Drunk Story

 Here in my local region....over at Beibesheim.....a cop patrol was doing a early AM patrol.  

They came to some intersection, and pulled up behind a car.   Light turns green.....the car in front does nothing.  Eventually, the light turns red.  

The cops are wondering...something wrong with the guy?

So they get out and walk up to the door....guy is just laying back in the seat....either dead or asleep....so they knock on the door.

Nothing much happens.

They knock more....pulling on the handle (locked).

Eventually the guy 'wakes' up.  They want him to step out.

So he steps out, and they administer the booze test.  He's a 2.6 mille.  Fairly drunk.

Check on the license?  He has none.  

Craftsmen Story

 Among the various crisis and chaotic things we have in Germany presently (I'd say at least ten of them going on with the public shaking their head)....there's this construction crisis building up. Focus did a piece on this today and I'd recommend a read.

So, here's the reality....you can go back around 18 months month and ask carpenters about items required for building houses, and they'd say....the hardware stores are hit-and-miss.  Some things are there.....some things are back-order.  So you might be 50-percent into building a new home....finding that x-amount of lumber won't be around for at least 90 days.

Focus talks to this new issue....craftsman.  Germany has around 5-million individuals in the trade....with 360k apprentice 'kids'.  The analysts say....it's not enough.

Delays are now built into each project (minimum of 11 weeks....up to 16 weeks).

Analysts are saying that the country needs a minimum of 250,000 more craftsmen....for the projects on the table.

Where they will come from?  I kinda doubt from Germany itself.  If you were in poor-off country and wanted a immigration chance....I'd strongly suggest a craftsman school and some certificates....to entice German interest.  

Does My German Mayor Know the Precise Population of the Village?

 YES.

When he/she says it's 4,404.....there's some strict German guidance on people moving in or leaving. Within 30 days, you are supposed to announce yourself to the city hall.  This means a visit, with your phone and address.  

Leaving the village....the national rule is that you announce your 'leaving' to the old village as well.  

So you can generally go up and the mayor can x-number, and it's about a 99-percent chance of being correct.

Homeless folks affecting this?  Well....if we had some....yeah, it'd affect the number.  I'm pretty sure that Frankfurt would say that 2,000 homeless people are in the city and only half of them are officially registered.  

This is the one absolute factor of Germany today....this list is maintained, and it leads to the voting situation.  If you are registered....you don't get a letter, and you don't vote in local, state or federal elections.  

On My Mind

 I saw this discussion (forum event) start up this week in Germany, where some Americans and some Germans discussed....do you have more freedom in Germany, than in the US?

The majority of the views....'YES', more freedom or better freedom in Germany.  How they explained it and how I interpreted it.....in Germany, the 'herd' is allowed to roam, and mingles somewhere in the middle of the field, and is more happy with their grazing 'allowances'.  

From their chatter, it wasn't really more freedom....it was decisive freedom (you could have a daily jellyroll at the mid-morning pause, but it had 50-percent less sugar type of thinking).

 Oh, I agree...there are certain German freedoms you don't get in the US:

Example: Prostitution is legal in Germany.

Example: You can still drive at a unlimited speed on 70-percent of autobahns.

Example: You can still drink 'pure' brewed German beer from a 1516 mandate....no additives mixed in.

Example: You can still get pretty drunk and wasted while on vacation in another country.....getting rid of all that wasted frustration you gathered up all year.

US limits on life:

Example: I grew up in a dry county in Alabama.....that only in the past twenty years.....has gone to 'wet' and allowed beer/wine.  

Do I think much about this freedom 'talk', either via the German or American hyped-up discussion?  NO.  Generally, I'm doing pretty much what I want....unless you write some regulation to prevent from doing X or Y.  

My gut tells me that the less you regulate society....the better off you are in the end.  If you say I have these 252 'freedoms'.....you are stressing the point that outside of each of these 'freedoms'.....there's some regulations involved.  

I used to live in a German village that had some guy at least two evening a week around 10 PM....would play his trumpet about 15 minutes on the balcony.  He wasn't a bad musician.....but it came over the years to irritate various residents and they kept wanting regulation by the mayor to halt this.  The mayor kept fighting this off....not wanting to add more regulation. 

So, as you can tell.....I'm not into this discussion of more or less freedoms....I'm just in the mindset to avoid more regulations.  

I don't want micro Pepsi cans with just enough for 100 calories.  

I don't want hefty fines for using too much electrical power for my status.  

I don't want someone measuring my farm and telling that instead of forty cows....I can only have 33.  

I don't want a cat limit defined as public policy.  

I don't want a bacon limit defined as no more than 16 stripes per month.  

I don't desire a cocktail limit of two per weekend.  

I don't want to be told that when I wear sandals....I need to wear a pair of black socks as a fashion statement policy. 

Less regulation is better than more freedom.  

My Minuses of Germany Essay

 This is my list of things that are minuses in Germany (in 2022):

1.  It just seems like trains are less likely to run on time today (2022) than in 1978.  Cancellations, halts in the middle of a route, etc.....all add up.

2.  For whatever reason, a number of restaurants that you walk into....will only have one brand of beer, and it's the poorest selection possible (I won't mention the name). I've reached the point where I note this....I order water instead of beer.

3.  I appreciate all the German pro-dog lifestyles, and dragging 'Shep' off with you on trips....but when 'Shep' is loaded with fleas, and sitting next to me on a train....I really want to just exit immediately. 

4.  There are ten times the number of beggars existing in urbanized areas today, than in 1984.

5.  Probably a quarter of all commercial TV programming in Germany is reality TV stuff, and half of it is crap.

6.  It's pretty much guaranteed on train trips that either the toilets are broke, the AC can't handle the load, or the train is standing room only.

7.  Some of these German autobahn rest-rooms....are not fit for man or beast.  The ones that are clean....require a 50-cent entry.  

8.  Unless you carry a map and compass with you....most of these trails through the woods have only rough markings on where the trail is leading you. 

9.  Germans today (compared against the 1980s) have huge expectations for things to function.  When they fail....this become a doom discussion and occupies their mind for hours.  Every year, this problem seems to expand.  Politicians will waste a vast number of hours trying to explain why things fail these days.  

10.  With this deposit bottle business now mandated....it's a 50-50 shot when I show up at a German grocery and scan my dozen bottles....that the machine will only accept ten of the twelve.  I'll put the unaccepted bottles in the car....drive to another grocery later, and their machine scans the two bottles.  Why?  Unknown....but this is now a weekly event.  

My Pluses of Germany Essay

 This is my list (fitting for 2022) of pluses in life in Gemany:

1.  I have an App on my phone which enables me to figure the best route/schedule for rail/bus travel....buy the ticket....then engage in plan 'B' action when the route has 'failed'.  

You could dump me off anywhere, and the 'system' would save me.  

2.  I have a taste for good German beer, which I can find at most beer gardens.

3.  On about 70-percent of autobahns....there is no speed limit.  

4.  Just about everyone (for over sixty years) who has been connected to the autobahn system in terms of design....has done a bang-up great job, and ought to get a medal.

5.  You can use the trail system and walk a thousand kilometers over a month, and be completely safe.

6.  If you aren't that happy with options of TV viewing with public TV or commercial TV.....there's tons of options for streaming video.

7.  Bad and poorly run restaurants fail.   

8.  In most towns and villages.....you can go out in the darkest of night, and feel safe.   (I might say otherwise in highly urbanized cities)

9.  The quality of police always reinforces the idea of protection.

10.  Public forums via public TV....tend to orientate you to a particular topic and fill in all the questions you had. 

Hahn

 Hahn Airport got sold off again today.  For those who haven't followed this.....around 2016, the EU told the Pfalz that they were sponsoring too many regional airports.  

Hahn, for about 15 years had attempted to run as a commercial operation, and been a failure. 

So in 2017....a Chinese company came up and bought the airport....but the cash promised....didn't really come in.  So a long court episode unfolded.  A new company called Swift Conjoy (Gmbh, out of Frankfurt, with little on accomplishments) stepped in and bought the airport.

How much was the deal?  Unknown.  

Can it be made profitable?  My humble opinion is that it was basically fitted to be an operation where small transport companies could fly in and avoid the costly deal at Frankfurt.  The problem is.....you need to run a tower, a fire department, and basic support structure....so when you add this up, and get zero Euro from the state....it's a challenge.  

I should note....Hahn isn't that close to Mainz or Frankfurt, and getting regular commercial traffic was always marginal in the past.  

Story Over Real Estate

 Interesting real estate article on Focus, which I'd recommend.

Blunt forecast?  Over next 15 years.....over most of Germany, a downward trend on prices.

About 15 areas that might be on the gain, but the other 300-odd areas....loss of pricing.  

Where I live (Wiesbaden)....probably a 15,000 Euro downward trend expected.

Area that seems to be on the upswing?  Bavaria.....appears that more than half of the state is going to see positive numbers for another decade.  

Same story for Berlin and Brandenburg.  

I'd recommend a read.  It'll be a shock to some where this next decade is taking property values.

Travel Chaos

 If they didn't have enough travel problems in Germany already...this morning....more crap 'arrived'.

The German air traffic control (out of Frankfurt) have announced this AM that technical difficulties are popping up and causing some disruptions (not just over Germany itself).

So there is a prediction of more cancellations or delays coming up (not just today).

If you had some plans for July/August for air travel.....but haven't bought the tickets yet....I might reconsider things.

Bahn Bonus Program

 The German railway folks (the Bahn)....for years and years....had a 'bonus' program....which most were not aware of....mostly because they didn't ride the rail system enough to grasp this.

This old program is going away, and the new program (called 'BahnBonus') will arrive shortly. 

New deal?  Mostly designed for people use the trains a good bit, and will offer Platinum, Gold and Silver levels.  You need to figure around 1,500 Euro a year to be spent....to earn Silver's level.  Platinum?  Man, you have to do 6,000 Euro a year in business to reach that level.

Chief things you can get?  I looked over the program and there's two things of interest.  One....you can get short-notice reservations in the system....meaning you book a trip leaving in a few hours and demand a reserved seat.  Two....you can have a free beer in a DB-lounge....eight times a year.  

These DB-lounges?  Well....no one cites the number but I kinda doubt that it goes past a dozen train stations in all of Germany.  The only one near me is in Frankfurt.  

Who would really use the lounge?  Well....it's intended for first-class travelers, and mostly used by people making long extended trips....like Munich to Hamburg, and you get off the train for two or three hours to 'chill'.  I'll admit....in the 1970s....there probably was a good reason to have these type of lounges.  Today?  It's probably a waste of resources.

NATO in the News

 Finland and Sweden now in NATO?  Yes.

Turkey (Erdogan in particular) basically gave in.  There is some type of paperwork that Finland and Sweden signed at a table to make Turkey happy.  I think external pressure came up to a level that Erdogan could not say no.

Big deal now?  Marginally so.  

It puts a weird scenario out there....if anything were to happen with Russian threats.  You could see a reaction on a Lithuania front....with not only Poland, the US and the Germans reacting....but Finland and Sweden contributing forces.

Putin now?  I think his inner circle are sitting there and grumbling.  Something needs to be done to show 'big-boy' status against Lithuania.  But they've misjudged the whole landscape, and made things even more screwed-up.

Yeah, About That Rent

 Starting on 1 July....in Germany....a list will go out each month to individual renters, and individual landlords (random situation), and the person getting it....is 'forced' to provide their rental situation. 

Refusing?  Up to 5,000 Euro in a fine.

Odds of this creating a massive wave of frustration?

Lets say that you own a building with 10 apartments, and you rent them out....but over the past twenty years....you renovated a couple of them (new bathrooms), and for those folks....you pushed the rent up 60 Euro more each month.  

On paper....some are paying 700 Euro, and some are paying 760 Euro.  A gov't guy getting this data might go and make a case out of perceived unfairness...wasting three hours of your time, and involving some lawyer.

Why this necessity of data?  Well....lets just be honest....people are putting an enormous amount of pressure on city, state and federal folks to act....but they really don't know what the average guy, or the average neighborhood is running.

The odds of 10-million bits of information just not telling the story?  Oh, I'd bet on that.

Maybe if you lived in a smaller town of 12,000....you could assemble a good story and detail how much a 20-year old apartment really costs.

The odds that people will make up fake numbers?  That's possible as well.

I'm pretty sure that some folks who live under bridges will get this notice and just have a laugh over how they tell their story. 

As for resolving things?  I think it'll just make it more confusing.  

My 'Unfinished' Hotel Story

 Back in the late 1990s....Kaiserslautern gave approval for a new hotel to be built.  The investment crowd swooped in and got premier real estate in the mid-town area. The idea was a underground parking deck (probably enough for 200 cars) and a 80-room hotel.  

About a year into this....a report came out that the original 'white-paper' was falsified and that there was not enough business in town to sponsor a new hotel.  The investment crowd failed to show up for further cash flow, and the project stopped.

Roughly three years ago by....with a hotel mostly 60-percent done.  The World Cup of 2006 arrives....still no action.  The city actually goes and puts up 'cover' to ensure no one sees the half-made hotel.

The court finally renders a decision....to grab the ownership and sell what's left there.  Basically....the original group lost all their money on this deal.

Somewhere around 2009....the building finally wraps up.  

Use?  Today, I doubt that they get more than thirty rooms a night rented out, and whoever runs the operation....is stuck with a marginal profit hotel.  

The other day....some business analyst commented that around Germany today....there's around thirty hotel projects like this....'unfinished' and lingering in court action to sell off.  

German News

 1.  Yeah, the Russians officially defaulted on their loan business.  They don't care about future financial situations with anyone outside of Russia.  Banks involved in this mess?  Screwed....royally.  

2.  Just massive delays and cancellations going on in Europe presently.  One German journalist wrote a piece for Focus....being stuck in Finland.  It's worth a read.

The only positive part of this story?  After a full day of chaos and getting nowhere....around the end of the second day of waiting....the guy got on a flight to return to Munich.

All this chatter is scaring the crap of regular Germans, and you will see a trend occur where vacation talk goes back to just local surroundings.

3.  Another large-scale brawl broke out at a outdoor pool (this time in Berlin).  Again....kids using the large scale water guns.

According to Focus....250 folks in the fight.  The start of this?  Some kid blasted a 21-year-old gal in the face with a water gun.  She spit on the kid.  The kid reacted by using the water gun 'plastic' and hitting her in the nose....causing a broken nose.  Chaos then occurred.

Cops then arrived, and the whole pool complex shut-down....everyone sent home.

4.  This 'gift' deal that Chancellor Scholz was talking about....one month of zero income tax?  Gone....Green Party said it wouldn't work, and did not support it.

5.  Putin says 'yes'.....he will come to the G20 meeting in November.  Being there in person?  I have my doubts....probably a video speech....that they owe him a great appreciation for killing a bunch of Nazis in the Ukraine.  

6.  If you want to whine over your electrical costs....in Sri Lanka....electrical prices set to rise 800-percenet.

7.  Chatter about the 9-Euro bus/train card?  As we close out on 1 month of use....the general public likes the ticket.  So the government is discussing matters about what happens after August (last point that you can buy the 9-Euro ticket).

The deal so far?  You can travel anywhere in Germany with a ticket you buy on the first of each month, via 2nd class....bus or train.  No fast rail-travel (ICE or inter-city).  

What I anticipate?  The government will come up (probably not in September) with a ticket that runs 30 Euro, but limits you to only your district region, which is good for a month.  Selling this to people will be difficult, and it will not be as successful. 

My view?  I've used my June 9-Euro ticket around six times.  I would agree....it's a great deal, but on trains being overly full?  It's convinced me to only use it for local situations.  

Guttenberg

 The name Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg came up in the German news today.

Guttenberg, for those unfamiliar with his history....he was set to probably unseat Chancellor Merkel....from within the party when the federal election for 2013 came up.  

Well...around the years prior to 2011....he was the German Defense Minister.  On debate skills....It's hard to find anyone more skilled than him.

So, a funny thing happens in 2011....someone pulls up his dissertation (University of Bayreuth).  He was accused of plagiarism.....university agrees, and yanks his degree.  He resigned from the government, and walked away (US job for past decade).

Well....he's gotten hired to present/moderate two documentaries for RTL-plus (streaming commercial service)....later this fall.  Topic?  Unknown.

Coming back?  He's simply presenting himself in a different light.   Rumor has it that he finished up a degree via a Brit university in the past five years.    

Russia About To Default?

 Well....yeah.

For the first time since the Czar went away....there's foreign debt, and they haven't paid the interest payment.  Final moment?  Tonight.

Amount we are talking about?  29 million Euro for a 2036 gov't bond, and 71 million dollars for a second bond (for 2026).

My humble belief?  It's Putin's decision and he sees no reason to waste what remaining funds exist.

Odds of Russia getting another loan in the next twenty years?  At the pace of things....zero.

Most Russians (I think) will say it doesn't matter.

Western businesses operating there?  None, and that will be the future situation for several decades.

The best way to describe the future.....they will be like Cuba in some ways, and tourism will be mostly non-existent.  If you were a Russian and disgruntled?  You'd leave, and I'd take a guess that 250,000 Russians a year will quietly exit over the next decade. 

Three German Stories

 1.  I sat and watched the news this afternoon, and a piece came on about the Dusseldorf Airport from yesterday, with all the chaos.

So, a number of flights...for various reasons....were cancelled.  The problem here....this was after the folks had gotten the boarding passes and turned in their bags....with the ticketed folks standing there in the concourse.

Eventually, the airlines would tell them.....here's the cancellation, and you are going nowhere today....so go home.  'Oh, by the way',  would come next.....we can't locate your bags, and it may be take a day or two to find out where they are....while we work up your next potential flight to your vacation location.  

2.  'Joe' from Oldenburg is a juvenile with emotion issues.  About a week ago....'Joe' disappeared, and a bunch of folks were looking for him.

Yesterday morning, 'Joe' was found....oddly enough, down in some sewage drain area, which required the lifting of a iron-plate.  He's ok, but he has not explained how he got down into the drainage system.

The manhole cover?  It would have required two men to lift it....so it's doubtful that Joe picked it up.  So far, his explanations are not helping.

3.  I noticed off N-TV....some massive brawl (maybe 300 people involved)....in Essen yesterday.

What the German cops say?  Some disagreement started up between Syrian and Turkish families and just escalated.

Belts, table legs and chairs were used in the brawl.  

UPDATE: 27 June: Cops now say that a gentleman was stabbed in the neck....from which, the brawl occurred.  There's also some chatter that this neighborhood is a fairly rough part of town.

What Is This One-Off Tax Deal Considered in Germany?

 Well....Chancellor Scholz (SPD Party) has this idea.....which would require a vote in the Bundestag.

The idea is....you (the worker) would get one month of pay without any income taken taken.  The 'free' money would be a gift to yourself for your electrical/natural gas bill.

What do German pay on income tax?  The lowest rate is 14-percent but it slides up as you make more.  

So if you were making 2,000 Euro a month....in the normal rate, it'd amount to 280 Euro.

My humble belief is that it'd be capped and no one would make more than 500 Euro. 

Crazy?  Well....it doesn't help welfare folks, or retirees.  But the politicians are desperate at this point....to invent little bits of help.  Frankly, at the pace of things....by the end of December....you'd need around 1,200 extra Euro for just power and natural gas.....not figuring inflation and gasoline cost.  

Beer Gardens Story

 I noticed off my regional state public TV (HR), that they had a 6-minute piece on beer-garden closures.  

So, the hype here....is that manpower-wise, a lot of the pubs, cafes, restaurants and beer-gardens here in Germany....are simply not back up to 100-percent manpower (2019-wise).

The funny thing is that weather over the past ten days....has been mostly up over 25 C (77 F), and rain has been a marginal thing.   So typically....you'd see beer-garden activity soar, and profits accumulate (meaning tax revenue goes up). 

Where are the employees?  If you go and dig down into this....it goes to various topics.  Some were non-Germans, who left for home in 2020 with Covid arriving, and they haven't really made the move back to Germany.  Some found better paying jobs.  Some got smart and opened their own cafes or pubs.  Lets also be honest....on inflation, a number of these jobs simply don't pay well enough to make it a full-time position.

My Script For This Upcoming German Winter

 1.  Whatever your heat bill was in 2021....it'll double by the end of 2022, and likely edge up again over the first quarter of 2023.  Go figure you pay in late spring....3 times the bill of 2021.  Where the money will come from?  Anyone's guess, but I would suggest some gov't gift to arrive by March 2023....some 200 Euro to ease your burden (not near enough).

2.  Eating out prices will escalate by 50 to 100 percent.  Any guy using a gas-powered stove for cooking....probably will find fewer people willing to pay 50-percent more on their normal bill.  

3.  If you do go to a movie (kino) this winter....expect the indoor temp to be in the 16-to-18 C range (60 to 66 F).  

4.  People with fireplaces will be buying an excessive amount of firewood/coal.  I expect black market activities for firewood to take off big this winter.

5.  By January, I expect more than 100,000 retired Germans to sign up for a four-to-six week trip to Turkish beach resorts.....lowering the home temperature to 5 C, and using the natural gas money instead for a 4-star hotel resort.  

Yeah, About That Shooting In Norway

 I noticed this story yesterday, but waited for the rest of the information.

So, an attack took place in Oslo, Norway....around 1 AM Saturday morning.  

This weekend was supposed to be a number of gay-pride events.

From the police description....the shooting started at a gay bar.  'Allah Akbar' was uttered a couple of times as the shooting started.  The guy moved onto a second bar, and ending after the third bar attack.  Cops say two are dead.....ten are in pretty serious condition, and eleven are slightly hurt.

Cops did get there fairly quick (the summary suggests within 5 minutes).

The guy?  Well....Iranian immigrant into Norway....Zaniar Matapour.  Forty-two years old.  

Charges?  Murder, attempted murder, and acts of terrorism.

So here's the rest of this story.  Matapour has a fairly long list of criminal accomplishments (mostly drug and some assaults).  Based on the way things are said on social media in Norway.....the system continually let him out.

I noticed one comment made by his mother....in that Matapour has suffered his entire life from paranoid schizophrenia.  If true.....he'll never be convicted on anything, and just go to a permanent spot in some mental facility.

One amusing thing was talked about late yesterday....as the police were trying to talk/interrogate Matapour.....he didn't want the conversations taped.  He said the tapes could be switched....so he wanted everything 'written' down.  Yeah, it makes no sense, but to a schizophrenic....it makes perfect sense.

On the terror list?  Well, Norway says since 2015....the guy has been listed but has never done anything that warranted serious action.

What'll happen now?  Matapour probably will be declared mentally deranged and pushed off into a highly controlled facility.  Some gay folks will be extremely bitter for months to come over how this unfolded. And I would suggest some review would occur with the police over people who have criminal records, and how many of them might be schizophrenic (probably 300 of them to be declared).  

The Iskander Missle Talk

 Various news sites are reporting this.....Russian President Putin made a comment yesterday (Saturday) after his meeting with the Belarusian boss (Lukashenko)....over the next couple of months (probably before 2023)....Russia will hand over some Iskander-M (SS-26) missile systems.  So, this particular system can be launched with nuke warheads, or cluster-bombs, or a fuel-air explosive, or a Earth penetrator bomb, or a EMP-type bomb.

How many of these?  He kinda left this out.  He also left out what type of munitions would be given (could be nukes....could be strictly fuel-air explosives.  So you don't know that part of the story.

A big deal?  It's consuming a fair amount of chatter.  

Logically, this would draw a lot of talk from Germany, France, etc....to have a missile defense system.  It'd also bring up nuclear warfare chatter a good bit.

Did Lukashenko ask for the weapons?  You see....no one says that part of the story.  I think he was a bit shocked at the meeting when a free 'gift' thing came up and it was the missiles.  

Giving Lukashenko the nuke warheads?  I just don't see that logic in the deal being fixed up.

My humble view....sometime in December....some ceremony will occur, and eight of these missile launchers with missiles arrive.  It'll be a four-star pony-show, with people waving flags.  

Airport Woes

 The German summer vacation period has started up, and in the past two weeks....chaos has followed.  Focus has an excellent article talking about this.

You've got a lack of security personnel.....so as you drag your bag into the big halls....you stand there for twice as long to get your boarding pass, dump the bag, and to get past security.   Generally, the airlines are now suggesting that you get there at least three hours before take-off (in Dusseldorf, based on chatter, I'd suggest four hours).

Just a Germany problem?  No....based on various news stories, I'd say most of the major airports in Europe are having the same issues.

You leaving on the plane, and your bags still in some airport bay?  That is showing up a fair bit.

Cancellations?  Another element that is starting to develop.  

I read some airline spokesperson spoke to the idea that normal operations won't come around until summer of 2023.  

So, if you were planning some trip.....try to drive there.

Yeah, About That Heating Cost

 Lot of natural gas pricing chatter going on.

Via HR (regional public TV).....they had a piece on new prices coming up.

They talked to a local guy who had a contract with a regional provider....cost was set at 5.50 Euro-cents per KwH.  New pricing listed on the letter sent this week?  21.17 Euro-cents per KwH.  Yes, more than tripling the cost.  

What the journalists suggest....most all of the natural gas providers in the Hessen region will be updating the price list over the next month or two.....with people probably being extremely shocked over the new prices.

So if you were used to a 1,900 Euro average bill for the year....somehow, you will have to find an additional 1,900 Euro in your budget, and it even be closer to 2,500 extra Euro.  

Jobs

 This week, I was out and about in the Wiesbaden area.....in and out of fifteen-odd stores, pub/cafes or grocery operations.  

One unique thing....ALL of them had signs on the counter or at the door.....looking for employees....part-time, full-time or mini-job type.

Over at the airport?  High amount of advertising for jobs as well.  

In the local city limit?  I bet there's at least 1,000 jobs open and waiting for applications.  

How Free Covid Tests Look in Germany For The Future

 Well....Lauterbach (the Health Minister) says....starting in July....free and absolute testing ends.

The wording is....if you show 'symptoms' or are in a high-risk group (little kids/pregnant women)....or going to type of event.....then you'd get the tests...free.

Entering a hospital/clinic or retirement home?  Mandated, and free.

Creating a bigger mess?  Well....what kind of symptoms are we talking about?

In my village....you could have fifty people a day who get up and have a slight cough, and that's enough to trigger them into reacting.  Then you'd trigger fifty free tests (costing 18 Euro each over at the trailer in the mid-town area).

I counted up for 2020, 2021, and 2022....I probably took around sixty of these free tests....meaning I spent 1,080 Euro of the government's revenue money.  Results of the sixty? All negative, of course.  I bet within the village.....there are people who did near 250 tests.....meaning they spent 4,500 Euro of the gov't money.  

Update: 3 Euro cost per test added to the 'free' test deal.  Not a big deal, and the gov't still pays for part of the test.

219A Chatter

 For decades in the German Constitution (the Book of Books).....there was paragraph 219A, which stated you could not advertise a clinic/hospital for abortions.  

This morning, the Bundestag voted to delete 219A.

So, starting next week....if you wanted to advertise your local clinic for these services....it's legal.

A big deal?  No.

For decades....folks kinda knew what clinics existed, and how to contact them.  So NO, it's not much of a deal....other than dumping something that people already knew.

The odds that these ads will appear on TV?  Pretty much zero.  Same thing for billboards.  I'm guessing via magazines or newspapers.....you might see ads there.

Travel Story

 There are a hundred-odd things that I'd brag about with the Frankfurt Airport.  Over the decades, I've probably used it more than 150 times. 

Up until Covid, this was probably one of the most advanced airports in the world.  If you were looking for services, food, or some alternate method of exiting the airport (buses, trains, etc).....they were ready to provide whatever you needed.

The top thing that I liked?  As you exited a plane (on arrival)....by the time you walked to border-control (passports), and then walked the 300 ft to the baggage area....usually you stood there for no more than 10 minutes.  You'd be in the train coming home around 15 minutes after that.  

This week, I noticed off social media....the wait-time is now a minimum of an hour and usually up to 75 minutes now.  People are also admitting that if they get there late to turn in their bags for boarding....the odds of the bag making it to the plane.....is now a problem.

Reason?  The airport quietly admits that among their ten services (security included)....a fair number of the old employees left in the Covid period, and found other jobs.  Yes, they are short-handed.  

Fixing this?  Well....want-ads are out and they are recruiting new people.  Happening in the middle of vacation season?  Yeah.....so I'm handing out advice.  If you were taking a vacation this year....within Europe......try to drive there, and avoid airline travel.

German News: 24 Jun 2022

 1.  Last night, I watched about half of the ZDF public forum show Maybrit Illner.  It was probably something that people should have avoided.  Topic?  The approaching natural gas crisis (shortage).

So you basically learned that the nation has about 10 weeks of gas supply.....if the Russians turn it off completely.

2.  The wife (German in nature) and I reviewed options.  We have a great ultra-modern natural gas furnace in the basement....has tons of digital tools to regulate the heat and we probably save 500 Euro a year over the old furnace.  

Beyond it?  We have three conventional heaters in the basement that could be brought out for electrical heat in various parts of the apartment.  The old chimney?  Restructured 20 years ago with cable TV and internet wiring....so of no use (if we wanted to install a wood burner).

3.  The best train deal in years......the Bahn Card 100 (meaning zero cost for each trip) is now being offered for those over 65 years old....at 222 Euro a month.  You can travel anywhere in Germany with this card....zero cost....in 2nd class, for the 222 Euro deal.  

4.  Because of strikes, personnel shortages and Covid....Lufthansa said yesterday that around 2,000 flights will be cancelled over the next month (most are short-range trips).  Regional airport at Frankfurt has a ton of open positions that they are recruiting for.  

5.  Someone reported a crocodile around the Main River, near Hanau.  Normally, the cops would automatically discount the report....but a picture from a smart-phone came with the report.  So they are actively looking around.  

Energy Story

 This morning, I watched the AM public TV news of Germany (ARD).  Big topic?  On the emergency checklist for energy....the government moved to step 2 (we've been at step 1 for about 90 days).

In case you were interested....there are only three steps in this process.....so we are getting to a pretty serious level right now.

This step requires the government to go back to the closed coal-powered power plants....and reopen them (at whatever the cost).  Requiring the Bundestag's permission?  Yes, and that vote is around two weeks away. 

The 3rd step, just for FYI, is where natural gas flow is prioritized and industry is hurt by this step in a massive way.

Where all of this is heading?  I would suggest that step 3 will be ordered around early September (if not before) and things get a bit 'iffy' on regulations.

Yeah, I do expect to be told of a home-temperature and some fine on excess use of natural gas (although the whole way of knowing this and punishing people is not obvious or transparent).  My humble view is that the home day-time/night-time temperature will be 18 C (64.5 F).  

This being a one-winter thing?  NO......I'm one of those people who think this is a three to five year thing, with heating cost (even at the 18 C setting) getting silly in nature.  I also think people will get to a point where solar panels will be put up....to power some conventional heaters in the house.  

Driving Story

 I was looking at a driver-story over at Focus today....where the topic of drinking and driving came up.

The TÜV folks went and conducted a poll on how Germans feel in favor of or against a total and absolute ban on alcohol. 

So, the shocker?

Roughly 80-percent said total ban on alcohol was OK with them.  Yeah, there was a difference here between men and women....fewer guys felt this was the way to go (76-percent).....while women felt it was a great idea (85-percent).

Is this a big deal?  I would say that forty years ago....it was fairly common for German guys to stop on the way home to have two beers.  Today....out of a hundred guys....there might be five guys who stop (maybe once a month) and have a beer on the way home.  

People tend to drink at home, or walk from their house to the local pub.  

As for a full ban on alcohol and driving?  I don't see how it'd come to work.  Most folks who do eat out.....have a glass of wine or a single beer....with their dinner.  

The Next Thing To Worry Upon?

 Lot of chatter this AM via German public TV (ARD/www.tagesschau.de)....over the Kaliningrad/Lithuania business.

So there is a blocked railway situation which Russia would normally bring 'goods' into Kaliningrad.  One and only one railway.

Some goods (steel/construction materials) in the mix....would normally flow through.  EU sanctions say 'no'.  Food is not a problem.

So Russia says it's being 'threatened'.  

What happens next?  Unknown.  Russia could supply the steel by freighter....would be a added degree of frustration.  They also could mount some offensive group up in the Lithuania region.  Belarus in the mix?  Well....if you pull up the map....Russia is NOT next to Lithuania.  

My humble belief is that the Russians would want the Belarus government to make a threat, and possibly put troops up against the border.  Belarus interested in some military stuff?  I seriously doubt it.  

So, here's the odd factor....there's various NATO (German included) military groups in the Baltic/Poland area.  It's not a vast force....but it's more than enough to take on what weak military effort that the Belarus folks might try to create.  

If you were asking me....is all this an intentional 'gimmick' to get to another step....causing Putin to bring another force to the west and face Lithuania?  I'd say that's what it looks like.  

The Belarus leadership is probably looking at this, and asking themselves....do we really want any part of this Putin adventure?  

So....over the next two weeks....it might be worth watching as to how Putin now reacts, and if Belarus gets dumped into some NATO campaign.  

German News

 1.  I noted in regional Hessen news (my state)....court case opening up from an 'attack' on a kiosk in Frankfurt....from back in January of 2021.  Charged-up?  Six folks, with high security assigned to the case.  

Basic story?  Two rival gang groups (clans) arrived...37 people total.  Gunshots fired, fair amount of assault, damage.  

Attempted manslaughter among the charges....so it could be a fair amount of jail-time if convicted.

I'll just say.....another indicator of how crime has developed in the past twenty years, with crime gangs now in competition against each other.

2.  I glanced at local Covid reporting.....7-day rate inching up.  Another death in the city (Wiesbaden)....82-year old guy.  Makes it 427 dead since day one.

3.  Last night via the Maischberger public forum live show.....former Russian PM gave an view of the Russian situation, and noted that Putin probably sees the Baltic republics (all three) as future Russian territory.  In simple terms, if Putin were to conclude the conflict in the Ukraine....his attention would move to the Baltic next.  Probably didn't help to lessen German anxiety over the situation. 

4.  Focus report this AM.....chatting over vacation flight chaos going on.  Lot of frustrated Germans, hyped-up over their trip plans being screwed-up.  I'd offer this advice....if you going anywhere this summer.....go by car.

5.  G-7 conference to be held shortly in Elmau (Bavaria).  Some groups opposing the meeting are active.  Fire was set to seven German police vehicles last night.  

6.  FDP Party boss noted that the years of safe abundant electricity....are probably ending. He calls for review of bringing back nuclear power (all are supposed to be turned off by the end of 2022).

7.  In the past month, if you review German articles on real estate pricing....most all are suggesting a harsh downturn. You could be seeing a minimum of 10-percent cuts on prices.  

8.  Minister of Social Affairs (Heil, SPD Party) spoke up and basically said: "The state cannot equalize everything for everyone."  

9.  Probably begs questions, but I noticed off RBB.....two out of three of the cases of Monkeypox reported in Germany.....come out of Berlin.  

10.  Case opening up in Kaiserslautern against the hunter who killed two police near Kusel back in January.  Recommend a read of the Focus article to cover the first day of court.

What I'll generally say....it is an odd vicious crime.  Two hunters on a serious amount poaching (enough to get serious jail-time).....get caught in the middle of their 'adventure', and one of them ends up killing two police.  

So, they introduce the fact today....meth is a drug that one hunter is utilizing.  The hunter who is the accused of firing the rounds?  He's now suggesting his 'partner' is the one who fired the rounds.  Going to be a confusing case.

11.  Seven-point Covid plan being pursued by the German Health Minister.  Mask mandates for indoors is on the list.  Entering a old-folks home? You'd have to test each single time.  Free Covid testing will probably be coming back yet again.  Suggested emphasis on recruitment for nursing is on the list (serious manpower problem brewing).  More to be announced by end of summer.

12.  Some massive brawl started up at a Berlin outdoor pool.....hundred fighting, with around a hundred police brought in to halt the brawl.

What started this?  Well....someone brought in a water-pistol and got active....pissing off folks.  Occurred at the Stegletz area.  I watched the video...seemed like a lot of pushing and shoving by young men.  

13.  Lot of chatter about bringing recently turned-off coal-powered power stations back on line....because of the energy crisis.

Companies said the stations are capable of being brought back on....but one serious issue....most all of the employees have moved on.  Companies say it'd take a massive effort to recruit, or talk the old employees back into the old power plants.  

Cost factor?  What idiot would return to a plant with a 50-50 shot of being turned off again within three years?  I'd be demanding a 5-year contract, with 10-percent bump-up in salary, and a 10,000 Euro bonus to return to the old job.

Kinda funny to consider.....desperation to resolve a mess created by the government.  All will lead to massive increases in power cost over the next decade.  

This Airbus A380 Trend

 For this discussion....you need to know that the A380 was a plane developed to haul a massive number of passengers on each trip (525 minimum, and up to around 800 for the max).

Back before Covid hit....it was a popular plane for a number airlines.  When you figured the cost ratio....if the plane was full...it simply made sense.

Covid came, and suddenly....the A380 concept dropped like a rock.  Airlines dumped them left and right.  For a while, I thought that the A380 would be finished.

This past week, I noted in business news....Lufthansa is now talking about restarting the A380 routes.

Originally, they had 14 of the aircraft.  Their general plan in 2021.....all would go away.

There's a belief right now....within 12 months, most airlines will return to a state of profitability, and the A380....probably will make some type of return.

My own hype for the plane?  I've ridden three times. On look/feel....I give it five stars.  The only negative?  It's built for ultra-long flights (like Frankfurt to Hong Kong, or Sydney to Dubai).  

Ukrainians in Germany

 While watching German AM news via public news (ARD)....I noted that 800,000 Ukrainians are now registered within Germany (kids and adults).

Then they went to an interesting number....there are presently around 200,000 in this group....of people over the age of 15...registered at job-centers in Germany....looking for work.

State with the most listed for work? Bavaria, with 42,000.

Second on the list....NRW....32,000.

Positive thing?  Well....unemployment is around 2.9-percent nationally.  In Bavaria?  It's generally been a percent point below the national average number.....so I'm guessing....with any real job background/degree...most all of the 42,000 will be employed by the end of 2022.  NRW is not that way....typically being two to three points above the national average.  

Will Turkey Leave NATO?

 For about six weeks, there's been this chatter from inside of Turkey....the idea of them leaving NATO.  It's mostly a political 'jab' and by a couple of the national folks. Erdogan himself....has not uttered this idea.

So I'll offer three observations:

1.  Other than attending NATO meetings and getting some military infrastructure money....there's no plus-up for Turkey being today in NATO.

2.  If you looked over dynamics presently, it's more likely that Turkey will get more 'friendship' (deals) via Russia over the next decade....than from Europe itself.

3.  Leaving NATO brings up the US military structure in Turkey and how it'd remain or go.  Some people would say the US would be better off.....some suggest it's a necessity to remain in Turkey.

My gut-feeling....lot of talk but nothing happening, while Erdogan runs things.

Inviting The Next Conflict?

 This popped up yesterday.

There's now railway restrictions on the one single line that serves Kaliningrad, from Russia.  Certain items can be refused as they approach Lithuania (an EU state).  

Yes, Russia is peeved.  

There's supposed to be a EU meeting to clear up what's on the list.  I would imagine that food and medicine would be easily approved for entry.  

Could Russia get around this by shipping in goods by freighter?  Yes.

Another step toward a bigger conflict?  I would suggest that.  

German News: 20 June 2022

1.  Cops were called this AM to autobahn areas around Berlin.....kids (Last Generation is the group) were gluing themselves to the pavement.  Cops showed up with olive oil and the glue dissolved quickly.

2.  Focus wrote up a medical piece on long-Covid, and how in some odd ways....it near in comparison to lung-cancer (yet different in a few ways).  Worth a read.

Three Lingering Questions for 2022 in Germany

 So there are three logical questions to ask at this point:

1.  How secure is the natural gas, oil and electrical power situation in Germany?

A year ago....the answer would be 'great'.  Today?  Crappy.

We've even reached the point where they asked if the nuke plants (mandated to shut down by the end of the year can continue on).  No....they have enough 'rods' to run for about one quarter of 2023.  

The coal plants which were supposed to shut-down within 8 years?  There's talk now that this entire plan may be modified.  I should add that the government signed a deal to pay the three regions affected....somewhere in the range of 30-billion Euro to shut-down and clean the plants.....plus retrain the coal industry employees.

On heating this next winter?  There's talk of some government 'order' where you set your home thermostat to 18C in the day-time and 16C at night.  No one can explain on how this would work, or if people would comply.

The alternate path for natural gas....shipping it in from Qatar?  No one feels sure about this, and I would suggest that the winter of next year would likely be the point where that delivery would start.  

Fracking?  At least one political party has asked if they could open the programs for this.....knowing there is enough natural gas in Germany to provide our own needs.

2.  Will the war escalate, and drag NATO completely in?

The general consensus of Germans is that Putin can't be that 'stupid'.  However, if you asked about the war-question....where 10 years ago, it would have been a 1-percent chance.....today, I'd suggest about 20-percent of Germans think the war will escalate.

3.  For all the debt and cost of the war and Covid.....isn't there a tax crisis coming in the next year or two?

Most economic analysts sit there and grin....knowing it's a 99-percent chance that taxes will be openly discussed by the spring of 2024 (if not sooner).

You can stall things for a while while in this deep recession, but by early 2023....there has to be some honest discussion about the amount of debt existing.

Will the tax crisis simply lead back around to a new recession?  Well....some suggest that, but you can't be that sure.  

All of this....if you haven't figured this out.....leads to a higher cost of living, and that's the chief threat of the next ten years in Germany. 

German News For Monday

 1.  Worries in Berlin for this AM....talk that the 'Last Generation' 'cult-group' (juveniles/teenagers) will try to block several autobahn areas around Berlin. 

2.  Macron's parliament election 'crapped-out' yesterday.....opposition now has votes to lessen his authority.  

3.  UK general laid out comments that the UK military probably will be eventually drawn into the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

4.  Large scale forest fires going in Germany....near Brandenburg area.

5.  Political polling shows the SPD Party trend to be still going 'down', with the Greens capturing numbers and improving....the CDU still remains in the lead.  October is the next state election to occur (Niedersachsen).  Last election in the state...the SPD won (2017 result) around 37-percent of the votes.  There's virtually no way that the party can get that level of support in 2022....likely to be near 30-percent....enough to probably 'win' but shows a lesser situation.  

Sizing Up The Ukraine/Russia 'War' and the German Energy Crisis Developing

 My own observations over the 'war':

1.  I don't anything halting/ending until Putin is dead.  Figure some 10-day 'Jesus-is-dead' event over Russia as the legendary Putin is announced dead and some massive funeral is arranged.  

2.  This period will be a quiet-period, with no military action taking place.

3.  None of this will occur in 2022 (I'm suggesting his health is in decline but it's nothing to occur in the next six months).

4.  Whoever emerges as Putin II....will try to arrange a talks-event and just say the 'war' should end....Russia take the far east section of Ukraine, and no war-crimes possible. Ukraine?  It will decline, and six additional months will occur.

5.  The bigger of all problems.....there's a massive amount of negative interest by the Russian conscripts to continue the war, and some chatter in the Ukraine of certain units which refuse to take actions.

The German energy problem?

1.  Rumor has it that some coal plants will continue, and the suggestion of them shutting down over the next five years?  It'll just halt.....they will remain on production of power.  Key problem?  How do you plan maintenance around this situation?

2.  The nuke plants?  They were planned to shut down at the end of 2022, and there's only enough 'rods' around to handle the first quarter of 2023.  The plants already have shut-down plans, and the government allocated the shut-down.

3.  As for heating in homes being an issue?  The government will write a regulation and home temperatures will range around 18 C for daytime temperature....by late in 2022.  Expect this to repeat in the winter of 2023, and probably 2024.  

'Throttling' Being Thrown Around

 Lot of chatter going on this morning in Germany, over the term 'throttling'.  It involves the use of governmental control over heating (homes and apartments).

I would suggest that come September.....some government guidance will occur, and Germans will be ordered in some way to lower the home temperature because of the gas business.

The expectation?  Likely 18 C in the day-time and 16 C after 10 PM (until 5 AM).  

A one-winter thing?  Well....you see....no one is sure about the Russian mess and where it's going.  This could be several years in the making, and trigger a lot of internal frustrations.  

I could even see some German retirees....in the worst part of winter....opting for a six-week vacation in some warm climate location.  

German News

 1.  I went to the bakery in my village today (a normal Saturday thing).  I buy always the same assortment of 'goods'.  This morning.....the cost was 7.32 Euro.  Back around early January, the price for the same goods was set at 6.97 Euro.  Previously, for about four years....the same assortment had run around 6.37.  

Yeah, roughly a five-percent bump up.  If I use the 2021 price....it's a 15-percent increase on inflation.  

Looking across the display area.....everything had at least a ten-cent bump-up.

2. The BKA (Federal Crime office for Germany) noted today that they have literally hundreds of war-crimes cases that they've developed....involving Russians.  Whether they will ever be taken into court?  Unknown.

3.  Interesting chatter from a interview on N-TV with Germany's Minister of Justice Buschmann (FDP).

Talk escalating about Covid again, and masks.  He says....for the mask requirement to come back up....it needs to be 'scientifically proven' and 'evidence-based'.

Where this is leading onto?  Well....it is odd....for 2020 when the whole mask requirement was mandated.....you had a limited science-driven directive.  In 2021, it flipped when surgical masks were no longer accepted as valid.....while there was limited to no real data to make this decision.

My humble view is that some university will pick this up....do three months of analysis and come to the view that any mask....works, but it needs to be changed out daily....something that I doubt happens with a quarter of the adult population. 

Will There Be a Prescribed Heat Level in Homes?

 This topic has started up in Germany, and there is some belief that the government has the authority to mandate a 'limit'....because of the shortage of natural gas.

If you asked most Germans?  They'd say up to this point....they ran their home heat at 20 to 22 C (68 F to 71 F).  

The chatter going on?  The suggestion is that the natural gas/heating oil heating systems could be mandated to be 18 C (64.5 F) in the day-time, and down to 16 C (61 F) for the evening hours.

My humble belief is that it'll be discussed to 'doom/gloom' up until September....then some compromise will occur....probably 18 C for day and night.  If you weren't happy....you could have an electric space heater....running it for an hour (as you come home) and reaching the level you desired.

My home is a bit different.....the heat in the bedroom is turned almost off, with the bathroom probably running near 23 C in the winter (round-the-clock).  Rest of the house stays near 20 C.  

Germans to grumble?  Well....yeah.  

Mask Discussion

 Bundestag is having a discussion today....to possibly mandate the wearing of the Covid mask, from some point in October (no date given) to Easter (meaning it'd be a yearly thing).

The sixteen states of Germany?  Well....they would have some say in the matter, but I suspect if this were just regular things (grocery stores, public buildings, theaters), and no shut-down authorized....it would occur.

The odds of another discussion over mandatory vaccinations?  Maybe but a fair number of people (in the 30-percent range) aren't interested in that discussion.

Mask possibly being a permanent thing?  In private settings.....people suggest it'll go on for years.  

Dollar - Euro Rate

 For those who haven't noticed, in recent weeks....the dollar has gained some value.  Right now....the dollar buys .95 Euro.  

When you go back to the initial period (about 20 years ago)....the dollar actually bought around 1.10 Euro.  Then, we went through a pretty long period where the dollar would buy somewhere between .70 to .80 Euro.  

Whats causing the drift now?  Different answers coming up....inflation, energy prices, weaker EU policy, etc.

Likely scenario that we'd get back to a dollar buying 1.10 Euro?  I'd say it's possible as you look at the inflation business going into 2023 as well.  

For those who were here in 1985, and remember the dollar buying 3.5 West German D-Marks?  We are a long way from that reality.  

Beer

I spent most of yesterday over in France, and amongst the viewing of various wines....I took some time to view the craft beer situation.

The thing I like about French beers....isn't so much the beer, but the labels. 

When you gaze at the option of drinking 'Good Angel' beer or 'Bad Angel' beer.....you have a bit of temptation on your mind and the taste is a secondary thing.

The French have a flair for artistic work, and giving you the image of some misbehavior at work.

They also can take a simple story...like Red Riding hood, and build a boxed brew set into a story....with a fairly evil wolf, and a wholesome juvenile 'hood-gal'.

In the US....at least until the past decade....beer labels were a pretty low priority.  

The idea of putting 'Santa' on a beer?  I don't see a problem.  Santa probably consumes a wheaty-tasting beer, and doesn't care if there's a calorie or two extra in the mix. 

I wrapped up the day at a German-Italian restaurant.sitting in the garden, and sipping through two beers (my wife was driving).

 

Prices

I took this shot last week at a fest, on prices.

I think every German is all hyped up to get out and socialize in 2022....after two years of Covid...the pricing of things is shocking the majority.

Doesn't matter if you talking about having a wine, a beer, or a soda.

For a couple to venture out for three hours, and sip a refreshing beverage or two, or three.....you'd be talking about thirty Euro, without any 'eats'.

Cocktails?  There are a few places around which will make up a single-shot with some mix....for about 6.50 Euro (for the no-name alcohol shot).  Most cocktails are now running eight Euro minimum, and real cocktail bars are trying to squeeze you with ten Euro drinks.  

 

Three Odd Things

 1.  Yesterday, I ventured into France....on a grocery trip (Cora is my favorite).  So I got into the coffee area and here are these new 'pad coffees'. 

Yes, Twix, Mars, and Milky Way flavored.

I paused there for a minute.  Personally, I like just plain black coffee, with zero milk, and zero sugar.  It's just not something that would attract me.

2. About 2.5 months ago, my wife contacted (submitted is a better word) a request to the BMW-Mini dealer for a test-drive of the hypbrid.

She's more or less admitting that the new Audi A5 we have.....is too big, although she readily admits it's best driving car you could imagine.

So we waited, and waited, and waited.

This AM, the local dealer finally called (10 weeks after we sent them an email).  Arranged for a test-drive?  No....just on some list now.

You know.....all the way to 2019....if you just hinted to a dealer of any type (US, Germany)....that you might be interested....they were full-throttle to entice you come on down....sit for a while, and do a test-drive.

Problems?  Virtually all of the German car-makers are saying it's now a minimum of six months, and on up to fourteen months....before you can get  a purchased car.

Two weeks ago, I was reading a piece via the business news.....describing Germany as the 'new-Cuba'....in that only used cars really exist now.  

My humble guess is that we will get a call in three weeks, for a test-drive by the end of July.  If we did buy something in August?  Oh....it'd probably be September/October of 2023 before it'd arrive.

3.  I ventured down to Ramstein (my old base) yesterday.  I only go there twice a year now.  

So for three years, they've been working on a new east-gate (to enter and exit the base).  

I decided upon the end of the day.....to exit the newly opened east-gate.  

I'd describe the 'course' as the 'Monaco Grand Prix'.  From where the old east-gate was....you take a curve and the 'Grand Prix' course starts up.  All total on curves before you are actually on the German state-road?  Probably sixteen curves, and a minimum of 2.5 miles added to what was a quarter-mile exit before.

Navigating the 'course' after a beer or two at the club?  No....forget about that.  With the narrow road developed and the various curves....you must be clear-headed and probably drive no more than 25 kph for the whole 'course'.

Money spent?  Between asphalt, concrete, bridge work, security enhancements....has to be a minimum of $15-million.  

My advice, for retired folks who might venture down to Ramstein for any reason....avoid the east-gate, and go out the old west-gate.  And I'd double down on that advice if you have to exit after dark or in a serious rain-storm.  

The Thing About Plastic Bags

 At some point in the 1980s....you really started to notice a 'take-off' for plastic bags in Germany.  If you went to a shop of any type....you ended up with a plastic bag.  

At some point around 2005 to 2010....you started to notice a anti-plastic bag trend....by the environmentalists.  

In the past five years....the trend has reached a point where various federal regulations were handed down, and back in January....the 'mother-of-all-bans' occurred, where you weren't supposed to be able to get your goods in a plastic bag.  

Well....that was the intention back in January, and how we'd be all saved.

What happened since January?  The regulation says you can't use single-use plastic bags (15 microns to 45 microns).  Well...the bags which are 50 to 60 microns are considered 'reusable', so the stores all went to a heavy-duty plastic bag.   

My wife (German) has been commenting a lot over the past six months about these new bags that the grocery stores give her....all fit into the 50 microns or more type....extra thick.  

The funny thing....she keeps all of these and they get a second, third and probably even fourth re-use.  Some of them might even be around for a year of continued use.

The environmentalists and government folks peeved?  Yes, without any doubt.  

The problem here....just about everything you buy...comes in a loose fashion.  Paper-bags?  Evil.  The cloth bags?  You need to wash them on a frequent basis....which no one really does.  So there is no way to really get around this problem of the 'bag'.

Croissant Story

 I sat and reviewed a Focus business report this morning....which drilled down upon croissants (one of my favorite bakery items in Germany).

Someone noted that in a Bavarian bakery....in the past week, they'd noted the price for a croissant escalating to 2.19 Euro ($2.28 US).  

If you used pricing from France/Germany in 2019 (before Covid)....a typical croissant ran around 1-Euro to 1.30-Euro.  

Locally, for me presently....it's up to the 1.70 Euro range, and I would imagine it hitting 2-Euro by the end of the summer.  

The key question....does the escalation continue into 2023?  Could you be looking at a 3-Euro item?

In the German News:

 1. Covid up?  Well, yeah....last night's 7-day rate was noted at 472 (Wiesbaden local rate 732, which is way up over past seven days).  Locally, in the past 24 hours....another 633 folks were tested 'positive'.  

2.  German Chancellor Scholz put up a statement to suggest whistle-blowers could call the government to report on Russian Oligarch money movements in Germany.  

3.  Gazprom cuts flow of natural gas into Germany?  What this story is about....Nord Stream I (built years ago) was trimmed back on flow in recent days, and it's mostly about a marginally functioning pump....which leads back to the maker....Siemens. Some blame being dumped around....a cut of 40-percent on gas movement is the suggestion.  

4.  A AfD party member got into some legal trouble by claiming the status of 'professor'.  Somehow, it got reported, and went through the court business.  Fine?  Well....roughly 9k Euro.  That's one of those things about German law....if you claim a 'title' but you don't really have the title.....it gets you into legal trouble.  

Navalny in the News

 This afternoon, across multiple German news sites....the top political prisoner in Russia....Alexei Navalny was reported 'moved' from his present prison.

Deal?  Navalny's office manager says the 'tip' was given, and no one says much over where he went.

Fairly known around Russia?  OH yeah.  You mention his name, and 99-percent of Russians know the guy.  Number one on Putin's 'hate-list'?  Probably somewhere in the top ten.

Two scenarios?

1.  He's been taken to some prison unit that is even more strict, and more isolation.

2.  The Duma crew in charge has asked the question....if Putin dies, how could we recharge the whole mess in the Ukraine, with the EU, and get sanctions dumped?  

So, maybe under scenario two.....there's this crazy talk taking place....dark room, with two pro-Putin folks talking over the idea that Navalny might be given the role of President, to resolve the mess upon Putin's death, end sanctions, and to get Ukraine off the 'stove'.

Russians often utter the phrase....'useful fool', and maybe they need one to unhinge the whole conflict and fix the resolution BS.

Germans and Weapons

 1.  How many Germans hold a permit/license?  

Presently, using data from 2018....around 1.5-million Germans.

2.  How many weapons are private German 'hands'?

The number presently (using 2015 data I could find) is around 5.5-million, with the majority of owners in Bavaria NRW, and Baden-Wurttemberg. 

3.  Key elements of the German permit?

(1) National ID card, (2) background check, (3) physical/mental review of your medical records with a doctor signing you off, (4) a hunter/shooter class, (5) acquiring a gun safe for your house with no other people to have access unless they accomplish all of the mandates. 

4. Obstacles usually in getting a permit?

Most Germans will say that background reveals any past threats, assaults, or convictions that most people ought to be denied upon.  

Adding to this....the doctor looking over your records will note alcohol/drug abuse (would disqualify you), or mental issues. If you were delusional, or bi-polar....pretty much zero chance of a permit.

5.  Illegal gun possession?

If you pay attention to the police blotter business....I'd say that some bust occurs almost daily where a drug-dealer or mafia-character has a police raid and illegal guns are in his possession.....meaning not only loss but certain added prison time.  

6.  Chief reason to own a weapon?

This is a debate.

If you lined up a thousand Germans (it's mostly men, and I doubt if women make up more than 10-percent of the group).....it's a hunter thing.  

Second, would be interest in target shooting, and self-defense is way down to maybe 1-percent of the group.

Lets be honest here....if you felt a threat at your house, a police-call would get the cops there in roughly five or six minutes.  Most all Germans live in urbanized areas (village/towns) so home invasion is an awful rare thing.

This hunter thing that big of a deal?  Just in my local area....a 2-mile circle of the village....there must be at least 25 stands, and at day-break...at least twice a week, I'll hear a gun-shot or two, with wild boar or deer shot.  

I knew of an American (2005 period) that was in on various hunting trips with his hunting associates, with some trips leading down to Austria.  At some point, he joined a club in the Wiesbaden region, and was the police-connection when wild boars were hit by cars....getting a call at 1 AM to come out and haul-off the dead boar.  

7.  Is there a national database?

Well....up until the last couple of years....it was a state-by-state thing, and mostly resembling a paper-contract between you and the local police.  Your name, and the gun registration were on a database for the state folks.  

8.  German gun laws going back a hundred years?

Yes, long complicated story but they were mandating certain things already around the 1910 era.  Anyone who says the Nazis wrote the original laws?  No....laws were already existing in the Kaiser-era.  

9.  This national ID card a big deal in 'control'?

There is no doubt that the card makes some significant security in the whole apparatus.  

10.  German mass shootings non-existent?

Look....you can have a mass-killing event accomplished by use of a tractor-trailer rig, or a simple SUV.  We've had killing attempted with nut-jobs with swords, knives, and axes.  Couple of years ago, some idiot tried to buy a significant amount of weed-poison and had the idea of killing people by the water-supply.....that only failed because the lawn salesman argued about the amount that a legit yard needed and got terribly suspicious over the quantity discussion.  

When you have seen a mass shooting in Germany....it's typically by pistol, and the causality number is typically in the five to ten range.  

What's the EU Chatter Over Ukraine Mean?

 The statement from yesterday says....the commission from the EU has evaluated the application for the Ukraine to join, and they are going to stamp it as a 'recommendation' to accept.

Done deal?  Well...this goes to the full EU assembly and member states.  I won't say it's great odds.

Pissing-off Putin once again?  Oh yeah....no doubt.

Dozens of things to prevent the 'path'?  You could build up a list and there's a minimum of thirty-odd problems (human rights probably could even get on the list).

I should note that Turkey had this 'evaluation done/approved in 1999, and nothing much came out of that.

What Ukraine really needs?  A clear path for trade and commerce.  No one argues that point.  

E-car Chatter

 I noticed this topic of cars coming up via a Focus car section this morning.

The EU seems to always want to be in the lab....meddling with things and showing some massive change about to unfold.

So....the EU made a statement over future prioritized emission standards....this time to protect soil/water/air.

The topic?  Well....oddly enough....brake abrasion.

Yeah....it's not something that 99-percent of people really think much about.

Here's the 'evil' laid out....E-cars generally us different braking system.  Lot of folks think the Jesus-car (E-cars) and the Satan-car (gas/diesel cars)...have the same brake type.  That's not true.  

E-cars generally use self-braking to get some 'flow' back to the battery...meaning abrasive brakes are in the mix.  So the EU woke and realizes now that fine dust/particles end up in the air....which naturally, IS a bad thing.  

So what the EU hints....they will be looking at this, and somewhere (maybe a decade down the line)....they will be writing some regulation.  

Yes, you can imagine engineer folks are shaking their head because they found this way to retain energy as a E-car stops, and it's got to involve bad evil brake dust/particles in some way.  

The gas/diesel engineers?  They are grinning because their product isn't doing the same level of damage.  

That Covid App

 Two years ago, my wife (the German) downloaded the 'mythical' app which would track people, and if someone had Covid....got tested....and you were walking around them (within 1.5 meters) for about a minute....the app would send you a warning message.

So for two years....no warning message came up.

This morning, the warning came up.  It was for Thursday of last week.  It was the day we went to some fest, and to be honest.....she probably walked around 600-odd people over a three-hour period.

Symptoms?  Well.....no.  Not yet.

Two years of 'use' and this was the only time that it 'warned'? 

What I Think Over the Suggested Sunday Driving Ban in Germany?

 The discussion goes on....with a firm decision likely to be made shortly after the political folks return from their summer vacation (say mid-August).  

No one is clear on this.....it might be every other Sunday....it might be each Sunday....it might be the one Sunday a month.

The attempt in 1973 with the idea in West Germany?  Most will say that they obeyed it but it was for a marginal amount of time. In this case?  No one says much but social folks suggest it to be a four-month period. 

Here's the thing....we endeared through two years of marginalized commerce for Covid, and now....the suggestion is that no one will travel, eat-out, go bowling, or see movies....for a four-month period of Sundays?

Obedience-level?  With younger Germans?  Near 50-percent I expect to disobey the idea.

If this were one Sunday per month, for a year?  That might sell to some degree.  

But there is one odd difference between 2022 and 1973....in the old days....most all Germans did not work on Sundays.  Today?  I'd take a guess that 5-percent of society has a Sunday job (going well past the police, fire department and airport operations).  

The 'Taboo' Discussion

 Susan Gaschke wrote a commentary for Welt over the weekend....entitled: 'The Cultural Left Has Erected New Taboos'.  

It's about a four-minute reading piece and if you can find it via either N24 or Welt...it's worth a read.

The pointed end of this essay?  There's a lot of controlled debating going on in public within Germany....leading people to be careful what they utter or suggest.  

So she comments...it's rather odd that the left side of this spectrum is pushing this agenda....when they led the discussions in the past against the government and the authorities....wanting more and open debate.

There are still topics that you can freely discuss in Germany, and it doesn't get you issues (example, the pension program is under massive debate on a daily basis.....as is public safety, and inflation).  

Massive control?  No....it's just that the two major parties in question (the CDU and SPD)....are in free-fall....with a public standing combined of less than 50-percent.  It's possible in the next election that the SPD will even fall below the 20-percent point.  

It would be safe to say that political aggravation is now a daily thing, with Germans fairly divided.  Some would remark that it's starting to resemble the 1920s again.

This Idea of Breaking Up German Gas Companies

 The way this goes.....billions of Euro have been poured into a 90-day campaign to dump the gas-tax (32-cents roughly per liter), and most of the 'savings' (if you can call it that).....have been passed by increased pricing.  This morning....if you check local gas stations....the liter price for E-10 is 1.97 Euro.  

If you go to the end of May (as the full tax was in place), the liter price was around 2.20....with the early-May price being close to 2.12.

Hint:  a fair number of Germans expected as the tax relief came....prices would have dropped to the 1.75-to-1.80 level.  In simple terms....fuel today is about seventeen cents above what people/the government expected.

Over the weekend, the Energy Minster openly discussed the idea of breaking up the gas companies (saying they are a cartel) and denying them profits with a potential new excess profits tax.

The term 'illegal profits' gets used a good bit.

Everyone in the government coalition reading off the same script?  No.  The FDP, whose boss is the Finance Minister....said in a blunt way that the excess profit tax idea is crappy, and proven unworkable in various countries (UK and Italy for example).

Some people have also said....if you implement this....law suits will start that it's very picky going after only one sector for excess profits, and the court would likely throw this out.  Yes, in simple terms....all companies would have to be evaluated for excess profits, and then you open up a huge can of worms.

On the idea of breaking up the gas companies?  The general idea is smaller companies 'compete'.  

So, if you were a gasoline company and looking at the questionable future with E-cars and massive downturns expected between 2030 and 2040 on fuel purchases....how eager would you be to upgrade or perform regular improvements in the system?  It's like the nuclear energy companies....when they saw the daylight and were going to be denied existence....there was only one path to 'walk'.  Today?  As eager as the government might be to keep a couple of the nuke plants around....the remaining system has been built to shutdown by the end of 2022.

I would suggest by various regulation efforts....the Germans have tinkered with the fuel companies enough....to make the basic cost of getting fuel to your tank.....fairly expensive.....then layering various taxes over fuel, and thinking there was a limit to escalation of prices.

If the government was successful in breaking up the gas companies....my general expectation is that the government would wake up in twelve months to realize they'd made a bigger mess of the fuel escalation, and that diesel was now around 2.70 Euro a liter, and E-10 was around 2.60 Euro a liter.  Yeah, very crappy prices, indeed.

And while all of this is going on.....you just have to wonder about electricity prices in Germany, as the E-car generation progresses along.  

How quick will this dismantle gas companies idea occur?  I'd say the political folks  leave in two weeks for their summer vacation.  Once they return (mid-August)....the idea will either be tossed, or implemented....probably in a matter of 90 days.  Lawsuits will occur, and court action might happen by December.  

Ought to be exciting times for the inflation business.  

Out and About

 I ended up in downtown Wiesbaden today (Sunday).  Over a 2.5 hour walk, coffee sitting, with a beer pause.....I took note of the surroundings.

Yes, there's a few mentally disturbed folks walking around that you probably wouldn't have noticed in the 1990s.   There was the guy with the motorcycle helmet on (in 30 C/86 F temperature).....who is gyrating about every fourth step and does some weird shuffle like a dance. 

Yes, there was the guy who was heavily clad in winter gear and probably working hard for dehydration and a heat-stroke.

Yes, there was the half-clothed retiree lady who stopped and tried to have a five-minute conversation on the street with people.....fussing over kids/lack of respect.

Yes, there was the bag-lady with a shopping cart loaded with personal items....lounging on a bench.

Yes, there was the five or six guys sleeping on concrete and recovering from a morning beer (or two, or three).

I gazed at the city police blotter in the past hour.....a ambulance crew had a return trip halted yesterday....seeing some guy laying on the sidewalk in town...'looking' dead.

Ambulance crew stopped and started to render emergency care.  Well...guy jumps up....feeling threatened....started beating on the ambulance crew and a police team had to come and settle things.

Just drunk and laying there was the police judgement.....but involved an assault effort to reach that decision.  

It's just not the same town it was in the 1980s.

Rounding Up German News

 1.  The German Chancellor (Scholz) rounded up a two-day visit to the Balkans region.  Lot of speeches....lot of chit-chat.  

2.  Lot chatter around food prices....noticed a Focus piece discussing individual items.  In a 2-month period, organic butter went from 2.29 Euro to 2.99 Euro.  Same period, salami went from 1.39 Euro to 1.79 Euro.  Oatmeal is up 17-percent.  Toilet paper is up 14.5-percent.  Orange juice up 14.4-percent.  

So here's the thing.....that's just over two months, and you have to expect a continue trend for all of these for June, July and August.

3.  Regionally.....at least in Hessen, lot of food catering companies/restaurants are looking for employees.  At least 60-percent (at least HR news says this) are actively looking for skilled people for the trade.

Recovering from Covid spiral?  About three out of four businesses say they have a pretty healthy situation presently.

4.  N-TV had an update on this Ham University attack. This 34-year-old guy responsible for the attack....was that morning at a mental clinic, and left.  Authorities more or less....say he suffers from serious mental issues (they used the word 'for years').

From the four wounded?  One is in pretty serious condition.

So you read through the news piece and there's this one odd aspect.  Police went to the guy's apartment.....doing a raid after the attack....find various psychotropic drugs in his place.  It would appear he was mixing and matching....trying to treat himself.  

What the police say....on this particular morning....he felt people were after him....trying to kill him.  

Car Chatter

 Via Focus article.....SPD Party elements are discussing two harsh realities: (1) speed limits for a temporary period, and (2) Sunday banned driving.  Both were help in some minor way with the Russian oil chaos.

Public sentiment?  Well....on banned Sunday driving.....that was done for a brief period in the 1970s (gas crisis) and Germans probably would accept this for a couple of months.  I don't think they'd agree to this for an entire year.  

The speed limit?  There's been continual chatter over autobahn and regular road limits.  Autobahn limit would be suggested at 130 kph, and state roads at 90 kph.  If you asked me over public sentiment....if you said this was a six month deal....the majority would probably accept the autobahn limit.....but I'm not so sure about the state road limit.

The logical problem.....with the E-car mix?  Well....why would they have to play along with the gas-crowd being forbidden Sunday driving?  The same argument would arise over the speed limit and E-cars.

So, prepare for this to be a top five discussion as the summer vacation period ends, and probably some six-month long mandate to occur.

Rounding Up The German News

 1.  Gas tax discount working?  Well....no.  Gas (E10) this morning is around 1.97 Euro per liter at most local stations.  

Government now says it's going to view the 'profits' of oil companies/gas stations, and use some government law to subject them to an excess profit tax.  Best guess here?

Fuel has probably gone to another level, and I expect by the end of August....the relief price of gas will be near 2.10....meaning on 1 September...it'll flip to 2.42 Euro and massive shock waves will occur.

2.  Shooting in Bienenbüttel (Lower Saxony)?

What the police say....shoots heard around noon on Friday at one house.  Police arrive.....three dead.

From they say....an argument started up (no one says over what)....older guy (mid-80s) owned weapons and apparently shot his neighbor (60s) and his wife (60s), then shot himself.  Probably a decade-long feud.  

3.  Another school attack?

What the police say here....up at the University of Hamm (NW part of Germany)....mid-30s guy who was considered to be under some type of mental illness....stabbed a total of four people.  

Other students stepped in and held the guy until the police arrived.  The four wounded?  All alive but one is in extremely bad condition.  

Student attacker?  Well...they say the guy lived in the dorm but was age 34. What triggered the aggressive nature?  Unknown.