When The War Concludes

 There is a five-star written piece today on Focus, which goes to the topic....what happens if the Ukraine-Russia war ends today....written by Tobias Debiel.  I'd strongly recommend a read of the 8-minute article.

This subject has been on my mind for three months now, but he has encapsulated the whole scenario to follow the end.  So the five key points?

1.  There has to be a total exchange of prisoners, and no BS suggestions that certain prisoners cannot be returned 'home'.  The idea of some Russian or Ukrainian court activity to hold people?  No.  Now, if there are charges of inhumane treatment....let the international court handle it.

2.  The ceasefire?  It has to have several non-players on the scene (I'd suggest Brazil, India, and Egypt).  

3.  Something of a protected status for the Ukraine has to follow....which may not make Putin very happy.

4.  Somehow, an agreement of some type has to exist over the Crimea, and this far-east 'zone'.  Whether they stay in the hands of the Ukraine or Russia, or just become totally independent.....has to be resolved.

5.  Debiel brings up the fifth ingredient as being the rebuilding of the Ukraine....as some incentive to come to the table. I tend to agree, but on a timeline?  You could be talking about twenty-five years to fix all the damage done.  

I do agree....there is some end-point to all of this.  I also don't think that Europe will quietly go back to Russia-friendly relations.  It will take an entire generation to pass before they get the 'friendly' card again.

I also think that a migration of Russians will be apparent for this year, and the next decade to follow.  It might be five million that exit....it might be ten million to exit.  But I don't think economy of Russia will return to normal for years.  

As for the rebuilding of the Russian military complex?  Zero chance.  Between the Oligarch community, their scams, and the cost of a rebuilding?   There's just not enough money to finance the whole thing.  Russia....militarily, is finished except for nuke warfare. 

To be honest, after observing all the issues shown....I'd even have doubts if half the ICBM missiles could function as advertised.

Anyway....it's a good article and worth reading.  The war will come to an end....sooner or later, and then a new evolution will take place.