Monday, November 9, 2015

Numbers Change Nationally

I noticed this morning that Bild (a German national newspaper) did a political poll, and they've trended the parties and the amount of support from the public.

Presently....the CDU folks have lost a few points, and at best can only be certain of 34-percent of the public, if a vote were conducted.  Where did their previous support go?  AfD.

With the numbers in place....the AfD Party is at 10-percent.

The SPD Party has remained mostly stable in recent weeks...with 24-percent, and the Greens still remain at 10-percent.

The folks leaving CDU?  Not much is said but one might assume that the general public thinks that the CDU needs to be punished in some way or pushed to change on the current immigration crisis.  I might add that we presently are not in any heated election cycle and AfD is doing this with minimum effort.

Now, come early January.....three German states will start an election cycle....ending in mid-March of 2016.  I might take a guess that more public talk and active use of social media.....will trigger the numbers for the CDU to shift further.  It wouldn't surprise me this national poll situation shifts to the AfD being closer to 16-to-18 percent by March of next year.

If the CDU goes below 25-percent.....it'll be a catastrophic point and the news media will go into a feeding frenzy.  A key point will be the AfD candidates in the state-by-state election situation, and if they can stand up in a debate and present some positive image.  So far, it's been a very small crowd in AfD with potential.

One might ask....how the SPD continues with it's public support of the immigration episode....but apparently there are enough Germans who feel positive of asylum support and generally vote SPD.  The same can be said of the Green Party.

Bottom line?  Politically, it's a charged-up mess and public sentiment does now matter.

1 comment:

Jess Short said...

The problem is, there are no viable alternatives. The SPD thinks they can take a stroll out back of the Bundestag and pluck money from the trees that grow there. The Greens want everyone to go back to a time when everyone rode horses. (except them, they will ride they're BMW 700s) The AFD is just plumb batshit crazy. The CDU will bend to the other "Grand Coalition" members without a whimper. All the others really don't have a chance, so they will lie down and get there bellies rubbed by the big dogs. The one thing every politician wants......there unearned paycheck every month.