Tuesday, August 9, 2022

What Happens If The Cum-Ex Scandal Develops Around Chancellor Scholz (SPD Party)?

 Well....NTV discussed this matter here in the AM today.  Ever since the 200,000 Euro were found in a bank deposit box of a retired SPD official from Hamburg last week....there's been chatter going on.

Scholz might be totally out of the loop.....he might know one or two minor details....or he knew things and just agreed to overlook them.  You can't tell.

This dialog of the essay leads to this....in six to eight months, if more develops and Scholz is some individual who knew bits and pieces of the banking affair.....where does that lead the government?

The SPD Party would hold an executive council meeting (probably the top forty to fifty members).  There would be two questions....how much trouble is it to defend Scholz and carry this government on.....and if you did 'dump' the guy....could you sell/rebrand the coalition government without another election?

To the first question....the chief problem is the two partners of the coalition government.  If both the Greens and FDP suggest Scholz has fallen deep into this crisis....that will make the SPD decision fairly simple.

But who could they offer as the party replacement, that the Greens and FDP would accept?  Nancy Faeser (Interior Minister)?  Lambrecht from the Defense Ministry?  Would the FDP/Greens accept any of these people....or just voice another election?

If you held a sudden election....where do things go?  Presently, there's no doubt that the CDU Party, with Merz.....would carry 30-plus percent, and thus....he would be the Chancellor, with the Green Party likely to have 20-to-24 percent....to be the partner.  The FDP would fall out of the coalition business, and probably not reach more than 8-to-10 percent on a national vote.  

In this scenario, I would imagine the FDP would prefer to find some suitable replacement for Scholz, and try to survive until 2025's next normal election.  

How damaged is the SPD in this scenario?  They might fall as low as 14-percent if a sudden election were called, and Scholz had some guilt on what he knew of the scandal.  

So the final word....you really don't want to have all this occur, while the natural gas crisis is going on.  Also, you don't want Lambrecht or Faeser trying to build a consensus when both are just fillers for a scandal situation.  

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