Yesterday, the story came out that the draft number (mandated now) will be 137,000 Conscripts being drafted up.
Russia drafts twice a year (April and October).
How this number reflects reality? It's a 10-percent higher number, than previous episodes for the draft.
Will young men readily accept this, or will there be some type of exit going on?
My humble belief is that around a quarter million young men (mostly in the age group of 17 to 19), will be looking for an exit out of the country. It might be toward Finland, or to the south into the 'stan' republics.
All of this an indicator of things going sour? Well....between wounded and dead, there's an issue brewing. Add to it....the contracted-out guys probably are starting to have their fill, and would prefer something less chaotic.
How they fill the billets? I suspect more than half of the billets will be lower IQ guys (in the 60 to 70 range), and likely to get just enough boot-camp to last four weeks in a war-zone before they screw up and die.
It's a harsh reality.
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