My own observations over the 'war':
1. I don't anything halting/ending until Putin is dead. Figure some 10-day 'Jesus-is-dead' event over Russia as the legendary Putin is announced dead and some massive funeral is arranged.
2. This period will be a quiet-period, with no military action taking place.
3. None of this will occur in 2022 (I'm suggesting his health is in decline but it's nothing to occur in the next six months).
4. Whoever emerges as Putin II....will try to arrange a talks-event and just say the 'war' should end....Russia take the far east section of Ukraine, and no war-crimes possible. Ukraine? It will decline, and six additional months will occur.
5. The bigger of all problems.....there's a massive amount of negative interest by the Russian conscripts to continue the war, and some chatter in the Ukraine of certain units which refuse to take actions.
The German energy problem?
1. Rumor has it that some coal plants will continue, and the suggestion of them shutting down over the next five years? It'll just halt.....they will remain on production of power. Key problem? How do you plan maintenance around this situation?
2. The nuke plants? They were planned to shut down at the end of 2022, and there's only enough 'rods' around to handle the first quarter of 2023. The plants already have shut-down plans, and the government allocated the shut-down.
3. As for heating in homes being an issue? The government will write a regulation and home temperatures will range around 18 C for daytime temperature....by late in 2022. Expect this to repeat in the winter of 2023, and probably 2024.
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