There's a good interview off N-TV in Germany this AM, which I recommend. The topic? Possible end of the Ukraine-Russia war.
So they went to a international law expert (Matthias Herdegen), and he states something that a number of people have hinted at for the past month....military fatigue for Russia.
It's not just tanks and equipment....it's manpower.
Russia never had a unlimited situation. They had x-amount of Conscripts (marginally trained) and x-amount of tanks/vehicles to conduct a limited war (probably in the range of six to eight weeks. In the way that the Ukraine reacted, and used anti-tank weapons? The Russians simply weren't up to this type of warfare.
Herdegen is blunt....he thinks that the war probably will start to wind down by the end of 2022, and close out in some fashion by the 12th month. Whether Putin is there or not....doesn't matter.
I noticed in the past week....a bit of discussion over some Russian conscripts who'd lost their will to fight and were sent to a conditioning 'camp' (more or less a torture situation, where your attitude improved or they went to more intense steps). This apparently started up in July, and I would imagine it'll double in size by October.
The Crimea at the heart of this 'end'? The Russians always had this idea that the island would remain and be Russian in the end. In recent weeks....it's now obvious that the Ukraine has stamped the Crimea as a target, and it's days as a vacation spot for Russians probably have come to an end. Convincing locals to just up and leave? I think that's become the Ukraine's strategy.
Does any of this mean a collapse of the Kremlin's leadership? I seriously doubt that, but some of those pro-war folks might find themselves excluded from Putin's circle in the future.
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