Thursday, August 25, 2022

The Ten Fundamental Mistakes for Russia In the Ukraine War

 1.  The conscripts are marginally prepared for the action they've seen.  Most came in and got a couple of weeks of boot-camp, and were then delivered to the 'front'. 

2.  Leadership-wise, it would seem that when you dig up and push the commanders out into the field....they were probably more prepared for a WW II confrontation than a modern war.  Adding to this....a fair number of the major leaders at the front....have died in action.  

3.  The tank-versus-tank war, which is what the Russians were prepared for....never occurred.

4.  Fuel-trucks....to keep the tank war moving....became a problem when the Ukrainians figured out how to hit them.  Without fuel, the Russian front didn't progress.

5.  Missiles and rockets matter.

6.  The Russians were not prepared for a high-causality situation in battle.  It should be noted....even if you were just wounded, because of crappy medical care, you are likely finished for the duration of the war.  

7.  The Ukrainians would appear to be getting a lot of advice/intel from various 'outsiders'.  I don't think the Russians expected that.  The Ukrainian strategy has evolved....week after week.  You can marginally say that for the Russians.

8.  Whoever gave bad advice to Putin for the start of this....is still providing bad advice even today.  There's no evidence that Putin or his staff got smarter as time went by.

9.  It would appear that the Oligarch folks scammed probably fifty percent of the procurement budget for the Army....for over twenty years. 

10.  Bringing Russian guys out of prison, with an enlistment contract.....inflicts a low marginal and non-obedient Conscript force into developing.  

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