Well, to get this straight, the SPD is the winner of the election and can form the next government.
Plan A? It'd be a SPD-Green-FDP coalition.
If plan A fails? It'd be a SPD-CDU-CSU coalition.
If plan B fails? The SPD has no way to make up any other government. The President would turn to the CDU-CSU folks and ask....can you form a government (giving them around 30 days). They'd go to the Greens-FDP group and lay out a deal.
If coalition talks Plan 'C' fails?
Based on the Constitution, the President would call for a new election (probably in the timeframe of mid-March). Odds of this? I'd say around a one-in-a-thousand chance. It shouldn't go to that extreme.
Presently, I'd give a 95-percent chance that the SPD will work up a deal with the Greens-FDP situation.
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