Lot of chatter this AM via German public TV (ARD/www.tagesschau.de)....over the Kaliningrad/Lithuania business.
So there is a blocked railway situation which Russia would normally bring 'goods' into Kaliningrad. One and only one railway.
Some goods (steel/construction materials) in the mix....would normally flow through. EU sanctions say 'no'. Food is not a problem.
So Russia says it's being 'threatened'.
What happens next? Unknown. Russia could supply the steel by freighter....would be a added degree of frustration. They also could mount some offensive group up in the Lithuania region. Belarus in the mix? Well....if you pull up the map....Russia is NOT next to Lithuania.
My humble belief is that the Russians would want the Belarus government to make a threat, and possibly put troops up against the border. Belarus interested in some military stuff? I seriously doubt it.
So, here's the odd factor....there's various NATO (German included) military groups in the Baltic/Poland area. It's not a vast force....but it's more than enough to take on what weak military effort that the Belarus folks might try to create.
If you were asking me....is all this an intentional 'gimmick' to get to another step....causing Putin to bring another force to the west and face Lithuania? I'd say that's what it looks like.
The Belarus leadership is probably looking at this, and asking themselves....do we really want any part of this Putin adventure?
So....over the next two weeks....it might be worth watching as to how Putin now reacts, and if Belarus gets dumped into some NATO campaign.
No comments:
Post a Comment