Back in January, I would have put the odds at 1-percent. The SPD won the September 2021 election...marginally, and the coalition is built upon two partners (Greens, FDP).
There's this funny topic coming up....how to handle the Covid stuff, when it pops up in October. Closures again? The FDP is fairly negative about bringing back closures. The Greens? They might be supportive of closures, but are aware that they've passed the SPD in public support, and a new election would be a great thing for them.
Timing of this collapse? Well....in my scenario, I would say this would come up toward late August/late September....as the Covid rules are openly discussed for the fall. If the FDP says no to all things.....a collapse would be likely to occur.
New election? Under this gimmick.....the SPD would be given a month to form a new government. It's possible that they might approach the CDU as a new partner. The CDU might respond.....fine, but we want the Chancellor position (yeah, that's a shocker).
This would avoid a whole new election and bring Scholz out of the Chancellor job. Being a negative to the public? The Greens are doing a pretty good job presently, and the public might not be supportive of a CDU-SPD government.
If there were a new election? The CDU would get 32-percent of the vote....thus winning, and the Greens would be able to get around 25-percent....so a new government could form with the CDU and Greens.
Odds of this? It ought to be 10-percent or less.
If you asked most Germans in a bar setting....I think the majority would say that there's nothing much going on with confidence building....between the war, Covid, the economy, spiraling costs, etc. But an out-of-cycle election is usually not a confidence-building mechanism....based on German history.
UPDATE: I noticed a weekend poll was done and reveals that around 41-percent of Germans think an early federal election is possible. It's a hefty number and a bit surprising.
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