Wednesday, November 11, 2015

The Nation of Bavaria?

It's not worth getting all worried or disturbed.....but a CSU politician (from the sister party of the CDU) spoke up for the Bavarian party and said that because of the national refugee chaos....this is all the more reason to discuss breaking Bavaria off from Berlin and going the potential route of exiting Germany.

Steffen Vogel is simply one single figure within the CSU and probably says some creative but unrealistic things at times.

The idea of a Bavarian 'nation'?

Scotland has been on this trend for decades and still has not crossed the line to have enough people support the idea.  Bavaria is more or less in the same boat.  I would have doubt that you could get no more than twenty-percent of the Bavarian public to support such a measure.  Although I would say this...prior to the refugee crisis would have been probably ten-percent of the general public in Bavaria thinking this way.

Bavaria, prior to 1867....was NOT part of the German state or Prussia.  This is one of those little history things.  As a Kingdom, it allied with Austria for a number of decades, and after a Austrian-Prussian conflict....they were drawn over to the Prussians.

It should also be noted that up until 1918....on paper, they were referred to as the Kingdom of Bavaria, and only after WW I did they exist as a Republic.  After WW II, they came to be noted as a "Free State".

So, one has to admit that they've not exactly been part of the German state for that long of a period.

As for economics?  This is the odd part of the story.  There is currently a court episode going on with Hessen and Bavaria suing the German state over the distribution of tax money.  Both are the king-makers of Germany and put the most in terms of income tax within the German pot.  They both want a higher distribution level created for them, and more money coming back to their states.  The German court system is trying to sort this, and there is some fear that the judges will end up forcing the Bundestag to invent a whole new distribution system.

The odds of a Bavarian nation progressing with more public support.  You'd have to have three things occur (at least in my mind).

First, there'd have to a major failure with the refugee crisis and the Berlin handling....mainly, that Merkel loses the Chancellorship and the SPD Party ending up with the leadership role and drifting further into a mess.  Second, the cost of the crisis escalates, courts forcing more funding requirements than the public has an appetite to cover would trigger more hostility in Bavaria.  Third, if no real border establishment occurs via the Berlin power structure, it'll open up the discussion of why Bavaria can't manage it's own border.

This is something that shouldn't happen.  The problem one thought this type of event would have occurred five years ago, and look where we are today.

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