Monday, June 27, 2022

Russia About To Default?

 Well....yeah.

For the first time since the Czar went away....there's foreign debt, and they haven't paid the interest payment.  Final moment?  Tonight.

Amount we are talking about?  29 million Euro for a 2036 gov't bond, and 71 million dollars for a second bond (for 2026).

My humble belief?  It's Putin's decision and he sees no reason to waste what remaining funds exist.

Odds of Russia getting another loan in the next twenty years?  At the pace of things....zero.

Most Russians (I think) will say it doesn't matter.

Western businesses operating there?  None, and that will be the future situation for several decades.

The best way to describe the future.....they will be like Cuba in some ways, and tourism will be mostly non-existent.  If you were a Russian and disgruntled?  You'd leave, and I'd take a guess that 250,000 Russians a year will quietly exit over the next decade. 

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