Monday, June 10, 2024

10 June 2024: Four German News Stories

1.  EU election results:

CDU/CSU: 30 percent

SPD: 13.9 percent

Greens: 11.9 percent

BSW: 6.2 percent

AfD: 15.9 percent

Linke: 2.7 percent

FDP: 5.2 percent

How to read this?  Well....back about six months ago....both ARD/ZDF (the two public TV networks) went out and tried to be anti-AfD....slamming them  for being far-right extreme, with the other 7 parties helping as much as possible.  The polls from last month indicated that AfD might drop just below 10 percent.  Well....that all failed for the most part.

All of the left or left-of-center parties?  Except for BSW (their first voting chance)...they all did crappy.

The juvenile vote?  The new 16/17 year old  kids voting?  They were supposed to  be this amazing add-on to the left/left-of-center folks.  Based on numbers....I'd say from the eastern 'quarter' of Germany....one out of three kids voted for AfD  (meaning they bought into the message).   The experts now being worried over the voting trend and that the juvenile vote might not be a good thing.

France in the EU voting?  That's another interesting story....Macron's party barely got 16-percent in the voting.  The LePen Party got twice that. So Macron announced last night....he's dissolving Parliament there and having a snap-election in two months.  Odds here?  LePen folks probably will win there.

Belgium in the EU voting?  Far-right party shocked everyone.....literally the same story.  PM offered up his resignation last night....elections likely to be called shortly.

What's really going on?  I'd say a 'perfect-storm' has arrived in Europe.  Economics are not that great....cost of living escalating...some anti-migrant sentiment brewing...the support of the 'Last Generation' environmentalists hasn't been a positive thing...cost of energy up....and so on.  

Could the German gov't (SPD-coalition) collapse?  Recent chatter has intensified and I'd give it a 50-percent of a collapse by October.  The current trend?  It's positive with the right/right-of-center folks.   

2.  That attack on the PM of Denmark?  Only updates: Cops now say the 39 year old man didn't seem to have any terror motive.  Some say that he merely 'pushed' the PM (suggesting he didn't even know who she was).  PM injury?  Well....whip-lash.  Place being where alcohol would be served?  Yeah, I was looking at video of the site and it kinda looks that way.

3.  On the idea of less war-front news via German TV?  Well....this is getting painfully obvious that it's a LOT less video coverage than  in 2022.  

4.  I was watching a N-TV segment on German heat-pumps....sales are dropping like a rock.  Curious how it was pushed for a year.....then the hype simply disappeared.  

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