Thursday, May 28, 2020

Looking Back at Germany, the Coronavirus, and April

April becomes this interesting month for Germany and Corona.

1.  On the first, it's the Health Minister (Spahn) that forbids flights from Iran into Germany (not the Chancellor or state Premier Presidents)....because of the virus issues in Iran.

2.  The 2nd of April arrives, and the RKI folks now stand up and suggest that even if you don't have symptoms....you should now wear a mask.  It goes against virtually everything they said in March, but no one argues.

3.  It's here in this first week of April that the federal authorities are telling departments to more closely guard information that journalists ask for.  Journalists are now becoming more inquisitive and pointed about things they are being told.  It looks bad for the state and federal authorities via these articles.

4.  Around the 7th, an App is released as a test vehicle.  It basically tracks you, and the potential to spread viruses.  Max users?  They needed 100,000 to test upon, and reach 50,000 on the first day of release.

5.  There's model data released around the 9th, which suggests that 2-percent of the German population (83-million) have the virus in some way (vast majority showing little to no symptoms).  This model probably didn't have any true factual nature, but it generated a fair amount of chatter.

6.  13 April comes and Leopoldina (the national science folks of Germany) publishes a paper on the virus.  It carries a lot of weight.  They suggest a lot of things....but the chief thing that people notice....they strongly urge schools and colleges to reopen, with stringent hygiene standards in place.  Merkel basically acknowledges the report, and says it'll trigger government meetings over the ban rules.

7.  Two days pass after this paper comes out from Leopoldina.  Big meeting with the Chancellor and Premier-Presidents.  Lot of chat.  Some minor agreements.  Small business operations can open (big rules attached).  Date for this?  20 April.  This includes car dealers, book stores, etc. 

Chatter of this meeting then goes to schools.  4 May is listed as their open date, but lot of ban rules attached to this.

Social distancing?  Still to be enforced.  Merkel says that masks will likely be forced upon everyone....mandatory deal, as part of opening things up. 

8.  16 April arrives, and it's announced by Bavaria....the Oktoberfest might be cancelled.  Four days pass, and it is canceled for September.  Lot of shock.  Serious economic punch to Munich.  Means several billion Euro lost for the city and concessions.

9.  20 April comes now...with shops open.  What you notice is that state by state....everyone has a different set of rules and expectations. 

10.  The week of 27 April is a curious period.  You start to see various demonstrations starting up....suggestions of conspiracy litter the social media networks.  It would be correct to say that 10 to 20 percent of Germans have lost patience with the ban rules and the government's stringent 'games'.  This invites the Channel One/Two folks to say that fake news is inventing the conspiracy stuff. 

11.  30 May comes, and this big announcement that parks, and museums are to be opened (Chancellor is the person who says this, not the Premier Presidents).  Churches can open at this point, but only with social distancing rules as part of the service. 

I call April the recovery month because the virus had peaked out, and reproduction numbers were rapidly decreasing. 

It is obvious by the end of the month....that patience by people over the shutdown and ban rules had hit the maximum point.  At the end of the month....they had to move forward, in minor steps. 

The Chancellor probably had more to do with engaging the Premier-Presidents, and getting them to agree to central views.  Less action by the Health Minister over the whole month. 

New cases per day....it was rapidly dropping as each week of April went by.

Total deaths by the end of the month?  6,200 roughly.  The majority out of three states....Bavaria, NRW and Baden-Wurttemberg. 

No comments: