you probably had a all-time record of energy creation.
What can you attribute the sun-days to? Well....high-pressure systems brought in limited clouds, and stayed for days at a time. On at least two occasions, we had some weird African 'dust-cloud' that came
1. Yes, the dollar and Euro are now 1 to 1. How many years? It's probably been 18 years since you had such buying power with the dollar.
2. Russian natural gas flowing through Nord Stream I? No. As of yesterday, it was halted as the Russians say they are on a maintenance episode. When it comes back on? No one says much. If the Russians wanted to turn up the pressure....they'd delay this by a entire month.
3. Today is the last day of the 90-day discount gas price routine (30 Euro cents off from the taxation business). This AM, E10 fuel sells per liter at 1.84. Tomorrow morning....it'll be 30 cents added....hitting 2.14 Euro minimum (if not more).
4. The mandate that was supposed to start in the fall for home-office (forced upon companies even if they had no Covid)? Halted. The FDP Party pushed the Minister of Labor (Heil, SPD) to dump that idea on mandates.
5. The RBB (public TV for Berlin) board has met and agreed....NO more bonus activity for any employee. Of the dozen-odd public TV networks.....they were the only one doing bonuses.
Sabine Menkens wrote a great article piece via WELT this AM, and if you can find a copy of today's paper....it's worth a read. Topic? One in three young people (meaning in the 16 to 21 age group)....tend to observe conspiracy theories, and are susceptible.
So this leads onto a second issue found in the study....four out of ten young people aren't trusting of people and their 'good intentions'.
Social media issues? I would personally say that half the problem lies in regular use in German society.
Skepticism building up? You can walk around and find a lot of Germans....even those over the age of thirty....who have some element of skepticism going on in their judgement.
I'm not saying the article piece is a shocker, but it lays out the numbers which no one knew much about.
If you've been following German news for the past month...a lot of hype exists over some natural gas providers being in severe economic trouble.
The national plan to rescue them? Well....a levy or tax to be handed to the 'users' on top of the current cost. Depending on your situation....some were destined to pay almost double what they were planning to pay.
This morning.....a change came from the upper levels of the government. If you were a natural gas provider hoping to get 'help'....they threw a new problem to you. They want you (the provider) to show your past bonus program for employees. If you had a lot of bonus activity.....you probably won't collect much of anything 'extra'.
Fair? Well...I'm not going to discuss that matter.
But I would imagine after you've gone through the bonus chatter.....roughly 95-percent of the missing money is still an issue. This may sound good for the cameras and public, but I suspect in the end....the tax or levy will still be around 90-percent of what was discussed before.
ARD (public TV, Channel One) went and did a big discussion over the 9-Euro monthly train/bus ticket success.
As this program closes out tomorrow....all total across Germany, around 52-million tickets were sold.
To describe the program.....for June, July and August, you could walk up to a machine on the first of the month, and buy one single ticket for the month....traveling anywhere by bus or train (except the use of high speed Inter-City or ICE trains.
My description? It was an interesting ticket, for local or regional travel. If you lived in a rural area with minimum bus or rail possibilities....most didn't see any advantage to it.
If you asked me about how many in my village use bus travel to some degree (400 houses roughly), discounting kids....I'd say that one out of three residents in the village will use the bus to reach the city on a weekly basis. Probably a third of the village is rock-solid anti-public trans, and the ticket didn't matter.
My negative view of the program centers on over-filled trains....particularly for weekend trips. If you attempted to carry this on, the lateness issue would build up, and chaos would follow in highly populated cities as people felt energized to use public transportation.
Here's the thing though....in urbanized areas (like Frankfurt or Berlin).....I think the program was embraced and probably two-thirds of their populations are eager to see the 9-Euro program continue.
The federal government reaction? Well....it took billions of Euro to help make the ticket possible. Presently, I'd say the fed folks are extremely hesitant to take this on. At the state level? They are peppy but admit they don't have the cash to make a 9-Euro monthly ticket possible. Some suggest a 49-Euro to 69-Euro monthly ticket is possible. The public is more receptive to the 9-Euro deal.....it would appear.
What'll happen in the end? My guess is that several states will figure out some 50-Euro deal...that limits you to strictly your town or region (not the entire country) for a full-month.
1. There was an event early this AM with the German Federal Minister of Economics (Robert Habeck, Green Party, and vice-Chancellor), who noted the approaching issue of the economy.
The chief quote here? "The transformation is taking place."
In simple terms, he says the Russian natural gas situation isn't coming back and a whole new world is opening up. Then he says bluntly: "It won't come back either."
At the same early meeting....the EU President Ursula von der Leyen got up and said that the electricity 'market' needs a reform and it'll occur by mid-2023. What this means? Unknown.
What all this means? The day of Europe being a major customer of Russian natural gas is ending and it's going to be a strange era to survive. I would suggest the next five years will be chaotic for the political parties.
2. Pretty report over at N-TV this morning.....discussing the public TV network NDR (NW Germany network). Various journalists have signed a letter to ask for removal of the management because they are suggested to be mouth-pieces of the CDU Party.
I would imagine around the other dozen public networks....others would state the case that their management have become mouth-pieces of the SPD or Green Party.
If you tried to measure public TV political chatter from the 1980s to today.....I think the general public (over the age of 60) would say there's twice as much political talk today on public TV networks....as in the 1980s. Its hard to say if this is a positive or negative.
3. A poll over at RTL asked if the government relief measures were enough to help with the increasing inflation issue. Roughly 60-percent of Germans said 'no', and were blunt.....they have seen nothing to suggest an improvement.
4. The topic of the public forum show on ARD last night (Hart Aber Fair)? Drought of the future, are we living our future now?
If you were looking for an optimistic feeling....that show last night was NOT the one to view. You can watch it here at this site.
I think about half-way through it...I found something else to watch. On my doom-and-gloom scale (1-10)....it was maxing out at a eleven.
5. German economist/energy expert Manuel Frondel did a talk yesterday.....suggesting there's massive electrical pricing to be on the horizon. He avoided saying the precise amount, but it wouldn't surprise me if the grid price was 30-percent higher by December.
It is a bit amusing.
Under the German national weather service, for decades....there was a defined wording for a heat wave. You had to have five days in a row (consecutive) of 30 C (86 F) to be defined as a heat wave.
This past summer, the 'weather-gang' met and decided that they needed a new definition. So they changed the wording to be three days (not five).
How this plays into things?
Well...you end up with more heat waves. If you asked me of my location and getting five days in a row of 30 C-plus temperatures? I'd tell you there are probably three heat waves per year. Under this new definition? I would take a guess that there are probably eight heat waves a year.
Yeah, in a way, it makes things look pretty bad on climate change. If you asked some German over 80 years old....they'd cite just four really harsh years (2003 for example) where it was dreadful hot (that heat wave continued for about four weeks straight with 30 C temperatures).
Why the hype over hot weather? This is a puzzling thing because with almost all of the three to ten day heat waves....it is greatly dependent upon a high-pressure system that drags in southern air (from the Med or Africa) and the high-pressure system 'lingers'. In simple terms.....instead of an arrival and an exit in two days....it ends up being an arrival and exit that lasts for a week generally.
Why is 30 C the chosen temperature? Simply weather guy agreement. If you asked me personally....once it gets above 26 C (79 F), I consider it hot. I'd rather have it 15 C to 20 C myself.
So next year, as you hear all this chatter from Germans about more heat waves....it's just that the 3-day thing is in effect....not 5-days.
Our regional public TV folks talked this problem that was announced last week.
The major university in Frankfurt...the Goethe University....had sent out letters weeks ago on acceptance....that they had x-number of seats and these folks were accepted.
Well....they screwed up.
What it amounts to? 31 dentist seats and 280-odd medical studies seats.
Yeah, these kids are peeved to the 9th degree.
Going to court? Probably, but the university system just isn't capable of enlarging their system. If you didn't make the cut....you go to the 2023 listing and likely get selected then, but that means a year of waiting.
How they screwed up? Unknown.
I read over the weekend that the FDP Party wants to discuss a max bicycle speed of 10 kph (6.2 mph) for bicyclists in Germany.
It's an interesting topic.
Around two weeks ago in the village....awaiting my bus...I could hear a bicyclist racing down the hill at probably 60 kph (37 mph). He slowed just enough at the turn point, to make a right-hand turn....but probably was a good half-meter over into the oncoming lane.
You see a lot of this in the local area.
Some of this is bad judgement....some relates to the E-bike situation. Most E-bikes will get up to 20 mph now (32 kph).
Taking this to a political discussion? You'd have to force everyone to put a speedometer on their bike (something that 99-percent don't have currently).
Accepting this? I would imagine more than 75-percent of bicyclists would not accept the limit of 10 kph.
There are a lot of American GI's and their families that did the Wiesbaden 'tour' in their life, and this is my listing of what really changed since 1982....if you tried to imagine it today:
1. The train station is basically unchanged. Oh, they added a McDonalds, KFC, and a Dunkin's shop....but the station remains mostly as it looked in 1982.
2. Dealers and drugs? If you stand in front of the station (facing it) and put your left arm out....to walk five minutes, it's what I'd call a drug zone. Same can be said for Bebrich area and that 'English-garden-park' that they have. I won't say it's bad, but it's simply trending that way.
3. Restaurants that were existing in 1982? Probably 10-percent are still around....most of the rest have moved on or been replaced. If you wanted an international theme....there's probably forty different cultures to test out. The top rated place in town today? A Turkish shop over by the old bus station in town.
4. Thugs, fights, assaults? I would just say that the city council made a no-weapons zone for the walk-platz area, and have gotten serious about police patrols. I'd offer the advice that after 10 PM, you probably need to end your visit to town and take the bus home.
5. The demographics for non-German, non-American and non-Turks for the city population? I'd say that about 10-percent of the population (293k) fit into that category.
6. Traffic? The city tried to hustle up enthusiasm for a tram....but it failed miserably on the vote-business. Most people would argue that traffic in the rush-hour is now a problem....finding parking is a chaotic mess....that if you did find parking, it's fairly expensive.
7. The structures left around the American hospital and the AF post? Building-wise, most everything is still standing. The ballpark and gym stand as well. They probably threw up another twenty-odd buildings, so it looks pretty 'filled-up'.
8. E-scooters having become a problem? You started to notice them five years ago, and today.....it's added to the chaos of the city.
9. Bar and public district? I'd still rate what exists today as five-star, and probably better than what existed in 1982. The Big Apple Disco? Long gone.
10. Fests. There's hardly a month that goes by today....where some fest is not occurring in the city. This is probably one of the three big positives.
11. Break-ins and petty crime. Probably twice as much as existed in the 1980s.
12. Winos? At the Luisenplatz, probably by 9AM, the 'gang' gathers, and they sit around for most of the day. The city put a porta-potty up and clear it every other day....so things don't smell like urine in the park.
13. Beggars? On an average day in the city shopping district....if you paused for a coffee or ice cream.....it's a 25-percent chance you will be approached. I'd go and suggest at least thirty full-time folks on the walk.
14. The Perfect Day coffee shop is still the best coffee shop in town.
15. An all-day bus ticket today? Cost in the range of 6 Euro.
16. I would still say the bulk of Wiesbaden is safe enough to dump a 8-year old kid out and let them roam the city in daylight hours.
17. City Bowling burgers are still where they were 1982.
18. The old American Arms Hotel? Gone. Condo situation today.
19. Number of pizza establishments in the whole city today? I would put the number up around seventy.
20. If you were looking for a New York type city park, with decent walks and benches....they've retained that image and it's a magnet for afternoon walks.
Over the weekend, the regional weather guy gave the forecast for the next 10 days....nothing over 27 C (80 F). I pulled the AC unit out, and shuffled it to basement storage. It's mostly around 25 C for the next two weeks....with potentially one or two minimum showers.
How bad was the 2022 summer? I counted 19 days of 90 F or more (32 C or more).
Rainfall? Absolutely nothing really to discuss since early April. Every inch of the yard is dead. I've got five shrubs which are probably dead. The leaves are browning on the cherry tree.
To be honest, I've never see a dryer summer than this one. More than a dozen storms passed over in the past 100 days, with most having zero moisture dumped. If I gauged all of July? There might have been a 6-minute shower on two occasions.
Germans often refer to odd summers or extreme winters. I'm guessing 2022 will be one of those legendary situations.
From this point on? September is usually cooler evenings...a bit of rain here and there, and indicators of fall approaching.
About three weeks ago.....in the Oer-Erkenschwick area (just north of Essen)....there was a 'riot' in an apartment.
It's not clear what was meant by the term riot. What occurred was mostly surrounding a 39-year old guy who got pretty violent and disturbed. Cops were called.
Cops arrived and tried to talk sense to the guy....it didn't work. Eventually, more cops arrived (8 in the end), and some form of pepper spray was used, with significant muscle by the police.
Then, the guy uttered 'I can't breathe.'
At some point, he was put on the ground, with a police knee on his neck.Well....at the end of most towns and villages in Germany now, this is a high acreage area (usually 50 or more acres) which is dedicated to future business or minor industry production.
Away from housing or apartments? Yes.
Pollution? Based on the forty-odd industriegebiets I've seen in my life.....I'd say no. Cities collect some form of taxation and keep these areas fairly tidy.
Industriegebites done on a massive scale? On the west side of Kaiserslautern....probably 15 minutes driving beyond the city limits....there is a massive area set aside (both sides of the road).
1. Focus brought up this curious piece on business bankruptcy issues. There's a trend building up and by the end of 2022....a fair number of companies (more than the yearly average) will have done the paperwork to signal their insolvency. Will burden the economy even more for 2023.
2. Putin staff using the word phrase of 'holy war' as the special operation evolves. WELT hinted this AM that recruitment is chaotic at present for the Russians in getting new Conscripts.
3. Natural gas storage situation for Germany at present? Nearing 82-percent (85-percent was the goal set for the first week of September). Trying to relate this to winter? I've yet to figure out a number or balance to this storage business.
4. By the end of 2022, Mercedes will release their new T-class vehicle....a micro-camper-van. After viewing the discussion....it's basically a vehicle that you could load up on Friday afternoon and take-off for the weekend.
There's an interesting report over at N-TV (commercial German news) this AM and I recommend a read of it.
Topic: "Anyone Can Control Their News Consumption."
The hype? People are getting so much news....that their consumption situation is reaching maximum saturation. I mean....it's now potentially damaging your mental health.
People developing a risk of physical ailments and psychological problems? Yes, and studies can confirm that now.
One US study even went and suggested that around 16-percent of Americans studied under this issue....are in some way....overdosing on news....triggering mental issues.
The suggestion that people 'want' bad news? That came up in this piece and it's an interesting view. In some ways, it's like an addiction....you want to see images of bad things, or observe some disaster or threat to feel reality.
My advice? You ought to care about your local town or region, and get some 15-minute dose of that....without intense analysis. And I might suggest a 15-to-20 minute national or world view. But if you are doing more than two hours a day....you need to have some focus in your life to see the BS, the brand-selling, or the biased nature of things.
I'd also suggest a strong use of skepticism when viewing the news.
This week....in the area of Lausen-Grünau (suburb of Leipzig to the west of the city, eastern region of Germany)....several incendiary Molotov-cocktails were thrown onto a building that that houses migrants.
The fire that started up? Handled by security guards for the building in a matter of minutes. No one injured....no serious damage.
So the State Criminal Police Office (LKA) are onto the case.
Caught anyone in the act? No. Suspects? None.
The social media chatter? Well....right-wing radicals or neo-Nazis. Any factual information? None.
The Lausen area? Well....it's a odd history. Up until the unification business, they were always separate from Leipzig.....they became a suburb of the city in 1995. Residents in the suburb? Generally around 12,000.
Trashy or ghetto type magnet? No. That's the funny thing about this area. It's on the end of a lake and I'd classify the suburb as middle-class and above-average. Lausen actually attracts locals from Leipzig on weekends to the lake.
Buying into the neo-Nazi thing? It's easy to suggest it but just as easy to suggest some nutcase could have filled a few bottles with fuel and thrown the Molotov-cocktails.
The problem here is that this got into the national news and politicians are hyped-up that neo-Nazis are on the move....so you need to be ever vigilant.
1. Is there some kind of 'plan' created for Germany to nationalize the German company 'GAZPROM' (Russia's natural gas provider)?
Well....all that the officials will say is that on paper, they are ready to nationalize the company, if required. Via the newspaper WELT, they discussed this in the AM today....to a minor degree.
2. Is the German Census of 2022 being conducted without issue?
Well....there are two issues popping up and they are probably behind schedule to some degree.
The first issue was software related, and that has become resolved at this point.
Second issue revolves around person-to-person situations....where the questions were direct and required absolute answers. Some folks 'declined'. Based on the EU directive and the way that the Germans wrote the regulations....you can't decline any part of the Census, without a fine being involved.
3. Did the 'Last Generation' protest-kids disrupt and halt a German soccer game?
Well....yes. This was in Munich yesterday.
Based on reporting....the game halted for about 30 minutes while the police cleared the field.
Based on video, I'd say they were trying to use glue or something....to attach themselves to the goalposts.
Charges? Probably.
4. Paxlovid to be prescribed more often now, when dealing with Covid?
That's the word from the Ministry of Health in Germany.
Putin said today....if you are Ukrainian....you are welcome to come to Russia...get citizenship, and an immediate work-permit. Social assistance? Part of the deal.
In the 1990s, there were around 12-million Russians in the Ukraine. By 2003? It was closer to 8.5-million. Today? No one has done a Census in the Ukraine in almost 20 years.....so the modern number is a best guess only.
I will say this....from the eastern part of the country (Ukraine).....it was mostly Russians. Would there still be 8.5 million today, since the war started? No....I would be guessing that a fair number have left for Europe or Russia.
Will Russia get any folks to sign up? There might be a million to easily sign up within a month (my humble opinion).
Some gimmick? Well....he has nothing to lose. I would add....on best estimates...more than 1-million Russians have left Russia since the war started. They might not be coming back.
I live in a urbanized village attached to Wiesbaden. The best description? After 10 PM, the town is 99-percent dead. We have only two pubs in town. One closes at 11 PM (even on Fridays)...the other is a youth hangout (for folks under 30) and they close at 1 AM.
Police patrols? Well....the Wiesbaden city police will do an occasional patrol...probably a 20-minute ride around 20 km's of streets in the village....usually once or twice a day. In 99-percent of these drive-arounds....there's not much to report.
Last night? Well...there's some serious crap going on.
What the cops say....around 11:45 last night....some older guy (age 73) was stumbling his way back from the bar that closed at 11 PM. I should note.....no car, bike or horse was involved....he was just walking back.
The police van pulled up and they asked if he had issues.
The guy (obviously drunk) responded some manner, and the cops responded back....they wanted to do a 'control'.
'Control' means they want you to present your ID and possibly allow a body search (knives, etc).
Well....the 73-year old guy said something in German....to the effect 'hell no'.
The cops counter-responded to that, and then the old guy followed with an insult of some type. We aren't told the insult, but usually.....anything said to a policeman....gets you into trouble.
So as they approached him....he threw a punch. At that point, he was screwed.
He ended up detained, alcohol-tested, and will likely get some type of charge. A fine is minimum....he might even get a week or two in jail.
The sad thing? He was just quietly stumbling back home. The cops should have just driven by, and never stopped to say a word. All of this....launched into a bigger mess, which wasn't really necessary.
Around three weeks ago, the WaPo folks said that 150 to 200 Russians, with diplomatic immunity....were in reality....spies in Germany, up until the war started.
After the war started, the Germans kinda told them to 'leave'.
But then you start to wonder....how many Russian spies exist in Germany today....without diplomatic immunity? You know....the sleeper agents, the bakery shop agents, the imbis agents, and so on.
In the West Germany days, the US wanted to believe over a thousand Soviet agents were wandering around Germany. Proof? Nothing really.
If you wanted a guess? I'd take a wild guess of 300-odd secret agents.....some in legit jobs....some just pretending to work. But the thing is....what of value are you turning in each week? A 3 x 5 inch index card of marginal crap....where two German Army privates were talking about a ultra-modern sleeping bag that they are testing?
That's the thing about it....you could have 300 secret agents feeding you stuff each week, and only one single report of four lines seems to be of any value.
Germans getting hyped up about this? I doubt it. On their list of crappy things to worry about.....this probably only rates near 400 out of a list of 500 things. They might worry more about six British secret agents (all called 007-1, 007-2, 007-3, etc). Or they might worry about the cost of beer doubling by summer of 2023.
There's a great commentary piece via WELT (if you can find a copy at the news stand) today, written by Anne Schneider....entitled "Top Down Policy Gradually Reaching Its Limits". I strongly recommend a read.
The basic hype?
Across Germany now, there's a lot of guidance and 'chalk-talk' (lectures) by the political establishment for Germans to sacrifice for the 'greater good' of society. Frankly, it's reaching a point where most people are fed up with the lectures.
I'm not saying it's chaotic or riot-potential...but it's to the point where people don't really want lectures via journalists or politicians any more. In simple terms....they are going to the 'mute-button' and listening in silence.
Covid and the Ukraine-Russia war has simply been added to forty other hot topics and it's a burden to have enthusiasm for this lecture business.
A lot of hype has come up over the past ten days in Germany, over the Karl May books (written in the mid to late 1800s) on cowboy-Indian stories set in the American west. So the general 'woke' end of this.....is that they are totally inaccurate, and need to be halted.
I paused over this, and pondered.
To be honest, with the Winnetou movies (all eleven), I've probably watched all of them at least twice. With 'The Treasure in Silver Lake'? I've probably seen it at least eight times.
My description of the movies? The Indians are always portrayed as wonderful people....the settlers are generally protrayed as nice folks....then you have the third element of the story (in each movie)....bad evil folks (half are Americans....half Mexicans).
Each movie uses the landscape of Yugoslavia (from 1962 to 1968) as the background, and to be honest....about a third of the reason why I'm entertained by the movies relates to the that. It looks like Colorado in a way.
If you asked me about authenticity of the original script (books)....I'd give it a marginal grade. In real life, you had various good-Indians around bad-Indians.....innocent settlers around bad settlers....the railroad people, politicization, and the US Army used in abusive ways. Yeah, it's complicated. Karl May simply choose a particular theme that made for enjoyable reading. I doubt if he'd ever met an Indian in his life.
Forcing the movies off the air? Well....then you open up this big door. I can think of a hundred-odd movies that are historically inaccurate in detail....would you go and disappear them as well?
1. If you go and read through Spiegel (from Friday afternoon), they suggest in the Idar-Oberstein area of Germany (German training center) that Russian secret service 'spies' are active and watching the Germans train the Ukrainian soldiers there.
There's also some suspicion that Grafenwohr (the US center in Bavaria) is being spied upon.
My BS-meter? Probably at a '2'. It's probably mostly all true.
2. All that massive rain and lightning predicted in the Wiesbaden area of yesterday? Amounted to nothing much. The drought continues.
3. Two German retail stores (Saturn, Galerie Kaufhof) made a decision to turn off their escalators.....to save energy. I would imagine almost all stores will do that by October.
4. Well known Bavarian political figure is calling for construction of three new nuke electrical plants (in Bavaria). N-TV ran the piece this AM. Odds of this being accepted by the federal gov't? Near zero, currently.
After the chaotic winter? If it goes really negative and power is a problem....I'd say it's better than a 50-percent chance that this will be pushed in the spring, and the Bavarians will make this a major issue for the state.
5. This natural gas new 'levy' (tax) being discussed (scaring the crap out of Germans for excessive cost) is now back on the examination table. At the very least, I'd say it will be trimmed back in scale.
The question came up today to the Chancellor.
His response: "Well, in this legislative period, that's what we wrote in the coalition agreement. I'll gladly admit that I had to get myself there first to find that right, because firstly I've never smoked weed, so I can't make a contribution to thinking about it myself, and secondly, of course, I think that all drugs have problems and that speech , there are some that have no consequences for your own health, just never true.”
What this means? It's anyone's guess.
If you walked around the Green Party....I think it's near 99-percent who want a framework of it being legal to sell.
Around the SPD? I'd take a guess it's only about 60-percent who want it legal, and the rest are pretty determined to delay this path.
The FDP? They've made statements that it can be legalized but with a significant amount of regulations (and taxation).
At the end of 2021, the coalition agreed that it'd be done by the end of 2022.
What's hindering things? I think the text to the legal path is complicated and probably a regulation of more than 100 pages.
Yesterday, the story came out that the draft number (mandated now) will be 137,000 Conscripts being drafted up.
Russia drafts twice a year (April and October).
How this number reflects reality? It's a 10-percent higher number, than previous episodes for the draft.
Will young men readily accept this, or will there be some type of exit going on?
My humble belief is that around a quarter million young men (mostly in the age group of 17 to 19), will be looking for an exit out of the country. It might be toward Finland, or to the south into the 'stan' republics.
All of this an indicator of things going sour? Well....between wounded and dead, there's an issue brewing. Add to it....the contracted-out guys probably are starting to have their fill, and would prefer something less chaotic.
How they fill the billets? I suspect more than half of the billets will be lower IQ guys (in the 60 to 70 range), and likely to get just enough boot-camp to last four weeks in a war-zone before they screw up and die.
It's a harsh reality.
My regional public TV folks (HR)....hyped a unique problem developing in the state....not enough applicants for apprentice positions.
Around the 8th grade (age 15), German kids are in a position to apply for apprentice situations.
In different parts of the country....there are varying statistics for this. If you live in the NW....for every hundred apprentice positions, there's typically 140 kids applying. If you live in Bavaria, for every hundred apprentice positions, there's typical 80 kids applying (meaning they are always short). This was 2019 numbers, before Covid.
So Hessen has become the same way....empty positions sitting there. Part of the blame? The news folks suggest that a trend has started up....where the kids want an extra year or two of school, before making the step to the apprentice situation.
All of this leading to a situation where you have fewer technicians on hand? Well....if this trend were to continue...that would be a true statement. It means you'd call up your heating service and find that some repair situation which would typically be handled in a day or two....now requires three to five days, because the trained folks just aren't in abundance.
1. There's a fairly long story over NDR (the German public sub-network from the northern region of Germany).....suggesting a pro-CDU slant over news topics. Network employees are now grumbling about this.
You are beginning to see various complaints being lodged in public about the way that the public TV management folks operate.
Added to this....the RBB network in Berlin has added another story....the fired 'boss' had some type of relationship with the board director....which allowed a lot of things to occur, without questions.....again, a Focus story.
2. This natural gas 'added' tax/levy....to save the failing natural gas companies? Well....it's hitting a brick wall, with the SPD Party setting up a position to counter what the Green Party is pushing (vice-Chancellor Habeck is the one who designed the levy).
Any bets on the added tax occurring? Presently? I'd say it's only 50-50.
3. If you can find a copy of WELT this AM, there's an interesting commentary by Axel Bojanowski. Topic? "Neglect Value of Domestic Agriculture."
To sum it up....it's not that wild of an idea that Germany will soon be a food importer, than a food exporter....because of regulations being handed down by the Berlin folks and the EU.
It's worth a read, but it'll also frustrate you that regulations are creating a pricing spiral .
4. Spiegel did a survey to find more Germans would prefer Habeck (Greens) or Merz (CDU) as Chancellor....than Scholz (SPD).
5. Some weird story where the German authorities admit the daughter of Putin has traveled in Germany on twenty or more occasions in recent years, with Putin's bodyguards in tow....to meet up with her 'lover' in Germany. No one seemed to notice, until the matter was brought up.
Visa cleared? Well....no one says much. Bodyguards part of the Kremlin protection staff? Well....yeah, that's an odd part of the story as well.
If you've ever driven around German autobahn rest-stops.....you know the bath-room business runs this way. There's the WC, and a plate there....where you put down usually 50-Euro-cents.
So there's court action brewing and N-TV talked about this one episode.
Tax folks in Germany say this one gal...working the 'plate' business...for 2005 to 2008....somehow made 1.2-million Euro.
She's had little to say and the judge has told the tax folks that they have a pretty difficult case brewing. He's only believing in 600,000 Euro that might have been collected.
How you'd even make 600,000 off a 50-cent visit bathroom situation on the autobahn? I'm shaking my head.
I could see sitting there for 12 hours, and maybe having 300 folks stop....meaning I made 150 Euro a day. But in this situation.....even if you worked 365 days a year, you'd only clear around 55,000 Euro.
Was she working 24 hours a day? Was she working at two to six rest-stops and running back and forth?
If I'd cleared 1.2-million Euro....I'd have found some rustic situation in Greece and quietly disappeared in 2008.
I rarely see this chatter by the journalists, so I spent several hours this week....focused on the Crimea, Russia and the Ukraine.
For size comparison...the Crime is about 80-percent the size of my regional German state....Hessen.
Back before the 'grab' (2014) took place, Russians made up about 65-percent of the population. Ukrainians made up around 15-percent. And Tarter people (the natural inhabitants of the land for the past thousand-odd years...made up around 12-percent. Toward the mid-1800s...the Tarter folks went from 80-percent to 50-percent....in a matter of 50 years....they've been in decline ever since.
It's not a heavily populated island....only 2.4-million (Hessen, for reference has 6-million).
What the people mostly survived off of? Well....pearls, oysters, fishing, agriculture, some minor industry, and tourism (by visits to the ports or by Russian tourists flying in and consuming a vast amount of sunshine).
At some point in the 1980s and 1990s....the Crimea became this health destination where you went for wellness or rehab. In some ways, it became legendary in scale, and if you walked around Moscow....most everyone today will tell you that either they've been there, or friends of theirs, or relatives have been there. Yeah, it's become like Orlando is in Florida.
After 2014, the Russians kinda claimed the island as theirs, and this bridge was built on the east end. The bridge made a big difference in bringing in consumable goods. If the bridge is removed or destroyed....a major segment of the success of the Crimea for the past ten years....will be gone.
In the period before the war (Christmas to New Year's)....there were around 250,000 tourists who flew in and enjoyed Crimea....spending a ton of money on the local economy.
In 2019, before Covid....the Crimea suggested that they had almost 4.5-million guests who came for the 'wellness'.
So I come to this odd aspect....if the island isn't safe, or controlled by the Russians....what happens to the economy? Tourism decline, possible industry decline, and a spiral effect on goods? None of that plays well for the economy. I would imagine if you asked the typical Russian about 'safety' and the Crimea....most would have a grin, and just say that they wouldn't go in 2022 for 'sun and fun'.
The sad thing about this....if they were on their own, and not involved in the war....they'd be like Cyprus or Crete. They'd have tourism from Russia and Europe. They'd probably see forty flights a day bringing tourists in and spending money recklessly on hotels, booze and food.
As much as the war/special operation is about the Ukraine....the Crimea is a segment attached to this discussion in the end.
1. The conscripts are marginally prepared for the action they've seen. Most came in and got a couple of weeks of boot-camp, and were then delivered to the 'front'.
2. Leadership-wise, it would seem that when you dig up and push the commanders out into the field....they were probably more prepared for a WW II confrontation than a modern war. Adding to this....a fair number of the major leaders at the front....have died in action.
3. The tank-versus-tank war, which is what the Russians were prepared for....never occurred.
4. Fuel-trucks....to keep the tank war moving....became a problem when the Ukrainians figured out how to hit them. Without fuel, the Russian front didn't progress.
5. Missiles and rockets matter.
6. The Russians were not prepared for a high-causality situation in battle. It should be noted....even if you were just wounded, because of crappy medical care, you are likely finished for the duration of the war.
7. The Ukrainians would appear to be getting a lot of advice/intel from various 'outsiders'. I don't think the Russians expected that. The Ukrainian strategy has evolved....week after week. You can marginally say that for the Russians.
8. Whoever gave bad advice to Putin for the start of this....is still providing bad advice even today. There's no evidence that Putin or his staff got smarter as time went by.
9. It would appear that the Oligarch folks scammed probably fifty percent of the procurement budget for the Army....for over twenty years.
10. Bringing Russian guys out of prison, with an enlistment contract.....inflicts a low marginal and non-obedient Conscript force into developing.
This is a German story that requires an introduction before we get to the 'scandal' part.
This story starts with Karl May...a German guy born in 1842. What you can generally say from his early beginnings....Karl was NOT destined for great things, and came from a bottom-of-the-working-class family.
Karl eventually rose up....got educated to some degree, then started to wander off into trouble. So eventually, around age 28, Karl got sent off to state prison. There....some humble servant of the prison offered Karl magazines which featured American cowboy and Indian stories (this being the 1870s era).
Karl felt inspiration and tried his hand at writing these.
In 1875, Karl wrote "Die Rose von Ernstthal". So began this career of stories under Karl's name.
The more famous of the series? "Winnetou".
My description of the Winnetou series? It's this wonderful tale of Indians in their environment and settlers in theirs....with bad guys in the middle, who Winnetou (the Chief of a local tribe) and his friend Old Shatterhand (a cowboy who seems to never drink and is always humble/honest).
If you tried to associate the Winnetou books to any reality? They would fall short.
But in the early 1960s, a number of Karl May books were made into movies, and just about every German has watched these....probably more than a dozen times each.
Germans over the age of forty will lay a very enthusiastic feeling over Winnetou and how things were always settled in the positive way for Indians.
So we come to 2022, and the scandal.
A new book was added by the 'owners' of Winetou business (Ravensburger Verlag)...called "The Young Chief Winnetou". It was supposed to just another step in the legend of Karl May. However, all hell has broke loose with woke folks and what is called "cultural appropriation." The book? Withdrawn, and it appears that everyone is hyped up about the 'true' story of the Indians, and how Karl May's books/movies really don't resemble the truth.
The movies likely disappearing from commercial TV? Oh, I'd say by the end of 2023.....you probably won't see them run for several years. Karl May's legend? Probably gone permanently.
In some ways funny? Well, we will reach a point where a lot of German history....told down for the past thousand years....will be condemned for various reasons, and people will just start dismissing things left and right.
1. There is a good piece in WELT today, if you can find a copy at the newsstand....written by Daniel Wezel. Topic? Japan quitting nuke power after Fukushima? NO.
Japan is going right back at the nuke technology for power plants, and it's begging the question if Germany made the right decision about zero nuke power. Article is worth a read.
2. The FDP Party is pointing out that a number of natural gas providers are NOT in financial trouble (they managed the escalating prices well), and therefore....should not be getting any of the 'levy' (new tax) money.
How many companies in this good position? Unknown.
3. There's supposed to be a decision announced today whether the Lubcke murder trial was correctly handled by the Frankfurt court. I should note, the end result for this case was guilty, with life-imprisonment.
4. On Tuesday evening....in the Chunnel (between the UK and France), the railway broke down. So passengers waited, a 'rescue' train came in, and 400 folks had to be taken by a second train.
Well....Focus reported this in the AM today.....the NDR network (sub-network for NW Germany), has been accused of filtering political chatter.
At least nine members of the network have made the statement and suggest a 'landscape of fear' now in the news business for the region.
The slant here? If you read through it....it sounds like NDR is a 'mouthpiece' for the standing government of NRW (the state).
Added to the scandal business for public TV....there's another report out there in the AM....talking about how many 'directors' (bosses) exist for public TV, and how each one ranks for a limo with a driver.
The count for ARD/ZDF and the sub-networks? It's up to around 24 people. Even the boss at ARD had to admit he has a limo, a driver, and a massage seat.
It was also laid out that WDR (sub-network) has planned out a 240-million Euro new building for their operation. A group of folks are now asking questions about this deal.
Oddly silent? Well....with all the limo/driver chatter going on....NO one has stood up in the political arena to talk about mayors, city council folks, Senators, political folks at the state level (16 states) and the federal level in Berlin.
I would imagine there's probably over 1,000 limos engaged across Germany for politicians and at least fifty of them have the massage seats.
At some point, Bild or one of the commercial TV news teams will go and start the 'count', and there's going to be a lot of bitter feelings over who got the cars.
Because of a bicycle race....the autobahn around Frankfurt (A66 and A648)....mostly leading to the Wiesbaden-Erbenheim area....will be shut down to regular traffic this Sunday from 12:30 to 4:30.
A harsh reality?
There won't be any trucks on the autobahn (because it's a Sunday), but there's probably 10,000 cars that would have driven through on those hours.
The odds of this being a one-time event? I'd suggest a lot of criticism to come out of this.
Back around six weeks ago, in the middle of the German vacation season....bags were being lost at various German airports, and massive chaos reigned down upon everyone. So they hyped up how they were going to hire around 2,000 Turks....for airport baggage handlers, and this would be done in a hurry....to resolve things.
ARD (public TV) reported today....the results.
There were only 140-odd Turks to submit a application.
Out of that....only 32 Turks were granted a visa after the security review was complete.
The airport industry? It would appear they weren't surprised, and admit in public now that just getting into the 3-digit range would have made them happy.
Kinda funny, if you think about it. There in early July, there were all this massive hype....how the Turks would arrive and save the tourism industry. Now? The burden is on 32 Turks to save the baggage of Germans.
At the very end of 2021, I finally situated with the US Social Security stuff, in terms of paperwork....then had to wait four weeks (into 2022) to get the final approval.
I sat down this week to gauge my German stuff (I worked 5.5 years under this German 'umbrella').
I can't sign up until age 65 and 11 months. It's a fair amount of time away. What I get for that 5.5 year period? Roughly 225 Euro a month.
Yeah....another two year wait for second pension deal.
Up until now....Kurt-Georg Kiesinger was given the lowest grade as Chancellor (1966 to 1969, CDU Party).
If you asked any German under the age of thirty.....it's probably a 98-percent chance that they won't even know who the guy was.
They've recently taken a new poll, and the present Chancellor (Scholz, SPD) has now overtaken Kiesinger, to be ranked at the rock bottom.
A big deal? I don't think so.
If you go back to six months prior to the election....most journalists said of Scholz....that he was too 'wooden' (not that charismatic).
Likely to change? No.
An idiot or anti-intellectual? No, that's not how I'd describe the guy. If you wanted someone who was somewhat like a quiet bank-president, without any hype or enthusiasm.....this is the guy.
There's a good interview off N-TV in Germany this AM, which I recommend. The topic? Possible end of the Ukraine-Russia war.
So they went to a international law expert (Matthias Herdegen), and he states something that a number of people have hinted at for the past month....military fatigue for Russia.
It's not just tanks and equipment....it's manpower.
Russia never had a unlimited situation. They had x-amount of Conscripts (marginally trained) and x-amount of tanks/vehicles to conduct a limited war (probably in the range of six to eight weeks. In the way that the Ukraine reacted, and used anti-tank weapons? The Russians simply weren't up to this type of warfare.
Herdegen is blunt....he thinks that the war probably will start to wind down by the end of 2022, and close out in some fashion by the 12th month. Whether Putin is there or not....doesn't matter.
I noticed in the past week....a bit of discussion over some Russian conscripts who'd lost their will to fight and were sent to a conditioning 'camp' (more or less a torture situation, where your attitude improved or they went to more intense steps). This apparently started up in July, and I would imagine it'll double in size by October.
The Crimea at the heart of this 'end'? The Russians always had this idea that the island would remain and be Russian in the end. In recent weeks....it's now obvious that the Ukraine has stamped the Crimea as a target, and it's days as a vacation spot for Russians probably have come to an end. Convincing locals to just up and leave? I think that's become the Ukraine's strategy.
Does any of this mean a collapse of the Kremlin's leadership? I seriously doubt that, but some of those pro-war folks might find themselves excluded from Putin's circle in the future.
I would break this up and present the five fronts:
1. Every country in Europe has a different situation with natural gas providers....so Germany is at the worst end....with around 50-percent of the gas required....being delivered by Russia. France for example....had only 17-percent (2020) of it's natural gas coming from Russia.
2. A lot of business and industry operations in Germany depend on natural gas, so it wrecks the commercial landscape in planning around this mess.
3. You really can't predict the harsh nature or the moderate nature of this winter. A truly bad winter....would be a problem to overcome.
4. Cost-wise, no one is really confident about a leveling out of natural gas cost.
5. Finally, once you emerge in April 2023....is it over, or do you repeat the entire unpleasant experience in the fall of 2023?
Most all of the public forums featured on German public TV now....center on either the potential electrical crisis, or the natural gas heating crisis. As bad as the Covid period was for all of 2020 and 2021....this now surpasses that era.
Then you add this unknown element....does the coalition government of the SPD-Greens-FDP....bring confidence to the general public on this issue? It's a question that presently....cannot be determined.
1. ARD (public TV, Channel One) has created a 'portal' where you (the consumer) can write and suggest ideas. Location here.
Now, what I will say from 20 minutes of browsing....a lot of the ideas have been around for 30 years. Some people make a blunt statement that there are too many political folks appearing on TV, and it ought to be downsized. Some people are suggesting a lack of non-ethnic German folks on TV shows, and there ought to be more ethnic TV shows.
It is entertaining to some degree.
With the RBB scandal going on, it's possible that some radical moves will be forced upon public TV in Germany.
2. Poll trending (reported by Focus). CDU Party at the top with 26 percent, and at the bottom....the Linke Party with 4 percent. The Greens are in second place with 25 percent. The SPD at 18 percent. The AfD at 11 percent. The FDP at 7 percent.
Taking anything out of this? Well....I think the serious downturn since the election (about a year ago) is for for the SPD.
3. N-TV (commercial news) had a shocker report on electrical prices this AM. 'Panic' is the chief word I'd use.
The electrical exchange is on a wild adventure at this point, and I think the public will be shocked in 2023 when they get their bills.
4. The big German meeting in Canada with both the Chancellor and vice-Chancellor visiting?
It's mostly about getting a deal up with production of hydrogen (the blue stuff, not the green stuff).
If you gaze over the production of the green 'stuff'....the cost nature is way too much to make this a great investment. The Canadians aim for the blue hydrogen,
5. Pictures on the government plane flying Scholz and Habeck to Canada.....without masks? Well....what was said later, this was a German Air Force plane, and they have different rules than the commercial aircraft world.
No one is really buying into this, and it's drawing a lot of questions.
I saw this on travel news in Germany.
There's a discussion going on about airline tickets bought in Germany, and a new way of 'paying'.
So, normally, if you travel by air.....you pay the full ticket price at the time of reservation being made.
With all the crap of this summer....cancelled flights in the mix.....there's some folks suggesting a plan an end to full-ticket situations.
They want some type of down payment, and you (as the airline) would only get the full price....at the counter as you board.
Oh yeah....it's a rough practice they are suggesting.
What's said is that the airlines are getting a interest-free loan, and while they used to perform at high levels.....that's not the case today.
Odds of this idea passing? I would say it's less than 20-percent. However, if the EU were to pick this up....I'd say the odds improve to 70-percent. The airlines? Oh, they won't like this idea at all.
Is it bad enough to rig up this idea? Up until this summer, I'd say NO. In the past decade, I've only had one flight end up cancelled on me....here in Europe. Course, in the past three months....there's a lot of negativity brewing on flights and airports.
ARD public TV went to chat over this topic today.
AfD was created in some way around a decade ago to be the opposition to the government's coalition system. Their first big topic was the anti-Euro position, then came the migrate and immigration episode from 2014 to 2017.
Presently? Here's the thing.....the current SPD-Green-FDP coalition has limits on what they can do, and there's only x-amount on the table to resolve things.
When you talk about increasing energy prices, inflation, and a natural gas crisis....everyone in Germany is now affected.
But what exactly can the AfD offer? Free stuff? Not really. A lot of hot air? Probably. Some kind of control over the natural gas business? How?
I can see some chatter going on but there's no treasure chest of 'help' that would resolve any of this stuff going. Maybe out in some pub.....you can aggravate folks enough to churn up some frustration and anger....but what next?
I should detail this story from last night's public forum on ARD (Hart Aber Fair), which might make a non-German laugh.
It was a public forum which concerned energy and touched on a number of subjects.
One of these subjects goes back to a comment by the Baden-Wurttemberg Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann, who remarked in the past week...that maybe we ought to take just one bath a week (to save energy) and just use a wash-cloth for the other six days.
This comment came.
There were a few comments about this wash-cloth idea.....then the SPD General Secretary (Kevin Kühnert) had offered up a comment.
I respect Kühnert, but about every third thing he says....is a bit funny to consider.
So Kühnert says it's just 'weird, when people making five-digit monthly income want to fall all over themselves explaining to people how to save money'.
I sat there this morning contemplating this wash-cloth thing once again. I expect by November....some public TV network will make this a big deal....that everyone ought to cease using hot water for bathing or limit their bathing actions.
I should also note this....at the beginning of this week....some landlord in Germany sent a note out....by such-and-such date, he was ceasing hot-water throughout the building. Course, that got everyone in the building hyped-up. The reason....he said that the bill (which would arrive in the spring of 2023)....would be so outrageous that his tenants would not be able to pay it. He had a valid point, but the city officials pulled out the national 'standard' for apartment rental, and hot water is listed. So he couldn't turn it off. He'll just wait till spring and the shock starts to fall into play.
I should note....the national standard 'rules' say you can limit hot water to certain times of the day, and most folks are applying that rule.
I noticed this morning two additional stories on the public TV scandal out of Berlin with the network RBB.
First, the board met (the RBB board) and discussed the severance pay situation with the former 'boss' of the network. They agreed.....no severance pay package. Odds of a legal action? Oh, I'd give a 99-percent chance. This might drag on for a year before it's finally settled.
Second, it's an odd story over at WELT and there's limited facts about this....but journalists have figured out that several cameramen have been paid for work...continually....while they haven't officially worked in several years. We aren't talking about pension or retirement type situations.....just work-hours and payment for them. Who knew about this? Unknown. Amount of money? Unknown.
I'll just say this....almost daily....there's some 'rock' overturned and another odd story about the public TV network. From top to bottom....someone needs to come in and be from far outside of public TV....to review their expenditures. Once done? The same group ought to go through all of the public TV networks.
The Finland Prime Minister (Sanna Marin) is in trouble. She likes to party.
First, lets admit this up front....she is 36 years old. She has an active life, and wants some off-time to chill out.....meaning an occasional party.
Second, for some reason....some folks felt she was drugged-up at some party....so she volunteered for a drug test (no one says what type, but it was a drug test). She passed....negative.
Third, when she walked out of the house for the party....she didn't take the government cellphone. Yes, imagine if things had collapsed in Helsinki, and she wasn't there to take charge.
I looked over this business....if you want a stay-at-home PM....then select folks who are sixty-plus years old. For some reason, it's been common to pick mostly folks in the age group of 50 to 60, in Finland....for the past decade or two. Before the 1980s....it was mostly old guys that they depended upon to be the PM....you know, the type that sipped whiskey and played cards.
If you were looking for scandal-material....Finland just isn't the place to find it.
The public forum show on ARD (9:15 PM).....it went this way....a fairly long and harsh discussion on energy. But they did something rather different for this forum....they brought in a member to the panel who isn't some expert, journalist, or political figure. The gal was just a retired person....sitting on the panel.
The chief thing you would have gotten from the show?
Michael Hüther (Director of the Institute for German Economics) made the blunt statement: "We are facing a loss of prosperity."Well....what the Moscow police now say of the car-bombing that killed the daughter of Putin's 'idea-guy' (Dugan)?
They say it was a remote control bomb, and they know the Ukrainian gal responsible for the bomb.
But oddly enough.....she drove off, and by the time they figured out it was her....she was safely in Estonia.
But to add more more.....she'd arrived around three or four months ago in Moscow....to this neighborhood where the victim lived. With her, she brought a 12-year old daughter.
How she drove away? In a fairly new Mini, and spent roughly 10 hours on the road....driving to the Pskov region, then heading northward to Estonia. Why Estonia? Unknown.
If you were escaping, your strategy is simply to cross borders and get the hell out of Russia.....so you'd cut off two hours of driving and head straight toward Latvia. But maybe her plan was to get over to the port of Tallinn and catch the ferry to Finland. That would make sense.
If I were her? I would have dumped the car immediately after crossing the border, and gone by ferry to Germany or Denmark.
What happens now? By this weekend, Russia probably present paperwork for the Estonians to arrest the woman and hand her over. Estonia complying? I'm not so sure, and it'd be better if she just left the country and moved on.
The whole thing sounding like a movie script? Well....yeah, I'm fairly skeptical of the story being like this. Some secret agent gal, having her 12-year-old daughter tag along? Is the 12-year-old kid even twelve? What if she's a secret agent gal as well?
Could she just hide out on an island off the coast of Estonia? Yeah, that's pretty much what I'd do....have some friendly pro-Ukraine couple just take you in for six months and let things simmer for a while.
The chief problem for Russia? If all of this were true....I'd be worried about constant car-bombs now.....if I were a VIP in Moscow. If it's all false? Makes for a good Angelina Jolie movie.
Well....off social media, this is the wording:
"We declare President Putin a usurper of power and a war criminal who amended the Constitution, unleashed a fratricidal war between the Slavic peoples and sent Russian soldiers to certain and senseless death. Poverty and coffins for some, palaces for others – the essence of his policy.
We believe that disenfranchised people have the right to rebel against tyrants. Putin will be deposed and destroyed by us!
Our goal is to stop the destruction of Russia and its neighbors, to stop the activities of a handful of Kremlin businessmen who have sucked on the wealth of our people and are committing crimes today inside and outside the country.
We call on those who are ready to fight to follow our example and overthrow this inhuman, hypocritical and anti-people regime!
We consider it unacceptable that Russians have begun to be defamed all over the world because of war crimes committed by those who have neither nationality nor fatherland, and who love only money and power.
The world is not an enemy of Russia, and Russia is not an enemy of humanity, and we will prove this by deeds.
We will give protection to all who follow our call. All those who carry out our program up to the change of regime are exempted from the responsibility provided for by the laws of the usurper.
After our victory, we will immediately release all those illegally convicted by the Putin authorities.
We will give freedom to all the peoples inhabiting Russia and build a new society - a society without oligarchs, without corruption, without arbitrary officials, without humiliating poverty.
A society in which everyone is rewarded according to their work. Society without wars and violence.
A society in which power will belong to the people, where citizens will choose their own leaders and organize the life of their cities and villages themselves.
A society in which the rulers will not be able to sacrifice human lives for their own greatness, but will think about education, medicine and scientific progress. A society in which everyone will be proud that he was born on the territory of Russia and will want to live in it!
Long live Free Russia! Wherever you are - fight like us, fight with us, fight better than us!
Let's cleanse our Motherland from filth! Victory will be ours.
So, my BS-meter? It's up near a '8'.
First, it puts up the wording of being nationalistic in nature. Then, there are various elements of socialism sprinkled around this. So...yeah, it sound Nationalist-Socialist in nature.....and that leads to some Nazi-chatter.
It just sounds like a bunch of Putin propaganda thugs....who took the original script of Nazis in the Ukraine....built a new script for Moscow, and is playing out a another whole drama on the side.
Second, it does hint that the Oligarch 'crew' is part of the problem (not just Putin).
Third? If it wasn't so nationalistic in writing, I'd say it was a group of older Commie guys who've survived the past thirty years and want a dramatic return to power like it was in the 1980s.
Well....this is the general story, and my BS-meter is running around a '5' on this story.
Starting out early this year.....this NRA group decided that it was time to depose Putin.
They claim that they are a 'underground' group and feel that Putin is a war criminal.
Nationalists? Yeah.....they claim this as part of their theme.
Numbers? No one has any idea. It might be 10 folks....it might be a thousand.
Could they be a creation of Putin or his inner circle? Yeah, this is possible.
If you ask me....this car-bombing over the weekend of Putin's 'idea-guy's' daughter....just seems awful scripted.
NRA....just a fake creation? I'd say it's a 50-50 chance of that..
If it were real? Well....I'd start to look at the Oligarch crew around Putin, and their safety concerns. I'd make it a priority to kill someone associated with them each week.
Creating a wave of terror among the elite of Moscow? Yeah.
1. Do I believe Putin believes all the BS stuff that he's put out in the past eight months?
Yeah. I think between limited human contact in the Covid era, movies that he's watched over the past thirty years of Nazi-WW II topics, and the general propaganda theme.....he's rock-solid into what he says.
2. How the war will end?
I've come to this belief that between a downsized tank situation, not enough bullets to conduct an offensive, and a spiral on military manpower....this 'game' probably comes to an rapid slow-down by December of 2022. There will simply come a week where the Conscripts in some massive effort....just pick up what they have and start walking to the Russian border. At that point, there is no offense, and the occupied lands fall back to the Ukraine. Putin won't be able to explain the retreat, and the whole script falls apart at that point.
3. This car bomb in Moscow that killed the Dugan gal (daughter of the 'brain-guy' that advises Putin).....who is believed behind it?
Well....some now believe it's NOT the Ukrainians.
Some say there is a anti-Putin underground movement called the National Republican Army (NRA).
There is a rumor (belief) that 'dad' himself....put the bomb on the car....sacrificing his daughter, for the greater good of Russia. BS-meter here is a '7', but this idea is floating around.
4. Blame game over the weekend between Green Party's Habeck and Bavaria's Soder (Premier-President of the state)?
Yes, and it's about the energy business. Bavaria says it's not getting a fair shake on things. Habeck says they haven't been active in getting solar or wind generators in the state. This is going back and forth.
It came out in the past day or two in the RBB public TV scandal.....that the leased limo that the 'boss' of ARD had a lease through.....had this one funny detail.
The leasing company offered a 70-percent off deal, as the contract was signed via RBB.
I sat and pondered over this.
At various times through the leasing business.....you (as a manager) might offer a 10-percent to 20-percent 'off' deal. That's normal.
In the Washington DC area....I can remember an episode where a leased car was returned while still in the first quarter of the lease for some reason, and the second party came up to lease the vehicle....getting a 30-percent off deal.
But 70-percent off? It just never happens.
How did the RBB folks get this discount? This would be worth telling. Course, there's probably some unethical situation involved.
Last night (Saturday evening)....the daughter of Alexander Dugin was killed in a assassination attempt (in Moscow).
Dugan? He's the nationalist ideas-guy for Putin.
From what the Moscow cops say....Dugin and the daughter were leaving an event, and at the last moment....he changed plans. The daughter left in his vehicle, which exploded later.
How close is Dugan to Putin? If you drew up a list of the top dozen people to Putin....who probably chats daily over the phone or in person....he's in the dozen.
Was the daughter (age 29) a totally innocent player? Well....this gets interesting. She was generally considered a key player in the TV-propaganda campaign supporting Putin, and the operation.
Who set the bomb? This goes to a dozen-odd possibilities. It could have been an Oligarch group/individual. It could have been elements of the FSB/KGB. It could have been Ukrainian special forces. It could have even be some jealous lover or former friend.
The thing is.....Dugan will look over things and some minor civil 'war' within Moscow might start up....as he 'pays' back some folks for their involvement.
Was this payback for something that Dugan did a month or two ago? That possibility also exists.
Dugan eventually blaming this upon the Ukraine? That's also a possibility.
I went to a concert event last night in Wiesbaden. Yeah, occasionally, I will get 'culture'.
So this was a professional orchestra group....from the Schleswig Holstein area (up around the Hamburg region). To make this deal work......they were supposed to depart that region at 8 AM yesterday....ride the Bahn railway (ICE), and be in Wiesbaden around 3 PM. Yeah, it's a 7-hour ride.
We showed up at the 'hall' at 6:30 PM, and typically....the doors would be open and you could make your way to your seat. Well.....the doors weren't open. We waited at the entry.
About four minutes prior to 7 PM.....they opened the doors, and around 7:12....out walked the head guy of the music festival who gave this 3-minute apology.
Basically, the Bahn had troubles running on schedule, and the arrival was delayed in Wiesbaden by three hours. So they barely got to the city at 6 PM. They'd done a last-minute set-up and marginal rehearsal.....delaying everything.
Then the Hessen Cultural Minister came up to give her apology. I question the necessity of so much apology.
But this brings up the whole 'believe-in-us' campaign of the Bahn, and how a simple delay....leads to another delay, and you end up with 600 folks sitting in a hall....waiting. If the delay had gone for another 90-odd minutes....I would imagine they would have cancelled the orchestra event and had to refund the tickets.
Adding to this...the Green Party is working hard to cancel in-country flights, so your only option for travel would be to drive, or ride a train/bus situation. If your time mattered, then the option for air would not exist.
I'm not anti-Bahn.....it's just that you always need a plan 'B', and accept the fact that railway system in Germany isn't perfect. I'll add.....in the past twenty years, with all the evolution going on....these bars and pubs that used to exist at stations....for people to drink while waiting for a mess to clear up....have shut down. You basically need to bring a bottle of booze with you....to comfort you in this waiting periods.
My regional public TV guys reported this incident, and it's likely going to get more attention.
For folks who aren't aware of it....there are a fair number of migrants who've settled into Germany from Eritrea (the nation that sits between the Sudan and Saudi Arabia).
Why leave Eritrea? Well....the general discussion goes to a authoritarian government. It is a single-party government.....probably for almost thirty years. Adding to this....there's at least ten different 'governments-in-exile'....each claiming their party/group....represents the people. Some people believe that some of these groups (in exile) are really agent-provocateur-parties....meaning they work for the government.
So, here in the Giessen area of Germany, there are a number of Eritrean people who've settled into the area. The Giessen German folks felt it'd be nice to have a fest and give recognition to new migrants.
The fest opened up on Saturday, and an attack started up with some Eritrean folks showing up...with knives, iron bars and batons....to attack those in attendance. Cops soon arrived, and the attackers responded onto them with rocks.
Several of the attack-folks ended up arrested, and the fest itself....cancelled by the police.
The basic story? The governments-in-exile (who may be 'clean' or may be agent-provocateur groups)....have gone to court to have the fest shut down...claiming it's (the fest itself) is manipulated or run by the dictatorship back in Eritrea itself.
Do the German culture folks grasp all of this? I doubt it.
Do the German cops grasp it? Yes, and they are probably shaking their head because you have too many folks BSing the general public and the Erirean community itself.
I think if you laid this out to the typical German....they'd start to look around and ask about other migrant groups, and if there were agent-provocateur groups for them as well. It might be a frightening thing to realize.
Out of the top one-hundred 'hot' topics that Germans will engage upon and get hyped-up about....is the TV tax. The younger the person....the more likely they state the case that the TV tax is corrupted and 'unfair'. A fair number of the 18 to 25 year olds....don't watch public TV, or listen to public radio....to which I'd say it's probably in the one-third of this age group.
Anytime that an event occurs where wasteful efforts occur within German public TV, these people have a platform to ask in public circles....why force me to pay the TV tax (currently at 18.36 Euro per month, per household).
The public TV response....to put quality media out, it costs money.
So enters the case of the RBB 'boss' who has created a dozen-odd events which were poorly thought through, and some money decisions were not laid out in front of the 'board'. The luxury limo with massage seats? That was probably a pretty stupid blunder to admit in public.
But this brings the issue of the dozen other public TV/radio 'bosses' up. Public frustration now exists, and there's probably going to have to be a audit to take place. My best guess....a number of stupid things will be brought up and there might be fifty-odd managers and 'bosses' let go....to clean up the mess over the whole system.
Evolving public TV in Germany? It's been a topic in existence for over twenty years. Once Digital Audio Broadcasting (DAB+) came around.....the radio system should have been under heavy consideration for a change. The necessity to run two major news networks via ARD and ZDF? That's probably another area which should have evolved into just one news service.
Will anything occur now? It certainly won't be the coalition government pushing this. The board of governors might get hyped up and demand some demonstration of change, but I doubt that they have that type of interest.
1. Kinda interesting development over at RBB (the Berlin public TV network). The scandal developing has reached a point where the interior editorial committee has stood up and told the top level of management for the network to resign. Matter is apparently centered on lack of trust.
This whole 'bonus' gimmick that was developed and used for the top level....is probably driving a lot of this discontent.
Problems ahead? Lets say that you dump the top fifteen-odd people now....who fills their positions?
2. WELT had a piece to discuss one of the largest immigration flows in recent memory....Russian Jews are exiting Russia...to resettle in Israel. Most have marketable skills, and high education levels.
3. There's an interesting piece over at N-TV this AM.....talking about a new statistic. Six out of ten German families are no longer able to save anything....the balance of their income is for the increasing cost of food, energy and fuel. I definitely recommend a read.
4. This week....quietly, the EU ended supervision over Greece's financial affairs. Good update over at N-TV about this episode.
For those who don't remember.....Greece spent a ton of money that it did not have....got deeply into debt, and various loans had to be created for them to survive.
5. Finally, the Bundesbank is suggesting by December....inflation will hit 10-percent for 2022. Yeah, it's not thrilling news.
Yes, one stop in Berlin. 29 September 2022, at the Tempodrom Complex. Seating still left? I'd say from the review....about one-third of the seats are still unsold. Tickets start at 49 Euro.
First time in Germany? Yes, as far as I know.
Expectation? There's going to be a week after this event where German public TV forums take his discussion and open up a dialog on woke issues, trends, and common sense.
If you bring up Peterson....I doubt if more than 1-percent of German society is familiar with his books or topics.
Opening up a 'can of worms'? Oh yes, without doubt.
1. With this appearance before a 'truth-commission' (on the Cum-ex scandal in Hamburg) yesterday by Chancellor Scholz....how did things go?
Well....you got two things out of him. First, he admitted there were meetings with bankers but he really doesn't remember much of these meetings.....bunch of chatter over money apparently but it doesn't seem like he was interested in any of this money BS.
Second, he said it bluntly, as mayor....he had no influence over the Warburg Bank.
You get the impression that he just walks around in a daze for hours at a time. I've worked with managers like this.....who attended two-hour meetings and couldn't remember anything from the meeting.
2. There was a lot of hype this week over ARD public TV news about the glaciers of Germany melting. What's the deal?
Well....if you watch ARD news, they strongly hint that those dust storms from Africa laid down a bunch of dust....which interacted with the sun, and triggered more melting than normal.
Then they added....it was a moderate winter this past year.
Then they added....the hot summer heat.
I'd add a personal note here. This year...I threw a fan into the corner of the living room this summer...pointed to the ceiling and shifting air around in the room. So I'd set my normal glass of iced-up water (with ten cubes) on a table by the chair. Strangely enough, within 20 minutes, with air flow....the ice was gone. Air flow, just in general, melts ice at a faster pace. If you had zero or moderate air flow....it'd be a different story.
(Note, I'm not a rocket scientist...nor will I be writing papers over this phenonium....but there's some 64 letter German word for this scientific principal.)
3. This collapse of the Montenegro government here in Europe this week....a big deal?
First, if you asked Germans where the hell Montenegro sits? About five-percent would point it out on a map.
Second, what this collapse was really about? The PM of the newly formed government went and did some crazy action of signing an agreement with the Serbian Orthodox Church. The deal? It gave special rights/recognition to the religious group. One of the coalition partners of the new PM's government was very anti-Serbian Orthodox Church, and weren't really informed of how this deal was going.
On a scale of one to ten.....in Europe, this was a '1' for the most part. In Montenegro? Most would probably give it a '5' and thought it was not such a big deal. Now they have to face up to a new election, and more political bickering.
4. Will hydrogen end up fixing the whole energy crisis in Germany and Europe?
Well....yeah, without any doubt.
How far away is commercial energy production with hydrogen? More than twenty years away, and that's the tragic part of this discussion.
5. What's this firing scandal developing with RBB (Berlin public TV network)?
It's a curious thing....back around 2018, the 'boss' at RBB (this newly fired individual) got into some confrontation with a media manager of the organization. The person was nowhere near retirement age, so Schlesinger (the network boss at the time) cooked up a firing where they basically agreed to pay the employee a yearly check (not a one-time-walk-out-the-door situation like you'd normally see).
At this point (summer of 2022), the person has made 300,000 Euro. By the end? It will amount to 700,000 Euro....all coming from the public TV tax.
Yeah, on the crapped-up scale....this is a '10'.
Added to this comedy, someone figured out that after the firing occurred....RBB actually paid out 20,000 Euro as a 'bonus' to the individual let go.
All of this resulting in huge public frustration? Oh....guaranteed. There will be probably three or four truth-commissions coming out of this mess, and it'll result in dozens of public TV managers being 'let-go'.
