The way this Cum-ex banking thing is going....Scholz has holes in his calendar and his story is continually being pushed. Presently? I'd say it's a 30-percent chance that they will eventually (probably by early 2023) with some type of investigation and potential court time.
So, onto the scenarios.
If this court thing came up now (end of September)? Well....he'd likely resign and the SPD would have an executive meeting to select a 'filler'....which the party would have to agree upon, then have the Greens and FDP Party agree. For the FDP....I think no matter who is selected....they'd readily agree. For the Greens? No, they've improved their numbers in the past six months, and are way ahead of the SPD (probably by seven points minimum).
In this scenario, the Greens might say.....we want the Chancellor slot, and you fill Habeck's job....letting Habeck (the vice-Chancellor) move up.
I'm not sure that the SPD would agree to this.
Who can fill via the SPD Party? Well....it's a LONG step down from Scholz, and I can't think of anyone who is dynamic and ready for the job.
The odds of another election? You REALLY don't want that occurring at this point, with all the energy crap going on.
Andrea Nahles being pulled back in? That would be a wild scenario, but I could see a third of the SPD Party believing she's qualified.
If the election scenario occurred? Right now....the CDU (Merkel's old group) actually stand at the top of the spectrum, with 30-odd percent of the public vote. Greens are 10 points behind. The FDP is marginally around 7 percent. The Linke Party have fallen below 5 percent. The SPD would be lucky to get around 17 percent. Finally, the AfD would be near 8 to 10 percent on voting.
For the benefit of the country....the Greens Habeck would be the better choice at this point, and fit well into the job.
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