What Happens if Russia Can't Have Or Control The Crimea?

 I rarely see this chatter by the journalists, so I spent several hours this week....focused on the Crimea, Russia and the Ukraine.

For size comparison...the Crime is about 80-percent the size of my regional German state....Hessen.

Back before the 'grab' (2014) took place, Russians made up about 65-percent of the population.  Ukrainians made up around 15-percent.  And Tarter people (the natural inhabitants of the land for the past thousand-odd years...made up around 12-percent.  Toward the mid-1800s...the Tarter folks went from 80-percent to 50-percent....in a matter of 50 years....they've been in decline ever since.

It's not a heavily populated island....only 2.4-million (Hessen, for reference has 6-million).

What the people mostly survived off of?  Well....pearls, oysters, fishing, agriculture, some minor industry, and tourism (by visits to the ports or by Russian tourists flying in and consuming a vast amount of sunshine).

At some point in the 1980s and 1990s....the Crimea became this health destination where you went for wellness or rehab.  In some ways, it became legendary in scale, and if you walked around Moscow....most everyone today will tell you that either they've been there, or friends of theirs, or relatives have been there.  Yeah, it's become like Orlando is in Florida.

After 2014, the Russians kinda claimed the island as theirs, and this bridge was built on the east end.  The bridge made a big difference in bringing in consumable goods.  If the bridge is removed or destroyed....a major segment of the success of the Crimea for the past ten years....will be gone.

In the period before the war (Christmas to New Year's)....there were around 250,000 tourists who flew in and enjoyed Crimea....spending a ton of money on the local economy.  

In 2019, before Covid....the Crimea suggested that they had almost 4.5-million guests who came for the 'wellness'.  

So I come to this odd aspect....if the island isn't safe, or controlled by the Russians....what happens to the economy?  Tourism decline, possible industry decline, and a spiral effect on goods?  None of that plays well for the economy.  I would imagine if you asked the typical Russian about 'safety' and the Crimea....most would have a grin, and just say that they wouldn't go in 2022 for 'sun and fun'.

The sad thing about this....if they were on their own, and not involved in the war....they'd be like Cyprus or Crete.  They'd have tourism from Russia and Europe.  They'd probably see forty flights a day bringing tourists in and spending money recklessly on hotels, booze and food.   

As much as the war/special operation is about the Ukraine....the Crimea is a segment attached to this discussion in the end.