Ukraine 'Invasion'?

If you follow the German public news folks (ARD/ZDF), for the past month....there's been a lot of chatter over the idea of a Russian 'invasion' of the Ukraine early 2022.  

Numbers?  The general number cited is some type of invasion force of 175k to 200k Russian troops.

Any real truth to this chatter?  Some point to a increased presence around the eastern border of the Ukraine, but in terms of real numbers?  Nothing that you'd really trust.  It might be strictly 10,000 Russian troops....it might be 100,000 troops.  One US source (news media only) said the number of 92,000.  

So what's going on?  I'll cite four observations here:

1.  In terms of US foreign policy and strategic positioning....one can say that the US is probably at one of the weakest points since the Cuban missile crisis.  The White House is mostly run by a committee of differing folks.....not by President Biden himself.  

2.  Germany has a brand new Chancellor (coming up Wed), with a new collection of Ministers.  The new Foreign Minister is Baerbeck (Green Party) and on the tough-talk scale....I'd give her a '4' (out of a possible ten).  

3.  Logistically speaking....the US and the UK are in a harsh position right now, with Europe mostly in a minor position.  Natural gas flow from Russia into Germany?  It's a big deal....but hey.....Trump told them about this weakness two years ago.

4.  Putin's entire agenda here is simply to show that he's got some cards to play in the game, and he can draw this into a six-week 'game'.  On the other side, the US is set in January to start tossing out around 1k Special Forces folks and 10k US Marines for being non-vax.  

End-result if this occurs?  I'd pick a DMZ-like position...about 25 miles inside of the Ukraine.  I'd suggest at least 50k US troops likely permanently based on the western side of the Ukraine, and 10k European troops somewhere in the mix.  On the other side....around 50k to 90k Russian troops.  

If you were looking for other developments?  Well....not to really hype it up....there's been suggestions of conflict re-starting in Bosnia.  Mini-revolution situation?  It's possible.  Influenced by Serbs and Russians?  Yeah.

Also, have you looked at recent weeks of Chinese activity over near Taiwan?  That also might be timed and trigger a US reaction there.  

So, spring of 2022 a hectic period?  Yeah, and I might take my stock portfolio and sell a bit....waiting for a January crash.